For those wondering about winter tyres, have a look at this forecast. Anyone who follows weather will know this guy is fast becoming a legend and has accurately predicted the UK weather for the last few years when all the Met Office and other bods said different. Trust me this guy is good !! Even councils are starting to listen to him after being caught short with lack of grit last year.

If he's right again this year, then its going to be worse than last year particularly for North and West of the country so get them tyres ordered folks you were warned !!!

http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/

Snow monsters at the ready !

:yes:

NO- We are suffering from global warming - Why does nobody believe me?

Well he has a 50% chance of being right and we have a 100% chance of being in the DOGGY DOO if he is.

"Global warming" has many of the characteristics of a religion, prophets, faith and intolerance of unbelievers. I simply cannot make the judgement despite reading a fair amount of stuff. I'm old enough to be cautious about anything which arouses so much emphatic opinion.

I do think there are very good reasons for conserving energy-my gas and electricity bills and pump prices for fuel are enough to make me reconsider my "Carbon footprint"

All I know is that it is droughting cats and dogs here and that for the first time I can remember living in southern Britain I have had two snowy winters in a row. I have some winter tyres and wheels just in case it is 3 in a row.

They can predict what the winter will be like? But cannot predict tomorrow's weather correctly?

Anyone who follows weather will know this guy is fast becoming a legend and has accurately predicted the UK weather for the last few years when all the Met Office and other bods said different.

Sorry to veer off-topic, but this is nonsense - no-one, but no-one, is able, consistently and reliably, to generate a longer term weather forecast. The best we can do currently (and only then under favourable circumstances) is about 10-14 days ahead. There are a whole bunch of charlatans around who claim to do better, but whenever their forecasts are objectively analysed (which isn't always easy because they're typically couched in fairly ambiguous terms so that they can proclaim success whatever the outcome) they're no better than random.

By all means buy some winter/all-season types - that's an excellent idea. But don't do it on the basis of it being a guaranteed severe winter. It might be, but then again it might not - the truth is that no-one knows at this stage.

Well despite having winter tyres I hoping he's got it wrong :wonder: getting caught at work with a snowfall results in a very long and difficult trip home. Made it so far but not looking forward to that time when I can't get through.

Three yeas back spent 5 hours trying to cover the 36 miles, think in the end did much more than that with all the u turns trying to find another route due to stuck and abandoned cars etc. :S oh on summers myself but driving a Corsa on skinny tyres at the time

TP

I just scanned through the blog, and I actually think it is quite conceivable.

Scientist have been working out the average temp rise every year (thank you Geography class!) and showed that temp has been uniformly going one direction. What he seems to be doing is to look at this at more micro level, ie UK and in months.

Sorry to veer off-topic, but this is nonsense - no-one, but no-one, is able, consistently and reliably, to generate a longer term weather forecast. The best we can do currently (and only then under favourable circumstances) is about 10-14 days ahead. There are a whole bunch of charlatans around who claim to do better, but whenever their forecasts are objectively analysed (which isn't always easy because they're typically couched in fairly ambiguous terms so that they can proclaim success whatever the outcome) they're no better than random.

By all means buy some winter/all-season types - that's an excellent idea. But don't do it on the basis of it being a guaranteed severe winter. It might be, but then again it might not - the truth is that no-one knows at this stage.

Im not saying whether its possible

, just that this guy has got it spot on for the last few years when many other so called larger organisations including the met office got it very wrong with the consequences we all saw with councils being ill prepared for such weather and not having adequate stocks of grit etc.

Believe or disbelieve I take the guy at his word rather than the met office. As for those who think glodal warming means warm, oh dear you need to check your science as the northern hemisphere would actually get colder due to the North Atlantic current being drastically subdued by the influx of fresh water causing desalination and a moving of the current further south.

Anyway I will be making sure I have my monster ready for winter !!!

Anyway I will be making sure I have my monster ready for winter !!!

fabulous, didn't manage to get any weekend skiing in last year, hoping for better this year. Despite the snow tyres my Octavia actually bottomed out on the snow so the snow tyres weren't a massive help when it got that deep. Hopefully the yeti will arrive this week and problem will be solved! We were at a parents' evening at school a couple of weeks back and they warned us they are being told to expect heavy snow in October.

