Interesting article in Autoexpress and other motoring sources:-

As pointed out most diesel Europe uses comes from the US and they might not be so keen to sell it us rather than Chinese etc!

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Threat of diesel rationing in Europe

At the homepage of the Stock Market Guide, (a service provided by the Swedish magazines Private Business and Business Weekly), is an excerpt from Gunnar Lindstedt’s article “Dark cloud over new oil” that was published in this week’s edition of Business Weekly. The headline they chose to use was “Threat of diesel rationing”. The following is a translation of the text:

(Article in Swedish: http://www.privataaffarer.se/ravaror/ransonering-av-diesel-hotar-324363)

Oil shortage: The world’s oil production has leveled off which is causing a diesel shortage in Europe. Kjell Aleklett, a professor at Uppsala University, says that people should drive gasoline-powered vehicles if they want to be driving ten years from now.

Despite dramatic changes in price the oil industry has not been able to increase production. At the same time there have been large changes in how much oil is actually available on the world market.

“Between 2005 and 2010, a period of five years, the oil exporting nations reduced their exports from 48 million barrels per day to 44 million barrels per day. That means that 4 million barrels per day have disappeared from the market”, says professor Kjell Aleklett at Uppsala University.

“Furthermore, China, India and other developing nations have increased their imports by a total of 3 million barrels per day. In other words, the oil available to the OECD-nations has decreased by 15% in 5 years.”

As the oil exporting nations in the Middle East keep more of their oil for domestic consumption while Asian nations are dramatically increasing their imports, the shortage of oil in the industrial world is becoming ever more apparent.

At the same time, oil consumption in this part of the world has declined since the economic crisis of 2008 – people are driving less and industry’s demand has decreased. But a sign of the developing oil shortages is the continued high oil price.

And high oil prices lead eventually to economic recession. The question is how high the prices can go. If the economy stagnates it will be difficult for the oil companies to recover expensive investments in difficult-to-produce oil. As a consequence, investment will decline.

This departure from the principle that increased demand leads to more investment and greater supply has already become manifest in terms of access to diesel fuel in Europe.

“At the moment the shortage of diesel in Europe is 30-40 million cubic metres”, says Michael Löw who is managing director of Preem.

(Preem is the biggest oil company in Sweden, with refining capacity of more than 18 million m3 of crude oil every year. Their two refineries are among the most modern, environmentally-friendly in Europe and the world, http://www.preem.se/templates/page____15.aspx)

The USA exports diesel fuel to Europe and we export gasoline to the USA. But if the Americans begin to drive more diesel vehicles then the shortage of diesel here will become even greater.

Since a large proportion of the diesel fuel is used by trucking to transport goods that are essential for society it may well happen that diesel for private motor cars must be rationed in future. From a political standpoint diesel-powered cars have been supported in Europe since they are regarded as more environmentally friendly. That measure will now hurt us.

“If you want to be certain that you can drive a car in ten year’s time (in Europe) then you should drive a gasoline-powered vehicle”, says Kjell Aleklett.

“In ten years diesel fuel in Europe will probably be rationed.”

The European refinery capacity for diesel production is far too small relative to the demand. But the oil industry nevertheless does not want to invest in new plant since the profit margins are low and the future outlook is uncertain.

“The (Swedish) government says that in 2030 our driving will be fossil fuel-free”, says Michael Löw.

“But since it takes at least 19 years to turn over the car fleet we should be buying electric vehicles from this point on which is not happening. The politicians are leaving us in a vacuum – shall we close down our activities or continue to invest?”

Aleklett’s Energy Mix

You'll have to fill a few more jerry cans then LoL.

I think I will file this story along with:

The world will end this year.

The south East of England will be a desert in 10 years time

Global warming will kill us off in the next 20 years

The Gulf stream will stop in 20 years and Britain will freeze over

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year.

MWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

You'll have to fill a few more jerry cans then LoL.

I think I will file this story along with:

The world will end this year.

The south East of England will be a desert in 10 years time

Global warming will kill us off in the next 20 years

The Gulf stream will stop in 20 years and Britain will freeze over

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year.

You'll have to fill a few more jerry cans then LoL. (Do not have a diesel yet and as pertrol comes from North Sea less likely to be a shortage. Was thinking of getting a diesel but makes one think about US supplying us/EU rather than China. Be patriotic and go with petrol).

I think I will file this story along with:

The world will end this year. (Always a chance)

The south East of England will be a desert in 10 years time (More likely to be flooded by a tidal surge than become a desert)

Global warming will kill us off in the next 20 years (not all of us just a few million in Bangladesh and similar areas)

The Gulf stream will stop in 20 years and Britain will freeze over (might do but we will simply get the weather of Eastern Canada)

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year. (Do not be ridiculous that is beyond the wildest imagination)

Edited 9 April, 201214 yr by lol

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year.

Now THAT is just ludicrous!

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year.

If the demand for diesel rises then refineries will retool to make more diesel as that is where the profits will be. Simples

What a load of tripe! Does this guy work for a gasoline refinery by any chance?

What a load of tripe! Does this guy work for a gasoline refinery by any chance?

