I can't stand the new-style plates. Maybe I shouldn't care so much though :P

That's why my plate will always be the same, whatever I buy.

But yes, I think the 5x style looks terrible and if I were having a 'normal' plated car, I would certainly wait for a 0x. Although saying that, they're going to look even dafter in a couple of years time! What's Sept 2010 going to be - 60 is it?

Steve

Dunno...the published figures suggest a situation which isn't borne out from speaking to dealers. Maybe they're just the lucky ones?

Car dealers telling porkies? Never!

I think 20% of the market is a bit big to be explained away as pre-reg. Especially when over half the market is business/fleet. I assume they don't buy pre-reg/nearly new :confused:

Having looked at the SMMT figures, they're available to look at for quite a few years. I don' tthink you can explain away the fall in sales that easily as a 3 year buying cycle.

forgot about the new reg coming out.I wish they went back to August 1st.

forgot about the new reg coming out.I wish they went back to August 1st.

Why?

Your birthday per chance?

Car dealers telling porkies? Never!

The number of 59 registered cars sat on the lot waiting to go out added weight to their claim. Though this doesn't take into account that 1) I don't know how many more cars they would've had on the lot 3 years ago, and 2) the dealers I've been to sell small cars - I don't know how busy Land Rover dealers have been.

I think 20% of the market is a bit big to be explained away as pre-reg. Especially when over half the market is business/fleet. I assume they don't buy pre-reg/nearly new :confused:

I wouldn't expect pre-reg to account for the full 20%, but if you look at dealers like Horners (who used to pre-reg a lot) who have subsequently disappeared, I would expect this to leave something of a gap in the sales.

I'd heard fleets are looking at running their cars for 5 years instead of the traditional 3 - I'm not sure how widely this has been adopted, but if it has then it would lead to a drop in sales too.

Rob.

The number of 59 registered cars sat on the lot waiting to go out added weight to their claim. Though this doesn't take into account that 1) I don't know how many more cars they would've had on the lot 3 years ago, and 2) the dealers I've been to sell small cars - I don't know how busy Land Rover dealers have been.

I wouldn't expect pre-reg to account for the full 20%, but if you look at dealers like Horners (who used to pre-reg a lot) who have subsequently disappeared, I would expect this to leave something of a gap in the sales.

I'd heard fleets are looking at running their cars for 5 years instead of the traditional 3 - I'm not sure how widely this has been adopted, but if it has then it would lead to a drop in sales too.

Rob.

So its a change in consumer behaviour brought about by a "credit crunch" (dirty term) rather than typical buying patterns now? Year 2 in a 3 year buying cycle has become running for 5yrs instead of 3?

Exactly though, some dealers have gone out of business, others have cut staff but the survivors will still sell over a third of a million cars this month. Of course they'll be busy but will they be profitable?

20% down across a whole sector of business/industry is fairly cataclysmic under the current economic system plus the usual effect of a small fall in turnover makes a big dent in profitability.

So its a change in consumer behaviour brought about by a "credit crunch" (dirty term) rather than typical buying patterns now? Year 2 in a 3 year buying cycle has become running for 5yrs instead of 3?

Could be credit crunch - or could be the cost of fuel and road tax which is causing people to change to smaller cars, neither of which are related to the availability of credit. Likewise with fleets extending their cycles to 5 years - it's something they've been discussing for a while, purely because cars can last to 5 years without major expense so it makes more sense to run the fleet more cost-effectively, regardless of the financial climate.

Exactly though, some dealers have gone out of business, others have cut staff but the survivors will still sell over a third of a million cars this month. Of course they'll be busy but will they be profitable?

I'd have thought so - if they were making money on new cars 3 years ago, I'd have thought they'd continue to do so? In fact, arguably if there are 20+% less dealers (not sure if this is actually the case) but car sales are down 20%, there will more sales per remaining-dealership?

Rob.

So in response you are agreeing with me that an increase in costs has more than likely changed the consumption pattern of cars which will detrimentally affect the new car sales industry?

