EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[domhnall]

someone is thinking creatively  http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041#.V5cJ_kJhKJg.twitter

[lol-lol]

someone is thinking creatively  http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-three-state-union-may-be-answer-to-brexit-1.2734041#.V5cJ_kJhKJg.twitter

 

Airstrip One is a term increasingly appropriate.     

 

[lol-lol]

FML, people are talking themselves into a recession.

If the news, the people and everyone say we will have a recession, then people stop spending and we do.

Talk about self fulfilling prophecy!

 

People will naturally adapt to the new normal ie economic uncertainty due to the UK's impending loss of unfettered access to the world's largest economic market and weaker exchange rates meaning many goods becoming more expensive and foreign travel also more expensive. 

 

There certainly are opportunities without EU labour laws ie the EWTD, companies will be able to sidestep labour laws and use the lower labour cost and less restrictions.

 

Leaving the EU can be quite good for some businesses and all under the banner of England standing on its own two feet in the world so win-win.

 

Mixture of Animal Farm and 1984 plots it seems.

 

There are still lots of opportunities to make a good living in the UK but on the 24th of June we all woke up to a very different climate and people must adapt or...

Edited 27 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[jlwah]

Looks like the Remain doom mongers got it wrong (yet again) with their cries about the economy:

 

ONS chief economist Joe Grice said: "Continued strong growth across services, particularly in retailing, reinforced by healthy growth in the manufacture of cars and pharmaceuticals, boosted output in the second quarter.

"Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect. Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."

Manufacturing output grew at 2.1% in the quarter, which was its "best gain since 1999", said Neil Wilson, an analyst at ETX Capital.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

 

In addition: GlaxoSmithKline is to invest £275m to expand its UK manufacturing sites, saying the country remains "an attractive location" despite Brexit

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36901027

 

Edited 27 July, 2016 by jlwah

[cheezemonkhai]

Yeah, but the EU knows what is best for us, especially tose who want to punish us for daring to say we're not happy.

We must submit to the stockholm syndrome and defend them while doing their bidding.

[trundlenut]

Looks like the Remain doom mongers got it wrong (yet again) with their cries about the economy:

ONS chief economist Joe Grice said: "Continued strong growth across services, particularly in retailing, reinforced by healthy growth in the manufacture of cars and pharmaceuticals, boosted output in the second quarter.

"Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect. Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."

Manufacturing output grew at 2.1% in the quarter, which was its "best gain since 1999", said Neil Wilson, an analyst at ETX Capital.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

In addition: GlaxoSmithKline is to invest £275m to expand its UK manufacturing sites, saying the country remains "an attractive location" despite Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36901027

But the growth data runs up until June. It's going to 2019 at the earliest before we know what's going to happen. We haven't started leaving yet.

[jlwah]

But the growth data runs up until June. It's going to 2019 at the earliest before we know what's going to happen. We haven't started leaving yet.

The trouble with that argument is that before the Referendum, Osbourne said he would have to have an emergency budget straight after the leave vote. In other words the effects would be felt immediately. A week before referendum day, for example, he told us that  ‘The economic uncertainty that the ‘Leave’ campaign carelessly insist won’t be caused is already being seen.’

 

Like nearly all Remainers and the 'experts' (in what? one might ask) he forecast (wrongly) that the Referendum was leading to uncertainty that would affect growth before the vote and send us in to a downward spiral as soon as we voted leave.

 

The growth figures show this to be untrue. House sales also point to confidence way in excess of that predicted.

 

Whilst it is still early days, the effects predicted by the experts have failed to materialise. Yes, we still haven't pressed the Article 50 button, but the hyperbole before the vote all pointed to an instant effect of a leave vote. 

Edited 27 July, 2016 by jlwah

[Ootohere]

How much insider trading will be going on among the close circle of friends and families of the UK government politicians. They have lots of knowledge of what's happening post referendum and will have more advance notice than anyone of the date or approx date the trigger is pulled in informing the EU on when the 2 year clock starts ticking

But then they would never do that would they.... Philip Hammond MP, or any others, no way Jose...

