Inflation returns to UK and could cost hundreds of pounds per month

[lol-lol]

Martin Lewis explains that it is not only the rise on the 1st October to almost £300 pm annualised average we need to worry about but that with more than half the data in for the January 2023 price rise, and that date is only 125 days away, that the new cap price looks like it will be well over £4k per annum annualised meaning average payment more like £350 per month but of course energy company's Direct Debit algorithms reckon that one needs to start building up a surplus amount in one's energy account to ensure one's account does not go too far in to debt in the depth of winter then it is easy to see that energy companies may demand monthly DD payments start hitting £400 to £500 per month to prepare for that mid to late winter time when usage and the price per kWh goes beyond 60p kWh for electricity and cracking on for 25 p kWh for gas.

 

I noticed the first slightly chilly morning for several months this morning and one can only hope and pray that the new PM "gets it" and introduces a host of measures to get us through the winter of 2022/23 with a minimum of social consequences to this Armageddon for many of the most vulnerable in our society.   

 

As many will know I am very pro-Octopus as a supplier, not interested in profiteering from introductory bonuses I could get but I simply high recommend them.

I was lucky as I got changed over to them when they took over the cooperative customs base and doubly so with lucky timing on getting on to the GO tariff but the renewals have been great too and Octopus promise to always be cheaper than the Big 6 bunch of profiteers and French government owned MNC that is EDF that go some great deals and I even feel quite sorry for the unlucky French citizens who are ending up bailing out to the huge benefit of many UK energy users. 

 

Will government just scratch the surface with dropping the VAT and the Green levy as well as doubling the £400 per propery or do even more ? Time will tell. 

 

£350  

Edited 27 August, 2022 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

The actual cost of electricity generated in the UK needs dealt with.  It should not be tied to the Global Price of Gas.    The actual amount of Gas used to generate electricity for domestic use and then for industrial use matters.    The likes of Ineos and its owners are making many billions from the products produced for the home market and exports and taxes are paid.  But then Ineos bought the pipeline bringing North Sea gas and oil to their refinery.      There is money being made all over the place and some people just want 15 kWh of electricity a day for their homes for less than £10 a day.  The low usage customers are helping pay for higher usage customers with Standing Charges.    Time that high use households are paying a higher tariff after a set lower price for basic use unless there is high occupancy.     If Council Tax was more like the Community Charge it should be known how many adults occupy a home.  Easy enough with the benefits system to be able to tell how many children do.   The council tax rebate of 25% should be indicating to the Council's and governments how many homes are occupied by 1 adult.    There is no joined up government thought and statistics that are nonsense and there is so much fraud on benefits and allowances .     HMRC should look know the income to individual addresses and the occupants.  DWP / HMRC should know the benefits paid to individual properties occupants. 

[lancpudn]

I ran across this chap on YT yesterday who has been researching the electricity future traders market, Are we really going to be looking at £1/kWh come the New Year?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H26Ujv72q84&t=109s

 

[Ootohere]

^^^ He will need to cut down his travels in his TESLA if he is finding it too expensive or keep charging free where he can with CPS and if he needs his car for Business use he is still going to be travelling cheap enough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 27 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

I had no idea that such as high percentage, such a large number of users are on prepayment meters and tariffs !!!!

About 4.5 million UK households that is, multiplied by the average number of people in a household currently, of 2.36, and that is 10.6 million UK People subject to this higher tariff.

 

I would have guessed about a million or so but this number represents between 1 in 6 and 1 in 5, stunned and to me makes government action even more urgent than I previously thought.

 

 

Gas	New price cap rates from 1 October 2022 -------------------------------------------------------------- Unit rate: 14.06p per kWh Standing charge: 37.51p per day	Current price cap (until 30 September 2022) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Unit rate: 7.36p per kWh Standing charge: 37.28p per day
Electricity	Unit rate: 50.93p per kWh Standing charge: 51.41p per day	Unit rate: 28.11p per kWh Standing charge: 50.27p per day
Rates and standing charges are averages, which vary by region. Assumes payment via prepayment meter and includes VAT (at 5%).

Edited 28 August, 2022 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

@lol-lol On prepayment meters. An old article from the 90s not long after the electric companies brought them in. Some might say forced upon customers. 

