'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

[swedishskoda]

UK's Top Trading Partners 2015

 

USA

Germany

Swirzerland

China    etc

 

Maybe the Politicians and Civil Servants and Business's trading will catch on quicker than the general public.

 

Switzerland? As Harry Lime said: "In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." Not much of a basis for trading.

 

Taking a closer look I find that "precious metals" account for the largest share of Swiss imports from the UK. However, as far as I know there's no UK mining producing precious metals. I guess that City companies act as middlemen. But will they continue to do so after a Brexit? Or will Switzerland find suppliers elsewhere?

Edited 13 May, 2016 by swedishskoda

[lol-lol]

Switzerland? As Harry Lime said: "In Switzerland they had brotherly love - they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." Not much of a basis for trading.

Taking a closer look I find that "precious metals" account for the largest share of Swiss imports from the UK. However, as far as I know there's no UK mining producing precious metals. I guess that City companies act as middlemen. But will they continue to do so after a Brexit? Or will Switzerland find suppliers elsewhere?

 

That surprised me too as although we do quite a lot of customs entries to Switzerland it is oft high value aerospace parts and not so much volume ie weight and cubic meters of cargo.  "Importing"  aircraft and such like can distort value stats whilst they pay no import duty or VAT usually. Depends how you measure such things, what was that they said about statistics, Lies, Damn Lies and............

(Statistics).  

[Ootohere]

Precision Products. Sweden was big in Balls as is Switzerland.

 They are like Norway & have lots of Electricity / Hydro Electricity, and during WW2 were what kept the War going, Ball Bearings being what every mechanical product needs to operate, nothing turns smoothly or even runs without ball bearing, and you need lots of energy to produce ball bearings.

It was very very important to Britain during the war that the Ball Bearings could get to the Factories from Switzerland & Sweden, maybe more so Sweden who had the Iron Ore, 

or there would have been no Tanks, Vehicles, Machinery to Build Tanks and Vehicles,Ships, Planes, just anything.

No weapons, no war, no United Kingdom of Britain & Northern Ireland, just already part of German Europe 72 years ago.

Or maybe it would all have been called Ireland.

 

The Swiss are very good with balls. (metal balls)

Russian, Germany, Britain, France etc are crap at making Ball Bearings, or they were, now they are crap at manufacturing Electronics and seals and chain tensioners.

Britain or actually Scotland produces lots of Heavy Steel Constructions & Machinery like Pumps, Generators etc, 

Scotlands Wealthiest Companies being The Wood Group, Weir Group, Clyde Blowers Capital, Aggreko etc,

also the largest manufacturers of the Fracking Machinery used around the World.

 

http://wib-bearings.com

http://jesa.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Switzerland

 

But Switzerland are Trading Partners, and traders never need to see the goods, they trade, Like Money Traders do, 

Currency, Pork Bellies, Commodity Trading just like happens in London, Buy, Sell, Buy and Sell and never own or pay for what you Trade in, and sell your Financial Services.  Launder other peoples money, change the currencies for them, bank their ill gotten gains.

As said this week the United Kingdom has one of the most corrupt banking systems in the world.

The British Government allowing it while decrying other Countries and Tax Havens.  Many being British Dependencies.

Edited 13 May, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[swedishskoda]

It was very very important to Britain during the war that the Ball Bearings could get to the Factories from Switzerland & Sweden.

 Yup, it's estimated that 15 % of wartime ball bearing demand in the UK was shipped from Sweden (and a large part of that was small precision bearings vital for the arms industry) But it was a risky trade due to the Skagerrak blockade upheld by the Germans. Read more here: http://www.econhist.gu.se/digitalAssets/1341/1341645_golson.pdf (and apologies for going OT).

[Scribbler]

 Yup, it's estimated that 15 % of wartime ball bearing demand in the UK was shipped from Sweden (and a large part of that was small precision bearings vital for the arms industry) But it was a risky trade due to the Skagerrak blockade upheld by the Germans. Read more here: http://www.econhist.gu.se/digitalAssets/1341/1341645_golson.pdf (and apologies for going OT).