[gadgetman]

The trouble with that argument is that before the Referendum, Osbourne said he would have to have an emergency budget straight after the leave vote. In other words the effects would be felt immediately. A week before referendum day, for example, he told us that ‘The economic uncertainty that the ‘Leave’ campaign carelessly insist won’t be caused is already being seen.’

Like nearly all Remainers and the 'experts' (in what? one might ask) he forecast (wrongly) that the Referendum was leading to uncertainty that would affect growth before the vote and send us in to a downward spiral as soon as we voted leave.

The growth figures show this to be untrue. House sales also point to confidence way in excess of that predicted.

Whilst it is still early days, the effects predicted by the experts have failed to materialise. Yes, we still haven't pressed the Article 50 button, but the hyperbole before the vote all pointed to an instant effect of a leave vote.

As above, the data is from BEFORE the referendum so we'll need to wait until the next set of data is released in October to see the impact of the vote to leave.

Also as above, nothing so far has changed to affect the economy as article 50 hasn't been invoked. Most businesses are sitting on their hands as despite brexit meaning brexit, what this is and it's impact isn't yet known.

Once it is, either the boom will continue, or as many are predicting, we've just delayed the true impact for another day.

The doom as you call it is still predicted by many, and even those on the leave camp like Boris & Fox admit there will be an impact - but are crossing everything they can pull something out of the bag to prevent it.

So far the FTA's being championed aren't all that, and in the case of China could lead to the market being flooded with cheap imports which would kill our economy. They're also requesting a massive relaxation in movement of people & visa restrictions which would make the fears over Turkey look like small fry.

Until article 50 is invoked, there's nothing really to see.

[Ootohere]

110 Million squids of investment from GSK for the Montrose site in rather nice.

[cheezemonkhai]

Hmm,

 

I get the feeling we might need our archers again.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36901875

[lol-lol]

Looks like the Remain doom mongers got it wrong (yet again) with their cries about the economy:   ONS chief economist Joe Grice said: "Continued strong growth across services, particularly in retailing, reinforced by healthy growth in the manufacture of cars and pharmaceuticals, boosted output in the second quarter.  "Any uncertainties in the run-up to the referendum seem to have had a limited effect. Very few respondents to ONS surveys cited such uncertainties as negatively impacting their businesses."  Manufacturing output grew at 2.1% in the quarter, which was its "best gain since 1999", said Neil Wilson, an analyst at ETX Capital.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903164

In addition: GlaxoSmithKline is to invest £275m to expand its UK manufacturing sites, saying the country remains "an attractive location" despite Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36901027

 

The last quarter had 12 weeks thinking we were probably staying in Europe and only the last week of the quarter now believing we were pulling out of the EU so it will be this current quarter where we start to see the Brixit affect on companies.

FYI the GSK CEO wanted the UK to stay in the EU as stated at Davos.  GSK will probably be one of the minority of companies who are relatively OK with BREXIT as they pay almost nothing on imported goods as they are Annex 3 and annex 6 within the Parma index of the customs tariff, I know because I help set it up with their international logistics partner.  If you ever get to go to their building just off the A4/M4 it is possible the most impressive place of business in the UK.   Their UK costs will be lower compared to the export prices in USDs or whatever so all good but a Mr Whitty said he is primarily worried about being on the outside of the world's largest market for drug licensing.  R&D is still good in the UK and coupled with the low corporate tax rate this is good but this UK government has failed to close the gap between expenditure and receipts so the money is going to have to come from import duties (which are going to be higher for most goods due to the weaker UK currency) and taxing people rather the companies.

 

Import taxes go up from Monday with the new Customs exchange rates so we will start to see the affect of that soon.  The silverlining is at least oil price has collapsed again which should offset the 11% fall in the UK pound.   

[Ootohere]

Maybe hedging their bet then with Montrose, out of the UK and in the EU sometime in the near future.

[lol-lol]

Maybe hedging their bet then with Montrose, out of the UK and in the EU sometime in the near future.

