EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[@Lee]

Why do you keep quoting UKIP it has nothing to do with them, Im as keen to see the back of them as you are trust me.

 

You don't seem keen on telling me which one of the 35 chapters that Turkey (pre coup d'etat attempt) couldn't fulfill or argue that they already fulfill.

Or why the leaders would publicly express their intentions of speeding up joining if this was infact off the table. The only Fact is that Turkey have 

applied to join and sympathetic forces within the EU were lobbying and using leverages to speed up the process. The fact thats its now been 

nipped in the bud doesn't mean it wasn't going to happen had things not gone differently.

the 35 Chapters. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis/index_en.htm

 

They've only passed/ fulfill/ Chapter 25 (Science and Research)

 

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/turkey/screening_reports/screening_report_25_tr_internet_en.pdf

[moley]

If T-May is Thatcher Mark 2 (not [sir] Mark Thatcher the arms dealing son when he is not lost or under arrest) and perhaps we will undergo a similar scenario three terms of Cons gov, massive social unrest, financial disaster with the ERM and housing crash in the third term and then three terms of labour under a leader under which we saw a decade of prosperity until the US banking collapse.  We could easily have an identical scenario playing out now which is a shame if we have not learned lessons from the past.        

Look back to the reason Thatcher was elected in 1979. Callaghan's labour government and the Union's were taking this country down, IMF bailout, strike after strike, the Winter of discontent etc... I didn't like Thatcher, but there were some issues that had to be tackled such as the power of the unions, the amount of money being thrown at British Leyland etc. 

Prosperity under Blair? Selling off gold cheap, Iraq war, Tuition fees. Could you tell the difference between New labour and the previous Tory government?

[Scribbler]

the 35 Chapters. http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/chapters-of-the-acquis/index_en.htm

 

They've only passed/ fulfill/ Chapter 25 (Science and Research)

 

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/turkey/screening_reports/screening_report_25_tr_internet_en.pdf

 

I know what they are I have read them don't need hyperlinks thanks. Your missing the point, who is the body that quantifies if these arbitrary targets have been met? is it independent or are the EU judge and jury.

[moley]

I know what they are I have read them don't need hyperlinks thanks. Your missing the point, who is the body that quantifies if these arbitrary targets have been met? is it independent or are the EU judge and jury.

Furthermore, what deal was done with Turkey if they took migrants back from Greece?

[gadgetman]

I know what they are I have read them don't need hyperlinks thanks. Your missing the point, who is the body that quantifies if these arbitrary targets have been met? is it independent or are the EU judge and jury.

The commission of all 27 members have to all agree that the conditions have been met.

Turkey also have to write the conditions into their laws as well in order for a condition to even be considered for examination of compliance. Turkey have refused to alter their laws to include all remaining conditions - which include the right to fair trial, false imprisonment without charge and fighting terrorism.

Summed up nicely why it's never happening any time soon no matter what you were lead to believe during the referendum campaigning

http://www.theweek.co.uk/24083/turkey-and-the-eu-the-pros-and-cons-of-membership

[Scribbler]

Formalities easily accommodated by willing parties. There is to much money involved for it not happen. It might be partial access including free movement

[trundlenut]

Formalities easily accommodated by willing parties. There is to much money involved for it not happen. It might be partial access including free movement

So why haven't they? There has been ample opportunity.

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[gadgetman]

Formalities easily accommodated by willing parties. There is to much money involved for it not happen. It might be partial access including free movement

Why is it so hard to admit it's untrue rather than come up with more and more "but it will happen"

It won't, most people now accept it was a leave lie to won votes.

The more you cling to this untruth, the more I'm convinced your actually a regretful brexiteer

[lol-lol]

Look back to the reason Thatcher was elected in 1979. Callaghan's labour government and the Union's were taking this country down, IMF bailout, strike after strike, the Winter of discontent etc... I didn't like Thatcher, but there were some issues that had to be tackled such as the power of the unions, the amount of money being thrown at British Leyland etc.    Prosperity under Blair? Selling off gold cheap, Iraq war, Tuition fees. Could you tell the difference between New labour and the previous Tory government?