With costs going up and up, it's not a great leap to see such tragedies happening again.

 

https://www.nickdavies.net/1992/12/21/death-by-fire-and-privatisation/

[Ootohere]

If Middle Income Earners on £45,000 might struggle and some will it needs remembering that there might be 1 person in that home.  2, several including children etc etc.      So are the multi occupancy getting the same or more help when some of that £45,000 is already made up of tax credits, and allowances while the single hard working individual is taxed more and getting no help.  Maybe a pensioner, maybe getting £1,000 as it is with the current announced help.        Supposedly  there is 85% of UK homes heated by gas.    This was a figure that eventually got to because lots of area of the UK had homes heated or just kept dry with bottled gas,  electric, coal, oil or even peat.   Off mains properties that billions were spent getting gas to.    The UK and statistics and targeted assistance and programmes are always rubbish.   Billions over the past 40 years on insulation schemes and then stripping that out and re-insullating.  Same with condensing boilers.        Government ministers clueless as usual introducing job creation schemes that are just Money eaters generation after generation.   Failed schemes had company directors walk away with money as tax payers loss out as is normal practice.  Building and planning controls and standards England and Wales are different from Scotland but none are as they should be in this Century or even decade.     Time now to plan properly what can be built and where and what is needed including water and sewage and facilities and efficiency.  

Edited 28 August, 2022 by roottoot

[PetrolDave]

45 minutes ago, roottoot said:

Time now to plan properly what can be built and where and what is needed including water and sewage and facilities and efficiency.  

100% agree.

 

What I find unacceptable is the lack of common standards for housing - where I used to live in North Devon every new build had solar PV panels but where I now live in Wiltshire not one new build has solar PV panels, this applies even on the supposedly same design house built by the same builder?

 

When deciding on the grants for replacing gas boilers with heat pumps the Government need to take into account the total cost including probably having to improve insulation and fit larger radiators and not just the cost of the heat pump alone - otherwise the up front cost will remain unaffordable for many, leaving them still in the position of having to choose between heat or eat. Maybe a scheme similar to the Student Loan Scheme where you don't repay unless/until you earn above a threshold would be better than a limited amount Grant?

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, @Lee said:

@lol-lol On prepayment meters. An old article from the 90s not long after the electric companies brought them in. Some might say forced upon customers. 

With costs going up and up, it's not a great leap to see such tragedies happening again.

 

https://www.nickdavies.net/1992/12/21/death-by-fire-and-privatisation/

 

UK Government have provided data on most of the prepayment meters and it makes quite interesting reading.

The percentage of meters looked quite evenly spread to me ie 15-20% of household in each of the 400 UK areas.

 

3.2M meters included in this and total amount of electricity was 11,450,774,893 kWh, or put another way nearly 11.5 TWh.

 

At over 50p per kWh that is finding an extra £6B for those 4M odd users ie £1500 a year, £125 a month.

 

This is just for electricity, gas or whatever heating people use will probably be the same again ie £250 a month extra needed.

Let us hope the two PM candidates manage to squeeze in a bit of learning about the hardship of the poor in amongst their jousting against each other how to impress the160k members of the Con party for their votes of support so they can quickly start dealing with the crisis on Monday 5th September.   

 

Local-authority-prepayment-electricity-statistics-2017.xls

[Ootohere]

We know how money can go straight to those on Universal Credit,

just in the same way they did the Uplift during Covid which then was cut.  So re-instating that is easy.

 

Same with those on means tested benefits, the money can be paid as their monthly or 2 weekly payments are now.

 

Everyone who is an adult Working or earning or with incomes should have a Tax Code so easy enough to make the adjustment so they pay less tax by what ever amount it is decided people should be helped.

 

Then there is the Council Tax bands and it is only this year that some in the lower bands were given help even if only by £150.

Easy enough to reduce properties amount on that CT bill even with those in higher bands if they want to. 

[Ootohere]

Truss the great big new start for the UK seemingly is saying no to extra help for everyone.   That sounds right.   As will be her paying for her own heating at whichever place she decides to lay her or her families heads.  Own house, constituency house or grace and favour property.  

