Beware the Ides of March - UK Budget Day 15th March 2023 - What do you expect and want to see ???

[lol-lol]

Mr Hunt's first budget as UK Chancellor.  What does he need to do to get the UK out of the Doldrums. 

 

1. UK is more in debt than it has ever been, £2.5T, up from £1T in 2010.
2. UK Citizens pay more of their income than since WW2, ie now 48% of the average persons income goes in Direct and Indirect Taxes.

 

But wait, there was a tax surplus last month ie Jan 2023 of £5B !!!!    Better times a head ??

 

But inflation was over 10% last year, likely to be more than 5% this year, so 16% up from 2 years ago with wages up for most half of that or less.  OMG.

 

Companies making Billions in profits while a fifth of the country are now in negative monthly territory ie bills hundred or thousands per year more than they are currently paid or receive !

   

What do we need to do?  Other than the obvious re-establishing key trade agreements, to get the UK off the bottom of the G7/G20 (bar Russia) economic growth table and get us back to when the UK had a good economic future.  Perhaps that was the 19th century but whenever it was we would like to get back to that footing for our kids sake. The current UK generations older, middle aged and young ones, is the first one where the following generations look like they will be poorer than than the previous generation. 

What do we need to do to fix ?

  

Edited 21 February, 2023 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

• Maybe Mr Hunt will choose to up personal tax allowance from the £12,570 for the 20% start point and £50,270 for the 40% start point nominal levels and even tweak the £1,073,100 life time allowance under pressure from quite a few Con MPs it is reported.
• Also under some scrutiny is the £48.2 Billion pounds worth of tax relief given on pension contributions when money is so tight at The Treasury with UK National debt hitting £2.5T, despite there being a £5B tax surplus last month (January 2023) after the Self Assessment payment upon the deadline month.
• Also still rumours that the up to £40K a year tax free allowance may be vastly reduced to raise revenue but that is a gamble as many might reduce their pension contributions and look to take up more salary sacrifice schemes for cars or nursery places etc.    
• Changes on 15th of March in the Budget may change considerable the 2023-2024 tax take but taking lots of tax means people spend less and UK business suffer even if the UK government has more money to try and pay down the massive UK debt with the interest payments soaring from a  billion  or so a month to a several billions pounds of interest per month.

 

Interesting times and choices for Hunt to make.

 

[Ootohere]

^^^ Personal allowances for England, Wales and Northern Ireland is what will be announced not the whole of the UK.

National Insurance he does though.

http://dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/autumn-statement-5-things-scots-28514606

 

Edited 25 February, 2023 by toot

[lol-lol]

44 minutes ago, toot said:

^^^ Personal allowances for England, Wales and Northern Ireland is what will be announced not the whole of the UK.

National Insurance he does though.   http://dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/autumn-statement-5-things-scots-28514606

 

 

My apologies.  Scotland has been quite closely aligned but with the Scots paying slightly more for those higher earners though hardly of a level that would make any decisions like where to live I would have thought.

 

Whilst the SNP will have their say after the budget speak in Westminster many all over the UK look with interest who will lead the SNP after the March leadership contest with 3 very different contestants in the competition. 

 

Interesting times who Hunt and Sunak will give a bit less pain to.  Business bleating on their tax going up from 19% to 25%.

 

Maybe 20% tax could be paid on the first 10% or so of a companies turnover and 30% when on any bit, like the energy companies, where the profit is more than 10% of turnover, something like that like us mega taxed individuals ???

 

[Ootohere]

@lol-lolactually with the latest taxes in Scotland it is not that high an earner paying more tax, likely on considerably less of a salary / income than you have. 

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63991541

 

Scottish Budget Bill 2023.

http://www.gov.scot/news/scottish-budget-bill-passed-1

 

The SNP stay out of the voting that does not affect Scotland. As to talking on matters, they are the 3rd biggest party in Westminster from a country with 8% of the UK population and what ever percentage of voters.

Edited 25 February, 2023 by toot

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, toot said:

@lol-lolactually with the latest taxes in Scotland it is not that high an earner paying more tax, likely on considerably less of a salary / income than you have. 