 

I remember the Three Day week https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-Day_Week,  the Winter of Discontent, the Miners strike and we in Customs and Excise did some strike days in the nineties too just as Doctors and Teachers are now. All are a failure on both side not to find a Third Way where government, industry and workers all lost out.

 

It was difficult to know where gold was as it was in some decline as both an industrial metal and as a reserve currency but who knew that the Western would do what Japan had been doing since the nineties ie run with low interest rates, have low growth and grow a massive national debt,  It still staggers me.

 

Iraq war is still an oddity, I worked in Iraq in the 80s under Saddam and it was orderly in some way the the guy was a homicidal maniac using WMD on both Kurds, Marsh Arabs and in the war against Iran where half a million died in the 80s which I nearly got caught up in working in Basrah.  The West won the battle but had not proper plan for the peace sadly.  Word was Saddam wanted to sell oil in Euro instead of Dollar which was the final straw.  Go to see him go but we should help the Kurds more and help set up a split state I reckon.       

 

Tuition fees introduced to add a bit of fairness I recall ie those who did not get funding because they did not do degrees felt the tax payer was paying for graduates to get degrees who would then earn more anyways. The nominal fee of £3K sounded about right to me, Fee of £9.1K and above are now just crazy and assessments now reckon most will not be paid back so just a dumb system when it was raised from £3k to £9K under the Cons.

 

"New Labour" was certainly mid politically but that what them in ie being middle of the road and that was thought to be better than what had happened with the ERM fiasco and house price falls in the early nineties.   Maybe May's Workers Council ideas will help prevent these damaging industrial disputes that have damaged the UK in every decade since the seventies.     

Edited 16 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[moley]

Australia offering free trade deal with the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818055

[gadgetman]

Australia offering free trade deal with the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36818055

As the article points out, it's probably because of the lack of a deal with the EU already.

As the other 12 countries aren't mentioned by name, I assume they too don't already have a deal with us via the EU.

[@Lee]

cheap lamb, kanga meat and a token gesture by a Commonwealth country lol

[moley]

cheap lamb, kanga meat and a token gesture by a Commonwealth country lol

We can export as well as import.

[@Lee]

We can export as well as import.

export what? Honda's and Nissans?

[@Lee]

 

Banks and insurance companies have already begun quietly moving their bases to within the EU to sustain their ability to trade via the bank passport: Airbus at last week’s Farnborough airshow made the same point – it did not want to plough through thousands of pages of UK regulations to invest in Britain. Rolls-Royce similarly. Bank of England agents across the country report that the majority of investment proposals have been frozen; inward investment has trickled to nothing. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors reports the sharpest fall in expectations of rising house prices since 2004.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/science-research-hit-by-brexit

[lol-lol]

Anybody got a microscope?

Edited 17 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[domhnall]

this is quite a well written article in the paper today

 

Anyone expecting a cat fight in Bute House on Friday would have been thoroughly disappointed. The meeting between the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and the new Prime Minister, Theresa May, seems to have been more than amicable. Sturgeon even tweeted a picture of them both shaking hands on the steps of her official residence to “show the girls” that nothing is impossible.

 

But behind the smiles there was very hard politics going on – even a rather male game of poker. May is not prepared to contemplate another independence referendum, which the FM has said is “likely”. But the PM surprised many by announcing that she will not trigger the all-important Article 50 on Brexit until there is a “common UK-wide approach”. This could mean she is using Scotland as a way of keeping Britain in the EU, which would infuriate most of her ministers. (The suggestion that Scotland might have a veto on Brexit aroused fury on social media: “who is running this country, May or Sturgeon” was a common post.)

On the other hand, May's gambit might be an attempt to use Scotland as a means of keeping Britain in the European Single Market (ESM) by forcing her own Brexit ministers to accept free movement as the only way to save the Union. Sturgeon has made clear that remaining in the ESM is her red line as far as the Article 50 negotiations are concerned. Do the Brexiteers care so much about immigration that they would break up Britain over it?

