After the departure of Mr Diess and internal reviews VW Group realises it is in huge trouble unless the partnership with SAIC, and maybe a sell off to SAIC, works.......

 

  

I’m wondering…

- How long before cars follow pretty much everything and end up made in China?

- How worried I should be (given warnings such as those with the 5G infrastructure a wee while ago).

- What would be the long term impact on UK/Europe position in the global economy.

- Am I over thinking all this? 

57 minutes ago, SteveTheElder said:

I’m wondering…

- How long before cars follow pretty much everything and end up made in China?

- How worried I should be (given warnings such as those with the 5G infrastructure a wee while ago).

- What would be the long term impact on UK/Europe position in the global economy.

- Am I over thinking all this? 

 

Well it is happening and the first 6 months of 2023 have clearly been the inflection time with the TESLA Model Y becoming the best selling car in the world, taking over from the Camry, and a host of other cars which many are made in China as is the MG4, Polestars, Volvo, London Taxis etc.  The 21st century is the rise of the Asian economies to the fore, overtaking the US and previously the UK as the centre of the industrial world.  My main other thought is how much India will be a player in the new world order ?

 

The UK is a fading industrial power, riddled with inefficient working practices, management structures and infrastructure.  Hopefully our generation will see the next couple of decades out quite well but our off spring will have a tougher future than we had and slipping in to Third World levels of comparative wealth looks inevitable. I would recommend migration to either Australian, Canada or New Zealand to any UK citizen who want to maintain a good living standard in to the second half of the 21st century. This may apply to all of Europe, except the Scandinavian countries which seem to have lots of resources and much less population to share that wealth with. 

 

It is the Fall of the Roman Empire, or any other empire.  Each region has their time, the European time is just about over, just how thing go.

 

VW, and the most the other European brands, maybe Volvo and Renault less so, have been blind sided by the disruption to the automotive markets by EVs and caught napping and it looks like it will cost them their very existence.  Sad but Darwin rules. 

 

The Japanese, North Korean & Indian car manufacturers are going to be building cars in their own countries and globally in any countries for a long time into the future.

1 hour ago, toot said:

The Japanese, North Korean & Indian car manufacturers are going to be building cars in their own countries and globally in any countries for a long time into the future.

 

Reports around that Nissan, like VW Group, are so indebted that the are going to have to restructure or die.

 

Toyota have been caught with their pants down with the BZ4 as it has gone down as one of the worst product launches with the original spec car full of flaws and not performing to barely half the level as advertised.  Mazda, Suzuki and other Japanese car manufacturers seem to have not invested in the EV quantum market change, Toyota forever stuck at the Prius hybrid point.

 

Not sure North Korea will ever amount to anything in the automotive world.

 

India is the big mystery.  Love their bikes and 3 wheelers and Tata is a major worldwide player in automotive as we know.  

 

As with everything else China will make goods to such a low price point and at a middling quality standard that you either buy it or settle with a far inferior home grown product.

 

Nationalistic protectionist measures, anti-dumping, countervailing measures, tax breaks for home grown products sometimes only put off the inevitable for a few months.  China makes the majority of so many key products and increasingly controls many key minerals. It is their time, best try and be friends rather than enemies.   

 

Sorry, Typo. 

South Korea.   As in Kia / Hyundai who probably build the best EV,s in Central Europe. 

25 minutes ago, toot said:

Sorry, Typo. 

South Korea.   As in Kia / Hyundai who probably build the best EV,s in Central Europe. 

 

Don't mention the war..... ahh, shrapnel from the war, ......KOREAN 

Are Hyundai/Kia making money and can they upscale to compete with TESLA, BYD, SIAC etc ?

 

 

3 hours ago, toot said:

Sorry, Typo.    South Korea.   As in Kia / Hyundai who probably build the best EV,s in Central Europe. 

 

George, you probably would not be surprised to hear how many customs clerks pick out the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea as being the South Korea and the Republic of Korea as North Korea as it sounds the right way round but it is the wrong way round.  Clerk use KP when they should be using KR and then they are in a whole world of questions on sending high tech etc goods to an embargoed country. My uncle fought in Korea. The Korean work ethic probably exceeds even the Japanese one.   

 

 

ISO 3166^[1]ISO 3166-1^[2]ISO 3166-2^[3

^]Country name^[5]                                                                                             Official state name^[6][a]                                             Sovereignty^[             Alpha-2 code   Alpha-3 code 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Numeric code 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Subdivision code links    Internet ccTLD^[9

Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of) [p]	The Democratic People's Republic of Korea	UN member state	KP	PRK	408	ISO 3166-2:KP	.kp
Korea (the Republic of) [q]	The Republic of Korea	UN member state	KR	KOR	410	ISO 3166-2:KR	.kr

 

 

The changing world order...https://www.digitalinformationworld.com/2020/07/asian-countries-to-surpass-european-economic-giants-by-2024-suggests-data.html

7 hours ago, lol-lol said:

China makes the majority of so many key products and increasingly controls many key minerals. It is their time

 

And well deserved.

