EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Rooted]

On your bike, you have loads of money, & you will be a long time dead, buy that nearer to London property. 

Where the flying duck can it be a bad investment.  Make it a house of multiple occupancy and rent out to your wealthy co-workers.

[lol-lol]

10 minutes ago, Headinawayoffski said:

On your bike, you have loads of money, & you will be a long time dead, buy that nearer to London property. 

Where the flying duck can it be a bad investment.  Make it a house of multiple occupancy and rent out to your wealthy co-workers.

 

I don't think it will be a collapse like the Aberdeen market as London is much more diverse than oil dependant Aberdeen but it is still a bad investment currently and buying further out ie North Essex, South Cambs, West Suffolk looks much more attractive, close to Stansted for the quick escape to the sun.  

Just a shame that the BREXIT vote damaged the value of British pound so much although even that was partially offset by that pushing the FTSE higher due to its earning and values being inversely GBP dependant.

 

Lots of signs emerging that BREXIT could be even more financially damaging that first thought, and costly with the BREXIT divorce bill.  Lots of tools in the UK government tool bag which i suspect they will need to use I reduce VAT back to the 15% or even 10% level to offset import duties and costs.    

[Rooted]

The Aberdeen market was ridiculous, as to collapsed, have you driven up the road recently or flown in, have you seen the new house building, 

all around, new villages etc, the Aberdeen Bypass, the New Conference centre.

 

10 years or so and Stonehaven will be the start of entering Aberdeen.

Edited 21 November, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[lol-lol]

Just now, Headinawayoffski said:

The Aberdeen market was ridiculous, as to collapsed, have you driven up the road recently or flown in, have you seen the new house building, 

all around, new villages etc, the Aberdeen Bypass, the New Conference centre.

 

Have not been to our Aberdeen office ie Dyce and Porthleven, for a few months though they do want me to go up there again, the traffic into the town centre was so bad.  Oil price has been creeping up in USD terms, shame Scotland banned fracking which could be a major new industry going by the States exploitation of it.     Think there will be a bounce and there is always the other liquid golds ie beer and whisky.

 

Seen your first snow?  I have spent to many hours waiting for flights at Dyce so I always dread getting the flight back out, might drive and visit the Glasgow office in the rounds.  

[Rooted]

Seen some snow last week and last night along the Deeside road.   Big changes around the Airport.

Luckily Hotel Prices dropping now there are some decent competition. Still not enough affordable houses.

[S00perb]

3 hours ago, wonkyewok said:

..........And if we stop having free movement of EU labour then wages might rise at the lower end for UK residents.

Unfortunately the businesses have just got used to paying carp wages. They just don't build into the plans that they need to offer more money. We have the lowest unemployment in decades and still the employers won't raise wages. The first ones that do, become uncompetitive.

The problem is, the UKs productivity is one of the lowest in the G20 (see below) - that basically means we don't get more out of the work that is done, compared with other nations. Unless this improves we can't afford to increase wages. With Brexit we would be worse off even if our productivity was good. Put both together and we head for a sheeite storm.

Sure, I work with Polish IT programmers, they are highly qualified and get paid quite well, but they are staying, they own houses, have British kids and have been here long enough to stay. We just don't train quality IT people in the numbers we need.

The migrant workers, the ones that pick our food, will still be needed - you just won't find any British born people to do the job!

You want highly motivated, do anything to improve your lot, attitude? - find yourself an immigrant family who have given up everything to make a better life for their children. What would it take for you to give up everything? And how hard would you work to make that move worth it? Lose that attitude and productivity goes down.

 

G20 productivity (the score for the Netherlands has to be the strongest argument for keeping the ban on cannabis I have ever seen)

Country	Last
Australia	102.20
Brazil	140.43
Canada	109.45
Euro Area	104.20
France	112.82
Germany	105.90
Italy	106.70
Japan	103.90
Mexico	105.10
Netherlands	32.45
Russia	-0.20
South Korea	97.60
Spain	105.70
Switzerland	100.84
United Kingdom	100.80
United States	108.87

[CWARD]

 

8 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

In GBP terms London prices are rising less (2.5% pa) than UK inflation (3% CPI-4% RPI) so are falling in real terms.

If you price them in Euros or US dollars, values that are 5 to 10 times more important on a worldwide stage, the values have taken an absolute pasting with the future looking even worse, maybe 2% or less rise.   