 

Any way you look at it, this seems a gamble by a Prime Minister who, contrary to her image, seems to like to live dangerously. It is also a risk for Sturgeon. Would her Nationalist supporters thank her for doing a deal on the EU? Or would they prefer Alex Salmond's assertion that there must be an automatic independence referendum after two years of Article 50 being declared?

But independence aside, there did seem to be a curious meeting of minds between the FM and the PM. Perhaps this was because of May's conspicuously social democratic rhetoric during her Downing Street speech last week. A lot of it indeed could have been cobbled from Nicola Sturgeon's election speeches last year with its promises on gender equality and ending the privileges of the wealthy and the privately educated. All very good, but I suspect it will take a lot to persuade Scottish voters that Theresa May is “on your side”.

 

May may not be Cruella de Vil, but she does bear a striking resemblance to that former Tory matriarch, Margaret Thatcher, not least in the company she keeps. The May cabinet is the most right-wing we have seen in 30 years, with Thatcherite retreads such as Liam Fox, David Davis, Michael Fallon – plus of course Boris Johnson, the thinking person's Donald Trump. Nigel Farage the ex-Ukip leader, was the first to congratulate her on the quality of her ministerial team, which tells you all you need to know.

 

Others she has drafted into her government may disabuse those who seem to believe that women are naturally more left-wing than men. For example, Liz Truss, the new Justice Secretary, is a co-author of the ultra-Thatcherite Britannia Unchained, which condemned British workers as “the worst idlers in the world”. The Brexit belle, Andrea Leadsom, who believes men should not be child-carers, is a fracking enthusiast who has been put in charge of Environment, despite her evident doubts about climate change. That should be no problem however since May has axed the Department of Energy and Climate Change in her clear-out of what remains of the Cameron green agenda.

 

Now, there is a theory going round Westminster that the presence of all the Brexit rightists in May’s cabinet is all a clever ruse to "keep her enemies closer". They will have to carry the can if and when the negotiations on exiting the European Union get nasty. That means Fox, Davis et al will have to resign, ha ha. Boris Johnson is similarly being given enough rope to hang himself – though he famously survived doing that on a zip wire during the London Olympics.

 

I don't buy the idea that Theresa May has a soft centre and is only using the Brexiteers as human shields. She really doesn't like having people around who she doesn't trust or get on with – as she demonstrated by sacking Michael Gove. She has cleared out much of the metropolitan thinking Tories such as Oliver Letwin along with the Notting Hill set of Cameron and Osborne. She represents the return of the narrow tradition of provincial Conservatism, for whom the patron saint is Grantham's Margaret Thatcher.

 

Making Boris Johnson Foreign Secretary looks like an extraordinary gesture of little England contempt for the rest of the world – and that's precisely how the rest of the world has taken it. When has a British Foreign Secretary ever before been greeted by the international community as "outrageously" behaved and a “a liar with his back to the wall” (as the German and French foreign ministers said of Johnson)? President Obama's state department wasn't impressed either. It remains an astonishing appointment given Johnson's nostalgia for the British Empire, fondness for talking about “picanninies” and for writing offensive poems about foreign leaders. The critical mass of the May cabinet is very much to the right and these politicians have been put in the driving seat. This is likely to provoke confrontations on a series of issues over and above Scotland future relations with the EU.

[gadgetman]

Saw something earlier that the UK might be able to transfer eu membership to Scotland as a devolved nation.

So it could remain in the UK and Europe, whilst England, Wales & Northern Ireland all leave.

That'd cause even more upset with the union as only Scotland could remain.

Not sure how free trade would work between Scotland and ROUK if the EU charges tariffs - unless we sign an FT agreement now with Scotland?

[Ootohere]

So Westminster MP's are going to vote on the Trident Replacement.

 

The UK Government has no plans to move the Nuclear Deterrent from Scotland, and the SNP are against the Nuclear Deterrent being in Scotland.

 

Turkey might bring in the Death Penalty and that will rule them out of the EU.

Can the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland including Scotland maybe reintroduce the Death Penalty since they are leaving the EU anyway?

