Will Britian win 60 per cent of its objectives in an EU trade deal?

[lol-lol]

Well looks like No Deal is the outcome as Bojo says to EU do not even bother coming over to the talks.

 

Back to the list that us Brits should be stocking up on.......

Pasta looks like it could go up by a good 20% plus however the pound goes against the Euro.  Parity for the GB pound and Euro by Q1 2021 ?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1326691/brexit-food-shortages-what-to-stockpile-no-deal-brexit

• Dry carbohydrates like rice, pasta and cereals.
• Pulses and beans (kidney beans, butter beans, black beans, chickpeas).
• Tinned vegetables (carrots, sweetcorn, peas, potatoes).
• Tinned fish (tuna, sardines, anchovies) or meat.
• Soups, chopped tomatoes and other sauces (tomato purree).
• Herbs, spices and olive oils.
• Tinned olives, pickled capers and jarred peppers.
• Dried fruits, nuts and sweets.
• Coffee and teabags.

[Ootohere]

Never heard the fat lady singing yet or the previously fat Prime Minister.

Tweedledee / Tweedledum is still trying the bluff.

[lol-lol]

4 hours ago, e-Roottoot said:

Never heard the fat lady singing yet or the previously fat Prime Minister.

Tweedledee / Tweedledum is still trying the bluff.

 

Both sides convinced the other needs them far more than the other way round.

 

Recipe for lots of people being financial hurt.

 

Our UK government will collect all these import tariffs that I will collect for them, leg us see if the reduce some taxes, like VAT and to back below 15% and excise on fuel to 50p a litre so shop prices do not shoot up.

 

We will see how the UK government deliver stable non inflationary price control especially in these times of low wage rises and diminishing disposable income.

[skomaz]

9 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

• Dry carbohydrates like rice, pasta and cereals.
• Pulses and beans (kidney beans, butter beans, black beans, chickpeas).
• Tinned vegetables (carrots, sweetcorn, peas, potatoes).
• Tinned fish (tuna, sardines, anchovies) or meat.
• Soups, chopped tomatoes and other sauces (tomato purree).
• Herbs, spices and olive oils.
• Tinned olives, pickled capers and jarred peppers.
• Dried fruits, nuts and sweets.
• Coffee and teabags.

 

I think you'll find those goods are readily available from non EU countries...???

[moley]

9 hours ago, lol-lol said:

• Dry carbohydrates like rice, pasta and cereals.
• Pulses and beans (kidney beans, butter beans, black beans, chickpeas).
• Tinned vegetables (carrots, sweetcorn, peas, potatoes).
• Tinned fish (tuna, sardines, anchovies) or meat.
• Soups, chopped tomatoes and other sauces (tomato purree).
• Herbs, spices and olive oils.
• Tinned olives, pickled capers and jarred peppers.
• Dried fruits, nuts and sweets.
• Coffee and teabags.

You forgot the toilet rolls. 

[@Lee]

24 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

I think you'll find those goods are readily available from non EU countries...???

And all will incur a WTO set tariff unless they're from a MFN country   

[skomaz]

52 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

And all will incur a WTO set tariff unless they're from a MFN country   

 

Well done...   You win the prize for stating the obvious.  (It was going to be either you or lol-lol)

 

Look at the list and check the tariffs...

Edited 17 October, 2020 by skomaz

[@Lee]

22 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

Well done...   You win the prize for stating the obvious.  (It was goiung to be either you or lol-lol)

 

Look at the list and check the tarrifs...    

Off the top of my head, coffee (roasted) is 7.5%. Pretty sure there's tariffs on canned veg as well. I had a whole list of these a few years ago which annoyed CWard a bit.
Which particular items do you mean so I can go through them one by one. Which ones incur WTO tariffs? 

[Ootohere]

Not long to wait now then, just 11 weeks then we will see what we see.

Que sera sera!

 

Maybe some news paper barons have a financial interest in starting panic buying in the UK as do politicians.

 

Ignoring Covid 19 that is being handled badly, the preparation for 2021 and any co-ckups are going to be blamed on the incompetents that the majority put into government.