[cheezemonkhai]

4 hours ago, roottoot said:

Truss the great big new start for the UK seemingly is saying no to extra help for everyone.   That sounds right.   As will be her paying for her own heating at whichever place she decides to lay her or her families heads.  Own house, constituency house or grace and favour property.  

Submit a petition forcing a debate on wether MP should have their expenses paid by the taxpayer when inflation is above 3% ?

Edited 28 August, 2022 by cheezemonkhai

[lol-lol]

Note on Octopus website........

 

Ofgem, the energy regulator has announced that the energy price cap will increase to £3,549 for a typical dual fuel household from October 1st.

Octopus has not yet made decisions on its prices - we are working on our plans and expect to announce changes in the next 10 days.

We know this is a stressful time for everyone, and will be increasing our support for customers who need it most.

For support, visit our Energy Crisis Information Hub https://octopus.energy/blog/energy-crisis-information/

For regular updates, visit our blog octopus.energy/price-cap

[Ootohere]

It is a Price Cap on the cost of kWh so units of Gas & Electric.

 

The Maximum that can be charged for it. 

 

This 'Typical Duel Fuel Household'  stuff is a load of guff.  Averages again.  Frightening figures of thousands and thousands of quid.

 

The Typical low usage dual fuel household that maybe paid £60 a month in 2021 and had that double to £120 and will see it double again maybe in 2023 to £240 a month will be paying £2,880 a year. 

 

Averages & Typical households and the figures given do not seem to reflect real world IMO. 

There are so many that would use double, treble or many multiples of the Lowest Duel Fuel users.

 

Many of the lowest income households will not turn on central heating and still pay the standing charge for gas.

Many in the UK need not have actual central heating on and the house might not get that cold for more than a few weeks of the year. 

 

It is the children and vulnerable that need the heating and assistance and many others need just pay towards the cost of Russia Invading the Ukraine and all the other excuses made for customers being ripped off for the price of energy in the UK.

[@Lee]

I see The Time has some money saving tips including shower at work and use someone else's leccy to blow dry your hair.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/heres-how-to-save-28-a-week-from-october-lw9wxtjxv

 

Image of the Telegraph removed. A convincing fake.

Edited 29 August, 2022 by @Lee

[Ootohere]

Let's keep it simple.  A 1kWh fire will cost you 52 pence an hour to use so for 24 hours that is £12.48.   so £374 a month, and  that is if do not have a pre payment meter.    There is obviously the kettle, toaster, microwave needing the occasional use as well. Maybe a mobile phone charger.  Quite I bit of money a week as we know because there is the standing charges even when no to using the gas.     Minimum electric as I have it now with no heating Is 4-5 kWh a day.   So with price cap you are at up to £3 plus a day.  

Edited 29 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

29 minutes ago, @Lee said:

I see The Time has some money saving tips including shower at work and use someone else's leccy to blow dry your hair.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/heres-how-to-save-28-a-week-from-october-lw9wxtjxv

Meanwhile, the Telegraph suggest firing your cook.

 

 

Oh yes I have already been thinking what employees and indeed people staying at hotels may well get up to.

But not on in premises but also when driving the company car, official vehicle what can be done.

 

Staying longer in the office to keep warm is one thing but think of all those devices one has that require recharging.

 

Or workers might bring in some of the smaller battery storage devices which even fit quite neatly in once laptop bag etc.......

This one is £99 on Amazon currently.  Charger it up at a hotel etc and have 4 USB and a some AC as well.

  

 

Or in ones suitcase the rather nice Ecoflow mini 

 

 

 

Or charge it as one is going along to client visits via the cigarette lighter.  

I can many organisations ie companies and hotels etc checking their electricity bills and certain employees and guests suddenly using much more electricity than before.

[lol-lol]

11 minutes ago, roottoot said:

Let's keep it simple.  A 1kWh fire will cost you 52 pence an hour to use so for 24 hours that is £12.48.   so £374 a month, and  that is if do not have a pre payment meter.    There is obviously the kettle, toaster, microwave needing the occasional use as well. Maybe a mobile phone charger.  Quite I bit of money a week as we know because there is the standing charges even when no to using the gas.     Minimum electric as I have it now with no heating Is 4-5 kWh a day.   So with price cap you are at up to £3 plus a day.  

