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EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2


john999boy

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Here we go - more backsliding when reality strikes. This time "it should be possible for the UK to secure an agreement with Europol - the EU intelligence agency - that provides the same benefits as now."

What in the world does Brexit mean? Everything the same as before because anything else is stupid? YEP

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We're in a lose-lose position right now.

 

The referendum means that the government is (or should really be) committee to delivering an exit from European governance and law. But the Tories know now that in doing that things are going to get bad, possibly very bad for quite a long time. I don't for a minute thing the Tories actually give a **** about that, what they are worried about is getting the blame for it.

 

The EU should be putting forward an alternative view of how wonderful it'll be to stay. That it'll reform and really they'll sort out or help to sort out a lot of the problems worried about by the exiters. But no , Junkers et al are going teh easy road, make the exit hellish, make the suffering last and keep the rest of the population under the heel. So we're ****ed there too.

 

Might as well bend over and become the 51st state after all.

 

Welcome to Airstrip one

 

raf,750x1000,075,t,101010:01c5ca27c6.u1.

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35 minutes ago, Aspman said:

 

The EU should be putting forward an alternative view of how wonderful it'll be to stay.

People are blind if they want to be - take the Welsh town who voted to leave - everything there that is good was paid for by the EU - how big did the sign need to be?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale

3000.thumb.jpg.1c1684325003df0ee09872d23aea8a9c.jpg

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1 hour ago, S00perb said:

Here we go - more backsliding when reality strikes. This time "it should be possible for the UK to secure an agreement with Europol - the EU intelligence agency - that provides the same benefits as now."

What in the world does Brexit mean? Everything the same as before because anything else is stupid? YEP

 

Might be worth a read 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/22/heres-why-europe-cant-police-terrorism-very-well/?utm_term=.f728b95ed3d8

 

Europe wants more “product” from America’s intelligence Leviathan, but less collection. Americans and Europeans sometimes act as if they’re on different teams. This was the path to Brussels. EU wants less surveillance that gathers information but expects other agencies to provide it. With the UK out of the EU they will lose the benefit of GCHQ and their intelligence gathering capabilities. This just leaves France and to a much lesser effect Germany who are tied up in their own legislation.

 

https://blogs.kcl.ac.uk/ksjppl/2017/03/05/explaining-the-eus-ineffectiveness-as-an-international-actor-in-countering-terrorism/

 

Other countries outside the EU law enforcement work with Europol through operational agreements such as the FBI. If the EU doesn't want Europol to have more information then that is down to them. 

Edited by CWARD
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2 hours ago, CWARD said:

 

Might be worth a read 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/22/heres-why-europe-cant-police-terrorism-very-well/?utm_term=.f728b95ed3d8

 

Europe wants more “product” from America’s intelligence Leviathan, but less collection. Americans and Europeans sometimes act as if they’re on different teams. This was the path to Brussels. EU wants less surveillance that gathers information but expects other agencies to provide it. With the UK out of the EU they will lose the benefit of GCHQ and their intelligence gathering capabilities. This just leaves France and to a much lesser effect Germany who are tied up in their own legislation.

 

https://blogs.kcl.ac.uk/ksjppl/2017/03/05/explaining-the-eus-ineffectiveness-as-an-international-actor-in-countering-terrorism/

 

Other countries outside the EU law enforcement work with Europol through operational agreements such as the FBI. If the EU doesn't want Europol to have more information then that is down to them. 

 

Back to the "they need us more than we need them" - that is absolutely delusional and if the decision makers believe this, it is what will bring on a massive recession and we will have NO ONE to help us out when that comes.

.

 

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10 hours ago, Headinawayoffski said:

Theresa will no doubt be able to promise The Donald something special on his State visit to the UK, some honour or another from HRH Queen Elizabeth II,

 

 

FFS don't leave him in a room on his own with the Queen!!!!!

