Will Britian win 60 per cent of its objectives in an EU trade deal?

[lol-lol]

 

Britain 'will win 60 per cent of its objectives in an EU trade deal', negotiator David Frost tells Tory MPs amid fears of deadlock

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8561481/Britain-win-60-objectives-EU-trade-deal-negotiator-David-Frost-tells-Tory-MPs.html

 

 

 

So what 40% are we wanted are we not getting ?  

 

1. Free Trade ie no customs duty tariffs ?
2. Keeping our national fishing waters for ourselves  ?
3. Customs border holdups for checks ? ................

 

Edited 23 August, 2020 by lol-lol

[gadgetman]

Poppycock 

[@Lee]

Like I said elsewhere, David Frost ought to go back to floggin' whiskey.

[moley]

8 hours ago, Lee01 said:

Like I said elsewhere, David Frost ought to go back to floggin' whiskey.

Did David Frost ever 'flog' Irish whiskey? 🤔 

[cheezemonkhai]

Funny because the EU can’t stand it when countries don’t follow their demands.

You had Macron and others having a go at NL and others for stating what their country needed trumped the greater EU integration project.  There are at least 3 EU blocks, frugal, spenders and some of the ex soviet countries.

There’s probably no chance of any deal getting through anyway as these groups fight with each other.

Edited 28 July, 2020 by cheezemonkhai
typo

[Ootohere]

Sir David is great, can swim like a fish, run like a gazelle, spin a story like Alistair Campbell and lie to his hind teeth like Boris Johnson.

 

The EU Leaders and negotiators read him like a book.

So move on, get a new job you are not qualified to actually do and enjoy the rest of your working days with your money secure in gold.

[cheezemonkhai]

That's in the mail....

 

I wouldn't believe a thing I read in that.

I've also heard that there is an overlap period amongst other things.

 

To be honest, I don't think the EU can read him like a book, even if they think they can, because they keep thinging the UK is going to do another Theresa May and just fold on the red lines for "goodwill".

Edited 28 July, 2020 by cheezemonkhai

[Ootohere]

Boris no more knows what he is going to do & agree to than Theresa did.

He has seen the light, had a near death experience, realised he is a big fat lazy useless lump that will now lead those in England to weight loss and greater health even if it is losing just a few lb and fingers crossed it will all work out well in the end.

'Get on your bike',  even when winter and the Flu season comes.

 

'Make those countries with Bike Manufacturers great again!'.

Edited 29 July, 2020 by Roottoot

[@Lee]

Quote

An astonishing 92 per cent of UK trade last year is not yet covered by new deals ready for Britain’s departure from the European Union in five month’s time.

With the clock ticking until the end of the transition period new research has shown new deals cover just 8 per cent of total UK trade, representing a meagre £111.4 billion overall.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/92-of-uk-trade-last-year-is-not-yet-covered-by-new-deals/29/07/#.XyG5ZZ6Vkog.twitter

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, Lee01 said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/92-of-uk-trade-last-year-is-not-yet-covered-by-new-deals/29/07/#.XyG5ZZ6Vkog.twitter

 

It is even worse than that as the Trade deals done are not only with the smaller countries but the UK is obliged to give Unilateral zero duty access to countries like Bangladesh with now reciprocal arrangement.  The UK has not done a deal with Canada even though it says it wants a Canada style deal with the EU.  you could not make it up except in a YES PRIME MINISTER  episode.   https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries

 

Trade agreements that have been signed

Agreements with the following countries and trading blocs are expected to take effect when existing EU trade agreements no longer apply to the UK, from 1 January 2021.

Country or bloc	Total UK trade with countries, 2019 (£ million) (1)
Andean countries (2)	2,893
CARIFORUM trade bloc	3,226
Central America	1,397
Chile	2,150
Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc	1,615
Faroe Islands	295
Georgia	168
Iceland and Norway (3)	26,680
Israel	5,099
Jordan	542
Kosovo	9
Lebanon	826
Liechtenstein	121
Morocco	2,485
Pacific states	309
Palestinian Authority	11
South Korea	11,710
Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc	12,129
Switzerland	39,116
Tunisia	618

1 Source of trade statistics: ONS UK total trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted October to December 2019.

