EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[moley]

I was with a client this afternoon who is the UK arm of an EU based company, their cost base has gone up 14% and their clients are complaining.

Sent from my D5803 using Tapatalk

My prices for parts. I buy in from Germany will go up slightly next month. By waiting for the best exchange rate, shaving a bit off of my profit and getting my supplier to do the same I reckon the increase will be around 3% maximum.

Not sure how their costs have risen 14%.

[gadgetman]

Im more concerned about this than i was the EU. Why arn't our government more protectionist and support innovative world leading tech industries? Afterall its the Japanese government who are bankrolling a large part of this buy out. This country always seems to want to sell the plans and IP to other countries rather than the actual products. A perfect example was selling off the plans for US to make their own Harrier's which led to them acquiring STOVL & thrust vectoring technologies which is now so important for future aircraft. Where as we only buy products from the US and they never meet our specs Apaches for example. Frustrating to say the least.

Welcome to capitalism.

As for the apache, the US spec is fine. It's when BAE messed with them the military had issues.

Now they buy direct from the US with BAE simply servicing them.

[domhnall]

I love when people who are qualified in law and advising others in law and legislation are often the ones that need someone else trained in law and legislation to advise them because someone is taking the mick out of them,

ie EU Mainland European Companies dealing with UK Companies that are in the EU.

The EU Governments not in the UK have been taking the Mick since the UK joined the EEC and from then on.

George, get off your high horse. I don't need the help you suggest. My clients are free to instruct whoever they want. The fact is that they need cross border advice on EU matters. They have suggested they will use advisors from within the EU and who will be remaining in the EU. Can't say I blame them. The reality is that industry is going to push hard for the current uniform set of rules to be kept in place. The last thing they want is different rules and processes in different countries. We used to have that and it was needlessly complicated.

Sent from my XT1562 using Tapatalk

[Ootohere]

Too easily wound up, chill maybe

Negotiations need people with cool heads do they not.

 

PS

I never suggested any help,

but if i did give advice, first consultation is free, then it is £150 an hour plus VAT.

Edited 19 July, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[domhnall]

Too easily wound up, chill maybe

Negotiations need people with cool heads do they not.

PS

I never suggested any help,

but if i did give advice, first consultation is free, then it is £150 an hour plus VAT.

You're cheap

Sent from my XT1562 using Tapatalk

[SkodaVRS1963]

You're cheap

Sent from my XT1562 using Tapatalk

 

That may be for a reason.

 

Advice is worth exactly what people are prepared to pay for it.

[domhnall]

Boom!

Sent from my XT1562 using Tapatalk

[lol-lol]

http://citywire.co.uk/money/pound-falls-as-brexit-sparks-imf-downgrade/a934147

 

Pound falls as 'Brexit' sparks IMF downgrade Pound falls as International Monetary Fund downgrades UK and global growth forecasts, saying 'Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works'.

by Daniel Grote on Jul 19, 2016 at 15:39

 

Update: The pound has fallen after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded UK and global growth forecasts for the UK, saying the 'Brexit' vote had 'thrown a spanner in the works'.

The IMF cuts its growth forecast for the UK to 1.3% for 2017, down from its 2.2% previous estimate, while the forecast for this year was cut from 1.9% to 1.7%. The forecast for global growth this year was cut from 3.2% to 3.1%, and from 3.5% to 3.4% for 2017.

'The "Brexit" vote implies a substantial increase in economic, political and institutional uncertainty, which is projected to have negative macroeconomic consequences, especially in advanced European economies,' said the IMF in its world economic outlook report.

The news sent the pound 0.9% lower against the dollar to $1.313. The pound's fall helped lift the FTSE 100 out of the red, with the UK blue-chip index up six points at 6,702. A weaker pound tends to help the FTSE 100, whose members derive around three-quarters of their earnings from overseas.

'The markets couldn't really gain traction this Tuesday, the news wires dominated by a particularly bearish IMF,' said Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex.

