Used Car Prices

[Aspman]

On 24/10/2022 at 11:40, ruida_silva said:

Similar boat as you. I had a spreadsheet which I made in 2019 with a somewhat accurate prediction of what the prices will be in 3 years time (2022) of the cars I would be interested in buying and they're well off. I was hoping an M140i would be about 18k this year for a shadow edition with pro nav etc but they're at least 24k.

 

I've also been tracking Autotrader adverts/prices for the last 2 months on several cars/models and I've found they've not changed neither, apart from total cars for sale has gone up by nearly 20k, but I'm only 2 months in. Don't see me finding any quick cars for under 18k and good spec next year by the looks of it, so the fabia will probably be getting an overhaul next summer to make me enjoy driving it a bit more.

 

Yep, Lots of very powerful motors still selling well it seems but I can see stock of fast BMWs starting to build. Prices still high.

It's going to take time for the market to go off I suppose. I'll be hanging off until Jan I guess.

[ruida_silva]

21 minutes ago, Aspman said:

 

Yep, Lots of very powerful motors still selling well it seems but I can see stock of fast BMWs starting to build. Prices still high.

It's going to take time for the market to go off I suppose. I'll be hanging off until Jan I guess.

I've seen a lot stay on sale and gradually come down in price. Only the cheaper ones seem to go quick. Looks like people are being stubborn and demanding top money when they're not worth that and every week I see some advert prices dropping. If they don't drop then they stay that same price for weeks and weeks. I've seen someone on the owners groups sell a farly stunning, low mileage leon cupra for 26k like 2 months ago and it's now 24k and still for sale. It's arguably the nicest cupra I've seen, yet I'm seeing buyer reluctance to even pay that much, which is great.

 

Tbh, unless I'm desparate or find the absolute perfect one, 17-18k will be a reluctant buy. To me, they'll be another year older and can't justify paying yesteryear's prices just because of demand and covid. 

[Ootohere]

Lots if vehicles that traders and dealers have for sale were bought using borrowed money / finance, especially ones from auctions. 

At some point if the interest rises they have to cut their losses or just cut their profits and sell the vehicle. 

[ruida_silva]

8 minutes ago, roottoot said:

Lots if vehicles that traders and dealers have for sale were bought using borrowed money / finance, especially ones from auctions. 

At some point if the interest rises they have to cut their losses or just cut their profits and sell the vehicle. 

Exactly, tip of the mountain has to come soon followed by an avalanche of stock to be sold and prices coming down. Just hope that happens very soon

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, Aspman said:

 

TBH an efficient petrol might actually be cheaper than an electric right now. Neighbours electric is costing him about £30 to 'fill' right now on cheap rate lekky and he's been topping up at the free council chargers when he can. The council is withdrawing the free charge and his bill could be going up. so he's going to be about £50 for 200 miles in his car. I bet there are plenty of ICE cars that can do 200 miles on 50 of petrol or diesel even at todays prices.

 

I feel I have hit the sweet spot with the Arkana / Zoe combination and this has been compounded by the fact that my company quite readily renewed by fuel card from my old diesel card to a new petrol card but continued to prevaricate on giving me a lecky card to use.

 

But no current EV can match the Arkana for range, which is not far short of 600 miles even a gentle motorway progress rates of 60 to 70 mph, M6 is oft too busy to do much more.  With petrol around 160 p per litre,  and I was in the 20% tax bracket but looks like I will be in the 40% bracket now I have vastly reduced monies go in to pension fund as that has been so bad a use of pay in the last year or so, therefore my personal fuel hit was 3p a mile at 20% tax but is now more like 6p per mile with the Arkana it much closer to the Zoe than it was with lecky having gone up 50% lin price ie 7.5 per kWh instead of 5p per kWH so the Zoe is more like 2p per kWh when it was 1p per kWh but mileage is well over its PCP annual rate, set it at 6k and it is running more like 8k so will back off that.   

 

Biggest money difference was in the buy price of an EV ie the Renault Megane-e I tested, £38k in mid spec, only just over 200 miles range at motorway speeds so frequent charging ie daily in journey probably but the Arkana I got for £25k, bigger car, very relaxing to drive, glad I chose that over the Megane-e. I will not be returning to EVs until they are better value.

 

VAT needs reducing on EVs to same level as the lecky ie 5%, then they might spurt on selling them but for now I can see a stall in EV sales happening as they are just not good value to buy and increasingly quite close to the same running costs as an efficient petrol hybrid, even a mild one like my Arkana which spend quite some time with no propulsion at all other than gravity, the engine off and the hybrid battery just running the power steering, lights etc whilst it cover hundreds of metres at time using Newtonian physics.

 

                   M1*M2 *6.67 × 10^-11 Newtons kg^-2 m²

^{Force =   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------}

                  Distances between objects CoG squared

 

 

Both the Zoe and Arkana less than £280 pm each with a few K down trade in, happy motoring.  That said the Treasury 45p per mile compensation rate is crap if that is the total compensation for doing business miles.     