 

Very good meatballs too but I think they will continue to be served in the UK should we decide to brexit. I like sweeden and the sweedish very much and its a

shame that all EU members aren't like Sweden. but alas they are not and we would do well not to be shackled to the likes of Turkey.

[Ootohere]

I like Turkey very much as well, white and brown meat.

I hope there are no embargo's on Turkey, Swedish Meatballs and other such products. 

French Fries, Belgium Chocolates etc.

 

This is becoming worrying now if any food with the name of a country is banned by Nigel Farage the future Prime Minister of 

the United Kingdom of Bigotry.

[swedishskoda]

Very good meatballs too but I think they will continue to be served in the UK should we decide to brexit. I like sweeden and the sweedish very much and its a

shame that all EU members aren't like Sweden. but alas they are not and we would do well not to be shackled to the likes of Turkey.

 

I guess that you'll have to put up with IKEA (OK, their meatballs are rather decent but every Swede would tell yout that "Mom's Meatballs" are the best) even after a Brexit. And hopefully Clas Ohlson, the store that turn men into boys, will prevail too.

Sadly, the Swedish Govt. seems to be willing to accept almost anything from Turkey these days out of fear that more refugees from Syria would knock on our door. Had other EU members been as generous as Sweden (and Germany) were last year, it would have been much easier to keep Erdogan at bay.

[Huskoda]

The most likely outcome following a leave would be we stayed in the EU after we've renegotiated our position with the EU.

I think this is the most sensible outcome.

[Scribbler]

I think this is the most sensible outcome.

 

Its the only outcome that makes sense for all parties. Its only a shame that the EU didn't take us seriously and allow renegotiations but we all know its impossible to change things from within the EU they need to have their arm twisted. Lest get the Vote to leave sorted which I suspect will trigger referendums in the other member states and then we can get round a table and try and get back to a common trade agreement.

[swedishskoda]

I'd rather twist the arms of Messrs. Cameron, Orbán, Fico, and Ms. Szydło (to name just a few) that prefer to pick the raisins from the cake for the benefit of themselves and their cronies. Wish we could recreate the EU that was 25 years ago, when Jacques Delors was president of the European Commission and actually managed to uphold a vision of co-operation for mutual benefit.

[gadgetman]

Its the only outcome that makes sense for all parties. Its only a shame that the EU didn't take us seriously and allow renegotiations but we all know its impossible to change things from within the EU they need to have their arm twisted. Lest get the Vote to leave sorted which I suspect will trigger referendums in the other member states and then we can get round a table and try and get back to a common trade agreement.

I would assume this would lead to a 2nd referendum to ratify any such deal?

That's one of the reasons Grass Roots Out & Vote Leave don't get on as GRO have no interest in staying even if we get a much better deal

[lol-lol]

Just received this update as a Stakeholder (ie someone who has to technically implement these FTAs within the customs declaration process) from the UK Gov Department BIS on their work within the EU on new FTAs to add the the 53 we already have in place.  We would be back to square one if we left the EU on the 53 current FTAs plus below..

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Department of Business, Innovation and Skills

 

May 2016

Dear all,  It was great to see many of you at our stakeholder meeting in January when we could update you on the successes of the Nairobi WTO Ministerial Conference and other recent developments. While many of you will have seen the note of that meeting, the update below covers the key developments in EU trade policy since our last written update (November 2016). And there’s certainly a lot to report on.  Beyond the Nairobi Conference, the highlights for me from this period include the conclusion of negotiations on an FTA with Vietnam, the announcement of negotiations launching with the Philippines, the launch of scoping studies for FTAs with Australia and New Zealand and just in the last few days agreement in Council on a negotiating mandate for a modernised EU-Mexico “Global Agreement” and an exchange of market access offers (goods, services and procurement) between the EU and Mercosur. And most significantly, politically and economically, we are also pushing hard to conclude the TTIP and EU-Japan negotiations in 2016.  I hope you find this update useful. As ever, we are keen for feedback on how we keep you up to date and do feel free to contact us if you have any questions or issues you want to raise with us about EU trade negotiations.