 

Let us hope so.  With my Irish grand-father and getting an Irish Passport I may get in the fast queue to get through Scottish customs/immigration with my EU passport rather than my English one. Dual nationality here we come.

[Ootohere]

Then Scotland has their new Tax Raising powers while still being part of the UK if they stay, and are no longer in the EU.

Time will tell how things work out for a BREXIT UK.

[jlwah]

The last quarter had 12 weeks thinking we were probably staying in Europe and only the last week of the quarter now believing we were pulling out of the EU so it will be this current quarter where we start to see the Brixit affect on companies.

FYI the GSK CEO wanted the UK to stay in the EU as stated at Davos.  GSK will probably be one of the minority of companies who are relatively OK with BREXIT as they pay almost nothing on imported goods as they are Annex 3 and annex 6 within the Parma index of the customs tariff, I know because I help set it up with their international logistics partner.  If you ever get to go to their building just off the A4/M4 it is possible the most impressive place of business in the UK.   Their UK costs will be lower compared to the export prices in USDs or whatever so all good but a Mr Whitty said he is primarily worried about being on the outside of the world's largest market for drug licensing.  R&D is still good in the UK and coupled with the low corporate tax rate this is good but this UK government has failed to close the gap between expenditure and receipts so the money is going to have to come from import duties (which are going to be higher for most goods due to the weaker UK currency) and taxing people rather the companies.

 

Import taxes go up from Monday with the new Customs exchange rates so we will start to see the affect of that soon.  The silverlining is at least oil price has collapsed again which should offset the 11% fall in the UK pound.   

You rather miss the point.

 

Osbourne said that the effects of a possible Brexit were being felt BEFORE the vote, the figures show there were no effects.

 

The naysayers from the likes of the IMF, government and opposition front benches, the bankers and 'economic experts' with their sandwich board 'The End is Nigh If You Vote Leave' messages have shown that they weren't and aren't in touch with reality.

[eyegr]

The silverlining is at least oil price has collapsed again which should offset the 11% fall in the UK pound.   

 

I am really worried about countries (including my own) which are sweeping their dirt under the carpet of cheap oil. How hard will they be hit when the barrel returns to its usual $100 levels?

[lol-lol]

You rather miss the point.  Osbourne said that the effects of a possible Brexit were being felt BEFORE the vote, the figures show there were no effects.

The naysayers from the likes of the IMF, government and opposition front benches, the bankers and 'economic experts' with their sandwich board 'The End is Nigh If You Vote Leave' messages have shown that they weren't and aren't in touch with reality.

 

Osborne has proved to be an idiot over the last 6 years and has got many thing wrong.  Mark Carney and even Philip Hammond have made more sensible statements about the reality of a weaker British pound.

 

Fortunately the US did not raise its interest rates and if the UK lowers it base rates then that would drive our currency even lower.  The Treasury will get a kick from increased import taxes that I will be collecting on their behalf from Monday working on the 1.31 rate of exchange USDs per GBP.

 

The lower crude oil prices will be a welcome arrival but higher import prices will fuel inflation though August through to the end of the year at least and it will be interesting how businesses react to absorb or how much they will pass on to consumers.   

 

It will not be Armageddon but just a significant reduction in disposable income which will be very significant for many.  Some London property funds have closed due to the downgrading of their value but I see that as no bad thing for UK locals.  Working in the Customs arena I see a very rosy future in all the additional revenues in the returning of doing customs entries connection 600 million people as the cloud has a silver lining.       

[Ootohere]

Everyone is Derren Brown now.   or think they are.

  If everyone is so certain on everything then they can all be investors traders and millionaires.

[jlwah]

Osborne has proved to be an idiot over the last 6 years and has got many thing wrong.  Mark Carney and even Philip Hammond have made more sensible statements about the reality of a weaker British pound.

 

Fortunately the US did not raise its interest rates and if the UK lowers it base rates then that would drive our currency even lower.  The Treasury will get a kick from increased import taxes that I will be collecting on their behalf from Monday working on the 1.31 rate of exchange USDs per GBP.