The likes of Pendragon (easy to find info as they're listed) slashed staff and dealerships and still saw profits fall by a half. They think the worst is over and scrappage has helped them greatly.

Except...

Scrappage is forecast to run out in November time and a current unknown is how much future demand has been consumed already due to the scrappage incentive.

However interesting they found 2009, I will find 2010 very interesting.

Got stuck behind a '59' tractor the other day, on delivery plates. Its the only one I've seen so far...

So in response you are agreeing with me that an increase in costs has more than likely changed the consumption pattern of cars which will detrimentally affect the new car sales industry?

What I'm saying is that an increase in costs might be why the dealers I've experience of seem to be busy - they produce small cheap cars, and people looking to downsize as a result of ever increasing fuel and tax costs will buy these cars in droves. This isn't necessarily related to a change in financial climate, as being able to afford something isn't the same as not wanting to afford something...

The likes of Pendragon (easy to find info as they're listed) slashed staff and dealerships and still saw profits fall by a half. They think the worst is over and scrappage has helped them greatly.

Their profits aren't solely linked to new car sales though - things like the increased cost of acquiring used stock will have affected their profitability, and being a large group they're no doubt more vulnerable to operational inefficiencies.

Rob.

Remember though many bought cars in 2007 before the problems, and are likely to be at the and of a finance agreement and looking for another.

What I'm saying is that an increase in costs might be why the dealers I've experience of seem to be busy - they produce small cheap cars, and people looking to downsize as a result of ever increasing fuel and tax costs will buy these cars in droves. This isn't necessarily related to a change in financial climate, as being able to afford something isn't the same as not wanting to afford something...

So you're telling me that inflation of the money supply characterised by a credit bubble and consequent bailout of the financial sector had no effect on commodity prices nor the need of the government to continue to increase taxes?

Their profits aren't solely linked to new car sales though - things like the increased cost of acquiring used stock will have affected their profitability, and being a large group they're no doubt more vulnerable to operational inefficiencies.

"Operational inefficiencies"? yeah, yeah and if I had said that you would have quoted "economies of scale" During the good times dealers moaned they couldn't compete with internet brokers and they made very little profit on new car sales. Now you're telling me its other areas of the business that are dragging them down :confused: How foolish car dealers must feel now, through the record times all they needed to do was sell 20% fewer cars and it would all have been great

Another thing, I don't think I've yet mentioned is the smaller profit typically generated on smaller cars by dealers/manufacturers. Which is a reason I believe an upsurge in small car sales ('mini' sector up 250% in Aug YoY) is not as good as you might think for dealers. Margins being squeezed and having to sell more cars (and looking busier with it) just to keep their heads above water.

But of course you must be right. People just decided they didn't really need a new car. They didn't lose their jobs, they didn't see their pay cut, they didn't see a chunk of disposable income generated from HEW disappear, they didn't watch the value of the pound plummet, in fact they have more disposable income than ever they just thought we don't really need it...

First 59 plates I seen were a few citroen's at a car wash ie like a hot foam wash two or three days before the plates came out to be cleaned, aside from the ones I seen in the showroom at Skoda.

The first 59 plate I seen driving out of the showroom was a mark 7 fiesta van.

Followed a Focus 1.6 with L plates very slowly for about 5 miles at about 10am on the 1st Sept.

Its not always the case that a 'Demo' or Used car is cheaper than a new car.

At the end of 2005 i went to take a look at the SEAT Leon mk1 and the FR TDI for a test drive. The one i drove was on the forecourt for £14k with 6000 miles on the clock, 6 months old and had the standard FR kit on it.

I was happy to buy that car, but the salesman informed me that a BRAND NEW Leon would cost me £500 less, plus it would have the Cupra R kit fitted (aprox £1300 extra) for free.

So obviously i bought it and saved alot of money and got a the body kit and wheels for free.

The deals are out there, you just need to do some homework.