2 After 31 December 2020, it is expected an arrangement will be in place prior to this agreement taking effect.

3 The UK signed a trade agreement in goods with Iceland and Norway on the 2 April 2019. This agreement was signed to maintain continuity of trade and was part of preparations for a potential ‘no deal’ Brexit. It will not enter into force. The UK’s future relationship with these countries is influenced by their relationship with the EU, as they are EEA member states. We will continue to engage with Iceland and Norway to determine the most effective way of maintaining and strengthening trade with them beyond the transition period.

[lol-lol]

Bloomberg underline Complex world from Jan 2021..........

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-07-30/complex-local-customs-may-cause-confusion-brexit-bulletin

 

U.K. companies seeking to export their wares to the European Union will have to prove the origin of their goods to qualify for duty-free access under any potential post-Brexit free-trade agreement — a bureaucratic headache that’s about to menace £150 billion ($195 billion) of goods.

The end of Britain’s customs union with the EU means U.K. firms will have to comply with so-called rules of origin to trade with nations in the region once the Brexit transition period ends on Dec. 31.

Many have never had to identify the share of their exports produced domestically, and if they can’t do it they’ll have to pay tariffs on goods shipped to the EU.

Read More: Brexit Red Tape Reality Dawns on Firms

In addition to a new mountain of paperwork, a certificate of origin costs about £30 per shipment, according to the U.K. Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex.

The threat posed by post-Brexit rules-of-origin restrictions to U.K. operations of automakers such as Nissan and Toyota, which collectively employ about 10,000 people, could be existential.

That’s because trade agreements usually require about 55% of a product to be made locally in order to qualify for zero-tariff treatment. Yet only about 20% to 25% of the overall value of cars produced in the U.K. originates domestically, according to research group U.K. in a Changing Europe.

Even the famous Mini Cooper would be in the firing line. Only about 40% of the value of the parts in the iconic vehicle, made by BMW at its factory near Oxford, are produced in the U.K. Given that it would be virtually impossible for Mini to replace European-made parts with U.K.-made ones by Jan. 1, models exported from Britain would be on track to face a 10% tariff without an agreement on rules of origin.

 

[moley]

You shouldn’t lose any sleep over a no-deal Brexit – it almost certainly won’t happen

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/no-deal-brexit-uk-eu-trade-deal-negotiations-boris-johnson-michel-barnier-a9643616.html

[moley]

UK close to securing post-Brexit 'continuity' trade deal with Japan

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/29/uk-close-to-securing-post-brexit-continuity-trade-deal-with-japan

[cheezemonkhai]

4 hours ago, moley said:

UK close to securing post-Brexit 'continuity' trade deal with Japan

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/29/uk-close-to-securing-post-brexit-continuity-trade-deal-with-japan

Working for the Japanese and talking to people I think it’s fair to say there appears to be much interest on both sides.

[lol-lol]

15 hours ago, moley said:

You shouldn’t lose any sleep over a no-deal Brexit – it almost certainly won’t happen

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/no-deal-brexit-uk-eu-trade-deal-negotiations-boris-johnson-michel-barnier-a9643616.html

 

 

I would point out that even if the UK gets a trade deal with the EU there is so much to do for exporters and even importers.

 

Actually a EU-GB Trade deal means more paperwork as every single item that is exported will require an origin statement and therefore origin tracking.

 

So if one sends a whole bunch of engineering parts then one need to declare which are genuinely GB parts and which are Chinese or JP or US or whatever.  If one is shifting some parts the EU will look if any parts are liable to Anti-Dumping Duty or Countervailing or Quota or Retaliatory duties.

 

Full declaration required out the UK and then in to the EU country.  If the goods have to transit EU countries to get to where they need to go then a Customs Transit arrangement will need to be made if going road rather than air.

 

UK companies need to be getting ready now to work out with all goods they intend to move in to the EU what is the origin status of those goods.  

 

A Free Trade Agreement or No Deal is not the biggest hurdle it is having the information required to declare the goods and making those declares or using a Customs Agent.

