Used Car Prices

[Tilt]

I disagree, based on a few factors ......

 

1 The car supermarkets and traders have already, and continue to do so afaik, paid top wack for trade ins and folk just selling their cars. (I do get that the px part of this is not such a big factor as the buyer would have also paid top wack for their newer car).

 

2 There are a lot of people with more money than sense, in most cases a lot more money than sense...

 

3 And the ones that have about as much (little) money as (little) sense, just borrow stupid amounts to have the best car they cannot really afford.

 

4 Any 'small influx of cars' (with folk trying to cash in on high prices) will just be sent to storage somewhere. Their company will still be worth ££££ as they still have the stock.

 

So, prices may vary a little but there is no way I see any kind of 'price crash' happening.

 

A bit like houses, people need and want cars ....... and whilst finance is so easily available I cannot see a change.

[Ootohere]

Lots of dealers / traders stock is bought on borrowed money, especially bought from BCA's. 

Even the Car prep and transportation is on tick and there has to be a turnover of stock. 

 

http://www.bca.co.uk/Services/partner-finance

 

[Aspman]

'd agree with George there. Too much money tied up in metal and the trade won't just sell at any price. Stock will get hidden away to drive up prices, works for De Beers anyway.
I'm sure prices will soften but 5-15% at most and only on undesirable stock, other stuff will get pushed even higher with inflation.
 

[ruida_silva]

That’s true, dealers have already paid a good amount and there is money tied up in cars but I’m seeing adverts sat for weeks and months, I’ve even managed to knock off £500 off a £10k car with 2 years warranty without hassle. 
 

big dealers may have paid a lot but still under what current market values so there is room for negotiation.

 

As soon as a car is gone, the money is no longer tied up and as they sell, they’ll be buying them cheaper and cheaper so the money tied up will be less and less in theory.

 

If a lot of private sellers wanted to cash in on the conditions, then other private sellers and dealers will be forced to have competitive pricing, that’s just my thinking. If enough undercut the market, others will have to follow suit back down to a new norm

[Tilt]

On 18/03/2023 at 14:58, Aspman said:

'd agree with George there. Too much money tied up in metal and the trade won't just sell at any price. Stock will get hidden away to drive up prices, works for De Beers anyway.
I'm sure prices will soften but 5-15% at most and only on undesirable stock, other stuff will get pushed even higher with inflation.
 

 

I don't think that is what George was saying as he states 'there has to be a turnover of stock' ...........

 

I totally agree with the thinking that the 'trade won't just sell at any price' ..............

 

The whole idea of this topic is that stock has already been hidden away for some time now, having the consequence of highly inflated prices to boot.

[Ootohere]

^^^ Exactly.

They need Trade In's to get those sold or moved on.  They need to keep paying employees and overheads and and Interest on money borrowed.

 

The Tax is paid on profits so you reduce profits by showing how much you spent on the prep, servicing etc, those 'Free Service Packages' and a Warranty etc.

If you can do all that for much cheapness but having looking expensive, then a nudge and a wink to a blind man.

 

You can not just stay in business Pyramid Selling unless Pyramids are changing hands. 

[ruida_silva]

In terms of stock being kept hidden away, I’m not sure that will make that much of a difference as before covid, we had a similar number of adverts on Autotrader. Yes there are hundreds, thousands of cars been kept to control the supply but if the supply is the same as before covid I can’t see why that would be a big factor 

[EnterName]

On 15/03/2023 at 17:35, Tilt said:

I disagree, based on a few factors ......

 

1 The car supermarkets and traders have already, and continue to do so afaik, paid top wack for trade ins and folk just selling their cars. (I do get that the px part of this is not such a big factor as the buyer would have also paid top wack for their newer car).

 

2 There are a lot of people with more money than sense, in most cases a lot more money than sense...

 

3 And the ones that have about as much (little) money as (little) sense, just borrow stupid amounts to have the best car they cannot really afford.

 

4 Any 'small influx of cars' (with folk trying to cash in on high prices) will just be sent to storage somewhere. Their company will still be worth ££££ as they still have the stock.

 

So, prices may vary a little but there is no way I see any kind of 'price crash' happening.

 

A bit like houses, people need and want cars ....... and whilst finance is so easily available I cannot see a change.

With interest rates going up every couple of months, finance might not be the easy option it once was.

I haven't checked the borrowing rates lately, but I very much doubt they're lower than they were 6 months ago.

[ruida_silva]

1 hour ago, EnterName said:

With interest rates going up every couple of months, finance might not be the easy option it once was.

I haven't checked the borrowing rates lately, but I very much doubt they're lower than they were 6 months ago.

That as well, way too many bills that are too expensive for people to be justifying the prices they are now.

 

I’m in a position where I didn’t buy a car expensive enough to make profit on now so it’s not like I’m getting over priced money for my car to put towards an over priced car. Instead the deposit will have to be out of my own pocket. There will be a lot of other people in this situation that may get something that will hardly lose value, thus reducing demand for those higher priced used cars 

[Aspman]

Volvo is doing 0% finance again which is usually when they are having problems selling.
So is Skoda.

Something not adding up.

Edited 28 March, 2023 by Aspman

[ruida_silva]

I also enquired about 0% finance with stoneacre but decided against as you need 50% deposit and the obvious thing of the prices being a few thousand over 

[Tilt]

I haven't even looked at one yet as I had set my mind on an A class but due to the fact they are everywhere and prices of them are stupid money .......

 

........ I am considering an E class coupe instead ...........

 

They seem to be one of the better value cars, (I can understand why) although still overpriced.

 

I was convinced that I was going petrol engine but comments about the smaller petrol engines needing to be revved, and not sounding great either, I may stick with diesel.