 

 

 

[Ootohere]

@Aspman What EV does your neighbour have?

I think your neighbour can not do his maths or knows what electricity / public chargers are costing. 

 Is he an accountant???

 

No idea what his idea of cheap rate electric is that he is using.

Those with off peak consider cheap as less than 10 pence a kWh. 

Normal tariff is 30 pence or less.

Maybe 34 pence now on the new tariff.

*** So 60 x 34 pence = £20.40.   

  60 kWh getting 3.5 miles per kWh will take you 210 miles.   if getting 4 miles a kWh then 240 miles.***

 

If his car has a 60 kWh battery he would be paying 50 pence a kWh for it to cost him £30 to charge full to empty.

 

On a 28 pence standard tariff it would be £16.80.   

 That is the tariff from tomorrow @ TESCO for 7 kW charging, 22kw Charging will be 40 pence & 50 kW will be 50 pence,

 

I will start using Angus council chargers @ 23 pence a kWh,  that would be £13.80 for a 60 kWh battery charge, 

 

For my 40 kWh that will be £9.20 for about 120-130 miles.  Because my car is not efficient. Or my driving is not.

Edinburgh City Council Public charging is 35 pence a kWh.

Perth & Kinross is going to be 30 pence next year.

 

East Lothian. Wallyford is 30 pence a kWh now.   60 kWh @ 30 pence a kWh would cost him £18.

 

If he gets 3 miles per kWh that would be 180 miles for £18.  if he gets 3.5 miles that is 210 miles.

 

.....................

This is what i paid at Tesco / Lidl PodPoints since last November & what i paid at Charge Place Scotland chargers this year.

No home charging done. 

 

...................

Bottom, from another thread when i had an efficient diesel courtesy car. 

 

Edited 31 October, 2022 by roottoot

[Aspman]

On 31/10/2022 at 18:57, roottoot said:

@Aspman What EV does your neighbour have?

I think your neighbour can not do his maths or knows what electricity / public chargers are costing. 

 

 

 

He's got a Hyundai but tbh I'm paraphrasing a conversation from a while back.

[Aspman]

Starting to see some movement now on expensive to run cars.

[ruida_silva]

27 minutes ago, Aspman said:

Starting to see some movement now on expensive to run cars.

Very slight but starting. About £500 cheaper ish on some models with certain ages and mileage I've been following. My spreadsheet is the greenest it has looked since I started monitoring prices in September lol

[robt100]

Seems there is also a bit of compression going on with prices, even the old stuff is going up, well the asking prices. Finding something that isn't on its last month of life is going to cost you 2K+ it seems. Bought a 1998 Corolla 1.3GS a few months back, 95K P/S/H, 3 owners from new, for £450. Looked on the usual places yesterday and they are all over 2 grand for the same car?!

[Tilt]

Thought a little more on this and of course (I'm assuming) these online companies must be investment backed ............

 

So therefore it is investors stockpiling the supply and therefore interfering with supply.

 

The demand probably hasn't gone up, rather that the supply has been stifled by said investors, via these online car sites, by simply hoarding cars.

 

Crafty way of price fixing if you ask me .................

[ruida_silva]

34 minutes ago, Tilt said:

Thought a little more on this and of course (I'm assuming) these online companies must be investment backed ............

 

So therefore it is investors stockpiling the supply and therefore interfering with supply.

 

The demand probably hasn't gone up, rather that the supply has been stifled by said investors, via these online car sites, by simply hoarding cars.

 

Crafty way of price fixing if you ask me .................

Agreed. Over Christmas, AutoTrader peaked at 454k adverts and now it’s at 422k adverts. That’s a big decrease 

[Ootohere]

Interesting used prices if you have the right car.

 

 

[Aspman]

Deffo prices softening on some cars although not exactly cheap. Seeing prices not looking as mental as they were on LR stuff recently (looks like I did shift mine at a good time).
Lots of Ex-lease M5s hanging around. The Non-competition stuff is dropping now but not the comp models. Stuff further down the price range is still hanging in tight.
I need to get something bigger before summer but there is very little around that still doesn't look very overpriced to me.
 

[Aspman]

Aaaand I’ve gone and bought a Maserati. 2016 Quattroporte diesel.

 

 Time will tell if this was a terrible mistake. But it’s a very pretty mistake 

[NeilMH]

50 minutes ago, Aspman said:

Aaaand I’ve gone and bought a Maserati. 2016 Quattroporte diesel.

 

 Time will tell if this was a terrible mistake. But it’s a very pretty mistake 

Fantastic looking cars - I nearly bought a black petrol one a few years ago but chickened out! Good luck with it. Ended up with an XK8 which wasn't exactly trouble free so maybe I should have gambled - wasn't a huge amount of money.