Kindest regards

Ian Ascough

 

Stakeholder Update, May 2016

 

EU-US (TTIP)

The latest (13^th) negotiating round took place from 25-29 April. The round was productive and focused on technical work to consolidate negotiating texts. The Commission issued a helpful progress statement and the EU and US chief negotiators described the round as “very productive” and agreed that TTIP was “well on track to finish this year”.  US President Obama visited London on 22-24 April and then Germany on 24-25 April to open the Hannover Messe (a trade fair).  While in Germany, Barack Obama and Angela Merkel reiterated the need to complete TTIP, and the benefits it would bring.

The Commission, as part of its commitment to transparency, has published various documents related to the negotiations at:  http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1230#

The ambition is to conclude negotiations under the Obama Administration. 

 

EU-Japan

The latest (16^th) negotiating round was held in Tokyo from 11 to 15 April. We expect Japan’s Upper House election to go ahead in early July and for TPP to be considered early in the autumn Diet session.  With these two out of the way, material progress on the EU-Japan negotiation should be possible in the autumn. We hope to use the Japan-hosted G7 Summit latest this month to inject momentum. UK priorities are food and drink, procurement, automotive, pharmaceuticals, and the removal of Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs), but please let us know of any other concerns.

 

EU-India

The EU-India Summit took place in Brussels on 30 March 2016. Hopes of an announcement on re-launching FTA negotiations between the EU and India faded in the run-up to the Summit as it became clear that India was not interested in liberalising its services markets as part of these negotiations – a key ask of the UK and many other EU Member States. We will continue to urge both sides to maintain dialogue and we will continue to work with India on the benefits of liberalising trade, including in services.

 

EU-Canada

The negotiations for the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada concluded in September 2014.  The CETA text is available on the Commission’s website at: ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/.  CETA will deliver considerable benefits to the UK: full tariff liberalisation on all non-agricultural products; greatly improved market access for food and drink; greater ability to win procurement contracts at the Federal and sub-national levels of government; greater opportunities in major services sectors such as financial services, telecommunications, energy and maritime transport; and strengthened IP protection for the life sciences products.  Legal scrubbing of the text was complete on 29^th February, including agreement on revisions to the investment protection text.  This is based on the proposals which the Commission published in the autumn for TTIP and includes provisions which further clarify the right of governments to regulate in the public interest and introduce a new permanent Investment Court System (ICS) to resolve disputes between states and investors.   We hope that the benefits of CETA will come online in early 2017. As part of its campaign to raise awareness of the changes and the new opportunities that CETA will present, UKTI will soon be publishing a report for businesses on the opportunities CETA will provide across a number of key sectors.   We will work to ensure that CETA remains a priority for the new Government of Canada and we will continue to work with them to move as quickly as possible towards implementation.

 

Australia and New Zealand

The European Commission is in the process of producing scoping studies and impact assessments on these FTAs.  These should be ready by the end of the year, after which the Commission can seek a mandate from Member States to formally begin negotiations.  The European Commission has launched a 3 month public consultation on these FTAs, with a closing date of 3 June (link to the consultation).  We will conduct our own survey of UK businesses later this year, to complement the survey we conducted in November 2015.

 

China

Negotiations for an EU-China investment agreement started in early 2014.  These negotiations continue, with the 9^th round taking place in January 2015 and the 10th round held in April.  The negotiators have reached convergence on the scope of the agreement, although subsequent progress – while being made – has become more difficult now attention has turned to the technical detail.  The Commission will soon release the joint text and a written report on the latest negotiating round.  The investment agreement remains a symbolic milestone towards a future free trade agreement between the EU and China.  The biggest risk to substantive progress in 2016 will be the issue of granting China market economy status in the WTO on which we are awaiting a legislative proposal from the European Commission.  The Commission is undertaking an impact assessment of the economic impacts of granting MES as part of their consideration of this issue, which we welcome.  The Trade Commissioner has also said the Commission services will be looking at policies which might mitigate any adverse effects of MES on EU industry.  The Government will look carefully at the Commission’s proposal in the light of the impact assessment and wider trade and international political context, including compliance with international commitments.  For these reasons, the government has not contributed to the consultation.   It is important to note, if China is granted MES, the Commission will still be able to pursue anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases and impose measures where evidence of dumping or subsidy is found, as currently happens against Russia, for example, which has been granted MES.

