EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[KenONeill]

IME a "typical barista" in $town has a $local_accent; the people I meet who are most likely to have a $east_European accent are housekeeping and waiting staff in hotels and restaurants (and lots of these are actually doing "year abroad" for a languages or hospitality industry degree back home).

[Ootohere]

There you go then, plenty local people that can do the job of serving coffee or other drinks, 

makes you wonder why anyone is on the TV saying BREXIT could mean a shortage of Barista.

 

The Eastern European accent might be common and add something to the experience of being served or any accent.

My partners Central European accent appeals to me. 

As to the 'year abroad' stuff that seems to be a total myth where many with 'Accents' that are not local have had jobs in the UK longer than many UK Citizens have.

 

I have not met many Romanian or Bulgarian Eastern European Barista in Scotland but no doubt there are some.

 

Plenty migrant workers obviously in the Hotel & Catering staff and in the tourist industry where they are now going to get £7.50 an hour if old enough, 

needed obviously and prepared to take a job and stick with it where as many Scottish people taken on might not even see a week out and some might not come back to the job after their first day.

 

Seasonal Soft Fruit pickers are obviously seasonal if arriving for the season working damn hard then going home to their studies.

As to the World Exchange Colleges in the Hotel Industry, Hilton, MacDonald, Trump International etc that is a lot about getting tied workers in from other countries knowing that they will be there when the need is greatest, ie high season.

Edited 5 April, 2017 by Awayoffski

[Laurie61]

21 hours ago, Lee01 said:

"Some of the politicians in London have not understood what leaving the European Union means". Yet another example of Project Fear becoming Project Fact is the prospect of the loss of between 100,000 and 232,000 jobs in the financial sector

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/04/uk-jobs-merkel-juncker-euro-clearing-eu-manfred-weber-brexit?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

It looks more like the EU making undeliverable threats. 

 

“The City, which thanks to the EU, was able to handle clearing operations for the eurozone, will not be able to do them,” François Hollande said this week. “It can serve as an example for those who seek the end of Europe . . . It can serve as a lesson.”

 

This threat too easily simplifies a complex relationship between trading and location across global markets. There are solid reasons to believe that these calls will be counter productive and consequently, not acted upon.

 

Clearing houses manage credit risk in the event one party in a swap deal defaults. London has become a world leader for the clearing of all types of currency-denominated derivatives, thanks largely to the widespread acceptance of English law. In the clearing world the euro is one currency among many, including the US dollar, Japanese yen and the Polish zloty. Yen, euro and sterling trades are cleared in the US. Deutsche Börse’s Eurex handles futures contracts for UK gilts and sterling. Governments all around the world are quite comfortable with the idea of having currency-denominated instruments traded and cleared outside their borders — and with many investors using highly regulated London clearing houses.

 

To demand that only euro-denominated swaps can be cleared in the eurozone is fine, however such a standard would have to apply to everyone around the world. That would not only create an anomaly, it would also indicate that Europe may be bringing in a measure of protectionism — which could well prompt a retreat from investors.

 

Crucially, the euro is a global reserve currency and so can be traded and cleared anywhere, just as the dollar is. A demand to have euro-denominated swaps only cleared in the eurozone would represent a step back from that. It may also spur tension within Europe. The ECB clearing house policy of four years ago — that London successfully countered — was largely pushed by France, and many German representatives were privately at best lukewarm in their support.

 

One unknown is whether that raises issues about competition. One could not also rule out American banks and exchanges (especially the CME Group) setting out a legal challenge to a policy that tilts the playing field towards particular European corporations. The CME has been cited in antitrust investigations before — notably into the CDS market. Overall it’s hard to see this call for more euro-denominated clearing in the eurozone as anything other than another French effort to pull business back to Paris.

 

It has tried to do so in the past and if it comes to pass, some business will move out of London. Rules are rules, after all, and the EU is likely to try to punish the UK in some way. But in the end that might be counter productive to a continent trying to stimulate economic growth.

 

Much like the financial transactions tax, which started off with a great wave of enthusiasm until the details got in the way. Ultimately, markets don’t like being told where to go and what to do for political and not systemic risk reasons.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e7b6a752-3dec-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

[gadgetman]

7 hours ago, KenONeill said:

IME a "typical barista" in $town has a $local_accent; the people I meet who are most likely to have a $east_European accent are housekeeping and waiting staff in hotels and restaurants (and lots of these are actually doing "year abroad" for a languages or hospitality industry degree back home).

It's quite a skilled job hard graft and minimum wage. 

 

Just watch a busy coffee shop during a rush period 

[lol-lol]

 

Interesting day at the UK Multi-Modal show at the NEC where the British International Freight Association explained it interaction with UK Gov http://www.bifa.org/information/exiting-the-european-union.  Another Seminar with the Freight Transport Association and their seminar on BREXIT http://www.fta.co.uk/policy_and_compliance/brexit/index3.html.