I have found these to be good both for long range forcasts and short range. They seem to get it right more often than not.

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/

I have found these to be good both for long range forcasts and short range. They seem to get it right more often than not.

The honest answer is that none of them can do it. The standard trick is to write the forecast with plenty of wriggle-room as to exactly what is predicted to happen - it's easy enough once you've had some practice. And then have a very selective memory about which part of the forecast actually turned out as predicted or as to which part of the country it applied to. Finally, never forget that these people are first-rate self-publicists (because of the money involved, paid by gullible but deep-pocketed punters in the time-honoured tradition of snake-oil sales pitches).

The only test of a forecast is when verified independently by some totally objective third-party agency over many forecasts. All would fail by this test. Self-verification is almost universally delusional at best, and often downright fraudulent.

True, but is does seem that due to global warming the jet-stream is moving further south. The effect of this is to shut off the Gulf Stream which has allowed the UK in the past to have much milder winters than its Latitude should allow. Hence the chances of colder winters are more likely but no way certain...

Everybody is talking abot the weather - but nobody is doing anything about it......

Attributed to various people, Mark Twain included.

Long range forecasting isn't really forecasting in the way short range is. Short range forecasting is reading the evidence and predicting where it's going - it can only go a few days ahead before the variables become too great for computer modelling. Long range forecasts work on the basis of "the last time we had this pattern of weather, this is where it went..." There is no guarantee that it will do what the statistics suggest - hence the notorious 'barbecue summer'. I recall predictions being made in the spring that we could see yet another severe winter, with the proviso that if we do it will really be unusual, because it is a long time since we had three really hard winters in succession. Nevertheless, they were saying that all the bits were in place for it to happen again.

Glad I got my Yeti last year...

Edited 5 September, 201114 yr by Rev Tony B

fabulous, didn't manage to get any weekend skiing in last year, hoping for better this year. Despite the snow tyres my Octavia actually bottomed out on the snow so the snow tyres weren't a massive help when it got that deep. Hopefully the yeti will arrive this week and problem will be solved!

Hi all ye weather men,

Going slightly off piste; you (Domhnall) say that your Octavia bottomed out on the snow - does it have a "rough road package"? Or will your new Yeti have it fitted? I ask, as I got stuck several times last year (Peugeot 807) trying to get home (We are 1400' up). It was not the depth of snow that stopped us, just mainly the ice underneath. My next door neigbour, a farmer, used his linkbox to clear the deep snow, driving backwards down the hill! Welsh farmers are especially good at driving backwards on their tractors - watch them at this time of year on the hills! I have ordered my Yeti (due December...) without the rough road package - £200, as I didn't think I would be doing much off roading; but did not think whether it would be helpful in the snow... Anyone with experience of its effectiveness? I asked our local dealer yesterday if it could be fitted after delivery. They said they doubted it and if they could, it would cost much more than £200!

Continuing on the winter tyres theme: Our local Peugeot dealer says Peugeot are considering offering a service where they will fit winter tyres on your car, prior to winter, store your summer tyres, then re-fit them in the spring, and store your winter tyres. I have asked them how much!!!

Back to the weather forcasting, I can confirm that over the last four years the wind has decreased. Usually we get strong westerly winds, but due, I think to the jet stream moving south, this has changed our weather pattern to get more artic air flows and cold air from the east. I base this knowledge on one; I have a Davis weather station, and two a wind turbine, which in its first year produced 17.3mWh's (2007-8); 15.5mWh's (2008-9) 12.5mWh's (2009-10) and 12,1mWh's (2010-11). How long will this trend last, and what has caused it?

Tristar L1011

Hi all ye weather men,

Going slightly off piste; you (Domhnall) say that your Octavia bottomed out on the snow - does it have a "rough road package"? Or will your new Yeti have it fitted?

Continuing on the winter tyres theme: Our local Peugeot dealer says Peugeot are considering offering a service where they will fit winter tyres on your car, prior to winter, store your summer tyres, then re-fit them in the spring, and store your winter tyres. I have asked them how much!!!