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63991541

Scottish Budget Bill 2023.

http://www.gov.scot/news/scottish-budget-bill-passed-1

The SNP stay out of the voting that does not affect Scotland. As to talking on matters, they are the 3rd biggest party in Westminster from a country with 8% of the UK population and what ever percentage of voters.

 

The amount of votes and the representation that translates to in Westminster is a complete joke.

 

Total SNP votes 1.242M and yet the got 48 seats ie less than 26k votes got them a Westminster seat.

 

Cons got 7 seats for nearly 700k votes and Labour got just 7 seats for over half a million votes, 73k votes per seat ie three times more votes per seat than the SNP.

 

SNP, I reckon, would have picked up several tens of thousands of votes where the main aim was to stop the Cons get a seat.  

 

SNP and Labour are in similar places on the political spectrum so I would have no real issue voting SNP if Labour was the third or fourth party with no real chance of winning.

 

I think England should be regarded as eleven regions of about 5M, Scotland as another Wales as another, NI perhaps as another before it eventually becomes part of a United Ireland as Nationalist increasingly become the democratic majority and within those 13/14 regions votes should be proportional within the region.  50 MPs per region.  Something like 48K votes, assuming 2 out of 3 vote a usual, would get a party and MP.   Last election SNP would have got a fairer 26 or so seats, Cons 286 seats ie neither would have had a majority government with their 44 or 45% of the vote respectively.  Perhaps there would never be a majority government again, or maybe with the predicted win of Labour with the next election ?      If Labour got the predicted 48% share of the vote then it would get over 400 seats is crazy the other way. 

     

Any road up.  Question is:-

1. Will Hunt just continue with the record tax burden per person currently being experienced ?   People in their 50s and 60s will continue to go part time or retire leading to low UK productivity.
2. Will Hunt soften the tax rise on business ?
3.  Might Hunt give us a bit of a bone and at least raise the start tax rate to something proper like £14k or £15k to help the poorest particularly ?
4. Maybe a combo of 2 and 3 above ?

With inflation running as it is there will be many UK people who become millionaires in the next year or two with all their assets, pension and property but are not exactly rich, such has the value of a pound and what it buys one is so diminished. 

 

[lol-lol]

On 25/02/2023 at 12:20, toot said:

@lol-lolactually with the latest taxes in Scotland it is not that high an earner paying more tax, likely on considerably less of a salary / income than you have. 

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63991541

 

Scottish Budget Bill 2023.

http://www.gov.scot/news/scottish-budget-bill-passed-1The SNP stay out of the voting that does not affect Scotland. As to talking on matters, they are the 3rd biggest party in Westminster from a country with 8% of the UK population and what ever percentage of voters.

 

 

I did not realise the Scottish tax rates had become so much more complicated than the Rest of GB.  Fort those that were not aware..  (table below)  .......

Like millions (circa 5M)  when one's gross salary surpasses , (after tax code tweaks for business miles etc), nominally £50K in England, Wales and apparently £43,663 in Scotland, one tends to seriously think of diverting more wages to pre PAYE taxation ie in to one's pension scheme. This has recently been tempered due to the severe damage of the Truss/Katang era to UK Gilts.

It may be quickly forgotten that the significant change for higher tax payers was the removals of the 1.25% extra NI being reversed.  This has been worth £10 per month per £10k salary that goes through PAYE.  I would hope most Higher Tax payer, I certainly do, wish this money, circa £13B for all taxpayers, maybe £3B for Higher tax payers,  did go to Nurses etc pay.      

Hunt has to keep raise money from somewhere but if workers, and pensioners are paying ever more tax they are going to want to see something for it rather than high energy prices, empty shelves and inflation much higher than wages rises that are paid out, with or without bonuses that do not make up big shortfall in base wage rise !    

 

The table shows the 2022 to 2023 Scottish Income Tax rates you pay in each band if you have a standard Personal Allowance of £12,570. You do not get a Personal Allowance if you earn over £125,140.

	Taxable income	Scottish tax rate
Personal Allowance	Up to £12,570	0%
Starter rate	£12,571 to £14,732	19%
Basic rate	£14,733 to £25,688	20%
Intermediate rate	£25,689 to £43,662	21%
Higher rate	£43,663 to £150,000	41%
Top rate	over £150,000	46%

 

Edited 26 February, 2023 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Budget week upon us.  The UK Chancellor is giving hints about getting the millions of non-working UK citizens who are of working age to work, or back to work in some cases.