Edited 19 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[Scribbler]

Still more predicted growth than France and Germany and not the -9% they were predicting and much of that will get revised up im sure Its just Legarde giving us a kicking for daring to ignore her advise.

Edited 20 July, 2016 by Scribbler

[Aspman]

The faster we get through this transitional period the better.

[Scribbler]

The faster we get through this transitional period the better.

 

Unfortunately, if we want a good deal the reverse would be better we need to drag our heals and wait for the instability in the EU to kick in. This may seem harsh to some

but if they had been open to negotiation and treaty change then brexit might not have happened at all. They are about to reap what they sow. Our so called friends in Europe are about to give us a damn kicking we need to weather the storm until they realise its hurting them. Im very optimistic about the end result and nothing I have seen so far is out of the expected or worse than feared.

[Aspman]

Unfortunately, if we want a good deal the reverse would be better we need to drag our heals and wait for the instability in the EU to kick in. This may seem harsh to some

but if they had been open to negotiation and treaty change then brexit might not have happened at all. They are about to reap what they sow. Our so called friends in Europe are about to give us a damn kicking we need to weather the storm until they realise its hurting them. Im very optimistic about the end result and nothing I have seen so far is out of the expected or worse than feared.

 

Remember no negotiation with EU until Article 50 triggered. We need to crack on with the negotiations with everyone else.

[Scribbler]

Remember no negotiation with EU until Article 50 triggered. We need to crack on with the negotiations with everyone else.

 

Nope not until 2017 once we have an agreed plan of attack. I would suggest this would consist of Redline demands and also desirable and fake demands to give the EU some wiggle room and concessions. Make them feel like they are getting the upper hand and we are getting the raw deal. More importantly Italy, Greece and possibly other states may be in financial crisis by this stage and a few other referendums might be on the cards so a monetary incentive from the UK could be offered. in return for favourable negotiations. This is a poker game make no mistake and Stoney faced Mrs May might just pull this off Like Thatcher did before her with the controversial rebate.

[crampedsky]

Unfortunately, if we want a good deal the reverse would be better we need to drag our heals and wait for the instability in the EU to kick in. This may seem harsh to some

but if they had been open to negotiation and treaty change then brexit might not have happened at all. They are about to reap what they sow. Our so called friends in Europe are about to give us a damn kicking we need to weather the storm until they realise its hurting them. Im very optimistic about the end result and nothing I have seen so far is out of the expected or worse than feared.

 

The trouble with that scenario is that instability works both ways.

 

Once people living in Wales and in the north of England start to notice that the funds from EU projects aren't being replaced by central government, that  the NHS isn't getting the promised weekly £350  millions, that immigration isn't being cut down to the levels they were lead to believe, then it could well be the UK  facing instability.

 

That is without taking into account the cuts that even the government admits will need to be implemented or Scotland deciding to hold a second independence referendum.

 

in my view, a long drawn out process will only benefit parties outside the EU/UK 

[trundlenut]

Don't forget, once we invoke article 50 that's it, we're leaving. After 2 years we're out, no ifs or buts. We can't extend the process.

Sent from my D5803 using Tapatalk

[lol-lol]

Don't forget, once we invoke article 50 that's it, we're leaving. After 2 years we're out, no ifs or buts. We can't extend the process.

Sent from my D5803 using Tapatalk

Not this year says T-May to Merkel so not leaving EU until 2019 or later.

Edited 20 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

Not caught up too much as away on a course but glimpsed the news earlier. Berlin happy to pay for relocation of IT and banking services and another item RE Erasmus (University research) could be hit. SWMBO mentioned that already there's been a lot of students from within the EU pulled out (many £K per head loss) but also EU Uni's very cautious about entering into and applying for grants. UK research will take a big funding hit.

[jlwah]

Not caught up too much as away on a course but glimpsed the news earlier. Berlin happy to pay for relocation of IT and banking services and another item RE Erasmus (University research) could be hit. SWMBO mentioned that already there's been a lot of students from within the EU pulled out (many £K per head loss) but also EU Uni's very cautious about entering into and applying for grants. UK research will take a big funding hit.