 

The lower crude oil prices will be a welcome arrival but higher import prices will fuel inflation though August through to the end of the year at least and it will be interesting how businesses react to absorb or how much they will pass on to consumers.   

 

It will not be Armageddon but just a significant reduction in disposable income which will be very significant for many.  Some London property funds have closed due to the downgrading of their value but I see that as no bad thing for UK locals.  Working in the Customs arena I see a very rosy future in all the additional revenues in the returning of doing customs entries connection 600 million people as the cloud has a silver lining.       

The chances of the BofE reducing interest rates has receded significantly as a result of the growth figures.

Carney has shown an impressive lack of ability to forecast anything with great accuracy, demonstrating neatly that a monkey could his job with ease!

 

Quite a few of the property funds have re-opened as the initial rush to withdraw funds stopped almost as quickly as it had started.

 

There is no sign of any reduction in disposable income, rather the opposite as wage increases have been generally quite a way ahead of inflation.

[lol-lol]

The chances of the BofE reducing interest rates has receded significantly as a result of the growth figures.    Carney has shown an impressive lack of ability to forecast anything with great accuracy, demonstrating neatly that a monkey could his job with ease!  Quite a few of the property funds have re-opened as the initial rush to withdraw funds stopped almost as quickly as it had started.  There is no sign of any reduction in disposable income, rather the opposite as wage increases have been generally quite a way ahead of inflation.

 

UK joins Greece at bottom of wage growth league

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd

 

Britain has suffered a bigger fall in real wages since the financial crisis than any other advanced country apart from Greece, research shows.  A report by the TUC, published on Wednesday, shows that real earnings have declined more than 10% since the credit crunch began in 2007, leaving the UK equal bottom in a league table of wages growth.   Using data from the OECD’s recent employment outlook, the TUC found that over the same 2007-2015 period, real wages grew in Poland by 23%, in Germany by 14%, and in France by 11%. Across the OECD, real wages increased by an average of 6.7%.   The TUC found that between 2007 and 2015 in the UK, real wages – income from work adjusted for inflation – fell by 10.4%. That drop was equalled only by Greece in a list of 29 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).   The UK, Greece and Portugal were the only three OECD countries that saw real wages fall.   The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, who was a vocal backer of the campaign to remain in the EU, said the figures highlighted the strains on household finances even before the vote for Brexit.   “Wages fell off the cliff after the financial crisis, and have barely begun to recover,” she said. “People cannot afford another hit to their pay packets. Working people must not foot the bill for a Brexit downturn in the way they did for the bankers’ crash.”  Earnings have been rising faster than prices since the sharp drop in inflation caused by the collapse in oil prices two years ago, but the TUC warned that households risked a fresh squeeze on their spending power after the vote to leave the EU unless the new government stepped up investment to create better-paid jobs.  The Treasury said the TUC study did not fully reflect living standards, which were also affected by changes to taxes and benefits. It added that the number of people in work had been rising and was above the levels of early 2008, when the economy entered its longest and deepest postwar recession.   “This analysis ignores the point that following the great recession the UK employment rate has grown more than any G7 country, living standards have reached their highest level and wages continue to rise faster than prices – and will be helped by the new national living wage.”   However, the Treasury added: “There is more to do to build an economy and country that works for everyone not just a privileged few, and we are determined to do exactly that.”   The Institute for Fiscal Studies, which specialises in analysing living standards, said the prolonged period of depressed earnings had been one of the features that made both the recession of 2008-09 and the period since unusual.