[KenONeill]

4 hours ago, Aspman said:

Aaaand I’ve gone and bought a Maserati. 2016 Quattroporte diesel.

This thread is worthless without pictures!!

[Aspman]

6 hours ago, KenONeill said:

This thread is worthless without pictures!!

Might be a week or so till i pick it up

[skomaz]

17 hours ago, Aspman said:

Aaaand I’ve gone and bought a Maserati. 2016 Quattroporte diesel.

 

 Time will tell if this was a terrible mistake. But it’s a very pretty mistake 

 

Great looking car...   Just hope it's reliable... 

[Aspman]

7 hours ago, skomaz said:

 

Great looking car...   Just hope it's reliable... 

owner of the garage was pretty up front. He’s got an older GTS himself. Said he loves it but don’t expect Mid 90s VW reliable. However internet chatter is that they are better than their reputation. It’s coming with 12M aftermarket warranty that’s nothing like approved used warranty but it’ll cover the big stuff. 
 

I am quite childishly looking forward to being asked what i drive, it’ll be nice to say “Maserati” rather than BMW, Audi, Ford etc. It’s exotic (say with a Waynetta Slob voice).

 

 

Edited 19 February, 2023 by Aspman

[skomaz]

Tell you what...   Those quattroporte are cheaper than I thought.  Just looked on auto trader and there's a nice low mileage one in Dundee in that dark metallic blue...   Makes you think...   But then it probably wouldn't be as good as the Kodiaq at lugging wheelchairs and crap around... 

Edited 19 February, 2023 by skomaz

[Aspman]

On 19/02/2023 at 21:25, skomaz said:

Tell you what...   Those quattroporte are cheaper than I thought.  Just looked on auto trader and there's a nice low mileage one in Dundee in that dark metallic blue...   Makes you think...   But then it probably wouldn't be as good as the Kodiaq at lugging wheelchairs and crap around... 

That one in Dundee might not be available any more 😜

[skomaz]

1 hour ago, Aspman said:

That one in Dundee might not be available any more 😜

 

Aha - good choice that man!!!

 

Of the few on Autotrader that was the one that stood out for me as the pick of the bunch -hope you like it!

[Aspman]

Bit sad, my Mazzer has been delayed.
I'd agreed with the dealer that the would be inspected before handover and if discs/pads were under 50% they'd be changed. Dealer also offered to change oil.
So brakes are getting renewed but they found a broken spring on the car and they are going to change the front pair.
But Maserati springs are on back order, 2-4 weeks 😭

[ruida_silva]

TLDR: Waterfall in car prices at some point, don't know when, hopefully soon

 

So I have a bit of a theory with these car prices. Does anyone here trade/crypto/do forex and knows what support and resistances are? Well for example if you look at the auto trader price index you see the graph go way high due to covid, now it's sort of sitting between a range boucing up and down off what I would say a support and resistance area. In trading when any of those lines are broken you can usually see a rocket or a waterfall. On the screenshot, Red line is resistance, Blue line is support, Green line is what I think it will do. The graph is over a big time frame so it doesn't look like is bouncing that much but if you were to do it over the daily, I bet you'd see it go up down up down between those lines. Can't change time frame though

 

Reasons the price is high:

• Talk - people saying "Oh car prices are incredibly high" this talk helps keep prices high as it's an expectation
• Retail buyers - People still buying cars for the high price they are, helps keep them high
• Supply - Don't agree with this as much as on autotrader, before covid we had a very similar number of adverts regardless of whether there is a load of stock sitting in a yeard by the big companies to control supply

These above, to me are simply not strong enough to keep prices high, there needs to be something else solid to support it so I'd call these reasons a weak support, like you would in trading

 

Reasons the price should break that support and come crashing down:

 

• Fuel prices are still high, performance car owner's belts had to get tighter. Government might put the 5p tax back on top and then increase it further if they want
• Mortgage rates, in the past year there will have been people with nice cars and houses have their fixed interest come to an end, get a new much higher rate and have to tighten belts
• Energy costs, we all know how high they are, even higher bills for everyone
• General cost of living
• New car deliveries getting quicker and quicker with more deals being released

 

At some point, a small influx of people will take advantage of these high prices because they're struggling and need the cash, that sudden influx will break that price support and then you'll see everyone follow suit in a panic because their car has just lost a grand in value, so everyone then lists theirs for sale, supply then drastically overtaking the demand.

 

If anybody has every heard of the Crypto called Luna, this is kinda the same. Very valuable coin, but in the background not very stable or well supported (like the reasons I mentioned above for used car prices to still be high). Kinda like an empire state building being held by a single brick pillar. Blackrock sell billions of Bitcoin, sends everything all over the place and that very unstable support for Luna suddenly desintegrates, down it comes from £80 a coin to a fraction of a penny.

 

I believe same will happen for used car prices... I just don't know when. Thanks for reading

Edited 15 March, 2023 by ruida_silva