 

[lol-lol]

Stepping forwards or backwards ??    https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cbi-warns-over-no-deal-brexit-preparations-ft-202007302306 

 

CBI warns over no-deal Brexit preparations - FT

The Confederation of British Industry has warned that one-fifth of companies say planning for the end of the transition period has gone backwards.

Most companies now lack the time and resources to prepare for a no-deal EU exit, according to the CBI, with one in five saying they were less prepared for Brexit than in January due to coronavirus disruption,

the Financial Times reports.  Britain is already heading for the worst coronavirus-induced slump of any major economy.  

There was news today of further and even stricter shutdowns in the North.

UK Government announce major local lockdown

Fears are also rising that businesses could be slammed by the failure of trade talks with the European Union.  The CBI which represents 190,000 UK companies, has been warning for several weeks that businesses would be unable to withstand another shock after the virus shutdowns had hammered their cash reserves and left many fighting to survive. 

Market implications -  The UK is heading for its worst economic crash in more than 300 years.

  

[lol-lol]

Sunday Express has an interesting image......

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1326300/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-no-deal-plans-eu-trade-deal-update-barnier

Time is running out for the UK to secure a trade deal with the EU, as both sides need time to ratify a deal in their respective Parliament's.

But a Brexiteer has urged the Government not to make huge concessions in order to rush through a last-minute deal.

 

[@Lee]

10 hours ago, lol-lol said:

Sunday Express has an interesting image......

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1326300/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-no-deal-plans-eu-trade-deal-update-barnier

Time is running out for the UK to secure a trade deal with the EU, as both sides need time to ratify a deal in their respective Parliament's.

But a Brexiteer has urged the Government not to make huge concessions in order to rush through a last-minute deal.

 

Looks like the boy in charge of colouring in at the DE needs a few lessons in maths lol
Seriously though, if people still think the UK's going to get even half of what was promised in 2016 - 2020, including an 'oven-ready' deal (which was a complete lie) they're in for a rude awakening.
I take it you've seen the reports of the leaked documents @lol-lol?
Michael Gove as deluded as ever. Canada/ Australia deal? He's talking out of his arsch yet again. 
 

Quote

Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove said: “We got Brexit done with a great deal in January and we are working flat out to make sure the United Kingdom is ready for the changes and huge opportunities at the end of the year as we regain our political and economic independence for the first time in almost fifty years.

“Part of this work includes routine contingency planning for various scenarios that we do not think will happen, but we must be ready for come what may.

"Whether we trade with the EU on terms similar to Canada or to Australia, a brighter future awaits as we forge our own path.”

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-23/dossier-reveals-worst-case-scenario-if-no-deal-brexit-and-second-covid-wave-coincide

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, Lee01 said:

Looks like the boy in charge of colouring in at the DE needs a few lessons in maths lol
Seriously though, if people still think the UK's going to get even half of what was promised in 2016 - 2020, including an 'oven-ready' deal (which was a complete lie) they're in for a rude awakening.
I take it you've seen the reports of the leaked documents @lol-lol?
Michael Gove as deluded as ever. Canada/ Australia deal? He's talking out of his arsch yet again. 
 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-23/dossier-reveals-worst-case-scenario-if-no-deal-brexit-and-second-covid-wave-coincide

 

I think the picture is trying to do two things and is doing it badly.  

 

The colours pertain to percentage and the amount in the box is a figure in millions of Euros so 48B Euros, presumably mainly from the UK buying less German cars.

 

Australia is no deal as the EU treats Australia as being on WTO terms ie the full customs duties that any other WTO member must get as a minimum ie 10% car duty in the EU's case which will strangle Nissan, JLR, Toyota and cause them to up sticks from the UK, eventually, now new production lines.

 

Report makes grim reading, hey ho, at least we know "Freedom" from the EU after a failure to do a deal has a potential price .......

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/leaked-dossier-no-deal-brexit-coronavirus-a4531306.html

 

It says parts of the UK may face power and petrol shortages if thousands of lorries are stranded in Dover while shortages of medicines caused by port blockages could lead to animal diseases spreading through the countryside.  The classified document, dated July 2020, further warns that if trade restrictions triggered by a no-deal Brexit are combined with floods, flu and another coronavirus wave, then hospitals may be overwhelmed.