 

Interesting points that came out of it were about the not just about the levels of customs duty tariffs, typically between 14% and zero, but the other import taxes, particularly the Agricultural duties, which can be of the order of 35% and this would be liable, for example, on milk going from North Ireland to Eire for processing in to milk products and this would affect the import of those products back in to NI/UK.  Another interesting points was that it was reckoned the non-tariff costs, ie the costs of the actually export and import customs entries, the requirements for origin certification, authentication of validity of standards of goods to be sold/used in the EU and the additional delays are likely to exceed the costs of the tariff costs mentioned above.  Delays in processing goods, particularly in Roll On-Roll Off freight would cost about £3.20 a minute for each truck and these delays are typically 4 times longer on the European mainland side than the UK side.

 

We, the international logistic companies are, and will, do everything we can before and after the actual BREXIT particularly on the UK side but how much will the Belgian, Dutch, French and Spanish customs and other agencies invest in preparation for BREXIT ie something they did not want but will cost them to prepare for? 

       

Edited 6 April, 2017 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

20 hours ago, Awayoffski said:

& the Average Wage that is quoted drops if there are less high earners.

You are presuming that those high earners are actually not only paying Taxes on Earnings but also spending their disposable income in the UK, or even the EU.

This obviously is not the case with those that have assets and properties and homes around the world and investments or savings in Tax Havens some in British Territories. 

 

These high earners do often pay huge amounts of tax in the UK, actually several times more in tax than the entire salary of the average British worker.  It is true that after they have settled in, one way or another, they start to tax plan as encouraged by the British tax system and there is plenty of help out their from their firms often or external assistance.  If one arrives part way through the UK tax year, this odd April 6th to April 5th year (Hurray today is the start of a new Tax Year, which non UK national find just plain weird that it is not based on calendar years).   So first few months will be not so bad once one has got over the emergency tax code and then one starts to lob £40K using the annual tax free pension allowance and then one get more creative, all legal under UK tax law to encourage investment etc.

 

I understand the flight of jobs in banking and insurance is of the order of 35,000 but the salary, and tax paid by those 35k people is of the order of the tax, and national insurance, is more equivalent to the tax and NI paid by over 100K average taxpayers.  Just how may other jobs, in addition to the banking/insurance jobs, is also in the thousands in the airline sector, to maintain a EU presence to keep the slots etc, and in EDC ie European Distribution Centers which need to be in the EU to have quick distribution is sounding like a similar significant number going by the planning that is taking place by these firms that currently only have a UK base but realize they will need a base in those countries remaining in the EU it is just whether to choose Amsterdam/Skipol, Brussels, Frankfurt, Paris area.             

[Ootohere]

lol-lol, nail on head award. 'Do often'.

 sums it up, their sums being used obviously 

 

 Some jobs actually are worth high wages for hard work and productivity and then the hard worker should get to keep more of that income be they on PAYE or Self Employed.

1000's work in the oil and gas extraction industry in British waters & George Osborne MP has ensured that their income that they will get to keep is away to be worse than last years and next year will be worse again.

[KenONeill]

15 hours ago, gadgetman said:

It's quite a skilled job hard graft and minimum wage. 

 

Just watch a busy coffee shop during a rush period 

Where did I say otherwise, or, indeed, comment negatively on their skills or work ethic? All I said was that they're typically local to the shop IME.

[@Lee]

Quote

In Berlin, officials say that, as negotiations begin, they have the upper hand. Brexit may have some limited economic impact on Germany, but the consequences for the U.K. could be far more devastating. And Berlin is sticking to its hard line that doing what it thinks is needed to keep the EU from disintegrating is far more important to its long-term interests than anything it might gain economically by bending to British pressure on trade.

http://www.politico.eu/article/germany-brexit-reaction-so-what-berlin-indifferent-to-london/?utm_content=bufferb8818&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Ryeman]

Farage and the Trump machine 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage

[gadgetman]

Mr Carney is clearly worried, telling the city to have a plan B

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39524662

[gadgetman]

On 06/04/2017 at 08:42, KenONeill said:

Where did I say otherwise, or, indeed, comment negatively on their skills or work ethic? All I said was that they're typically local to the shop IME.

Sorry, was aimed at George 

[Ootohere]

Nobody would doubt they work hard, and long hours and some dude was on the telly saying how there would be a shortage after BREXIT and changes in Free Movement if it happens and 6 months training etc, 

i was posting about 'Investment Bankers' losing jobs, Barista needed, simples hard working Bankers could become a Barista.

 

Or just find unemployed in the UK that are prepared to work hard for long hours and not great pay, 

and there lies the issue with the UK. Vote to keep out migrants but not prepared to work long and hard for little income.

Edited 7 April, 2017 by Awayoffski

[lol-lol]

UK trade gap (goods and services) continue to grow............

