EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Ootohere]

The Republic of Ireland is obviously very close geographically to the United Kingdom / Great Britain & Northern Ireland but surely as part of the EU the RoI is going to have to negotiate and reach agreements that the EU allows them to.

Any current 'Special Agreements & Areangements' as an old a close friend or even enemy might count for nothing after the UK finally  leaves the EU.

[lol-lol]

Not sure what the problem is with Sir Ivan Rogers resigning, he was leaving in November anyway. If article 50 is triggered by March he would only been involved in negotiations for about six months of the two year process. So better than he goes now.

 

He would not have gone in November, as mentioned in his email to his staff, as he would have had his 4 year term extended to cover the Article 50 invocation.  He quite rightly points out that the more complex Free Trade Agreements ie those involving most of the full 5,000 customs commodity code of types of goods and a heavy element of services negotiation as well, typical take the thick end of the 2 to 10 year range of the timescales that the dozens of FTAs that the EU and other countries have taken to finalise after multiple revisions that they go through going back and forth from the negotiation team and the respective governments it is ferd back to for validation.

 

The UK-EU FTA needs to be completed by October 2018 as it needs a further 6 months or so to go through the various national parliaments so there is only around 18 months to finalise the text, Sir Ivan Rogers, KCMG, could have stayed on until October 2018 if he had confidence in the competency of the current UK government's key personnel to understand the complexity of what the UK-EU FTA would require as a process but clearly felt that the lack of a laying out of clear objective as to what was wanted by UK Gov was not going to change and therefore he would resign early.

 

He did the decent thing to go now, he is only 56.  Uk Gov have a bit of time and that person, as history shows, should prepare for several years of work, plus a good transitional agreement to bridge between 2 year (18 month) period and the eventual full UK-EU FTA some years down the line.  SIr Ivan statement of "We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit" (ie No Plan) was particularly telling.    

[Dr Zoidberg]

 

Really an issue for those who lust rely on the State pension.  The UK has a great system where you can put up to £40K a year, up to £1M lifetime, and avoid the 20 and even 40% income tax rate so very worth doing when you can start drawing down your pension at 55 years old.

 

 

Anyone who can afford to put £40k a year into a pension isn't going to be worried about what the state pension is doing.

[Ootohere]

The decent thing was to go, collect the readies and shut his trap.

Now he has opened his can of worms and lets hope for him he is squeaky clean.

[moley]

Sir Tim Barrow is the new Sir Ivan Rogers. If I had a choice I would have gone with Jason Bourne, he doesn't f**k about, he doesn't quit until the jobs done and he gets on with it. I reckon he would complete the negotiations in about a month, there might be quite a few dead bodies about, but the task would be finished.

[@Lee]

.......The road to perdition.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4NewsDemocracy/videos/1170923436318931/

[@Lee]

IDS; May doesn't know what she wants (read 'clueless')

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-doesnt-know-what-wants-9560570

[gadgetman]

IDS; May doesn't know what she wants (read 'clueless')

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/theresa-doesnt-know-what-wants-9560570

IDS is a prat. The same prat who oversaw benefit crack downs then in his resignation letter claimed it was someone else's instruction he followed under protest.

His self interests in brexit are as plain to see as the folks leading the new Leave Means Leave group. Being in the EU is actually hurting their self interests.

Anyone who thinks the majority of the backers of the leave campaigns both financially or by being poster boys & girls were doing it for our benefit need to delve into their personal affairs and business links....

[lol-lol]

Sir Tim Barrow is the new Sir Ivan Rogers. If I had a choice I would have gone with Jason Bourne, he doesn't f**k about, he doesn't quit until the jobs done and he gets on with it. I reckon he would complete the negotiations in about a month, there might be quite a few dead bodies about, but the task would be finished.

 

Not a good choice it would appear as Barrow has mainly experience in Eastern European posting which is a totally difference scenario than required to optimise an EU deal, at least the UK Government is consistent in putting up unsuitable people as with Davis, Fox and Bojo.   

[Ootohere]

LOL @ lol-lol,

Article 50 has not been called, and as to Northern, Eastern, Central, Western, Southern Europe it is the EU which is 28 countries 1 of which is leaving, eg the UK

It really needs some smart cookies not some time wasting Civil Servants stretching things out for ever.

 

The Politicians can do that, or try to, but 2 years after Article 50 the UK is Offski, chit chatting all done or not, and then companies will want goods sold / bought.

Edited 4 January, 2017 by Offski

[moley]

Not a good choice it would appear as Barrow has mainly experience in Eastern European posting which is a totally difference scenario than required to optimise an EU deal, at least the UK Government is consistent in putting up unsuitable people as with Davis, Fox and Bojo.   