So we know where the voters put the idiots into power.

 

The blame is alrady heading the way of businesses but no matter what Rupert Murdoch's puppet says Gove is a the total incompetent at the centre of it, 

and Baron David Frost.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 18 October, 2020 by e-Roottoot

[skomaz]

8 hours ago, Lee01 said:

Off the top of my head, coffee (roasted) is 7.5%. Pretty sure there's tariffs on canned veg as well. I had a whole list of these a few years ago which annoyed CWard a bit.
Which particular items do you mean so I can go through them one by one. Which ones incur WTO tariffs? 

 

Yep roasted coffee was 7.5% last time I looked.  I checked all on the above list and only 2 were above or near lol-lol's scaremongering 20%.

 

So even if we do end up on WTO it'll be little different to the usual supermarket price tweaks and variations.

 

However the vast majority of what we eat is locally sourced organic produce that is in season from the UK so I doubt it will be impacted much.

[Ootohere]

@skomaz

Really,the vast majority of what we eat is locally sourced organic produce'.?

 

?

Who is we, and were are they at?

 

You know that is tripe about Organic, and also the locally sourced for those in Cities and town and shopping in Supermarkets. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 18 October, 2020 by e-Roottoot

[skomaz]

6 minutes ago, e-Roottoot said:

@skomaz

Really,the vast majority of what we eat is locally sourced organic produce'.?

 

?

Who is we, and were are they at?

 

You know that is tripe about Organic, and locally sourced for those in Cities and town and shopping in Supermarkets. 

 

My family and I is the 'we' referred to.  And yes I know what you are saying...   and the vast majority of what we (see above) eat is not from supermarkets but from small local suppliers or other non-supermarket sources.

 

Clearly others will shop differently and may be more affected.

Edited 18 October, 2020 by skomaz

[Ootohere]

Lidl sell lots of local sourced foods in Scotland as do Tesco because it is foods from Scotland and farms near to where i live.

& Fish from the North Sea, British reared animal meats.

 

But then there is lots on the Fruit & Veg, Meat & Fish & on every shelve/ chiller cabinet or freezer that was imported by Sea or Air given that the UK has no land connections to EU countries other than the Irish Republic.

Edited 18 October, 2020 by e-Roottoot

[lol-lol]

On 18/10/2020 at 09:19, skomaz said:

Yep roasted coffee was 7.5% last time I looked.  I checked all on the above list and only 2 were above or near lol-lol's scaremongering 20%.

So even if we do end up on WTO it'll be little different to the usual supermarket price tweaks and variations.

However the vast majority of what we eat is locally sourced organic produce that is in season from the UK so I doubt it will be impacted much.

 

The list above and link was the Daily Express and not my list.  Not how you reckon about being less than 20% when many agricultural products have a two tier tax ie a base rate of x pounds per tonne plus an Advalorem percentage duty on top of that.  Here is the The Grocer recent article and it is Tescos saying that both the prices and a knock of of shortages are likely issues....       https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/what-foods-would-face-price-hikes-under-a-no-deal-brexit/648142.article

&     https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/tesco-chairman-warns-of-short-term-food-shortages-after-brexit/649458.article

 

Fruit & veg

Under the UK’s current tariff policy, the average tariff on food imported from the EU would be over 20% in the event of a no-deal, according to the BRC’s latest analysis.  Oranges and cucumbers, which would face tariffs of 12%, were among the foods singled out by the report. But they aren’t the only fruit & veg imports from the EU set to face punishing tariffs in the event of a no-deal. The UK’s temporary tariff regime originally published in March 2019 slashed tariffs on most fruit & veg imports to zero. However, in May 2020 it was replaced by the UK Global Tariff, which has replicated the EU common external tariff across most fresh produce imports.  As a result, if the UK doesn’t reach an agreement with the EU, tariffs would be charged on popular fruit imports from the EU such as raspberries (14%), strawberries (10%) and grapes (8%), as well as apples during some stages of the growing season.  Tariffs would also be charged on onions (8%), tomatoes (14%) and sweet peppers (6%), which are the UK’s top vegetable imports, according to HMRC data, and predominantly come from Spain and the Netherlands.