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/september2017#house-price-index-by-english-region

 

Much as I would like to buy a house closer to my London work centres I would not do so as it is a bad investment until the market finds the bottom which is likely not to be for another half to full decade after the BREXIT affect have stabilized.  

 

Everyone looks at the US or Euro price of the home they want before buying a house  Most are thankful that they can actually scrape together the deposit so they can get their foot on the housing ladder. Even with zero growth in the housing market most would prefer it to renting and when the mortgage is repaid they have an asset. The alternative to pay every increasing rents until the day you die isn't quite so attractive.

Looking at property as purely an investment is the reason why the housing is over inflated in the first place. This in turn boosts land values, materials, trade rates and everything else connected to the housing market. In previous posts you have moaned about the lack of social housing but guess what the costs of building them will be linked to.   

[@Lee]

[S00perb]

Companies moving jobs or investment from the U.K. because of Brexit: (CNN)

UBS

HSBC (Paris, France)

JPMorgan Chase

Goldman Sachs

Lloyds of London (Brussels, Belgium)

Deutsche Bank (Frankfurt, Germany)

Credit Suisse

Nestle (Poland)

Ryanair

EasyJet (Vienna, Austria)

Nomura (Frankfurt, Germany)

Citigroup (Frankfurt, Germany)

Bank of America (Dublin, Ireland)

Standard Chartered (Frankfurt, Germany)

Royal Bank of Scotland (Amsterdam)

[S00perb]

Bit of Brexit bad news and 6 of the national papers decide to focus on bakeoff and supermarket tests! - Head in sand time

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-42060639

 

[Rooted]

^^^ They are smart, the point being made for people reading The Sun, Mirror, Express etc,

he will not just get to walk away, no prenuptial, so property bought and owned might stay with one of the parties, 

and financial agreements entered into will be costing the person that was party to them might well cost them from the outset with an agreed amount and them still paying out to the other into the future.

[S00perb]

Are you saying they are trying to explain brexit by using headlines about some stupid TV show? What next, the Muppets explain the Schengen Agreement?

Edited 21 November, 2017 by S00perb

[@Lee]

13 hours ago, skomaz said:

 

same old same old rants...   so doesnt seem to be much point posting really as it aint going to change things is it?

Oh I agree. The same old rants as project fear unfolds as project fact.
Leave were warned about what would happen so now it's more 'we told you so'.

[Rooted]

They could not get 28 to agree on the Muppets, or The Simpsons, or even Tin Tin, so they went with Continental Where is Wally?

 

[skomaz]

13 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

In GBP terms London prices are rising less (2.5% pa) than UK inflation (3% CPI-4% RPI) so are falling in real terms.

If you price them in Euros or US dollars, values that are 5 to 10 times more important on a worldwide stage, the values have taken an absolute pasting with the future looking even worse, maybe 2% or less rise.   

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/september2017#house-price-index-by-english-region

 

Much as I would like to buy a house closer to my London work centres I would not do so as it is a bad investment until the market finds the bottom which is likely not to be for another half to full decade after the BREXIT affect have stabilized.  

 

Make up your mind will you - not long ago on another thread you were complaining that house prices were continuing to rise and at rates well above inflation...   now you are complaining that they are falling in real terms as they are rising below inflation...   you can't have it both ways so which is it you actually want??????

[lol-lol]

8 hours ago, skomaz said:

 

Make up your mind will you - not long ago on another thread you were complaining that house prices were continuing to rise and at rates well above inflation...   now you are complaining that they are falling in real terms as they are rising below inflation...   you can't have it both ways so which is it you actually want??????

 

Suggest you read the post again.  London is the only region currently which is rising less than inflation according to the ONS link.  The worry is that UK wealth usually emanates from London and we get either positive or negative ripples from London out to the regions.  Back during the Cons last full session in parliament ie 1992-1997, the housing market suffered a drop of between a quarter to a third. Combined that with the UK going 5 billion pounds a month further in to national debt over the last 90 months it will be interesting to see what the Chancellor does in the budget tomorrow to try and deal with all these issues, annual deficit, offshore tax evasion.   Rumour of a penny or two per litre on diesel, we will soon know.  

Another meeting with Department of International Trade today and an opportunity to let them know how the customs systems will need to cope with all the extra customs declarations, origin certification, import duties collection.    