 

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1 hour ago, S00perb said:

 

Back to the "they need us more than we need them" - that is absolutely delusional and if the decision makers believe this, it is what will bring on a massive recession and we will have NO ONE to help us out when that comes.

.

 

 

As far is intelligence gathering is concerned that is true, they need us more than we need their help. 

On the economy and trading business will always prevail. It may take time before it does and that is what the negotiations should aim to facilitate sooner rather than later to ensure a return to trading with minimal disruption. Business doesn't like to be disrupted or have any loss of sales.

At the end of the day we need to buy stuff from the EU whilst selling things to them too. The same is true with the EU. 

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I like what i have heard from the Canadian Prime Minister to Boeing.    Why would we buy from someone taking us to court. (paraphrase)

 

Boeing are probably correct that Planes could be sold at less than cost price with the UK & Canadian Government funding the Aircraft Builders Bombardier.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41280200 

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2 hours ago, CWARD said:

 

As far is intelligence gathering is concerned that is true, they need us more than we need their help. 

On the economy and trading business will always prevail. It may take time before it does and that is what the negotiations should aim to facilitate sooner rather than later to ensure a return to trading with minimal disruption. Business doesn't like to be disrupted or have any loss of sales.

At the end of the day we need to buy stuff from the EU whilst selling things to them too. The same is true with the EU. 

You have been in the military and (hopefully) know what intelligence means, I have worked with them and I certainly know what it means. For those that are not enlightened, you start at GCHQ on  £17,539 - now what do you think your going to get for those wages? - as Adrian Cronauer so beautifully put it in Good Morning Vietnam "Military intelligence? There's a contradiction in terms"

The EU won't miss anything from those monkeys.

"business will always prevail" - you have a short memory - 27,000 UK businesses went bust in the recession. 27,000!!!! That was a recession that the world went through (though if you listened to the Cons it was somehow all Labours fault). When the world goes through a recession we all suffered (apart from the rich of course), no one country suffered much more than others (apart from Iceland who cottoned on to what we were trying to do to them just in time). But if we do this to ourselves and threaten the world in our stupid actions, they will turn their backs on us, they won't want to be brought down with us.

The French didn't want us in the EU, why? They were booming, as was the rest of Europe. The UK was not and they didn't want a declining economy in their club. Many of the French doubted the sincerity of the British in the vision of the EU and weren't they right? They won't be sorry to see us go.

The Germans have far more problems on their plate; we are a moaning annoying distraction; well rid of us.

Don't expect the Polish government to think twice - we have broken more promises to them than is ever forgiveable.

The EU will close ranks and survive.

The UK? How exactly? Recession, bad deals with countries that know we are ion th ropes?

What we won't forget is that Cameron promised a referendum JUST to get in control of his party. Bailed when just 37% of the electorate didn't go his way. TMay invoked article 50 and bribed the Unionists to vote with her using a money tree she said didn't exist.

How long our memories will be on these issues remains to be seen.

 

 

 

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Brexit William Jefferson Hague, Baron Hague of Richmond warns over Tory infighting:

"it is now 15 months since the referendum, and high time that all members of the government were able to express themselves on this subject in the same way as each other, putting forward the same points, as part of an agreed plan. If not, there will be no point Conservatives discussing who is going to be the foreign secretary, chancellor or prime minister in the coming years, because Jeremy Corbyn will be prime minister,"

 

Music to my ears

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The main western intelligence services are the US and UK. That relationship pretty much transcends any political relationship and any party. Trump has done his best to screw it up but despite that our guys to talk to their guys and vice versa.

 

After that there is the 5 Eyes group with Canada, Australia and New Zealand (no EU countries).

Then it's France and Germany doesn't come in to the list for a long while. Germany has historical hangups from the Stazi.

 

But even with Brexit we will work with EU countries on intelligence. That stuff operates outside the petty trading agreements.

 

So any politician waving around threats of withholding intelligence is bull****ting. The intelligence services will pretty much ignore them to get the job done.