Sir Tim Barrow has been appointed as Britain's new EU ambassador after a life-long career in the foreign office which has seen him serve in senior roles twice before in Brussels.

while Sir Ivan was a "pessimist", Sir Tim is an "pragmatic problem solver" who is prepared to give the "unvarnished truth" but also to offer solutions.

Charles Crawford, his former boss, told LBC he will "fearless" in his new job and that he was an "excellent choice."

The former Russian diplomat added that Sir Tim will not be a "government patsy".

[lol-lol]

Sir Tim Barrow has been appointed as Britain's new EU ambassador after a life-long career in the foreign office which has seen him serve in senior roles twice before in Brussels.

while Sir Ivan was a "pessimist", Sir Tim is an "pragmatic problem solver" who is prepared to give the "unvarnished truth" but also to offer solutions.

Charles Crawford, his former boss, told LBC he will "fearless" in his new job and that he was an "excellent choice."

The former Russian diplomat added that Sir Tim will not be a "government patsy".

 

Somebody who is described as fearless sounds like the wrong time of person.  It is not bluff and hard nosing but dealing with an immense amount of technical details of complex customs and services aspects that would get the UK the best deal.  He has spent only about a quarter of his time on EU work and looks like he was the one to step forward and others with better CVs could see it was a poisoned challis and dealing with UK government minister who clearly have little understanding of the technical complexity of FTA between complex and diverse economies.

 

We will see how currencies react tomorrow from this low point of 1.23 against the USD and 1.175 for the Euro.  

Edited 4 January, 2017 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

No problem for your employers that are a Multi National, all positive stuff, the more uncertainty the more many can pocket in the long run.

It is not serious like war and death or football after all.

[moley]

Somebody who is described as fearless sounds like the wrong time of person. 

I picked up on the other positives. 

"pragmatic problem solver" "excellent choice."

[lol-lol]

I picked up on the other positives. 

"pragmatic problem solver" "excellent choice."

 

Crawford is another Eastern European specialist and the complex services and trade aspects of the EU is a different matter to the types of issues one more commonly deals with in Eastern European matters so I would not give a great deal of weight to his testimony.

 

Let us hope that Barrow does adapt quickly and can construct a great deal.  Arguing for a business as is until the UK-EU FTAs in place would be great and although Germany would probably like that many southern European countries may not and to deal with all 27 Member States and to do it in 18 months looks like an impossible task, as Rogers said the thick end of ten years looks more likely to those with the technical knowledge and experience of dealing this matters over the last 30 years. 

[moley]

Eurozone inflation increases.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38507368

[@Lee]

awkward............

 

http://news.sky.com/story/andrea-leadsoms-brexit-boast-fails-to-impress-farmers-10718020

[lol-lol]

Eurozone inflation increases.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38507368

 

Still lower than the UK 1.2% CPI and 2.2% RPI.

 

USD dollar strength is affecting all countries import of raw material, oil etc which are priced in USDs.   Will everyone's wages keep up with the rising inflation?

[Ryeman]

......not to mention the other job destroying innovation fast approaching just at a time when the hoi polloi discover that more stuff doesn't equal more happiness.

[trundlenut]

LOL @ lol-lol,

Article 50 has not been called, and as to Northern, Eastern, Central, Western, Southern Europe it is the EU which is 28 countries 1 of which is leaving, eg the UK

It really needs some smart cookies not some time wasting Civil Servants stretching things out for ever.

The Politicians can do that, or try to, but 2 years after Article 50 the UK is Offski, chit chatting all done or not, and then companies will want goods sold / bought.

But George you would dismiss anyone technically capable or suitably experienced as a snouter, so how could anyone do the job?

[gadgetman]

awkward............

http://news.sky.com/story/andrea-leadsoms-brexit-boast-fails-to-impress-farmers-10718020

Farmers & fisherman are more worried about subsidies and migrant workforce than eu red tape..

Without cheap migrants the UK veg is unviable. Without the continuing subsidies, most fishing and farms will go bust I keep reading.

Thankfully Leadsom like the others will be in front of the people brexit will affect the most having to give answers

[Ryeman]

Our backbreaking jobs are done by low taxed backpackers on temporary visas

[Ootohere]

They are snouters or working for snouters that are in politics,

so as well to pay Professional Negotiators that have the Education and Business Experience and not 

Treasury People that have a Degree in Politics, History & coming from the right school and family and then working for the Students Union, Political Party & never been in Commerce or Industry or had to make a profit for employers.

[trundlenut]

They are snouters or working for snouters that are in politics,

so as well to pay Professional Negotiators that have the Education and Business Experience and not

Treasury People that have a Degree in Politics, History & coming from the right school and family and then working for the Students Union, Political Party & never been in Commerce or Industry or had to make a profit for employers.

Where from George?

[Ryeman]

.....as long as they're not from the swamp?.