[lol-lol]

Just watched Justice League and thought how much the old Lenard Cohen song "Everybody knows " suits BREXIT...

 

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded,   Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed,  Everybody knows the war is over, Everybody knows the good guys lost,  Everybody knows the fight was fixed, The poor stay poor, the rich get rich

 

That's how it goes, Everybody knows, Everybody knows that the boat is leaking, Everybody knows that the captain lied, Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died, Everybody talking to their pockets,   Everybody wants a box of chocolates, And a long-stem rose
Everybody knows,Everybody knows that you love me baby, Everybody knows that you really do,    Everybody knows that you've been faithful, Ah, give or take a night or two
Everybody knows you've been discreet, But there were so many people you just had to meet Without your clothes
And everybody knows, Everybody knows, everybody knows, That's how it goes, Everybody knows, Everybody knows, everybody knows, That's how it goes

 

Everybody knows,  And everybody knows that it's now or never, Everybody knows that it's me or you,  And everybody knows that you live forever ,  Ah, when you've done a line or two
Everybody knows the deal is rotten, Old Black Joe's still pickin' cotton  ,  For your ribbons and bows, And everybody knows,  And everybody knows that the Plague is coming
Everybody knows that it's moving fast , Everybody knows that the naked man and woman,   Are just a shining artifact of the past,  Everybody knows the scene is dead,   But there's gonna be a meter on your bed,   That will disclose

 

What everybody knows,  And everybody knows that you're in trouble,   Everybody knows what you've been through,  From the bloody cross on top of Calvary,   To the beach of Malibu,  Everybody knows it's coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart ,    Before it blows ,     And everybody knows

 

  

Edited 21 November, 2017 by lol-lol

[CWARD]

Everybody knows written by Leonard Cohen in 1988 and the fact you can still relate it today nearly 30 years later shows how little has changed 

 

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

 

Decades later of being told that we've never had it so good with the EU and Lol-lol can still draw comparisons, quite ironic really.

 

I'll leave you with Europe and the Final Countdown

 

[Rooted]

"No deal is better than a bad deal!".

 

Remember that, and 'Better out than in',  or Better Together.  You decided when you voted.

 

 

[S00perb]

So todays budget seems to show Hammond knows there will be NO savings from leaving the EU. Where is all that extra cash we were meant to be saving? He seems to be saying we will have LESS money, not more!

If you blinked you may have missed him saying £14.8bn headroom (for spending or tax cuts) forecast for 2021/22. That's about £11bn less than forecast last time! BUT we were promised we would have MORE not less!!!

He is putting aside billions for some sort of brexit hard times fund - its not meant to be hard - we were sold freedom and prosperity!

• Growth forecast for 2017 downgraded from 2% to 1.5%
• GDP downgraded to 1.4% and then 1.3%
• Productivity growth and business investment also revised down
• Debt will peak at 86.5% of GDP this year!!!!!!

Where is the brexit feelgood factor? Where is all the extra money?

I am thinking it won't be coming anytime - let alone anytime soon

[gadgetman]

The government will have met with business leaders and know the score and their concerns, as well as their red flags for staying during the negotiations v how negotiations are actually going. 

 

The people who will be hit hardest are the areas in the north who voted overwhelmingly to leave. 

 

The problem is so far they haven't seen what is going to hit them, or know what is happening but believe the claims we'll actually be better off. 

 

 

There really will be serious unrest when reality bites. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves 

[Rooted]

34 Billion a year is it or more on Overseas Aid, maybe needs revised for India maybe the 2 million a week to Zimbabwe.

The disaster relief funding & help were real poverty exists due to the EU / UK / USA backing wars is needed but other schemes need looked at.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39658907 

 

Then Trident Replacement as a Job creation scheme needs looking at and maybe the USA need to review the price of leasing the facilities from them to 

allow them to cause the worlds refugee crisis with war mongering rather than peace keeping.

Edited 22 November, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[gadgetman]

 

[S00perb]

14 minutes ago, Headinawayoffski said:

34 Billion a year is it or more on Overseas Aid,

 

The five biggest myths surrounding overseas aid

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-five-biggest-myths-surrounding-overseas-aid-9691982.html

[S00perb]

9 minutes ago, gadgetman said:

 

 

They knew from day one that this would be an issue - why hjave they not come up with a sensible plan yet?