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9 hours ago, S00perb said:

You have been in the military and (hopefully) know what intelligence means, I have worked with them and I certainly know what it means. For those that are not enlightened, you start at GCHQ on  £17,539 - now what do you think your going to get for those wages? - as Adrian Cronauer so beautifully put it in Good Morning Vietnam "Military intelligence? There's a contradiction in terms"

The EU won't miss anything from those monkeys.

 

Your intelligence on starting salaries seems a little off.

"Salary

Starting salaries for the three agencies, GCHQ, MI5 and MI6, are in the region of £25,000 to £30,000 plus benefits.

There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with the base-salary levels for the next two grades around £35,000 and then £40,000 after five to ten years' service. For all grades there are incremental annual increases in pay, plus bonus payment opportunities.

Income figures are intended as a guide only."

Not sure how this compares with other countries but I wouldn't imagine them to be high earnings either. This is all irrelevant as the people recruited and attracted to these jobs is for the work involved rather than the salary. If they want to rely on intelligence from France, a little bit from Germany and then what the other can contribute without first leaking it then they are welcome. Intelligence sharing is mutually beneficial to argue any different is very naive. 

 

The EU can close ranks and shut us off with it they will closing a 65 million population and €2.6 trillion market. Nowhere for them to expand as they are already butting up against Russia and even countries like Bulgaria and Romania chumming up to Russia and getting more benefits from them than the EU. Belarus is pro Russian and Ukraine got sweet FA assistance from the EU in 2014 regardless of what they said. With a basket case like the Ukraine would they actually want them in the EU and the additional tensions with Russia. That leaves the former Yugoslavia countries which come with a whole load more problems and another money pit. Good luck in plugging that whole in their revenues. 

The Polish are so happy with the EU at the moment with Macron trying to prevent the free movement of cheap labour (pretty ironic since that was part of the Brexit campaign) and fighting against their laws being overridden. Poland with the soon to be 5th largest population 8th largest GDP will become a pain in the neck of the EU if they try to ignore them, especially with their close ties to German manufacturing. 

http://www.politico.eu/article/poland-isolated-by-emmanuel-macron-central-european-offensive-posted-workers/

http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/europe_and_its_discontents_polands_collision_course_with_the_eu_7220

"The British approach to Europe appealed to PiS, but the party took issue with London’s ambition to reduce the EU budget and the British desire to limit labour migration from EU countries and alter the social rights of EU citizens already living in the UK. Despite this, PiS saw in the UK an ally that could help it to jointly change the balance of power in the EU and work towards a new model that would limit the EU to being a union of sovereign states."

Not all a bed of roses for the EU and we've not even mentioned Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. A smooth and mutually beneficial transition would be in their interests too. Making an example of the UK which will of course create suffering in the EU too will only demonstrate that the EU do not listen to the population but only their political ambitions which just cause further unrest.  

 

There are interesting times ahead and it doesn't have to be bad deals to survive outside the EU. Just remember that the EU has already signed up to CETA which is bad deal opening them up to Canadian to operate international law on all goods and services they provide. This can also allow the US to do the same to the EU through Canadian subsidiaries. A spectacular home goal and no amount of EU spin detracts from this as they have weakened their protected market

"The revised CETA text confirms that the Tribunal shall only apply the agreement, in accordance with the principles of international law, when adjudicating upon claims submitted by investors. It cannot decide on matters of EU or Member State law." 

 

Quote

"business will always prevail" - you have a short memory - 27,000 UK businesses went bust in the recession. 27,000!!!! That was a recession that the world went through (though if you listened to the Cons it was somehow all Labours fault). When the world goes through a recession we all suffered (apart from the rich of course), no one country suffered much more than others (apart from Iceland who cottoned on to what we were trying to do to them just in time). But if we do this to ourselves and threaten the world in our stupid actions, they will turn their backs on us, they won't want to be brought down with us.