3 hours ago, J.R. said:

 

And well deserved.

Is that sarcasm?

Edited 18 July, 20232 yr by @Lee

9 hours ago, @Lee said:

Is that sarcasm?

 

The Peoples Republic of China is being quite imperialistic in the South China Sea and economically around the globe and its treatment of Uyghurs is terrible but much worse than Britain (or France) in its history ?

 

UK's treatment of the Irish, Slaves, mass exploitation of wealth and cultural artifacts from about a third of the world is well documented.  The US president currently clearly distrusts the UK but loves the Irish based on his own heritage, as do tens of millions of other US citizens.  Events of the past have bearing on the present.  

 

The major European powers should be very aware of history.  The Opium war, the Arrow war where the British and French killed tens of thousands of Chinese, grabbed land, got Hong Kong out of one "treaty".  From my studies in Asian politic and economics the Chinese education system go through this period and call it the "Century of Humiliation", but covers mid 19th century to mid 20th century, so pretty recent history and only beginning to be rectified with the arrival of the Communist party and its laser focus on making China not suffer at the hand of Western Imperialist again.  

 

What goes around comes around.

 

Edited 18 July, 20232 yr by lol-lol

I think the world might be starting to pivot away from China actually. The Western political love-in with China is fading and the politicians are actually starting to listen to the idea that China is actually a lot like Russia and not to be trusted. We're shaking hands and rolling out the red carpet to a country which is actively attacking Westen interests 24/7.

The US has started pulling out microchip fabrication from China and Taiwan and bringing them back home. That's not making much noise because it takes about 5yr to spin up a chip forge and billions of dollars.

Russia as a former trusted partner in energy has opened some eyes that putting a large amount of your critical national infrastructure into the hands of your enemies is actually not a good iea no matter how many directorships it gets you after you are voted out.

China itself has probably delayed its ambitions  in the Western pacific for a few years now after Russia's play has backfired and resolidified NATO and Western military spending.
But China and Russia both play a long game not the 4yr cycles of the West. Russia might be on it's way to being made a 3rd word country but China isn't Russia. They are much more strategic and disciplined.

I think we'll start to slowly see some manufacturing be brough back to Europe. Not to the UK we're too expensive but to the Eastern states and probably to Ukraine when the dust settles. There will be big business to be done in Ukraine to rebuild. Lots of money to be made.

20 hours ago, @Lee said:

Is that sarcasm?

Dead serious,  it was a discussion about economics and business in the vehicle sector. A pleasant break from politics while it lasted. 

41 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Dead serious,  it was a discussion about economics and business in the vehicle sector. A pleasant break from politics while it lasted. 

TBF it seems the previous posts to yours were more about Geopolitics which seems related to the economics side of things. 

Well VW Group, despite being hundred of billions of Euros in debt, as decided to splurge money on more Chinese assets with XPung and SAIC Chinese car companies.

 

In a move that can only mean more use of Chinese EV parts and even China, Far East production of battery packs and cars, which has to be at the expense of its European workers.

 

Be interesting to see if there are going to be strike at VAG car plants in Europe as they see their jobs going to Asia.

 

Europe does not seem to be able to compete on price of cars to market due to the economies of scale and technical lead of the Chinese in to Lithium Phosphate batteries...

 

 

 

 

If anyone's got an electric car on order it may well be on fire in the North Sea. The crew have apparently jumped off. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66310280

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20230726-deadly-fire-burning-on-car-transport-ship-off-netherlands?fbclid=IwAR2cbP1NK0dGnq3mllRCCCKNK10Xi7rLqMs9N6g6C_2NfPr5yzrAdNBIr2o

Edited 26 July, 20232 yr by @Lee

15 minutes ago, @Lee said:

If anyone's got an electric car on order it may well be on fire in the North Sea. The crew have apparently jumped off. 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66310280

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20230726-deadly-fire-burning-on-car-transport-ship-off-netherlands?fbclid=IwAR2cbP1NK0dGnq3mllRCCCKNK10Xi7rLqMs9N6g6C_2NfPr5yzrAdNBIr2o

 

Car vessels do seem to go up now and then for various reasons.

 

EVs are getting much safer with the adoption of Lithium Phosphate batteries rather than Lithium ion but there should have been fire suppression systems on board which should have flooded the space with CO2 so the ships systems failed on two levels ie quick detection and then fire fighting.

 

Hopefully investigators will find the real reason categorically.   EVs with Lithium type batteries need to have the battery compartment shattered with massive force to create a short ie 70 mph wrapping around a lamppost so unless one EV smashed in to another one from several decks above I cannot imagine how such force could have occurred on a car transporter.  As I said even if a fire started it should have been put out in seconds with CO2 suppression.

 

 I recall big concerns when seat belts came in and some random stats showed ten times as many people dying burnt to death from fuel leaks in crashes and the collapsed structure making it too hard for the passenger to release themselves from the seat belt mechanism.