Follow the money

Demand Forecast

• “Demand for carbon credits could increase by a factor of 15 or more by 2030 and by a factor of up to 100 by 2050. Overall, the market for carbon credits could be worth upward of $50 billion in 2030.” —Mckinsey Report

• This demand translates into a ~$10 billion–$40 billion market opportunity in 2030, with an ample runway to reach ~$20 billion–$135 billion in 2040.” — BCG Report

• The demand for quality, nature-based credits is outpacing supply. —EY Net Zero Centre report

On 06/05/2025 at 11:20, wyx087 said:

This is a global effort, always is. Concentrating on nations as though it is virtue-signalling is missing the point.

With regard to what are the benefits:

• Cheaper energy

• Energy independence

• Jobs

• Technology leadership

• Economic activities

• Health benefits

Just to name a few.

None of those claims have any kind of measurable goals attached to them, and nobody will be held accountable if the huge cost associated with "net-zero" fails to yield the claimed benefits.

When the cheaper energy, energy independence, additional jobs, and health benefits fail to materialise, then the claim will be made that "Ah! But it would have been EVEN WORSE without net zero.".

I'm old enough to remember when immigration was going to raise the GDP (along with a load of other claimed benefits).

Well gross GDP might have gone up, but GDP PER CAPITA has fallen. Nobody but the taxpayer is held accountable for the failure to achieve the stated goals.

I have no idea what the "Economic activities" and "Technology leadership" benefits might be. I suspect they are just filler buzz-words.

On 06/05/2025 at 14:04, Lee01 said:

There's money to be made trying to deny scientific consensus on behalf of 'big oil'.

People being corrupted by money from "big oil" is real, but people being corrupted by money from "big pharma" to sell billions of ineffective vaccines is a conspiracy theory spread by "anti-vaxxers"?

Maybe people being corrupted by money from big oil is a conspiracy theory spread by "anti-oilers"?

Or maybe...

On 06/05/2025 at 10:56, wyx087 said:

unfortunately capitalist greed

...leads to people being corrupted by money from big-anything? Be that the military-industrial complex, big oil, or <gasp> big pharma?

1 hour ago, EnterName said:

None of those claims have any kind of measurable goals attached to them, and nobody will be held accountable if the huge cost associated with "net-zero" fails to yield the claimed benefits.

When the cheaper energy, energy independence, additional jobs, and health benefits fail to materialise, then the claim will be made that "Ah! But it would have been EVEN WORSE without net zero.".

I'm old enough to remember when immigration was going to raise the GDP (along with a load of other claimed benefits).

Well gross GDP might have gone up, but GDP PER CAPITA has fallen. Nobody but the taxpayer is held accountable for the failure to achieve the stated goals.

I have no idea what the "Economic activities" and "Technology leadership" benefits might be. I suspect they are just filler buzz-words.

Many of the benefits are easy to measure, but to provide measurable numbers is beyond my pay grade.

Here are my stuff on my personal level:

• Cheaper energy:

  • 300 kWh of electricity used at just 7p/kWh <= cheaper energy compared to people who didn't adopt electrification.

    

• Energy independence

  • There was a powercut due to underground line failure last week. I went off-grid for that day until incident was reported to be fixed, zero disruption to me.

  • If Spain power cut incident happened, I would have zero problem living off-grid for weeks in recent sunshine.

And on a broader level:

• Jobs

  • There will be many job opportunity created by push for net-zero, from energy sector to tech

  • https://www.local.gov.uk/publications/green-jobs-creating-workforce-deliver-net-zero

• Technology leadership

  • Innovations all areas will enable UK to sell the tech, creating value

  • For example, here is a long list of innovate UK involved sustainable projects:

  • https://iuk-business-connect.org.uk/knowledge-centre/casestudy/?_sft_sector=sustainability

• Economic activities

  • With innovation, comes economic gains

  • In simple terms, this means GDP growth and money flowing in

• Health benefits

  • Net zero tech such as BEV and heat pumps mean cleaner air at local level

Rest of your post goes into your conspiracy theory. It does not dignify any response.

But corporate greed and big oil spreading doubt (via a few individuals) are well documented, worth a read:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

On 09/05/2025 at 12:14, wyx087 said:

300 kWh of electricity used at just 7p/kWh <= cheaper energy compared to people who didn't adopt electrification.

When you say "adopt electrification", you mean personal solar panels, yeah?