 

EU-Vietnam

Whilst the expected gains for UK exporters are small compared to bigger FTAs, estimated at around £20m a year in the long term, the agreement is significant for certain sectors and as a stepping stone towards an eventual trade agreement with the whole region (an EU-ASEAN FTA, estimated to be worth €29.5bn per year to the EU as a whole - £3bn per year to the UK). The Vietnamese PM and Trade Commissioner Malmström announced conclusion of the agreement on 2nd December 2015.  This is an ambitious agreement, which will eliminate nearly all tariffs (over 99%), open up Vietnam’s government procurement market, provide good access for services and set a high bar for other ASEAN FTAs.   As with CETA, the EU-Vietnam FTA includes the European Commission’s new investment protection and Investment Court System provisions.  The provisional text of the agreement can be found on the Commission’s website. As the legal scrub, translation work and ratification still need to be completed, we anticipate the trade agreement will not be implemented before the end of 2017.

 

EU-Singapore

Negotiations on this FTA concluded in October 2014.  ‘Legal scrubbing’ of the whole text was completed in May 2015.  However, the FTA was formally submitted to the Court of Justice of the European Union on 10 July 2015 for a review of competence.  It is not clear when the Court will publish its opinion.  The EU-Singapore FTA is an important deal with a key trading partner and is another building block towards an eventual EU-ASEAN agreement.  Although the EU-Singapore FTA is small in itself, worth about £60 m annually to the UK, UKTI is currently identifying the key opportunities the FTA will bring to UK business in preparation for raising awareness of these around the UK. 

 

EU-Philippines

On 22nd December the European Commission and the Government of the Philippines jointly announced agreement to start negotiations on an EU-Philippines FTA.  Both sides committed publicly to conclude an agreement that covered elimination of customs duties and other barriers to trade, services and investment, access to public procurement markets, and additional disciplines in the area of competition and protection of intellectual property rights.  The first round of negotiations is due to take place towards the end of May, focusing initially on services and investment.

 

EU-Indonesia

Scoping on the EU-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA – i.e. FTA) was completed in April 2016, after initial efforts in 2012 stalled.  The Commission is expected to seek Council approval to launch later this year.

 

EU-Thailand

No formal rounds of negotiations have been scheduled since the third round took place in December 2013, due to the political situation in the country.  An FTA could not be agreed in the absence of a democratically elected government. 

 

EU-Malaysia

EU-Malaysia FTA negotiations were paused in mid-2012 due to domestic elections. Following the elections, Malaysia indicated that it might be willing to resume negotiations with the EU.  The UK is encouraging the continuation of FTA negotiations once both parties are in a position to dedicate the required levels of ambition and effort.  We remain interested in views from business stakeholders on priorities for an FTA with Malaysia, whilst we continue to monitor developments towards the potential continuation of negotiations.

 

EU-Mercosur

The UK continues to be a strong supporter of an EU-Mercosur FTA, which could boost the UK economy by £2.5bn annually.   On 8 April 2016, Commissioner Cecilia Malmström held a successful meeting with Rodolfo Nin Novoa, Foreign Minister of Uruguay.  This led to confirmation that the EU and Mercosur would exchange market access offers on 11 May 2016.  This exchange has now taken place and specifies ways to increase mutual openness to each other's goods and services, including in public tenders.  We believe that an exchange now provides a window of opportunity to resume talks and agree an ambitious deal.The detail of the goods offer, particularly as it relates to agricultural products and biofuels, is sensitive and the European Commission is aware of concerns raised by various parties, primarily in agriculture.  The UK is not immune to these sensitivities, but has been encouraging both sides to get back to the negotiating table which now has happened.

 

EU-Mexico agreement modernisation

The current EU-Mexico trade agreement has been in force since October 2000 for goods and 2001 for services.  In light of the significant advances made by Mexico’s economy since the agreement came into force, EU and Mexican leaders have confirmed their strong interest in a comprehensive and ambitious modernisation of the trade pillar of the Global Agreement.  The EU’s negotiating mandate was recently agreed by the Council.

