4 hours ago, Ryeman said:

Thoughts on VW’s poison pill -

https://driventowrite.com/2018/02/28/death-of-diesel-where-now-why-no-clarity/comment-page-1/#comments

 

Driving an electric car is definitely a 'torque' experience. The problem is I can get at least 600 miles from my Tdi and fill it up in 5 minutes. When comparing economy with gasoline engines  we now see much closer figures. But years ago pre dpf and all that added engine complexity, diesel fuel was far cheaper than gasoline in U.K and a lot more so in France. In U.K you would often only find one diesel pump on the forecourt used for commercial vehicles. As diesel car ownership increased to about 50%, diesel fuel prices at the pump compared to gasoline have increased, closing the gap between gasoline and petrol car fuel economy.

 

But what will happen to the future price of diesel fuel when diesel car ownership falls off - will it go down? Now there's the issue of rising CO2 levels as diesel drivers switch to gasoline. There always seems to be an environmental hit whichever way you go. Electric cars in large numbers will need changes to the electricity supply infrastructure and those batteries have to be made and disposed of. 

 

I think I'll buy a horse and heat my house on horse poo!

10 minutes ago, voxmagna said:

 

Driving an electric car is definitely a 'torque' experience. The problem is I can get at least 600 miles from my Tdi and fill it up in 5 minutes. When comparing economy with gasoline engines  we now see much closer figures. But years ago pre dpf and all that added engine complexity, diesel fuel was far cheaper than gasoline in U.K and a lot more so in France. In U.K you would often only find one diesel pump on the forecourt used for commercial vehicles. As diesel car ownership increased to about 50%, diesel fuel prices at the pump compared to gasoline have increased, closing the gap between gasoline and petrol car fuel economy.

 

But what will happen to the future price of diesel fuel when diesel car ownership falls off - will it go down? Now there's the issue of rising CO2 levels as diesel drivers switch to gasoline. There always seems to be an environmental hit whichever way you go. Electric cars in large numbers will need changes to the electricity supply infrastructure and those batteries have to be made and disposed of. 

 

I think I'll buy a horse and heat my house on horse poo!

If there’s a quid in it the power companies/McDonald’s et al will be up for it.

The ICE is running out of time in any case.

Roads and footpaths are being converted to power generation in places like the Netherlands I’ve read.

I’m happy to continue with small turbo petrol and wait for the avalanche of change.

When they crack oil to make fuels such as petrol they also get heating fuel, lubrication oil diesel etc.

If everyone goes petrol there will be a lot of surplus diesel around which will have to be used or disposed off. You can’t get petrol without also making diesel.

Anyway my Euro 6 diesel produces no more nox than a new petrol and a lot less co2, with particulates removed by the dpf, so anyone buying a new petrol car for significant use is doing more harm than I am.

Clearly for little used cars, electric  is a viable option for the first owner, but the second hand value is debatable when the expensive batteries will have to be replaced after 5 years or so. I would not consider owning one of these more than 4 years old.

Hence low mileage use is still probably best in petrol.

In any case there is no really viable alternative yet for hgv diesels. At least they use Adblock though now in newer ones. Real problems for cities are the old diesel taxis, buses and trains, and co2 from petrol cars not post 2015 diesel cars

Edited 28 February, 20188 yr by kenfowler3966

Unfortunately the future will not be based on logical arguments, but on business and political driving factors: We all know that diesel public service, commercial vehicles and ships can be the worst polluters. But which sector of the automotive market can give the most return to businesses and governments? It's the mass market of private car owners who do not have the same lobbying influences and are easy targets. You do a good job of killing off diesel or gasoline based technologies because you need to get money from those owners in order to fund research and production of alternative vehicles. There will be the usual incentives early on, but those will not compensate for the depreciation caused by anti fossil fuel advertising whilst new technology usually brings new problems for the early adopters.  Watch what will happen to taxation once there's a move towards electric vehicles. Initially there will be the incentives, then the move towards autonomous vehicles and the GPS technology YOU pay for will be used for road use pricing, taxation and insurance schemes. The Trojan horse of tracking your movements is built in.

 

If a product was built to last forever unaffected by environmental or commercial interest, companies would go bust once their market was saturated. Governments generate loads of taxes from companies manufacturing and selling vehicles and those companies generate huge profits. Where does all that money come from? Us!

Apparently superconductors will make the current BEV outdated tech.

You can’t say anything about the future that will be accurate for more than 5 minutes simply because there are too many moving targets.

Just think about the hundreds of thousands of PHD students with discoveries that will change everything.

I suspect the more we learn the more we realise just how little we know.

If someone makes a fortune there’ll be many more that have lost one.

11 hours ago, kenfowler3966 said:

 

In any case there is no really viable alternative yet for hgv diesels. At least they use Adblock though now in newer ones. 

 

Do they? Can't be very effective then; most of them I see have great big adverts plastered down both sides - and across the back........

Edited 28 February, 20188 yr by muddyjim

10 hours ago, Ryeman said:

Apparently superconductors will make the current BEV outdated tech.

You can’t say anything about the future that will be accurate for more than 5 minutes simply because there are too many moving targets.

Just think about the hundreds of thousands of PHD students with discoveries that will change everything.

I suspect the more we learn the more we realise just how little we know.

If someone makes a fortune there’ll be many more that have lost one.

Are you maybe meaning supercapacitors, rather than superconductors?

If so, look up the energy density values for them, comparing with petrol/diesel numbers.

 

7 minutes ago, Wino said:

Are you maybe meaning supercapacitors, rather than superconductors?

If so, look up the energy density values for them, comparing with petrol/diesel numbers.

 

Yes, my mistake.

I can’t find the article but was somewhat shocked at the suggestion that something could become so outdated so soon.

Literally unbelievable.

1 hour ago, Ryeman said:

Literally unbelievable.

Things that are literally unbelievable should not be believed.

Just now, Wino said:

Things that are literally unbelievable should not be believed.

I was surprised with the claim as it wasn’t a blogger as such and I can’t remember where it was in any case.

I’m completely clueless in e territory.