 

1. Sounds likes some tweaks to Child Benefit or the money to help out on the Child Minding costs, friends who have the very young kids tell me they can spend going on for £1K a month per kid putting them in child nursery, wow. 
2. I would have thought some change in personal allowances, ie at least half keeping up with inflation/wage rise, would help incentivise keeping on working ie they get a bigger tax take but  but hey ho.
3. Fuel duty is somewhere Mr Hunt has a decision.  It is the most efficient tax to collect. But it feeds right in to inflation to, especially on diesel.  He could raise duty just on petrol as HMRC are already getting a whooping 53p excise duty plus some 28p from the VAT element so about 80 pence plus depending on where one buy ie the retail sale price.
4. When Hunty will go for any of the near £50 billion in tax avoidance on the non taxing of contributions of pay in to pension, we will see.  Pension funds with large UK Gilts components are quite poor investment at present but then what is a good investment ie not property or the stock market or even gold in the last year or so ?

 

Poor old Jezzer H has suddenly been diverted in to what to do about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank UK in which over 250 UK companies run their company finances so many may not be able to pay their staff this month without the UK Gov stepping in, the £85k guarantee on accounts is not going to help many of them that much with some have more like millions going through the SVB UK accounts to pay their bills and staff.  

 

I have cocked up this year as I have been booked in to client visit during budget time but should have time in the PM to get the Budget Notices out to the hundred staff that might be impacted professionally with the contents, primarily Excise duties that may effect import calculations.  Hope the budget is kind to you.  It is, of course, an opportunity for some to replan to avoid,not evade, some tax too.  I remain surprised that salary sacrifice avoids NI and that the 1.5% NI levy for improved social care was cancelled on higher earners and not replaced with something. 

 

Edited 12 March, 2023 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

UK economy saved !!

 

Lifetime pension allowance to go from £1.073M to over £1.5M, hurray.

 

And with Silicon Valley Bank being bought out by Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation for £1 that was a close call.

 

UK Gilts have got much stronger as putting money in banks has come under question, above the £85k guaranteed amount.  

 

Not long to wait now until the magic wand is waived, tomorrow after PMQs.

 

[Ootohere]

So if it is £1.8 million for the LTA on pension savings that is nice for those with Final Salary Pensions like Doctors, Civil Servants on with high salaries that are currently retiring early because other wise it costs them to keep working. 

Just getting to where it was 13 years back though.  

It was £1.5 million in 2006, £1.8 million in 2010 & £1.0 million in 2016. 

 

Smoke & mirrors and kidology, but good for the higher income workers.

 

 

Edited 14 March, 2023 by toot

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, toot said:

So if it is £1.8 million for the LTA on pension savings that is nice for those with Final Salary Pensions like Doctors, Civil Servants on with high salaries that are currently retiring early because other wise it costs them to keep working. 

Just getting to where it was 13 years back though.  

It was £1.5 million in 2006, £1.8 million in 2010 & £1.0 million in 2016. 

 

Smoke & mirrors and kidology, but good for the higher income workers.

 

 

 

I just wonder how this might be received tomorrow if it does come to pass when those many who have little to no pension pot and there here that the £1.073M pension pot freebie limit gets raised to close two million.

 

It will make it sounds like a millionaire's budget when they also see the daily charge before one even get one kWh of electricity goes up by 20%, and prescription charges and perhaps we will see diesel and petrol duty going up so the doubling of the pension fund limit from one to nearly two million.

 

At least pre-payment premium for electricity of 3.2% is going, about time.   Need to tackle the daily standing charge which at over 50p a day is outrageous as billing people for UK government's incompetence at allowing companies who should not be allowed to trade to do so.   

 

[@Lee]

I'm old enough to remember when the budget wasn't leaked. 

Has Hunt resigned yet?
 

 

 

 

Edited 15 March, 2023 by @Lee

[Ootohere]

The Speaker Lindsay Hoyle reprimanded the Chancellor in 2021 over the nonsense of leaks.

That was Rishi. 

 

Those that make their money Trading and Investing need the advance notice these days as the Insider Trading from info from mates in the Treasury was just too obvious.