Cheese and other dairy products

Cheddar cheese was another product singled out by the BRC’s analysis, which warned cheddar imports from the EU would face tariffs of 57% in the event of a no-deal Brexit.  According to AHDB analysis, nearly all the UKGT tariffs for dairy are now aligned with the EU common external tariffs. That’s a significant change from the temporary tariff regime announced in March 2019, which included tariffs for some cheeses and butter products, and no tariffs for milk, cream, powders or yoghurts.  High tariffs on dairy products are worrying given the UK still imports 35% of yoghurt, 40% of butter and 67% of all cheese consumed here, according to Arla UK MD Ash Amirahmadi, who has warned of price rises in the sector should the UK fail to reach a deal with the EU.  In the event of a no-deal, cheddar and butter imports from the EU would face tariffs of £158/100kg and £139/100kg respectively, while mozzarella would face a tariff of £154/100kg.

Beef

Fresh meat products, including mince (48%), could also face significant tariffs, the BRC revealed.  In 2018, the UK imported 380,000 tonnes of beef – with almost 90% coming from the EU [HMRC]. If the UK and EU do not reach a trade deal, those imports could be subject to tariffs for the first time.  Once again, the UKGT broadly mirrors the EU’s current common external tariffs on meat. So imports of fresh or chilled boneless beef would be subject to a tariff of 12% + £253/100kg, for example.  Previously, the meat processing sector wasn’t too worried about price rises because the government’s temporary tariff regime included a tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 230,000 tonnes for beef, which could be used by any country, including EU members, for tariff-free access to the UK.  However, the UKGT supersedes the TTR and does not include this quota, as it is built on the assumption that the UK and EU will have a tariff and quota-free deal.  The government has confirmed there will be an erga omnes (open to all) quota for frozen manufacturing beef of just over 44,000 tonnes. However, it has a tariff rate of 20%.

Pork

Even more concerning, perhaps, are the potential tariffs on EU pork imports.  The UK currently imports 60% of the pigmeat it consumes from the EU, according to AHDB. With some pork cuts set to face import tariffs of £72/100kg in the event of a no-deal, that would inevitably translate to price hikes for shoppers.  “The UK is a significant net importer of pork and without low/zero tariff access for some key suppliers, pork prices for consumers would rise”, says AHDB senior analyst – red meat Bethan Wilkins.

Price hikes 

With a plethora of other food and drink imports also set to face import tariffs from 1 January 2021 in the event of a no-deal, it’s unsurprising the BRC is warning of potential price hikes at the tills.  “If there is no trade deal between the UK and the EU it will lead to a rise in prices for the consumer and a diminishing in the quality and range of products that could be made available to UK consumers,” said William Bain, EU policy adviser at the BRC, last week.  The government does have the option to introduce additional zero-rate quotas on any foods in the future, which could help lessen the impact of tariffs should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal. “Although there are no additional TRQs in place at the moment, as the control lies with the UK government, there is a possibility that this situation could change at some point in the future,” says Tom Forshaw, AHDB senior analyst, policy.  But with nothing yet confirmed, the industry should brace itself for a potentially rocky ride ahead.

 

===========================================================================================================

 

John Allan, chairman of Britain’s largest supermarket, Tesco Plc, has warned there could be short-term shortages of some fresh food when the transition period for Britain’s departure from the European Union ends in January.  “We can’t rule out the possibility that if there is dislocation at the ports of entry to the U.K. there will be some shortages of some items of fresh food, at least for a short time,” Allan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Friday.  He said he expects any disruptions to “normalize quickly” and there is no need for consumers to panic or stockpile. 

 “The nation’s supply chain for food will continue but there may be some things we have to learn to live without for a few weeks, possibly a few months,” he said.

 

 

Edited 20 October, 2020 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

Tariffs increase prices and whilst UK customers may have to pay more for pork initially, you may find pig farming becomes financially viable in the U.K. again.

 

This will lower prices again and reduce sales of the imported pork.

 

Thus hurting EU farmers.