Hi there, no the Octavia is an L&K so no fancy stuff underneath. The snow just got too deep when I was trying to pick up my parents from their house. This is a normal housing estate in a seaside town so not very high up but after 2 weeks of snow and no ploughs it was a bit deep. My yeti's not got anything extra fitted either as far as I know. it was ordered from stock so I had no input into the spec. Fingers crossed the extra ground clearance will do the trick though.

This lovely article in the Guardian this past weekend explains why it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict the weather in the UK further than FOUR DAYS!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/sep/03/uk-weather-defies-prediction-forecasters

An accurate forecast is possible six hours in advance. Anything beyond that is a prediction albeit backed up by experts with computer assistance. The longer the period the less accurate the prediction especially as the weather just really does it's own thing.

Patterns can form but until a very long period of years has passed know one really knows if the pattern is random/short term/long term.

Seasons however are usually fairly predictable. I.e. Autumn follows summer etc ........so yes winter tyres might be a good idea

Hi there, no the Octavia is an L&K so no fancy stuff underneath. The snow just got too deep when I was trying to pick up my parents from their house. This is a normal housing estate in a seaside town so not very high up but after 2 weeks of snow and no ploughs it was a bit deep. My yeti's not got anything extra fitted either as far as I know. it was ordered from stock so I had no input into the spec. Fingers crossed the extra ground clearance will do the trick though.

Thanks for that; I'll just have to wait till December to see how my Yeti performs... I think it is probably too late to add the rough road package anyway.

Peter

An accurate forecast is possible six hours in advance. Anything beyond that is a prediction albeit backed up by experts with computer assistance. The longer the period the less accurate the prediction especially as the weather just really does it's own thing.

That's broadly correct. I would say: all forecasts are based on computer model runs these days, then interpreted by humans. There's no cut-off between forecasts and 'predictions' - it's all predictions (what else is a forecast?) but, as you suggest, the further into the future the lower the probability or confidence in the forecast becomes. How far out you can forecast varies day to day according to the prevailing weather patterns. Sometimes it's tricky to get out to 36-48 hours with any reliable detail and, conversely, with certain atmospheric conditions and a good consensus in the model projections you can occasionally get out to 10 days with maybe 70-80% confidence. But, yes, overall 4 days is a reasonable 'typical' forecast period if you want to sum it up in a single figure.

Thanks for that; I'll just have to wait till December to see how my Yeti performs... I think it is probably too late to add the rough road package anyway.

Peter

Hi there not sure about the Yeti but according to the three letter codes I have the Rough Road Package on my Octy 4x4 (was bought second hand not from new but I've checked the codes). From what I can make out it comprises underbody protection and anti-snagging covers for the sump and gearbox (pukka metal guard) and things like brake and fuel pipes (full plastic undertrays).

I've certainly not had any problem getting stuck even on summer tyres with the snow deep enough to drag aloing the underside of the car and I've only had one day in the last two heavy winters where I've not risked using the car but the snow was 18" deep and fresh!

I'd therefore suggest that a Yeti with it's higher clearance and more advanced haldex will be more than capable in the snow, regardless of whether you have the package or not.

Hi there not sure about the Yeti but according to the three letter codes I have the Rough Road Package on my Octy 4x4 (was bought second hand not from new but I've checked the codes). From what I can make out it comprises underbody protection and anti-snagging covers for the sump and gearbox (pukka metal guard) and things like brake and fuel pipes (full plastic undertrays).

I've certainly not had any problem getting stuck even on summer tyres with the snow deep enough to drag aloing the underside of the car and I've only had one day in the last two heavy winters where I've not risked using the car but the snow was 18" deep and fresh!

I'd therefore suggest that a Yeti with it's higher clearance and more advanced haldex will be more than capable in the snow, regardless of whether you have the package or not.

I'm hoping the increased clearance will be enough as I've bought a 2WD Yeti - I don't go off road any more. Last year the Octavia gave up when the snow got up past the bumper and we just waited for the council to come round with JCBs to dig out our street