Edited 15 March, 2023 by toot

[skomaz]

3 hours ago, @Lee said:

I'm old enough to remember when the budget wasn't leaked. 

Has Hunt resigned yet?
 

 

 

 

 

I'm old enough to remember a streaker in the snow at the Gold Cup at Cheltenham Festival - would have been around 1987/88 maybe?  It was cold enough for us watching from the stands fully clothed let alone naked...   (I worked in Cheltenham at the time so it seemed like a good idea to go at least once)

[lol-lol]

UK Budget 2023 Budget Notices.....   https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2023

 

I cannot remember a budget that was so focus a just a few small groups, some of them pretty damn wealthy, thinking of the massive sop to very high rate pension stuffers now allowed up to £60K a year in tax avoidance per year and no limit of how much one can stuff in the pension pot not £1.1M but no limit other than £60K a year plus the growth you get in the pension pot.

 

Bit for child minding, one sibling will be happy with tax breaks for film making but really, was the much else.

 

Steady as we go continuing on high and getting higher overall % taxation, crumbling health services.  A strange budget, cannot wait for the new tonight and papers tomorrow.

 

[Ootohere]

There are a few Senior Politicians and peers that are well invested in Rolls Royce doing the business with SMR Nuclear in the UK that have been cheered up. 

Boris, IDS, JRM & others.

 

As to the Carbon Capture there is more opportunity for Ineos / Sir Jim Ratcliffe to fill their boots. 

[@Lee]

Chris Giles, economics editor for the FT, sums it up.
 

 

Edited 15 March, 2023 by @Lee

[lol-lol]

UK FTSE 100 Stock Market down 300 or so points, in addition to the 300 it lost about a week ago but then so are other European stock markets.

 

Gilts, UK 2 year particularly has suddenly got much stronger, presumably the fear of cascade banking collapse on all but the too tib to fail banks.

 

Strange times.

 

Be interesting to put £5k in a single month in to pension and pay very little in thru PAYE, is that what Jeezer Hunt wants ??

 

But is it wise to even trust UK Gilts considering the current £2.5T which Hunt say the good news is that the UK's debt to GDP will stay at around 95%  and not go to 98% or close to 100% as feared ? 

 

Now the talk is turning to National Banks ie the Fed then BoE, ECB actually cutting rates even with inflation so high.

 

Jittery times.

 

[lol-lol]

The UK Budget today seemed like a whole heap of nothing for most people, many who really needed some measure to make the currently near unbearable financial situation a bit better.    Martin Lewis has just published this on his website...   https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-are-the-price-cap-unit-rates-/

 

Lecky a bit cheaper per unit but standing charge up so big power users, those of us charging EVs or having 12m swimming pool needing heating, it is not too bad at all.  Sounds like low volume users could see a rise due to the standing charge hike whilst high volume users could see a fall in their bill as the penny of per kWh will outweigh the daily charge rise.  Nice one Jezzer Hunt, bang on for fairness and environmental aims, not.   

 

DIRECT DEBIT: What are the average standing charges and unit rates for gas and electricity?

	Energy Price Guarantee rates from 1 April to 30 June 2023	Energy Price Guarantee rates from 1 January to 31 March 2023
Gas	Unit rate: 10.31p per kilowatt hour (kWh)   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 10.33p per kilowatt hour (kWh)   Standing charge: 28.49p per day
Electricity	Unit rate: 33.21p per kWh   Standing charge: 52.97p per day	Unit rate: 34.04p per kWh   Standing charge: 46.36p per day
Rates and standing charges are averages, which vary by region. Assumes payment by direct debit and includes VAT (at 5%). For those who pay each month after getting a bill, it's typically 6-8% higher.

• Prices vary by region – see regional direct debit rates and charges for 1 April to 30 June 2023

   

   

  What are the standing charges and unit rates for gas and electricity under The Energy Price Guarantee on direct debit for my region from 1 April to 30 June 2023?