 

Everyone bangs on about how the UK will pay more for EU imports and it’s exporters will be hurt.
Yes it’s true but it’s exactly the same for those from the EU exporting to to UK too.

 

Both sides have an interest in fixing an agreement be it free trade or something more.

[Ootohere]

Not only will EU subsidies be stopping for UK farmers, the EU might have to be doing some re-thinking on how generous they can be to some nations that get to take the Michael now with what they receive.

[lol-lol]

8 hours ago, cheezemonkhai said:

Tariffs increase prices and whilst UK customers may have to pay more for pork initially, you may find pig farming becomes financially viable in the U.K. again.

 

This will lower prices again and reduce sales of the imported pork.

 

Thus hurting EU farmers.

 

Everyone bangs on about how the UK will pay more for EU imports and it’s exporters will be hurt.
Yes it’s true but it’s exactly the same for those from the EU exporting to to UK too.

 

Both sides have an interest in fixing an agreement be it free trade or something more.

 

Ah but the it is the consumers that have benefited from the Single Market but the UK government will now get more control on its tax collection as instead of giving billions to the EU due it being a richer country compared to many in the EU it will get to collect those billions collected on Audis, BMWs, Mercs, SEATs, Skodas  and VWs imports, as well as food and clothes etc, but it is what it does with it.

 

Sadly the UK government was already £1.9T in debt in early 2020 after being £1T in debt in 2010 and since Covid they have added about another £400B to that debt mountain so collecting say another £10B per year in import taxes, which I will do for them in my job, and them not having to pay a few billion a year in EU contributions will help the coffers.  But the loss of selling hundreds of thousands of Nissans in to Europe, plus Toyotas and other products I do not think will make up for the few billion saves in Membership fees and us paying on 3/4 of customs duties collected. 

 

So UK people, German, Spanish etc car workers lose out massively but the UK government gets collect a bit more money.  Perhaps Nissan will move to Spain to replace loss of SEAT, PSA etc jobs.   Doubt that frontier tax collection will offset the loss of jobs tax revenue.  Half of people now think it was wrong to leave (48%) the EU and dont know (13%) and Right (39%) the other half roughly, but hey, spilt milk.   https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/    

Edited 20 October, 2020 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

It is about time that milk in containers in the UK cost more than bottled water, or fancy bottled water which is still water.

[cheezemonkhai]

16 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

Ah but the it is the consumers that have benefited from the Single Market but the UK government will now get more control on its tax collection as instead of giving billions to the EU due it being a richer country compared to many in the EU it will get to collect those billions collected on Audis, BMWs, Mercs, SEATs, Skodas  and VWs imports, as well as food and clothes etc, but it is what it does with it.

 

Sadly the UK government was already £1.9T in debt in early 2020 after being £1T in debt in 2010 and since Covid they have added about another £400B to that debt mountain so collecting say another £10B per year in import taxes, which I will do for them in my job, and them not having to pay a few billion a year in EU contributions will help the coffers.  But the loss of selling hundreds of thousands of Nissans in to Europe, plus Toyotas and other products I do not think will make up for the few billion saves in Membership fees and us paying on 3/4 of customs duties collected. 

 

So UK people, German, Spanish etc car workers lose out massively but the UK government gets collect a bit more money.  Perhaps Nissan will move to Spain to replace loss of SEAT, PSA etc jobs.   Doubt that frontier tax collection will offset the loss of jobs tax revenue.  Half of people now think it was wrong to leave (48%) the EU and dont know (13%) and Right (39%) the other half roughly, but hey, spilt milk.   https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/    

 

Remind me, how many UK factories are there making VW, SEAT, SKODA, AUDI etc?

So whilst those who insist on buying these brands will pay more on import, others will choose to look elsewhere to get a better priced car.

Again an EU exporter loses out and prices only rise for those who don't wish to buy cheaper (potentially tarrif free under FTA) cars.

 

Perhaps nissan will move back to Japan, as now there is a trade deal in place, they don't need their EU base?

There's certainly no point in them moving to an EU country now the trade deal is in place.

 

Like I said above, yes people pay more in the short term, businesses/people adapt, prices come down due to alternative sources/products.

 

Everyone loses out, not just the UK.