 

You may wish to read up on the warnings that were given at the time and the way Brown dismissed them as his economic bubble based on borrowing wouldn't burst.  

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jan/26/road-ruin-recession-individuals-economy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/3179505/Vince-Cable-Sage-of-the-credit-crunch-but-this-Liberal-Democrat-is-not-for-gloating.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-499079/VINCE-CABLE-Why-I-mauled-old-friend-Gordon-Brown.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/4808373/Gordon-Brown-helped-fuel-banking-crisis-FSA-head.html

Seems pretty damning against Gordon Brown who iirc was Labour. 

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Donald Trump Jr & Kellyann Cowan have given up their Secret Service Security protection, so that is nice, now instead of those escorting them overtly it will just be the Covert team having to track their every move, so no change there then.

 

Then there will be still The Donalds private covert team tracking his favourite son as usual as well as his official personal protection.

 

 

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GCHQ Salaries in Cheltenham, England | Indeed.co.uk

https://www.indeed.co.uk › GCHQ › Salaries › England

The average GCHQ salary ranges from approximately £17539 per year for Apprentice to £42929 per year for Senior Financial Accountant.

 

Head of GCHQ complains  that he is losing top staff to companies that can afford to pay them £100,000 packages in salaries and generous perks.

 

Daniel KeohaneResearch director at FRIDE

"Beyond the traditional guff of Britain playing Athens to America’s Rome, the partnership is alive mainly because of the close and privileged relationship between the UK and U.S. intelligence services. That remains special and should not be underestimated.

However, if recent trends in British foreign policy—falling defense spending, relative absence from key international security challenges, and moodiness toward the EU—continue, then those voices in Washington already questioning the UK’s relevance will surely strengthen in number and volume. And if the UK were to leave the EU, the country would become a useless ally for the United States."

 

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Quote

Even if 18 years later the EU has not yet proved as robust as Nato (let alone anything akin to a European army), and even though it would always be preferable to act with the United States, wouldn’t it be in the British interest to keep that strategic option?

Second, the UK – alongside France – is a deutsche mark of European defence, meaning it should lead EU military efforts. For example, the bilateral co-operation emerging from the 2010 Anglo-French Lancaster House treaties should set the standard for EU military co-operation. Moreover, because the UK is not a member of the euro zone or the Schengen passport-free travel area, leading on defence policy would increase London’s overall political influence in the EU.

Third, the UK could continue to ensure that the EU and Nato work better together. Stunted by more than a decade of Cypriot-Turkish disputes, European security today badly needs the two Brussels-based organisations to work more closely together.

Daniel Keohane -2016

 

Quote

The British exit from the EU is feeding into a general sense of uncertainty about the EU’s future. This uncertainty may be further exacerbated by US President Donald Trump, who has called into question both NATO’s and the EU’s viability. But irrespective of Brexit or the Trump administration’s actions, it is vital that France, Germany, and the UK continue to work closely together on European defense post-Brexit

 

Daniel Keohane -2017

 

I guess it depends on when you ask Daniel what he will quote. 

 

Also from Indeed on average salaries from GCHQ https://www.indeed.co.uk/cmp/Gchq/salaries with the highest reported salary of £123,000 for a consultant.  

You missed out "Salary information comes from 201 data points collected directly from employees, users, and past and present job advertisements on Indeed in the past 12 months." as Indeed are an employment agency and responsible for sole recruitment and HR so have limited information of the 5,564 employees at GCHQ, only the 201 data points! I would imagine the true pay scales are unknown and not available on Google :)

And just to repeat myself "This is all irrelevant as the people recruited and attracted to these jobs is for the work involved rather than the salary" someone who can easily be bought isn't the most appropriate person to be working on national security.  

 

 

 

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On 16/09/2017 at 23:07, Lee01 said:

The one that teaches people to obey orders without questioning them. Standard military practice for foot soldiers.
No use having a soldier who questions his orders going into combat, is it?
You think that way of thinking simply leaves a soldier when he's demobbed? 