  	Gas	Electricity
  North West	Unit rate: 10.32p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.72p per kWh   Standing charge: 51.42p per day
  Northern	Unit rate: 10.24p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 31.92p per kWh   Standing charge: 57.03p per day
  Yorkshire	Unit rate: 10.24p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.36p per kWh   Standing charge: 55.60p per day
  Northern Scotland	Unit rate: 10.27p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.56p per kWh   Standing charge: 58.98p per day
  Southern	Unit rate: 10.41p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 33.52p per kWh   Standing charge: 49.60p per day
  Southern Scotland	Unit rate: 10.27p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.91p per kWh   Standing charge: 61.67p per day
  North Wales & Mersey	Unit rate: 10.35p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 34.76p per kWh   Standing charge: 61.82p per day
  London	Unit rate: 10.32p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 34.68p per kWh   Standing charge: 38.18p per day
  South East	Unit rate: 10.34p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 34.18p per kWh   Standing charge: 47.21p per day
  Eastern	Unit rate: 10.20p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 33.98p per kWh   Standing charge: 43.66p per day
  East Midlands	Unit rate: 10.18p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.40p per kWh   Standing charge: 50.31p per day
  Midlands	Unit rate: 10.24p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.81p per kWh   Standing charge: 53.96p per day
  South Western	Unit rate: 10.52p per kWh   Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 32.79p per kWh   Standing charge: 58.28p per day
  South Wales	Unit rate: 10.47p per kWh    Standing charge: 29.11p per day	Unit rate: 33.28p per kWh   Standing charge: 53.83p per day

Here are the average unit rates for prepayment customers under the Government's new Energy Price Guarantee...

[@Lee]

Sorry but did Hunt say net migration was good?

How does he square that the the hard right Tories such as Braverman and the other nut cases? 

 

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, @Lee said:

Sorry but did Hunt say net migration was good?

How does he square that the the hard right Tories such as Braverman and the other nut cases? 

 

 

Facts are indisputable.  Hunt's number two had to acknowledge that the tiny bit of sickly growth the UK has is only tipped from slightly negative to slightly positive by the weight of migration, presumably those hundreds of thousands of Afghans, Hong Kong and Ukrainians that the UK has allowed mass migration from rather than the tenth of that from everywhere else who have to risk the 35 km rigid inflatable boat journey across the world's business shipping lanes. 

 

Tax avoidance for pension contribution can now reach stratospheric levels.  The current £48B per year could easily leap to well over £50B and High earners would have been to hear the non return of the 1.5% NI levy so another massive saving over what has gone before.  

 

Even the change in electricity unit rates and standing charge favours the more well off, those with big swimming pools to heat etc rather than those who struggle to pay for a shallow bath to wash their children. 

 

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

Hunt's number two had to acknowledge that the tiny bit of sickly growth the UK has is only tipped from slightly negative to slightly positive by the weight of migration,

 

 

Is that this guy who was blaming the people on Newsnight last night despite what the people were told?
 

 

 

[Ootohere]

Yesterday during the day when i watched John Glen MP it had me looking at his background, education, qualifications and work history.

So he can talk crap and not blink or have a red flush.

 

I had already thought why is that incompetent Victoria Atkins MP (Barrister) and holder of various government posts in the past outside No11 with the Chancellor.

Then later i watched her speaking,  so her skill is being shameless and willing to spout anything, anytime, anyplace. 

Edited 16 March, 2023 by toot

[lol-lol]

3 hours ago, @Lee said:

 

Is that this guy who was blaming the people on Newsnight last night despite what the people were told?
 

 

Yes.  He has good said to interviewer Ms VD that people voted for BREXIT and the fact they are 4% worse off in GDP per capita terms was part of the package of self determination ie of now being outside the EU (a actually obeying more EU rules than even before BREXIT of course).

 

I think the point was missed somewhat in that it was always going to be inevitable that there was going to be a significant financial hit unless the UK could virtually immediately replace the value of the Single Market with similar such access to other market ie to NAFTA, China or India.  No which were every going to happen in 5 years at least, and looking more like 10 or ever and the BREXITEERS were never honest about that in fact made a huge point there would be numbers like £350M a week for the NHS and other needed areas was in fact going to be a hole in the finances due to increase trade costs etc.......

 

  

[Ootohere]

No need for a whole new thread pre 2023 Autumn Budget Announcement which is being held as near to Winter as they get.

 

Guesses and wants are just that till the thin man stands and tries to give tweeks and financial bribes and promises to what they hope are people who will vote for the Conservatives & Unionists or give donations for services rendered by the Chancellor.