 

  

16 hours ago, e-Roottoot said:

It is about time that milk in containers in the UK cost more than bottled water, or fancy bottled water which is still water.

 

Indeed, when farmers ask for a fair price and the supermarkets etc can't just say no, we can just import cheaply from another member state, then we may well be able to have a viable farming industry again. (Which is a good thing).

 

We have to accept that if we want certain standards, or fewer unemployed, or higher wages, or lower national debt or higher spending, that this has to be paid for some how. Be that through taxes, paying the producers fairly, or exporting more and importing less, it's something we need to do.

Edited 21 October, 2020 by cheezemonkhai
fixed a typo

[@Lee]

Seems like after four plus years, some people haven't learned a thing. 
Good luck. You'll need it. 

[Ootohere]

They have learned that all those that somehow think they know it all know jack sh0it as just around the corner there can be a pandemic.

 

As to the changes the United Kingdom can expect from leaving the EU it might take 4 years from January 2021 before they know how it went over the first 4 years.

[Ootohere]

Boris might be that well medicated that he is very relaxed about agreements and trade deals,  but the EU leaders seem to be about crapping themselves. 

All the business's in their countries that do export to the UK and like being paid and paid very well.

 

Then the little EU Country of Ireland that has only a land border with one country and that is no longer in the EU so Continental European Countries can get well stuffed using the UK mainland as a Land Bridge very very soon.

 

The UK certainly had a pretty incompetent main negotiator and various dumplings of Government Ministers involved in the past 4 years, maybe the EU will be questioning if their man and his entourage are any more competent.

 

Maybe their ego's have been getting in the way.    As Government spokespeople like to say has happened with Andy Burnham in Manchester.

Edited 21 October, 2020 by e-Roottoot

[lol-lol]

8 hours ago, e-Roottoot said:

They have learned that all those that somehow think they know it all know jack sh0it as just around the corner there can be a pandemic.

 

As to the changes the United Kingdom can expect from leaving the EU it might take 4 years from January 2021 before they know how it went over the first 4 years.

 

Oh I dont think so, it will take hours to discover just how many hoops UK traders have to jump through to maintain that 40% or so trade they have with the EU.

 

As to the 6% of its trade that the EU has with the UK there will be those that lose out, 1 in 4 car maker jobs in Germany as the many in the UK love to plonk a premium badged car on the drive.

 

The sheer extra costs and admin of the UK trading with the EU is just starting to dawn as I go through all the requirements with the companies who even until recently have not really done the prep the probably should have.

 

[Ootohere]

@lol-lolIt hardly matters what you think, that is the poo hitting the fan and many making money and others losing money.

If you have your wits about you and are very very smart you should be able to retire in just a few weeks.

 

You have no idea what things will be like eventually. 

[lol-lol]

50 minutes ago, e-Roottoot said:

@lol-lolIt hardly matters what you think, that is the poo hitting the fan and many making money and others losing money.

If you have your wits about you and are very very smart you should be able to retire in just a few weeks.

You have no idea what things will be like eventually. 

 

We, and even The Duke of Lancaster, left of picture

have been ranting for months that most SMEs have not prepare virtually at all for BREXIT ie all the customs procedures that kick in on Jan 1st for exports to the EU.

 

The customs procedure ramp up in 3 stages fro import ie Jan 1st import decs require but possibility of delaying full entry and payment, 1st of April for Phytosanitary and 1st July for full import decs.  Northern Ireland has full new system TSS from 1st Jan which is quite complex and could be even more of a nightmare than the Dover -etc - RoRo customs processes.

 

Seeing how it goes with work when BREXIT actually starts ie whether it will be properly well paid or not ie overtime, bonus payments etc.  As an industry ie Freight Forwarders, we need to train about 5k customs clerks in a couple of months for quite a complex customs clearance job so much to do.  If it is too much of a nightmare might jack in the logistics company working and do part time consulting which tends to pay twice as well ie £150k pa upwards and could work more when I want rather than 50 hours a week and looking like weekends and earlys and late shift required to cater for RoRo operations.

 

Edited 21 October, 2020 by lol-lol