@EnterName What do some or many people want in the UK, is it to open up coal mines, fracking in England, getting the oil & gas / coal gas out of the ground in England. Town Gas & Natural Gas.

Scrap LEZ,s & allow vehicles with any emission levels into town / city centres without restrictions or penalties.

Is it for there to be no restrictions on commercial / industrial or residential emissions.

Get the coal fired power stations back up and running?

Getting the National Grid fit for purpose and the Pylons up for the transmission of the available electricity to England from the RoUK will be a good start. Obviously spoiling views in England is a step too far for many.

Edited 11 May, 20251 yr by Ootohere

1 hour ago, Ootohere said:

@EnterName What do some or many people want in the UK, is it to open up coal mines, fracking in England, getting the oil & gas / coal gas out of the ground in England. Town Gas & Natural Gas.

Scrap LEZ,s & allow vehicles with any emission levels into town / city centres without restrictions or penalties.

Is it for there to be no restrictions on commercial / industrial or residential emissions.

Get the coal fired power stations back up and running?

Getting the National Grid fit for purpose and the Pylons up for the transmission of the available electricity to England from the RoUK will be a good start. Obviously spoiling views in England is a step too far for many.

I'm old enough to remember when everyone was outraged about coal mines being closed. Even in Scotland.

Of course, that's when the evil Tories were closing the coal mines.

Now the Left want the coal mines kept closed, the very thought of the Right opening a coal mine is madness and a threat to global climate.

When the likes of Mary Whitehouse was demanding censorship, the Left was screaming blue murder about their free speech.

Now it's the Left demanding censorship and the Right defending free speech.

I swear these groups take it in turns to push a particular narrative and swap sides every decade or so. 😄

The proposed mine in Cumbria is intended to only produce coke which is still needed for some industrial processes in the UK, as it will be several (many?) years before all those processes can change to no longer need coke (will the alternatives have other environmental impacts though?).

If we don't produce coke locally then those companies will need to import it, and the most likely producer is Australia.

So we need to balance the impact of producing locally against the impact of shipping coke halfway round the world on ships that are very likely fuelled by the most polluting fossil fuel, heavy oil.

Left & Right, who is it that decides what to call others leanings, are they to the Right or Left?

New Labour or the Keir Starmer Champagne Socialist take every freebie available and from what ever donors and not LEFT WING are they any more than the Tories that take every freebie available from what ever donors might be RIGHT WING, as might the CENTRE / Fence sitter Liberal Democrats or Reform UK takers.

As to the Greens, well they are who knows what.

Memories# Short term. Recent if anyone looks back less than a decade and bothers to open their eyes or mind.

(Long term memories can be selective by Location location location and what you believed or believe.)

Mining went open cast and stopped really because Coal Fired Power stations closed.

Many wanted the Cumbrian Mine for Coking Coal.

No idea what political party they support, but they were wanting jobs in the area.

Edited 11 May, 20251 yr by Ootohere

UK coal production was reduced because it was cheaper to import it. The decision to stop using coal came later . We were still burning 50 million tonnes in 2008

Our World in Data

Coal production and imports in the United Kingdom

Coal production and imports in the United Kingdom, measured in tonnes per year.

Edited 11 May, 20251 yr by Stonekeeper

The UK didn't commit to phasing out Coal for electricity until ten years ago.

BBC News

UK's coal plants to be phased out within 10 years

The UK's remaining coal-fired power stations will be shut by 2025, energy secretary Amber Rudd proposes.

21 hours ago, Ootohere said:

Left & Right, who is it that decides what to call others leanings, are they to the Right or Left?

I've dug out some definitions for you, @Ootohere .

The political left advocates for social equality, collective welfare, and government intervention to promote progressive change and protect marginalised groups.

The political right emphasises individual liberty, traditional values, limited government, and free-market principles to foster personal responsibility and economic growth.

People can quibble about the precise definition, but those definitions generally hold water, IMO. If anyone wants to pick them apart, please do.

I note that policies "they" (and "they" can be deep state, global overlords, big business, CIA or whoever you like) want to impose on the world, try and take a little from both sides of the political spectrum, to appeal to as many people as possible.

For example, with Climate Change, the benefits of lowering global CO2 to some utopian percentage, which has never been defined but will always different from what we have at the moment, include an appeal to the Left's protection for marginalised groups in the developing world, and tickles the Right's ears with the promise of economic growth.