 

So many positives can be possible from not being in the European Union.

Edited 17 July, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[@Lee]

So Westminster MP's are going to vote on the Trident Replacement.

 

The UK Government has no plans to move the Nuclear Deterrent from Scotland, and the SNP are against the Nuclear Deterrent being in Scotland.

 

Turkey might bring in the Death Penalty and that will rule them out of the EU.

Can the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland including Scotland maybe reintroduce the Death Penalty since they are leaving the EU anyway?

 

So many positives can be possible from not being in the European Union.

Not sure which demographic you fall into, George?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/36803544?client=ms-android-orange-gb#

[cheezemonkhai]

export what? Honda's and Nissans?

Why not, they're of the few countries that use RHD and i bet a few of them would like some big jags.

Plus banking services.

I'm sure there's plenty and saying it's so bad at every positive is getting a bit draining.

If we did stay in and deutchsbank goes under, how well are we shielded.

Frankly if we got access to the single market and had to accept free movement of labour (but they have to have the job before they come and lose the automatic right when the job goes) then that would be an excellent compromise.

Saw something earlier that the UK might be able to transfer eu membership to Scotland as a devolved nation.

So it could remain in the UK and Europe, whilst England, Wales & Northern Ireland all leave.

That'd cause even more upset with the union as only Scotland could remain.

Not sure how free trade would work between Scotland and ROUK if the EU charges tariffs - unless we sign an FT agreement now with Scotland?

Spain, France and Italy will never let that happen as they don't want their regions to have independence.

Edited 17 July, 2016 by cheezemonkhai

[@Lee]

Why not, they're of the few countries that use RHD and i bet a few of them would like some big jags.

Plus banking services.

I think it'd be a damn site easier and cheaper for the Aussies to get them from Japan. As for other Marques, Ford and others are pulling production from Aus but VW have plants in Brazil and Mexico IIRC. Ford are a hop a cross the Specific Ocean too.

[Ootohere]

Easier for Australia to get from China or Japan, but China & Japan and even the USA like to get luxury cars from the UK.

 

Lots get their Electric Generators, Water Pumps and Heavy Plant, Fracking Machinery, and other stuff from the UK.

Amazing how many customer World Wide want to buy British and might still do,

even when they could of before now built their own plants.

But then Made in Britain, made in Scotland and such can not really happen in China or Japan,

But they can own the Plants in the UK. 

[crampedsky]

Easier for Australia to get from China or Japan, but China & Japan and even the USA like to get luxury cars from the UK.

 

Lots get their Electric Generators, Water Pumps and Heavy Plant, Fracking Machinery, and other stuff from the UK.

Amazing how many customer World Wide want to buy British and might still do,

even when they could of before now built their own plants.

But then Made in Britain, made in Scotland and such can not really happen in China or Japan,

But they can own the Plants in the UK. 

 

Where and how,  will you be getting all the materials needed for all these heavy machines? 

 

That's without taking into account that a weak £ may be good for exports but not so good for imports. 

 

The UK or whatever is left of it,  may well be able to carve out some good treaties with similarly sized countries but i fail to see how the big economies (China, USA and EU among others) are going to be anything other than cut throat when dealing with us.

 

We will need them much more than they need us, and they will make damn sure we know about it. Big fish, little fish

[domhnall]

Saw something earlier that the UK might be able to transfer eu membership to Scotland as a devolved nation.

So it could remain in the UK and Europe, whilst England, Wales & Northern Ireland all leave.

That'd cause even more upset with the union as only Scotland could remain.

Not sure how free trade would work between Scotland and ROUK if the EU charges tariffs - unless we sign an FT agreement now with Scotland?

I posted about that several pages back, in late June. I discussed it with an EU judge the week before the referendum, he said all options were being considered in case England voted out.

It neatly gets around the concerns of Spain, because it would mean Scotland didn't get independence and it would preserve Spanish access to the bulk of EU fishing grounds (most of which are in Scottish waters).

The precedent is there in Denmark which is partly in the EU and partly outside. It's been all over the media ever since 24th June. Google "reverse Greenland"

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