 

EU-Andean

The EU and its Andean partners – Colombia and Peru – finalised negotiations in 2010.  Trade provisions of the agreement have been provisionally applied with Peru as of 1 March 2013 and with Colombia as of 1 August 2013. On 17th July 2014 negotiations were concluded with Ecuador for its accession to the EU-Andean trade agreement.  Both Colombia and Peru have now formally approved the accession. In April the Commission put forward a proposal for a Council Decision on signing and conclusion of Ecuador’s accession.  Once in place, this agreement will give EU firms full tariff liberalisation across many sectors.  The full text for Ecuador’s accession to the trade agreement between the EU and Colombia and Peru is available on the Commission’s website at: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1156.

 

EU- Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement

Negotiations for an EU-Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement concluded on 11 March 2016.  The agreement includes three main chapters on political dialogue, cooperation and sector policy dialogue as well as trade and trade cooperation.  There are no commitments to reduce tariffs in this agreement but rather it provides a framework for constructive dialogue and improved cooperation between the EU and Cuba.

 

Tunisia

The EU-Tunisia DCFTA negotiations were launched by the EU Trade Commissioner, the Tunisian Prime Minister and the Tunisian Minister of Trade in Tunis on 13 October.   The EU and Tunisia held the second round of negotiations from 18-22 April.  We are awaiting a full readout on that meeting from the Commission although initial indications are that the talks were positive and covered the full range of issues. The next round will take place in November, with the aim of exchanging offers in 2017. 

 

European Neighbourhood

The UK and EU continue their policy of non-recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and restrictions on Crimean exports, imports and investment are in place.  Sanctions on Russia also remain in place including an arms embargo and restrictions on some dual use technologies, financial sanctions against designated Russian entities, and restrictions on exports of high tech goods and services in the energy sector.  The EU agreed on 2^nd March to extend Tier II sanctions until September 2016. The latest position can be found on the UK Government website at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/doing-business-in-russia-and-ukraine-sanctions-latest   The provisional application of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area came into force on 1^st January 2016.  Russia reacted to this by suspending its preferences for Ukrainian imports and enacting a ban on Ukrainian agricultural products.  Russia has introduced a ban on transit of Ukrainian goods through Russia by road to China and other Eurasian Economic Union member states.  Ukraine has put in place a reciprocal ban.  The Commission is currently investigating opportunities to further support the Ukrainian economy in light of these additional pressures.   It is also worth noting the recent Dutch referendum which resulted in a rejection of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement by 61% of the voters. It is as yet unknown how this vote will impact upon the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. We must wait and see how the Dutch Government chooses to respond. However, in the meantime, as the DCFTA is provisionally applied, Ukraine and the EU can continue to benefit from it.

 

WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement

The Trade Facilitation Agreement is moving steadily closer to becoming part of the WTO rule book –the Agreement will enter into force when two-thirds of WTO Members have completed their ratification processes and submitted their instruments of acceptance.  Albania and Montenegro both ratified the agreement on 10 May bringing the total number of ratifications to date to 79 – just 30 short of the total needed to allow the agreement to enter into force.  Other notable ratifications in the last few weeks include Russia and India.   It is estimated that, once implemented, the TFA will add over £70bn annually to the global economy by easing the regulatory burden of trading across borders.  Of this, the UK would expect to see benefits of up to £1bn annually.

 

WTO Ministerial Conference and MC10 in Nairobi

Since our last written update, the 10th WTO Ministerial Conference has taken place in Nairobi (from 15th-19th December 2015).  The Ministerial was a success, agreeing substantive outcomes on agriculture, cotton and development. The key element in agriculture is the export competition outcome, the centre-piece of the Nairobi Package, but there were also Decisions on development, relating to services and rules of origin, focused on the needs of Least Developed Countries (LDCs).  MC10 also saw the Accessions of two LDCs – Afghanistan and Liberia.  In the margins of MC10, agreement was reached on expanding the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), a plurilateral agreement in high-tech goods.  Under this agreement, UK exports of approximately £4 billion stand to gain zero tariff treatment, benefiting UK exporters some £62 million annually in tariff savings, and with a projected boost of £113 million in sales.    In the Nairobi Ministerial Declaration, WTO Members agreed to disagree on whether to reaffirm the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), so the Ministerial Declaration reflects different views rather than a consensus.  The Ministerial Declaration recognised that some Members will wish to identify and discuss new issues within the WTO.  While any multilateral negotiation on new issues will still require consensus, this opens the door to discussion and moves away from the all-or-nothing approach that has constrained the WTO’s ability to deliver in the past.