(Oddly enough, the same twofer is performed for mass immigration. The Left believe "We must look after refugees at all costs!", which ticks the Left's protect marginalised groups box, while the Right are placated and possibly inclined to salivate at the prospect that "Immigrants raise our GDP!" which ticks the Right's economic growth box.)

I suspect you could analyse any political policy and test it against the two definitions, to see whether the policy is in line with the principles of the governing party, or more in line with their political donors. Of course if you have politically aligned donors, there should be no conflict. Which I assume is why people make donations to the political party most aligned to their interests. 😉

It also explains the outrage of political donors when the party they donated to implements policy that is not aligned with their supposed political principles.

@EnterName Perfect. But it is you or others deciding what you think people are.

We have no idea what or who you are. You seem very occupied on issues of colour or immigrants.

What are you?

What are your leanings?

On 11/05/2025 at 07:18, EnterName said:

When you say "adopt electrification", you mean personal solar panels, yeah?

Electrification includes everything, from car to self energy sufficient (solar and home battery) to heat pump. On a national level, that means decarbonise the grid, electric public transports, etc.

Steel production can be electrified: (thus no longer need coal)

Spectra by MHI

The three phases to green steel production | Spectra by MHI

Decarbonizing steel is best done in phases, starting with optimizing existing plants before moving on to fully clean electric arc furnaces and hydrogen-based production.

Concrete can also be made low carbon:

https://2050-materials.com/blog/a-simple-guide-to-low-carbon-concrete/

https://www.concretecentre.com/Resources/Concrete-Compass/Low-Carbon-Concrete.aspx

Let's try not making this thread pointless political definition. Who/What you/me/them are doesn't matter.

The science is clear, action is needed now. No matter left/right/progressive/traditional, the only worthy discussion is how much action is needed.

10 minutes ago, Ootohere said:

@EnterName Perfect. But it is you or others deciding what you think people are.

We have no idea what or who you are. You seem very occupied on issues of colour or immigrants.

What are you?

What are your leanings?

You know George, you seem very curious about me, even to the point of wanting to know what sort of school I went to.

Conveniently, your (and indeed some others on here that have problems with my posts) focus on my identity, marks you out to be on the political left.

Whereas I am far more interested in what is said than who is saying it. Which marks me to be on the political right.

You can see this is practice on Briskoda. I am far more likely to quote people when I disagree with them, and pick apart what they say, whereas all too often, the people I disagree with (@wyx087 gets a mention and a pass here, because I don't think he's ever pulled this crap on me) try and target me, rather than what I say.

You can extrapolate this all the way up to cancel culture, whereby people (usually on the Left) do their utmost to "shut down" opposition, and contrast it with the opposing "free speech" movement on the Right. (I say usually on the Left, but the right have recently learned that trick and are also playing that game these days. Don't hate the player, hate the game.)

Just now, wyx087 said:

The science is clear, action is needed now. No matter left/right/progressive/traditional, the only worthy discussion is how much action is needed.

Timing! 😄

I spent a few minutes composing my post and by the time I'd posted it your post was made and I look like I've just totally ignored you.

Yeah, fair enough.

Incidentally, given your determination to get to net-zero/carbon-neutral etc., what is optimal global CO2 level, @wyx087 ?

Edited 12 May, 20251 yr by EnterName

1 minute ago, EnterName said:

Incidentally, given your determination to get to net-zero/carbon-neutral etc., what is optimal global CO2 level, @wyx087 ?

Follow the science.

I have no idea, it is not for me to decide. I also have no knowledge to decide this.

For me, key is reduction of human impact.

For example, passive houses. reduce, reuse, recycle.

Electrification is key in reduce energy consumption for everything. Everything is just so efficient when starting with electricity.

Just now, wyx087 said:

Follow the science.

I have no idea, it is not for me to decide. I also have no knowledge to decide this.

For me, key is reduction of human impact.

For example, passive houses. reduce, reuse, recycle.

Electrification is key in reduce energy consumption for everything. Everything is just so efficient when starting with electricity.

That's a reasonable answer. I'm trying, but it ain't easy. 😄

36 minutes ago, wyx087 said:

Everything is just so efficient when starting with electricity.

It's a real drawback that the price we pay for electricity is linked to the world price for natural gas, it seems without good reason as so little of our electricity is produced by burning gas (at the moment according to grid.iamkate.com it's 26.7%).