+1.

Was just going to post the same after reading the the original article.

More tripe - this will definitely get the scare mongers going, hope the Daily Mail don't get hold of it!!

If the SNP get their way then you wont be getting any petrol from the North Sea either lol, LOL

somebody needs to produce a decent reliable all electric car with a decent range which is cheap enough for the masses, then it would be a case of who cares about a shortage of diesel fuel??

somebody needs to produce a decent reliable all electric car with a decent range which is cheap enough for the masses, then it would be a case of who cares about a shortage of diesel fuel??

Renault just have called the Zoe. Range is only 130 miles at best but it does 85 mph, 0-60 in 13 seconds and cost the same as the diesel.

Decent boot, stick your portable generator in the back if you get stuck.

Our new Asda in Worcester has 3 spaces for plug in hybrids, perhaps the change to plug in is about to start.

Surely if the country were to get in such a state, then the government would have to reduce the fuel duty, to allow the (supplier) price of diesel to rise to a point that the fuel still comes into the country. Because if we aren't buying diesel, they aren't getting their taxes.

Surely if the country were to get in such a state, then the government would have to reduce the fuel duty, to allow the (supplier) price of diesel to rise to a point that the fuel still comes into the country. Because if we aren't buying diesel, they aren't getting their taxes.

They would have to hold back diesel for emergency vehicles, army etc so diesel for the public would need rationing. People would buy all the hundeds of thousands of petrol cars on car lots and in the customs warehouses round the country ie Bristol-Portbury, Immingham so things would keep moving.

If the Euro and sterling were to take a huge dip, ie back when a Euro was only worth 80 cents USD rather than the current 1.30 USD, then the tax would have to be cut a lot, almost to nothing anyways. Diesel tax is only about 30p on the continent rather than the near 60p a litre it is here.

See there is a plan to sell diesel at about £1.15 a litre at Dover Port to encourage truck drivers to buy their diesel this side of the channel as currently most trucks who drive both sides of the channel buy and run on mainland bought fuel on British roads.

Edited 10 April, 201214 yr by lol

Diesel tax is only about 30p on the continent rather than the near 60p a litre it is here.

Here’s how we compare when it comes to diesel, so I'm not sure your figure is correct:

Country

% of pump price taken in duty and tax UK 58 Italy 53 Sweden 52 Ireland 51 Austria 48 Germany 48 Czech Republic 47 France 47 Hungary 47 Belgium 46 Denmark 46 Netherlands 46 Slovakia 46

You'll have to fill a few more jerry cans then LoL.

I think I will file this story along with:

The world will end this year.

The south East of England will be a desert in 10 years time

Global warming will kill us off in the next 20 years

The Gulf stream will stop in 20 years and Britain will freeze over

Manchester City will win the Premiership this year.

The 1975 prediction of the paperless office within 5 years is surely now not far off either.

I have it on good authority in triplicate.

somebody needs to produce a decent reliable all electric car with a decent range which is cheap enough for the masses, then it would be a case of who cares about a shortage of diesel fuel??

It's as simple as that.

Man on the Moon - 1969

Man still using the exact same fuel - 1969 - Present

Haven't we moved on ! :think:

In 10 + years I'd be expecting Petrol and Diesel to be running low.

But dont you get less derv per barrel of oil? So if Derv demain sky rockets, wont that speed up oil, and indeed petrol, running out?

We can but hope

Here’s how we compare when it comes to diesel, so I'm not sure your figure is correct:

Country

% of pump price taken in duty and tax UK 58 Italy 53 Sweden 52 Ireland 51 Austria 48 Germany 48 Czech Republic 47 France 47 Hungary 47 Belgium 46 Denmark 46 Netherlands 46 Slovakia 46

The rate of VAT is slightly different in EU countries but the excise duty for diesel varies and is less than half in some countries and I would expect this translates in to the diesel fuel being some thirty pence per litre cheaper hence the wish of Kent/Dover Port to look at closing the gap.

In Belgium is the rate 302 EUR per 1000 liter. ie about 25 a litre.

This is the typical duty on duty in many EU countries. VAT can be up to 23% but is reclaimable.

Diesel is usually about 5% cheaper than petrol rather than the other way it is in the UK.

Edited 10 April, 201214 yr by lol

The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone.

The Bronze age didn't end because we ran out of Bronze.

The Iron age ....etc...etc.

etc...etc...

The Oil age.....erm...let me think .

The next age just isn't here quite yet.

It's as simple as that.

Man on the Moon - 1969

Man still using the exact same fuel - 1969 - Present

Haven't we moved on ! :think:

Exactly. The men on the moon had electric transport.

They didnt pack jerry cans of diesel and oxygen.

We havent got it yet, its half a century overdue.

But it is of course demand driven.

But they never actually went to the moon...

Renault just have called the Zoe. Range is only 130 miles at best but it does 85 mph, 0-60 in 13 seconds and cost the same as the diesel.

A nine hour charge at home to give you a range of 130 mile at best, plus £70 a month to rent the batteries.

Still not the answer for everyones driving needs.