Liking the thought of a E250 (twin turbo). Really needing to think, do I need to be practical, Lol.

 

I need to check insurance but this shouldn't be a problem and the ones I am looking at are ULEZ compliant, at least atm.

 

If anyone has any thoughts Re diesel and it's future, I am interested to hear. 

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, Tilt said:

I haven't even looked at one yet as I had set my mind on an A class but due to the fact they are everywhere and prices of them are stupid money .......

 

........ I am considering an E class coupe instead ...........

 

They seem to be one of the better value cars, (I can understand why) although still overpriced.

 

I was convinced that I was going petrol engine but comments about the smaller petrol engines needing to be revved, and not sounding great either, I may stick with diesel.

Liking the thought of a E250 (twin turbo). Really needing to think, do I need to be practical, Lol.

 

I need to check insurance but this shouldn't be a problem and the ones I am looking at are ULEZ compliant, at least atm.

 

If anyone has any thoughts Re diesel and it's future, I am interested to hear. 

 

Depends where you live and which cities you visit.  I gather all UK cities ULEZs are OK with Euro 6 diesel but there was rumour that Bristol was going ban or very heavily charge any diesel.  Some cities in Europe still plan to ban diesels completely ie Paris, Madrid and Athen in Europe.  I not sure Bristol introduced an inner inner are where diesels would be banned like this proposed map below.

 

There is a massively glut of Euro5 diesels becoming pariah cars and their values falling away sharply.  But this is just a fore taste of ICE cars in general plummiting in value as  EVs become massively cheaper on year as the manufacturing process, particularly Tesla just bring the price down and down every few months so that the comparative overall running costs just blow ICE cars out of the water. 

 

The considerable portion of high mileage drivers ie those that do well over 10k a year and are forced to work to 25p a mile running cost can virtually only do this with an EV as virtually only the likes of Dacia can get close to being able to be run for 25p a mile whereas a properly run EV can also get down to these levels I reckon. 

 

   

 

[J.R.]

On 15/03/2023 at 09:51, ruida_silva said:

On the screenshot, Red line is resistance, Blue line is support, Green line is what I think it will do.

 

What does the dark blue and light blue represent?

 

What does the red line going from 2015 to 2022 represent?

 

Where does the data come from?

 

My dog could have written the red & blue lines & the green squiggle, could you explain why yours would be any more plausible?

 

Without the confusion of the graph you are speculating that used car prices will drop and I agree with you, your green line indicates a drop of 30% over 6 months? I can't see it from this editting screen, I cant see it being that quick but yes the correction should be of that order, used car stock is normally a depreciating asset.

Edited 29 March, 2023 by J.R.

[ruida_silva]

17 minutes ago, J.R. said:

 

What does the dark blue and light blue represent?

 

What does the red line going from 2015 to 2022 represent?

 

Where does the data come from?

 

My dog could have written the red & blue lines & the green squiggle, could you explain why yours would be any more plausible?

 

Without the confusion of the graph you are speculating that used car prices will drop and I agree with you, your green line indicates a drop of 30% over 6 months? I can't see it from this editting screen, I cant see it being that quick but yes the correction should be of that order, used car stock is normally a depreciating asset.

Type in autotrader used car index and there’s your graph. The graph represents an average price of used cars

 

The red and blue lines I drew are as I said, resistance and support lines. If you don’t understand that then I can’t possibly explain on here, as I mentioned if people know trading/forex/crypto then those people would understand what those lines represent. But basically, the price went up as high as it did, came down slightly, went back up but no more than before, making that red resistance line more true (a double top sort of thing, google it)

 

As I said at the end, I don’t know WHEN it will happen, so the green line, which I could only draw on that bit of room at the end of the graph, is the prediction of what could happen in 3 months, 6 months maybe over a year. And no that isn’t an obvious prediction as everything that depreciates goes down eventually, but not to the extend that I think it will and hopefully within the next year 
 

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, ruida_silva said:

Type in autotrader used car index and there’s your graph. The graph represents an average price of used cars

 

The red and blue lines I drew are as I said, resistance and support lines. If you don’t understand that then I can’t possibly explain on here, as I mentioned if people know trading/forex/crypto then those people would understand what those lines represent. But basically, the price went up as high as it did, came down slightly, went back up but no more than before, making that red resistance line more true (a double top sort of thing, google it)

 

As I said at the end, I don’t know WHEN it will happen, so the green line, which I could only draw on that bit of room at the end of the graph, is the prediction of what could happen in 3 months, 6 months maybe over a year. And no that isn’t an obvious prediction as everything that depreciates goes down eventually, but not to the extend that I think it will and hopefully within the next year 
 

 

Graph for volume EVs only showing a relatively smaller drop that high value EVs as this is due to Tesla massively dropping the sales prices of their EVs which has affected those other EV sellers to the tune of 10% or more and add this to the economic downturn whilst not a technical recession is a massive hit on all but a few of the top percentage of earners.  I am happy to see it, not to bothered about my Zoe being hit by a grand or two drop, it is still a good (warm weather) transport at amazing low cost and I wanted to see those new Long Range EVs  ie Model 3 etc, that are over £40k currently, fall to less than that which it is looking like they will shortly.     

 

Edited 30 March, 2023 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

Real world Used cars prices are what actual private sellers can get for a car selling it to a private buyer, dealer or at auction.

What dealers / traders are advertising cars at sale for only matters if you are paying them that or someone else is. 

 

Looks like a lovely car for someone looking for one of these.

http://briskoda.net/forums/topic/511908-superb-ik-estate-20-tsi-dsg-280ps

There are others advertised in Briskoda and often owned by enthusiast of Skoda or other brands.