Then when you take into account the upfront costs of switching from a gas boiler to a heat pump (even allowing for the very mean grants available) it's not something that many homeowners can afford to do.

If there really is a climate emergency then there need to be MUCH better grants for the majority to install heat pumps, solar cells, battery storage, etc. Until that happens I for one will have to stick with my gas combi boiler and 100% usage of grid electricity.

1 hour ago, PetrolDave said:

(at the moment according to grid.iamkate.com it's 26.7%).

Not forgetting today is a good day for renwable generation. During bad days, it could be 60% gas.

But I totally agree, this linkage to global gas price is absolutely bonkers. I personally think, from what I've seen, zonal price will go towards fixing that.

Long term, this is where batteries and electrification of everything make sense. I've talked about this many times in other thread. Where we (the nation) can install an excess amount of renewables sized for lowest weekly winter generation periods. (I'm no expert, I'm using diaster probability language for guessing and getting my point across) Plugged in EV, connected batteries and industry are then used to soak up the excess for almost nothing. Prices skyrocket during once a month or diaster level low generation. Supply & demand 101. Industries also pay vaiable pricing and they deal with occational spikes in price in their calculated way (buy storage or partial shutdown, they do their own business case calculations).

Finding the grid solutions now should never be approached with early 1900's hub and spoke power station mentality. If renewables are not stable, then so shouldn't be the prices, simple.

@EnterName I am not even bi-curious about you.

But since you seem to put everyone into some pigeon hole or another and like calling people what ever i just wondered what you are, or think you are.

Your posts are mostly to wind up i think, but are you extreme right or just extremely non tollerant?

PS.

Sorry as i just scanned the first reply to me.

I do not read much of the nonsense you post which i see you think is picking peoples posts to bits.

Edited 12 May, 20251 yr by Ootohere

When we are talking about the energy / electricity in the UK on the day, week or when ever it is worth IMO looking at by region. It is a location location location thing.

Scorchio today where i am and just a light breeze. The turbines i passed at several wind farm sites were all turning this morning.

http://electricityproduction.uk/in/scotland

Under 6 million of a population.

http://electricityproduction.uk/in/london

Over 8 million of a population.

Edited 12 May, 20251 yr by Ootohere

A wells a well a river is a river, if you fall in you'll make it bigger. From my childhood.

Rivers are pretty low but the Pumped Hydro will used likely tonight.

The Electricity providers all get a wee shoty. The Nuclear in Scotland that can power 3/4 of all homes in Scotland might even be going across the channel if it is not going to just England just now.

Globally, renewables become the world's biggest source of energy:

BBC News

Renewables overtake coal as world's biggest source of ele...

Developing countries lead the historic clean energy charge but the US and EU rely more on fossil fuels than before, a think tank study shows.

The sentiment that large emitter like China isn't doing anything is now incorrect:

"

China remains way ahead in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined.

"

On 07/10/2025 at 08:36, wyx087 said:

Globally, renewables become the world's biggest source of energy:

BBC News

Renewables overtake coal as world's biggest source of ele...

Developing countries lead the historic clean energy charge but the US and EU rely more on fossil fuels than before, a think tank study shows.

The sentiment that large emitter like China isn't doing anything is now incorrect:

"

China remains way ahead in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined.

"

The EU has shown that China is giving substantial subsidies to some of its companies so puts Countervailing duties on Chinese companies ranging from Tesla and BYD being the least to SAIC ie MG, Maxus being the most, Ad Valorem...

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/news/eu-commission-imposes-countervailing-duties-imports-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-china

Chinese exporting producers are subject to the following countervailing duties for a period of five years:

• BYD Group: 17.0%.

• Geely Group: 18.8%.

• SAIC Group: 35.3%.

• Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.: 7.8% (upon application for individual examination)

• All other cooperating companies: 20.7%.

• All other non-cooperating companies: 35.3%.

UK does not levy this, yet, China appears to be focusing even more on hybrids now as they do not get the BEV CV levy.

One needs to add another 10% duty to the above figures as there is 10% normal car duty.

The EU puts levy's on the Chinese cars to protect it's own Car industries.

There are only 8 individual models of Car assembled in the UK that would likely be helped by the UK doing the same.

So the benefits of getting people into cheaper Electric vehicles may be seen as the priority