Unfortunately we have too many mediocre universities chasing to few students. The sector needs to shrink by 25% or so and standards need to be raised. Hopefully a withdrawal of foreign students will speed up that process.

 

Research grants follow talent and expertise, as long as we still have that, we will still get the research grants, Brexit or not.

[Ootohere]

So now the UK can educate more overseas students that want to study in the UK.

 

Get teachers that want to teach a higher standard of Primary and secondary school and have colleges training people to do the jobs 

that graduates with degrees think are below them.

 

Lots of low paid manual jobs for the British Citizens in the Future since so many seem to want to stop migrant workers coming in taking the jobs.

Looking forward to British Youngsters that can read and write and count how many punnet they have picked etc.

[@Lee]

Unfortunately we have too many mediocre universities chasing to few students. The sector needs to shrink by 25% or so and standards need to be raised. Hopefully a withdrawal of foreign students will speed up that process.

Research grants follow talent and expertise, as long as we still have that, we will still get the research grants, Brexit or not.

Unfortunately you have no idea how well ranked globally a lot of UK universities are ranked. Even the lower ranked Universities depend on students from both within and outside the EU. I don't know if you know how much investment comes from EU grants. Students from outside the EU don't see the UK as a stable place to study right now. The countries they come from are less likely to invest in their future on UK universities. Google Erasmus programme EU.

[trundlenut]

Unfortunately we have too many mediocre universities chasing to few students. The sector needs to shrink by 25% or so and standards need to be raised. Hopefully a withdrawal of foreign students will speed up that process.

Research grants follow talent and expertise, as long as we still have that, we will still get the research grants, Brexit or not.

The current evidence would suggest the money isn't following the talent.

Sent from my D5803 using Tapatalk

[lol-lol]

UK Customs to publish their rates of exchange for usage in calculating import taxes and it looking like low 130s for the all important USD/GBP.

 

We will hopefully have enough deferment account scope to pay these increased import taxes which will start coming through to the shops from mid-August onwards.

 

 

https://new.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/

Edited 20 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[Aspman]

Looking forward to British Youngsters that can read and write and count how many punnet they have picked etc.

 

Indigenous young grafters are a pretty rare breed now.

 

Not extinct but very rare.

[jlwah]

Unfortunately you have no idea how well ranked globally a lot of UK universities are ranked. Even the lower ranked Universities depend on students from both within and outside the EU. I don't know if you know how much investment comes from EU grants. Students from outside the EU don't see the UK as a stable place to study right now. The countries they come from are less likely to invest in their future on UK universities. Google Erasmus programme EU.

Unfortunately I do - they rank well below the USA.

 

And in having the most universities in the top 500 we're forth behind Germany and China.

 

Most degree students here work in jobs that don't require a degree. Indeed, I seem to remember Blair pointing towards the level of students in India that were degree educated before embarking on his misplaced belief that 50% of students should go to university. It may well be the case that India, as a proportion, has more university educated students, but a good many of those are taking your phone calls when you dial your utility providers. Hardly a good example for justifying the massive increase in government expenditure and the debt burdens that students graduate with (a good proportion of which will never be paid back).

 

We simply have too many universities chasing too few students and the quality of teaching reflects that.

[Aspman]

The problem there is in differentiation.

 

I everyone has a degree they become worthless as a differentiator.

When it was a rarity to go to university a degree of any sort was a very significant thing.

But most courses were of a narrow type Science, Engineering or Humanities. No "Golf Course Design" or "Football Club management".

 

Now you have to have a 'good' degree from the 'right' university or a post grad. All to build up massive of debt to be paid off from your zero hours contract at McDs.

Not surprising that some ex-students are choosing to earn low wages or live on the dole to avoid paying this back.

 

There aren't any more big paying graduate jobs than there were before, but there are a lot more graduates.