 

Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA)

The Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) remains a priority negotiation for the UK. Membership of the agreement now stands at 23 (the EU counts as 1). Good progress was made during the 17th TiSA negotiating round from 10 to 15 April, particularly on Financial Services, Telecoms, E-commerce, and the temporary movement of services professionals (“Mode 4”), with substantial text parts stabilised. The focus of the negotiations has started to shift towards the round of revised market access offers which are due to be submitted in May.    The next round of negotiations is scheduled from 26 May until 3 June, and a TiSA Ministerial meeting will take place on 1 June in the margins of the OECD MCM in Paris. TiSA participants are working to an ambitious work plan which aims to stabilise the key chapters by July 2016 and the remaining texts by September 2016.  Participants continue to aim for a conclusion before the end of the Obama Administration.

 

Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP)

The total number of countries benefiting from GSP is now down to 81. 49 of these 81 are Least Developed Countries (LDCs) that benefit from full duty-free access to the EU market under the ‘Everything But Arms’ part of GSP.   11 countries ceased to benefit from GSP trade preferences from 1 January 2016.  Of these, only Turkmenistan has no alternate trading arrangement with the EU.  For the others: Botswana and Namibia retain duty-free access under the Market Access Regulation while their EPA is finalised (EU Regulation 1528/2007); Colombia and Peru have the Andean FTA; and Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have the Central America Association Agreement.  With these departures there are now just nine countries receiving the enhanced trade preferences available through GSP+: Armenia, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Paraguay and the Philippines.  Kyrgyzstan joined the GSP+ part of the scheme in January 2016.  Looking further forward, an additional six countries will no longer benefit from GSP preferences from 1 January 2017.  Three are departing due to their upper-middle income status: Iraq, Marshall Islands and Tonga; and three have alternate trading arrangements in place: Cameroon (EPA), Georgia (FTA) and Fiji (EPA).  We welcomed the European Commission’s first report on the implementation of GSP and GSP+ at the end of January 2016, and a new list of product sections which will not benefit from GSP preferences for the period 2017-2019 was published in March.  The total number of countries benefitting from GSP is now down to 81. 49 of these 81 are Least Developed Countries (LDCs) that benefit from full duty-free access to the EU market under the ‘Everything But Arms’ part of GSP.     11 countries ceased to benefit from GSP trade preferences from 1 January 2016.  Of these, only Turkmenistan has no alternate trading arrangement with the EU.  For the others: Botswana and Namibia retain duty-free access under the Market Access Regulation while their EPA is finalised (EU Regulation 1528/2007); Colombia and Peru have the Andean FTA; and Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama have the Central America Association Agreement.  With these departures there are now just nine countries receiving the enhanced trade preferences available through GSP+: Armenia, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Paraguay and the Philippines.  Kyrgyzstan joined the GSP+ part of the scheme in January 2016.  Looking further forward, an additional six countries will no longer benefit from GSP preferences from 1 January 2017.  Three are departing due to their upper-middle income status: Iraq, Marshall Islands and Tonga; and three have alternate trading arrangements in place: Cameroon (EPA), Georgia (FTA) and Fiji (EPA).  We welcomed the European Commission’s first report on the implementation of GSP and GSP+ at the end of January 2016.

 

A new list of those product sections which will not benefit from GSP preferences for the period 2017-2019 was published in March and is available here:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/march/tradoc_154349.pdf    These products will no longer receive GSP preferences as from 1 January 2017 until 31 December 2019 when the list will be reviewed again.

As a result of these changes, some products from India will newly face increased EU tariffs (mainly metals), and some will newly benefit from reductions (some chemicals, raw hides). Some chemical products from Indonesia also newly benefit from reductions.

