'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

[moley]

I'm not sure that the recent 5 year parliament rule would allow an autumn election and I certainly can't see Labour wanting one with the potential for such an uncertain outcome. Having said that, the centre of the Labour party would probably see it as an opportunity for the electorate to register its dislike of Corbyn and they could stand a chance of turfing him out. Alternately we could end up with a Corbyn led Labour party negotiating the terms of our Brexit or a Tory government with a larger majority, such is the unpredictability of the current state of politics.

I also thought the UK had a period of 2 years in which to trigger article 50 and with a nominal 5 year negotiating period after that, it could be 2023 before we're set free. Plenty of time for the EU leaders to concoct a sweetening deal for us to have a second vote.

It's interesting that the vote on this thread has remained a fairly consistent 55% leave 45% stay, not sure how representative of the wider electorate that is.

In previous years the PM has called a snap election. Ted Heath in the '70's called an election, as a vote of confidence, he lost. The best time to call an election is when the opposition are in a worst situation than your own party.

[jlwah]

In previous years the PM has called a snap election. Ted Heath in the '70's called an election, as a vote of confidence, he lost. The best time to call an election is when the opposition are in a worst situation than your own party.

Agree it might be a good idea, just don't know whether the 5 year parliament law allows for PM's to call a snap election at a time of their choosing. 

[trundlenut]

I'm not sure that the recent 5 year parliament rule would allow an autumn election and I certainly can't see Labour wanting one with the potential for such an uncertain outcome. Having said that, the centre of the Labour party would probably see it as an opportunity for the electorate to register its dislike of Corbyn and they could stand a chance of turfing him out. Alternately we could end up with a Corbyn led Labour party negotiating the terms of our Brexit or a Tory government with a larger majority, such is the unpredictability of the current state of politics.

I also thought the UK had a period of 2 years in which to trigger article 50 and with a nominal 5 year negotiating period after that, it could be 2023 before we're set free. Plenty of time for the EU leaders to concoct a sweetening deal for us to have a second vote.

It's interesting that the vote on this thread has remained a fairly consistent 55% leave 45% stay, not sure how representative of the wider electorate that is.

IIRC there just needs to be a vote in parliament for an election with a 2/3 majority to overrule the 5 year thing.

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[jlwah]

IIRC there just needs to be a vote in parliament for an election with a 2/3 majority to overrule the 5 year thing.

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Yes, you're right, just checked the parliament website and it says:

Summary of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011

The Bill fixes the date of the next General Election at 7 May 2015, and provides for five-year fixed terms. It includes provisions to allow the Prime Minister to alter the date by up to two months by Order. There are also two ways in which an election could be triggered before the end of the five-year term:

• if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found
• or if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the House or without division

[domhnall]

No one will be kicked out, but there would be a strong push for another Scottish referendum that's for sure

If it's a vote to remain then the promises of 2014 have been delivered and there are no grounds for an indyref 2.

If it's a leave vote then the promise that staying in the UK would secure our EU membership is dead in the water and that's where the indyref 2 argument comes in as it's a major change on what was promised.

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[moley]

If it's a vote to remain then the promises of 2014 have been delivered and there are no grounds for an indyref 2.

If it's a leave vote then the promise that staying in the UK would secure our EU membership is dead in the water and that's where the indyref 2 argument comes in as it's a major change on what was promised.

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In the 2014 referendum the leave the UK Campaign knew that leaving the UK meant Scotland would no longer be in the EU and would have to apply to join the EU.

What would happen to any Scots who voted to leave the EU?

[domhnall]

In the 2014 referendum the leave the UK Campaign knew that leaving the UK meant Scotland would no longer be in the EU and would have to apply to join the EU.

What would happen to any Scots who voted to leave the EU?

With respect, having discussed that point in a number of legal conferences with a number of leading European judges and academics I can tell you no one knew that would happen. There is no mechanism in law for doing that and it would have been a political judgement call on whether to expel Scotland.

But it didn't happen. The two top repeatedly raised issues were currency and EU membership..my point is that the message was vote to stay in the UK to guarantee continued EU membership. 18 months later that's all been put at risk.

Looks like across the UK the referendum is finely balanced. The remain campaign is well ahead in Scotland, behind in England, so there's a real possibility that the UK could vote to remain but England will vote to leave.

That might cause a lot of discontent. It will make things interesting.

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[Aspman]

TLDR

 

Either faction likes to portray each vote in black and white.