 

I get mine a bit lower than that as I insert a battery device in between my mains supply as my fridge freezer, similar to the ecoflow above but I am a Bluetti fanboy.

So my EB180, 1.8kWh, gets some charge between midnight and 0430 and the the fridge freezer runs on that 24 hours a day on the 5p a kWH, it probably uses about 2 kWH a day, 4 hours from the mains at 5p kwh and 20 hours from the EB180 battery.  That is the theory though I do seem to run out late evening sometimes and have to switch over early but I need a more powerful AC adapter to the EB180 as the current one only adds about 220W per hour but I should be getting an up to 500W charge arriving this week from Bluetti which will take DC from lots of sources ie 12v lead acid and turn it in to 58v charging for the EB180.

 

Really jut been playing with it over the past few months and the investment, I acknowledge, is quite high ie plus £1k, but saving should go from £1 a day currently to nearer £2 a day soon and even £3 a day next year I reckon.  This unit has a 1kW 220v output inverter in addition to the USB and cigarette lighter out on the front of the machine.

Should give me about 18 hours resilience against black out but I need the next stage up to go a day plus and still have fridge-freezer intact.  

     

[Ootohere]

@lol-lolyou have loads of money, plenty to buy your money saving devices.   It is people like yourself that has the crazy low figures showing as the typical duel fuel home user, also me that uses nearly nothing.     That is not a single parent or couple at home on minimum income with children in colder parts of the UK .    I do not buy milk anymore or cheese and only keep bread in the freezer so the fridge freezer is going in February when my fixed tariff ends.  

Edited 29 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

39 minutes ago, roottoot said:

@lol-lolyou have loads of money, plenty to buy your money saving devices.   It is people like yourself that has the crazy low figures showing as the typical duel fuel home user, also me that uses nearly nothing.     That is not a single parent or couple at home on minimum income with children in colder parts of the UK .    I do not buy milk anymore or cheese and only keep bread in the freezer so the fridge freezer is going in February when my fixed tariff ends.  

 

I continue to try more and more to use less power from the grid and gas as it is clear that immoral/amoral power companies will rake in the profits and we have a government who think this is OK as it is simply commercial reality, despite it being from British land and sea effectively that UK resource being sold back to the people for almost half of what we use.

 

If I use off peak electricity, rather than peak electricity, and hundreds of thousands of us home energy amateur enthusiasts will be doing the same then that has us not completing for the scarce resource of peak time electricity.  It can be seen that in the future that those who wish to charge their EVs either early morning or evening time could be restricted to lower charge rates as EVs charging at this time are sapping the electricity grid at a these critical times, I almost never charge during the day or evening at all.

 

We need teams of people helping vulnerable people, people with kids to help them minimise their usage and use at peak time and it would be good if device manufacturers and for devices, particularly fridge-freezers but even TVs, routers and I like the battery bases for the Amazon Echos, great/safe for using in the bathroom and then plug in during night time of cheap lecky, simples. Buy at Prime days for a bargain.  Milk is so expensive, using soy milk drink for me but proper milk for son.  I can see many giving up or losing power for their fridges. If I retire soon I would like to work as community help in this area it would be very emotionally rewarding.  I hope the lecky companies offer everyone the cheap night time power so people have a chance to survive the winter, boil kettles, get hot water bottles filled, hot drinks prepared.  Perhaps schools will acts as warmth centres, we may well need this, modern churches as well. 

 

 

 

 

      

[Ootohere]

I have just watched Angela Knight, ex of Energy UK on BBC tonight.

On The Context with Christian Fraser.   (On iplayer probably.)

http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Knight

 

There is someone that understands UK Energy and in the EU & Rof Europe and Globally, and can explain it an easy to understand way.

As she says the solutions are not easy.

Countries having energy wars and outbidding others will be a start, eg the US & Japan. 

 

May 2022.

 

 

Edited 29 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

21 minutes ago, roottoot said:

I have just watched Angela Knight of Energy UK on BBC tonight.  http://wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Knight  There is someone that understands UK Energy and in the EU & R of Europe and Globally, and can explain it an easy to understand way. As she says the solutions are not easy.  Countries having energy wars and outbidding others will be a start, eg the US & Japan.  May 2022.