 

Imports £150B in Feb.  (seasonally adjusted)

Exports £141B in Feb    (seasonally adjusted)

 

Trade deficit £3.7B (inlcuding services) in Feb 2017 (up from £3.4B last Feb ie 2016).   Link below........  

Value of Imports and Exports both up about 15%, due to the movement between the pound against the US dollar since BREXIT......  

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/feb2017#the-deficit-on-trade-in-goods-and-services-widened-to-37-billion-in-february-2017

The deficit on trade in goods and services widened to £3.7 billion in February 2017

The UK’s total trade deficit (goods and services) widened by £0.7 billion between January 2017 and February 2017 to £3.7 billion, this reflects a decrease in exports, and an increase in imports.   Total exports decreased in the month by £0.4 billion, the main contributor of this was a decrease in exports of trade in services of £0.3 billion. Total trade imports over the same period increased by £0.3 billion, this was due to an increase in imports of goods from the EU (£0.6 billion). However, this was partially offset by a decrease in imports of goods from non-EU countries (£0.2 billion) and a decrease in imports of services (£0.1 billion).    Between the 3 months to November 2016 and the 3 months to February 2017, the total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed by £0.3 billion to £8.5 billion. The narrowing of the deficit reflected a greater rise in exports (3.1%) than the rise in imports (2.7%) over the period. This was mainly due to increases in exports of machinery and transport equipment, oil and chemicals.

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Edited 8 April, 2017 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

Excellent speech by Lord Bilimoria, a self-confessed Euro-sceptic.

 

 

[Ootohere]

Euro sceptic,

family welcomed into the UK, travel the world for education and work because your name fits and the old boy / girl network and Commonwealth,

 and then those that get welcomed to the UK pull up the ladder on those that want to follow even the nearest neighbours.

[@Lee]

did you even watch the ****ing video, George?

[@Lee]

how deep does the rabbit hole go?...............  http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/leaked-document-shows-secret-government-studies-impact-hard-brexit/07/04/

 

[gadgetman]

Saw a firm on the local news during the week who were celebrating not having to deal with EU red tape in 2 years time. 

 

The company who exports 80% of their goods to the EU.... 

 

Clearly someone needs to have a quiet word with them

[Ootohere]

Lee01, Watched the video, have drunk his product for years and listened to him for years as well. 

Lovely person, yet another Peer who cares more for his or her family and friends and the kelly in the bank.

Sometimes the banks they have not just money in but bigger vested interests.

[Ryeman]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/04/11/world/europe/uk-london-brexit.html?emc=edit_th_20170411&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=67480003&_r=0

[Ryeman]

Interference 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/12/foreign-states-may-have-interfered-in-brexit-vote-report-says?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=221422&subid=7137672&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[lol-lol]

After the UK stats on inflation yesterday (2.3% CPI, 3% RPI) ie up substantial since the BREXIT vote, the UK wage growth continues to go in the opposite direction ie down since the BREXIT vote...  https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/apr2017#average-weekly-earnings

 

Some may still say it is a price worth paying, some of us that it is what we predicted and other may be surprised that BREXIT is costing them hundreds of pounds a year on their disposal income and they were misled that they would be better off with BREXIT.   

 

The far bigger hit is likely to occur when the 44% of trade we do with the EU become taxed and the administrative burden of cross border trade hits and whether the UK Pound falls further than the one sixth of its value it already has lost against the all important dollar (and the less so but still important Euro) falls further than it has already since June 23rd 16.

 

 

Edited 12 April, 2017 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

Trump & Putin in war footings, UK is not the Super Power it thought it was but luckily not in the Euro Zone or even on Continental Europe 

so things will be what things are and no telling what that will be.

Maybe better living in the UK than Germany or some other European Countries if you like the simple life as at least an Island Nation or 4 of them can protect its Borders and Air Space and Seaways.

 

 

 

[lol-lol]

12 hours ago, Awayoffski said:

Trump & Putin in war footings, UK is not the Super Power it thought it was but luckily not in the Euro Zone or even on Continental Europe 

so things will be what things are and no telling what that will be.

Maybe better living in the UK than Germany or some other European Countries if you like the simple life as at least an Island Nation or 4 of them can protect its Borders and Air Space and Seaways.

 

Works well to have a war going on, great for votes, patriotism, think of the Falklands etc, covers up all sorts of ineptitude.    

 

Fortunately the majority of the G7 has told Boris to shut up and sit in the corner over Syria/Russia.  

 

So interwoven with energy policy/prices, export (which Boris seems to think the UK can Sabre rattle, bully and still export to various markets.

 

I would love to see those responsible for the use of chemical weapons spend the rest of their lives in prison but sense must prevail. Why would Assad use such weapons when his Russian backed offensive is already winning the war in Syria?      

 

Edited 13 April, 2017 by lol-lol