READ MORE

Whitty says UK will see 'real problems' with Covid this winter- LIVE

Town halls could go bust and troops may have to be drafted on to the streets if the economic toll causes public disorder, shortages and price hikes, according to the leaked dossier.  A Government spokeswoman said the document “reflects a responsible Government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities”.

 

Edited 24 August, 2020 by lol-lol

[Aspman]

They're putting quantatative figures against a qualitative issue. So basically they can make up anything they want.

 

Just politicians being policticians

[cheezemonkhai]

I fail to see how most of the posts relate to the thread title? 
 

It just feels like another Brexit rant thread.

[lol-lol]

11 hours ago, cheezemonkhai said:

I fail to see how most of the posts relate to the thread title?   It just feels like another Brexit rant thread.

 

I did not get much input from Briskoda members as to what their red lines were, what they might be OK compromising on and what they were not happy to give up in the BREXIT negotiations. 

 

To me it is looking like the UK want to keeping it sole fishing rights to it own waters and it is going to keep all the customs duty taxes it collects, unlike now where it gives 75% of the customs duties it collects to the EU.  The UK has stated it is happy to do a Free Trade Agreement with EU27 but I hear it has not got in to the nitty gritty as to how each of the 5,000 headings of goods are to be treated as originating in the UK ie 60% of originating content or one or two substantial processes rules which are the normal.

 

The UK is reducing 2,000 of its 12,000 classification, which includes many sub headings, to zero duty rate, mainly for intermediate products ie goods going in to other goods, all these goods, ie those being reduced and those being maintained ie cars, cloths etc, an be found hear..... https://www.check-future-uk-trade-tariffs.service.gov.uk/tariff

 

So our UK government will be collecting much more import taxes to spend the money how its wishes, have control of its waters and this is what the UK people seem to really want.  During my meeting with Michael Gove late last year he expressed again that he is carrying out his duty which was expressed in the vote of 23rd of June 2016, fair enough.  There will be 10,000 jobs plus in the working of the customs system, badly needed with the current mass redundancies so another silver lining in the cloud !

 

Edited 26 August, 2020 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

Honestly I’m just tired of the subject. 
nobody really knows and with everything else going on we don’t need another thing where people insist on opposing sides and taking lumps over it.

 

ignore me if it’s Just me, but I’m not sure it is.

Edited 26 August, 2020 by cheezemonkhai

[lol-lol]

20 minutes ago, cheezemonkhai said:

Honestly I’m just tired of the subject.   nobody really knows and with everything else going on we don’t need another thing where people insist on opposing sides and taking lumps over it.  ignore me if it’s Just me, but I’m not sure it is.

 

You and me both and I have to actually implement the BREXIT measures.  My company is the largest customs broker in France and sizeable in the UK, Belgium, Holland and Spain and trying to plan for something that may happen, or may be delayed again  oddschecker betting 40/60 for a delay ....https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/uk-and-eu-to-extend-the-brexit-transition-period-after-1-january-2021 

 

Many thing we do know if/when we leave ie need for customs declarations, and those companies that should need staff are not hiring due to the uncertainty.   It is not just that we in the UK get our french onions but many more vital goods.  We have moved heavily in to Pharmaceuticals with all the company's concerns over medicines.    If it all gets too much, asked to work many extra hours for no extra pay, will have to consider just taking my pensions early, get my deck chair out and watch from the sideline !   

Edited 26 August, 2020 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Getting near crunch time.  FT Summary....

https://www.ft.com/content/e1e457a7-e464-4db2-adb5-1504a91e0eaf

The state of the talks: How negotiators did on the main sticking points

1. Criminal justice co-operation: Progress in addressing UK resistance to pledging respect for the European Convention on Human Rights.
2. Governance: Some signs that the legal shape of the future relationship is coming together. But disagreements remain on dispute-settlement arrangements.
3. Fishing rights: No meaningful progress.
4. Level playing field: Some progress on the transport sector. And a ***** of light on state aid, according to the UK.
5. Other problems? Mr Barnier cited protection of personal data, climate change commitments and carbon pricing. 

EU has rejected Japanese and Turkish (car) parts being included in Origin Accumulation rule ie effecting Nissan, Toyota etc.

 

Should all come to a head this month ie October 2020.