 

Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs)

After conclusion of negotiations in 2014, the EPAs with Southern Africa[1] and East Africa[2] are set to be signed this summer, with provisional application expected later this year.  Signature of the Southern Africa EPA is set for 10 June in Botswana, with signature of the East Africa EPA to follow in July.   As well as ensuring tariffs for imports into the EU remain at zero, EPAs will also gradually remove tariffs for some EU exports to the partner countries (over a 12-20 year period).   We still require Nigeria’s signature before we can make further progress with the West Africa EPA[3], which all EU Ministers and the majority of West African partners have already signed.   The European Commission has stated that it wants to see all three of these regional EPAs ratified by African partners by October 2016. Otherwise it plans to enact legislation which could remove duty-free EU market access from Ghana and Cote D’Ivoire (West Africa), Botswana, Swaziland and Namibia (Southern Africa), and Kenya (East Africa).

More detail on EPAs is available on the Commission’s website.

 

Environmental Goods Agreement

Negotiations on the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) are continuing this year as an agreement on a product list was not reached by the end of last year.  The aim is to conclude negotiations in 2016. 

Since the launch of negotiations in July 2014 considerable progress has been made in thirteen negotiating rounds.  Participants are now working towards finalising a list of products which are environmentally credible and easily implementable at the border.  Participants are also working to ensure that the agreement is a future-oriented one which can adapt to new technologies in the coming years.

The UK stands to benefit significantly from lower tariffs on trade in green goods.  Even on a narrow definition of green goods, UK exports outside the EU exceeded £7bn in 2012.  Importing lower cost green goods and services can also bring benefits to the UK, for example through more rapid diffusion of technologies.  An agreement would also scale up the use of low carbon technologies where the UK is a global leader, thus providing direct prosperity dividends.

[1] Consolidated text

[2] Main text

[3] Main text; ADD1; ADD2; ADD3

[lol-lol]

International Monetary Fund says Brexit 'pretty bad to very, very bad'

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36284200

 

The International Monetary Fund chief has said a vote by the UK to leave the European Union would have "pretty bad, to very, very bad" consequences.

Christine Lagarde said she had "not seen anything that's positive" about Brexit and warned that it could "lead to a technical recession".   She echoed similar comments made on Thursday by Bank of England governor Mark Carney.  Vote Leave said the IMF had been wrong in the past and was "wrong now".  The IMF said in a report on the UK economy that a leave vote could have a "negative and substantial effect". It has previously said that such an outcome could lead to "severe regional and global damage".  The Fund said a Brexit vote would result in a "protracted period of heightened uncertainty" and could result in a sharp rise in interest rates, cause volatility on financial markets and damage London's status as a global financial centre. Ms Lagarde said the IMF had a duty to assess the risks of Brexit. It has a mandate to oversee the international monetary and financial system. The Fund is expected to publish detailed estimates of the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU in the week before the 23 June referendum, the timing of which has been criticised by leave campaigners.  It was not just a domestic issue but an international one as well, Ms Lagarde told a briefing at the Treasury attended by the Chancellor, George Osborne.  "I don't think that in the last six months I have visited a country anywhere in the world where I have not been asked 'what will be the economic consequences of Brexit?" she said.  'Heck no!'  Asked if the Treasury had had any input into the IMF's conclusions, Ms Lagarde responded: "Heck no! If you are suggesting that, you don't know the IMF."

Edited 13 May, 2016 by lol-lol

[trundlenut]

International Monetary Fund says Brexit 'pretty bad to very, very bad'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36284200

The International Monetary Fund chief has said a vote by the UK to leave the European Union would have "pretty bad, to very, very bad" consequences.