 

Yes = land of milk and honey

No = an eternity of devil worship and starvation

 

and vice versa.

 

The truth is, on average you'll probably just as bad or well off as you are now, but in different ways.

 

The EU isn't as bad as is made out by the red top press.

But it is an expensive fraudulent bureaucratic hell hole.

Corbin is probably right when he says that the Tories will tear up employment protection without the EU.

That'll make more jobs, but they'll be lower paid and you'll change more often.

 

Toss a coin. it's a good a way of choosing as any right now.

[domhnall]

Tldr?

Ah ok. Found it. Here's short version. Moley was talking *******s. Short enough?

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Edited 14 April, 2016 by domhnall

[domhnall]

New poll shows EU vote on a knife edge and labour ahead of tories

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/eu-vote-knife-edge-poll-shows-labour-ahead-uk

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[moley]

 Moley was talking *******s. Short enough?

Referring to which part? 

[lol-lol]

New poll shows EU vote on a knife edge and labour ahead of tories

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/eu-vote-knife-edge-poll-shows-labour-ahead-uk

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Interesting that bit...

 

The number of people who think David Cameron should stand down following the referendum has rocketed by 13 points to 31 per cent.   His waning support is reflected in the backing of the political parties, the poll also suggests.  It found Labour three points ahead of the Tories on 34 per cent, a marked difference since December when David Cameron's party was 10 points ahead.

[domhnall]

Referring to which part? 

 

read the long version (where I referenced EU judges etc) the short version was on request from Aspman. I'll offer a third (middle version here), our EU membership in 2014 was a political call, you can't predict in advance what politicians will do but the eminent experts all reckoned no EU member would veto it, especially not Spain as it would lose them access to too much sea (fishing grounds)

[vindaloo]

I would say (getting increasingly cynical here....)

 

A change of this magnitude will not be cheap. Likening it to a firm restructuring or moving HQ.... There are major up-front costs and ongoing commitments that are unlikely to be properly estimated or eventually recouped.

 

I also believe that there is huge money to be made in changing the UK's relationships with EU. The average person will not make a penny but for corporations and businesses in the right sectors, there would be huge pay days ahead.

 

In short, a waste of money (that we haven't even got) and only good for the few that have the money and influence to position themselves to pig out on the takings; to the detriment of the rest of us.

 

J.

[swedishskoda]

From a distance, Jeremy Corbyn seems to be a most likable fellow whom I would love to meet for a chat. I'm less certain that he's the right person to rebuild the Labour party after the Blairite disaster or that he's shrewd enough to make a good PM. He very much resembles our current Swedish PM; a former welder and union man, a nice guy but weak and unconvincing in his present position.

 

Nevertheless, Corbyn's argument the other day for a Yes vote seems irrefutable:

 

"Just imagine what the Tories would do to workers’ rights here in Britain if we voted to leave the EU in June. They’d dump rights on equal pay, working time, annual leave for agency workers, and on maternity pay, as fast as they could get away with it. It would be a bonfire of rights that Labour governments secured within the EU.
Not only that, it wouldn’t be a Labour government negotiating a better settlement for working people with the EU. It would be a Tory government, quite possibly led by Boris Johnson and backed by Nigel Farage, that would negotiate the worst of all worlds: a free market free-for-all shorn of rights and protections."
 

[Scribbler]

 

Nevertheless, Corbyn's argument the other day for a Yes vote seems irrefutable:

 

 

Ah yes the man who made a career of being uncompromising and had a very negative view and was anti EU for the best part of his adult life. Are we now expected to trust this disingenuous twist in his opinion? But i forget he's in the Labour Party so should have been well briefed on making massive U-turns look like subtle shifts in opinion. He's entitled to change his opinion but if you don't spot the hypocrisy then you wont understand why the Labour Party have been deathly silent on the whole EU issue up until now. I think he must have been waterboarded to get to a pro EU stance you can almost see the gritted teeth he is speaking through. Either that or he is as fickle and hapless as the plasticine Milibland he replaces. The Tories are hardly covering themselves in glory either with the massive Gaff of getting Germany to Print the pro EU propaganda at the tune of 9.3 Million, Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on Pro or Brexit you must admit that money could have been better spent. Low and behold old 'Jobs and Growth' expert Chucka Amuna has popped back out of the closet to front the Remain campaign another tick in the box for leaving if ever i saw one.