 

The UK is not is the best of positions it has been in its history as contrary to what the Con government says the UK is not in the "strong" economic position that it tries to convince UK voters and itself.  The journey of the pound over the last year shows how little buying power the UK pound has on those 85% of world goods that are valued in USDs....

We should have been strongly building nuclear and renewables over the last decade but instead we whistled Dixie and now have only just kicked up the pace in the 11th hour of energy emergency. 

 

 

[Ootohere]

England should have been getting on building nuclear and onshore wind because really it is not energy rich or self-sufficient.

But then the Government picks fights with France and China who actually would be building it. 

 

I see today that Norway is to do carbon capture taking from the Netherlands as liquid, Co2 from a fertilizer plant that is going to be stored. 

So this must work.  

Pity the UK are still talking about it rather than it happening at Peterhead and going into the North Sea from there. 

 

I thought we had a Co2 shortage.     Different Co2 then. 

 

 

Edited 29 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, roottoot said:

England should have been getting on building nuclear and onshore wind because really it is not energy rich or self-sufficient.

But then the Government picks fights with France and China who actually would be building it. 

I see today that Norway is to do carbon capture taking from the Netherlands as liquid, Co2 from a fertilizer plant that is going to be stored. 

So this must work.    Pity the UK are still talking about it rather than it happening at Peterhead and going into the North Sea from there. 

I thought we had a Co2 shortage.     Different Co2 then. 

 

England does not want onshore wind turbines in this green and pleasant land but prefers to go for offshore wind and hence has the biggest firm farm in the world in the form of Horsea One- off the coast of Yorkshire,  but this will be surpassed by Hornsea Two which should be commissioned this week which is almost 1.4 GW compared to Hornsea One's 1.2 GW.

 

So the UK looks to have its nose in front but China is, like with so many construction projects building off shore wind farms hell for leather. 

Lots of good news here with the amount of wind power being double, quadrupled and septupled in the foreseeable future both here in the UK and worldwide (but not much in the US oddly).    

 

https://gwec.net/world-installs-6-1gw-of-offshore-wind-in-2020-led-by-china/

 

  

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/offshore-onshore-wind-power-auction-capacity/

 

[lol-lol]

Back to inflation rather than hopefully one of the eventual cures to rising energy prices.....

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-27/price-cap-experts-forecast-7-700-average-bills-next-year?srnd=premium-uk#xj4y7vzkg

&

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11153269/As-price-cap-hit-7-700-year-REALLY-blame-soaring-energy-bills.html

Price Cap Experts Forecast £7,700 Average Bills Next Year

THE PRESS ASSOCIATION (August Graham, PA City Reporter)  August 27, 2022 at 9:48 AM GMT+1

Forecasts of what the next capped energy price for 24 million households could be have co.

&

As experts warn price cap could hit £7,700 next year, who is REALLY to blame for our soaring energy bills?

• Bills are set to rise to £3,500 a year from October  - but who is to blame?
• The Kremlin cutting supplies of gas to Europe is the No 1 reason. By starving supplies, prices for gas have spiralled  
• But before Putin, wholesale prices were already rising last autumn due to Covid
• Putin &  

  Ofgem

  The regulator has been accused of siding with suppliers. It has given in to a string of demands, such as calculating the cap every three months rather than every six. Money-saving expert Martin Lewis and Age UK have criticised elements of these changes, which one expert estimated added £400 to a typical bill.

  Energy producers

  For the first quarter of this year, profits for Shell tripled – and for BP they doubled. Harbour Energy, the biggest oil and gas producer in UK waters, last week said profits were up 1,000 per cent. These companies extract gas from the ground – and the 14-fold rise in wholesale prices is pure profit. Energy suppliers

  Most suppliers are not making huge profits, since the cap limits what they can make. Some even lost money last winter when the cap kept prices low. But British Gas and Scottish Power are also energy producers, like BP and Shell. Those parts of their businesses are very profitable.

  Politicians

  Liz Truss, the frontrunner to be PM, and rival Rishi Sunak have both given few details on how they will cut bills. Ms Truss, as reported in today’s MoS, is clear she has a plan ready to unveil. But the delay is causing anxiety among millions facing bills that could hit £7,700 from next April.

   

Edited 30 August, 2022 by lol-lol