Christine Lagarde said she had "not seen anything that's positive" about Brexit and warned that it could "lead to a technical recession". She echoed similar comments made on Thursday by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Vote Leave said the IMF had been wrong in the past and was "wrong now". The IMF said in a report on the UK economy that a leave vote could have a "negative and substantial effect". It has previously said that such an outcome could lead to "severe regional and global damage". The Fund said a Brexit vote would result in a "protracted period of heightened uncertainty" and could result in a sharp rise in interest rates, cause volatility on financial markets and damage London's status as a global financial centre. Ms Lagarde said the IMF had a duty to assess the risks of Brexit. It has a mandate to oversee the international monetary and financial system. The Fund is expected to publish detailed estimates of the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU in the week before the 23 June referendum, the timing of which has been criticised by leave campaigners. It was not just a domestic issue but an international one as well, Ms Lagarde told a briefing at the Treasury attended by the Chancellor, George Osborne. "I don't think that in the last six months I have visited a country anywhere in the world where I have not been asked 'what will be the economic consequences of Brexit?" she said. 'Heck no!' Asked if the Treasury had had any input into the IMF's conclusions, Ms Lagarde responded: "Heck no! If you are suggesting that, you don't know the IMF."

So does the IMF have some sort of badness scale?

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[lol-lol]

So does the IMF have some sort of badness scale?

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"Pretty Bad" is where the economy shrinks by 1% by the IMF's upper limit of how it would impact UK economy,

 

Very, Very Bad is their lower limit of modelling of where the UK economy would be which is 9% down and this ties in with the median estimated by PwC and the like where the paradigms come out with about a 5-6% drop in GDP, currency etc.   WS Journal article this....

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-warns-brexit-could-have-negative-consequences-for-u-k-economy-1463130530

[DanHarper]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0&feature=youtu.be

 

Not sure why its not embedding. Good video though.

 

More information here: http://www.brexitthemovie.com/

Edited 14 May, 2016 by DanHarper

[trundlenut]

Not sure why its not embedding. Good video though.

More information here: http://www.brexitthemovie.com/

Remove the s from the https bit.

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[DanHarper]

Remove the s from the https bit.

 

Nah tried that already. And the youtu.be secure and standard. Nevermind... probably best to pop it in a new window if you want to watch anyway as its 70mins

[trundlenut]

Nah tried that already. And the youtu.be secure and standard. Nevermind... probably best to pop it in a new window if you want to watch anyway as its 70mins

You need to put it inside [media ] tags too.

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[gadgetman]

Not sure why its not embedding. Good video though.

More information here: http://www.brexitthemovie.com/

20 minutes in & some valid points but also some conveniently ignored truths.

The unelected folk are voted in, not by us but out representatives (MEPs) and the various groups they join up to.

Similar to our select committee's & the speakers in the house of commons being voted in by our MPs.

Also pretty sure in reverse any laws are ratified by these groups & the MEPs in parliament.

There are some which get discussed at government level (trade & security etc) which is where any of the big 6 with veto powers can stop things dead. We've done this a number of times which is fantastic when we do, but everyone gets upset when another veto power returns the favour

[Ootohere]

Jeremy Corbyn MP is making the best speech for reasons to stay in the EU that i have heard.

Actually the best speech from anyone on Staying or Leaving.

Edited 14 May, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[lol-lol]

Jeremy Corbyn MP is making the best speech for reasons to stay in the EU that i have heard.

Actually the best speech from anyone on Staying or Leaving.

Where is that being broadcast?

Difficult for anyone on the left to get air time, unless undermining with 90% of the press being right wing.

Glad the smearing backfired in the London mayoral election.

[bilun777]

Isn't the BBC "allegedly" very very slightly left wing luvey leaning....allegedly

[Ootohere]

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2016-05-14/jeremy-corbyn-turns-fire-on-conservatives-in-eu-speech

[lol-lol]

Isn't the BBC "allegedly" very very slightly left wing luvey leaning....allegedly

 

The Beeb covered the Anti-Antisemitism "issue" completely dis-proportionally,  perhaps as their Charter was up under review, the BBC has been quite "Liberal" and quite believing in its own pursuance of its own "truth" on more than one occasion one could argue based on the over recruitment of Ox-bridge Arts Grads.

 

I like to sample a lot more news outlets these days ie skip through the US, Fox is even worse than Sky for political bias.  All "news" outlets give far too much opinion and way too little facts.  Presumably people get comfort from being spoon fed opinion similar to their own.

 

I quite like the online Huffington Post to add some balance.  It is owned by AOL I gather but relatively independent.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/