[vindaloo]

Ah yes the man who made a career of being uncompromising and had a very negative view and was anti EU for the best part of his adult life. Are we now expected to trust this disingenuous twist in his opinion? But i forget he's in the Labour Party so should have been well briefed on making massive U-turns look like subtle shifts in opinion. He's entitled to change his opinion but if you don't spot the hypocrisy then you wont understand why the Labour Party have been deathly silent on the whole EU issue up until now. I think he must have been waterboarded to get to a pro EU stance you can almost see the gritted teeth he is speaking through. Either that or he is as fickle and hapless as the plasticine Milibland he replaces. The Tories are hardly covering themselves in glory either with the massive Gaff of getting Germany to Print the pro EU propaganda at the tune of 9.3 Million, Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on Pro or Brexit you must admit that money could have been better spent. Low and behold old 'Jobs and Growth' expert Chucka Amuna has popped back out of the closet to front the Remain campaign another tick in the box for leaving if ever i saw one.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude

 

Might be the only excitement one can get out of this whole sorry mess.

 

If Farty Pants gets in, in the USA and Britain BrExits, I'd imagine, Canada could fill up quite quicky.

 

J.

[swedishskoda]

Ah yes the man who made a career of being uncompromising and had a very negative view and was anti EU for the best part of his adult life. Are we now expected to trust this disingenuous twist in his opinion?

 

Well, even a blind hen sometimes fins a grain. My post was not about Corbyn's qualities, just that his predictions regarding the short-time consequences of Brexit seems more than plausible. Some people may think that this will be a reasonable price to pay since Brexit will lead to other gains. I'm among those who doubt this. As vindaloo wrote recently, if Brexit leads to gains, the average person will not make a penny.

[Huskoda]

I find it very sad how many people seem to think isolation (which as has been said will be extremely expensive and paid for entirely by the tax payer) is a good way forward. Corbyn, for all his faults, is bang on about the rights bonfire. A huge number of both employee and consumer rights come entirely from the EU and I am shocked by the number of low paid people who are itching to lose these rights for the perceived 'benefits'.

 

Are people really so naive as to think the UK will enact better laws to protect the common man? They could already do it at any time. The EU provides a baseline, not an upper limit. That they haven't for many things like working time and holiday pay says it all.

 

Also, what, on June 24th are all immigrants going to be deported? Not a chance. The country depends too much on them. Many are very well integrated. I know a lot of EU immigrants and every single one works hard and pays taxes, to support the lazy brits that cannot be arsed to do a job (I have seen this enough in person), not because the job doesn't exist.

 

I think its crazy to think we can shut the door to our neighbours and be better off. The government has even been rather clever here in that even a remain vote would require a renegotiation of terms with the EU regarding the hot topics.

 

I cannot see leaving the EU as a positive thing for me or anyone I know.

[gadgetman]

getting Germany to Print the pro EU propaganda at the tune of 9.3 Million

Not entirely true.

The leaflet was printed by the UK printing company Williams Lea (who print all of the government's leaflets/media), which is owned by the German firm Deutsche Post DHL, which in turn is 21% owned by the German government

[Fab Estate]

I am sure the Kinnock family would like me to vote in favour of the EU and also Mr Cameron who will get a job in the EU when he departs from No 10, but we are one of the leading nations within the EU. They need us more than we need them.

[gadgetman]

Some of the fact checked stats can be found in the following links.

I think some will be surprised

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35603388

http://www.itv.com/news/topic/remain-or-leave/

http://ukandeu.ac.uk

[swedishskoda]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude

 

Might be the only excitement one can get out of this whole sorry mess.

 

Reminds me of what Tony Judt wrote in one of his more caustic comments on Blair and the blairites: That the English "...are the only people who can experience schadenfreude at their own misfortunes".

[jlwah]

I find it very sad how many people seem to think isolation (which as has been said will be extremely expensive and paid for entirely by the tax payer) is a good way forward. 

 

Why do you say 'isolation'? You wouldn't say the USA was in isolation would you?

 

We won't be isolated, we will simply extend the number of countries we have direct relations with as well as the EU. We have a substantial trade deficit, not only with Europe but most of our other trading partners, so it's hard to imagine why any of them would want to put trade restrictions or tariffs in place. 

[swedishskoda]

Why do you say 'isolation'? You wouldn't say the USA was in isolation would you?

 

Maybe not presently, but the (otherwise disparate) messages from Trump and Sanders indicate that the USA may well choose an isolationist path (as they've done before). The "specil relationship" may turn out to be not quite as special as people think.