Unfortunately this is turning out to be true. Give one man a title (officer, lord etc.) and the brainwashed man will obey.

Mind you, talk to an officer and he will really think things through, that's what he is trained to do.

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@S00perb It was pathetic and ignorant from Lee, I thought you could actually debate a subject. Guess I was wrong.   

 

Again if I was brain washed and simply following orders why have I voted out against the governments and EU's wishes at the time? Is that description not what you have done and simply plodding along doing as you're told?

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There is a major difference between being reactionary and being able to think freely. The army trains people to act in certain ways. You reacted just now, instinct, fast. That is what is trained. It's not an insult. It is an extreamly valuable commodity. You can't sail a ship by committee. In the UK it is not permitted to use PsyOps on recruits (unlike the USA where it is perfectly acceptable!), but what happens during basic training is borderline: Just the daily routine is a form of repetition with the aim to reduce your consciousness, that is important in order to control you and make you obedient and less likely to be defiant in the face of an order. 

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5 minutes ago, S00perb said:

There is a major difference between being reactionary and being able to think freely. The army trains people to act in certain ways. You reacted just now, instinct, fast. That is what is trained. It's not an insult. It is an extreamly valuable commodity. You can't sail a ship by committee. In the UK it is not permitted to use PsyOps on recruits (unlike the USA where it is perfectly acceptable!), but what happens during basic training is borderline: Just the daily routine is a form of repetition with the aim to reduce your consciousness, that is important in order to control you and make you obedient and less likely to be defiant in the face of an order. 

 

*******s. Lee intended it as in insult as did you. I guess your knowledge of basic training is from watching Full Metal Jacket and not experience.

 

I have spent nearly 3x more time as an accountant than a soldier (which I was not a foot soldier). Accountants treat everything with a professional scepticism hence why I question things rather than take things at face value. Given a problem I look for the best outcome and how that can be achieved which can be factor from both careers.

   

1 hour ago, S00perb said:

The one that teaches people to obey orders without questioning them. Standard military practice for foot soldiers.
No use having a soldier who questions his orders going into combat, is it?
You think that way of thinking simply leaves a soldier when he's demobbed? 

 

Many who I served with went into other services and risen to good ranks in the Police and Fire Service. I'm proud to acknowledge that two of my best mates are white hats in the Fire Service  one the lead training officer for the UK International Search And Rescue whilst the other is a brigade manager. The majority have gone on to do well for themselves many creating their own companies who I still deal. I know no who I served with or others who I have met since who would fit that bill and to use to describe myself or anyone else is just insulting, then or now.

 

Lee's ignorance I expected, your's I didn't.

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4 hours ago, CWARD said:

Lee's ignorance I expected, your's I didn't.

Thanks for that. :kiss:

There's a reason why Openreach recruit a hell of a lot of ex military. And it aint all because of their free thinking ;) 

Anyway. Happy to get off that subject as it's not really relevant is it.

What is relevant is that this whole Brexit malarkey's going tit5 up isn't it. 

You won. We lost. I won't get over it. I won't all of a sudden start 'talking the country up' as if that will help.

You won. Get on and deliver my box of fekking unicorns. Prove me wrong.

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2 minutes ago, CWARD said:

Lee don't you work for Openreach

 

Love you too, care in the community and all that. 

Indeed I do. But there's very few ex military who do the job I do. 
They are mostly cablers. A job that requires a lot of brute force and a degree of ignorance :) 

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Well suited to your job then. 

 

Out of all the ex forces I only know one who works for Open Reach. He hates it, constantly whinging about incompetent management. Also ranting for the last few weeks how they can't even sort out the connection for his new house. 

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Just now, CWARD said:

Well suited to your job then. 

 

Out of all the ex forces I only know one who works for Open Reach. He hates it, constantly whinging about incompetent management. Also ranting for the last few weeks how they can't even sort out the connection for his new house. 

Point. Missed. As per usual.

 

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