 

Rob Joyce, an IFS researcher, said: “It is not just unusual in international terms but also unusual historically for the UK. Real wages have fallen and haven’t recovered. That’s striking.” O’Grady said the government needed to take action to boost jobs and wages: “This analysis shows why the government needs to invest in large infrastructure projects to create more ecent,well-paid jobs. Other countries have shown that it is possible to increase employment and living standards at the same time.”    The UK’s relatively poor performance on wage growth was highlighted by the OECD in its annual employment report this month. Because of a squeeze since the global financial crisis, real hourly wages were more than 25% below where they would have been if wage growth had continued at the rate observed during 2000-07, the thinktank found.  The Paris-based thinktank said that more widely, across its 34 member countries employment had almost recovered to pre-crisis levels but weak wage growth had blighted living standards.  The pressure on UK households from weak wage growth and insecure work has also been highlighted by the Bank of England’s chief economist.  Calling for a big package of measures to support the UK’s post-Brexit economy in a speech last month, Andy Haldane also explored why the recovery had not been felt by everyone. He concluded “the majority of UK households have faced a lost decade of income” as he noted that half of all UK households have seen no material recovery in their real disposable incomes since around 2005.  While wages in the UK have faltered, ministers have sought to instead highlight rising employment. But the TUC analysis found that although the UK employment rate had increased since the economic crisis, Germany, Hungary and Poland had increased employment rates more, while raising real wages at the same time.  Conor D’Arcy, policy analyst for the Resolution Foundation thinktank said: “The UK experienced the most prolonged pay squeeze in over a century in wake of the financial crisis, with young people feeling the biggest pay squeeze of all. While pay has started to recover in recent years – boosted by historically low inflation – post-Brexit uncertainty is expected to put this much-needed recovery on hold.   “Policies like the national living wage will boost pay for the very lowest earners but Britain will need to raise its game on productivity – and ensure those gains feed through into pay packets – if we’re to see stronger wage growth across the workforce.”

Edited 27 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[Scribbler]

Hmm,

 

I get the feeling we might need our archers again.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36901875

 

Hmm i think that might be a stalemate unstoppable force meets immovable object. Although the french always eventually capitulate and surrender   Im glad its not a German to be honest. Perhaps we can remind them about Entente Cordiale!

[moley]

UK joins Greece at bottom of wage growth league

 

This is nothing to do with the UK leaving the EU. If things are that bad in the UK it makes you wonder why 1000's of people want to come to live and work here.

[lol-lol]

This is nothing to do with the UK leaving the EU. If things are that bad in the UK it makes you wonder why 1000's of people want to come to live and work here.

 

One side affect of the BREXIT vote is that, through the weakened British Pound by 10%, less people are likely to find it economically worthwhile going to the UK to work.

 

An article containing details of one of my Alma Mater's reports.......

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/brexit-vote-hits-construction-and-consumers-as-growth-flattens

 

 

Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

Brexit Vote Hits Construction and Consumers as Growth Flattens

July 28, 2016 — 12:01 AM BST   Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

 

• Household confidence plunges to lowest level in three years
• Construction growth slowed in quarter before Brexit vote

Share on FacebookShare on Twitte

U.K. consumer confidence plummeted this month to its lowest level in three years and more households believe they will be worse off as a result of the Brexit referendum result.    Two surveys suggest Britons have become more concerned since the vote to leave the European Union in June, with a sentiment index by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research falling to 106.6, the lowest since July 2013, from 111.3. Consumers are most worried about household finances and property values, they said, a view echoed in a PricewaterhouseCoopers report that signaled a growing concern about wealth.  The latest surveys add to a litany of reports pointing to a slowdown since the Brexit vote. They come after GDP figures showed faster-than-estimated economic growth in the second quarter, which Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond hailed as demonstrating the U.K.’s “position of economic strength” as it prepares to negotiate its EU exit.  

 

PwC said that while its gauge has weakened, consumers are still more optimistic about their household financial situation than at any point between 2008 and early 2014. The findings suggest households don’t expect any slump as deep as the 2008-2009 recession, it said.   “While we do not expect consumer spending to grow as quickly as anticipated prior to the EU referendum, we do expect consumer spending to remain resilient,” PwC director Kien Tan said. “There is currently no evidence to suggest that a protracted decline in overall spending is on the cards.”  

 

The Cebr offered a more gloomy outlook, saying the Brexit vote has had a “very real impact” on consumers. The Confederation of British Industry said on Wednesday that retail sales fell the most in more than four years in July.  “The sharp drop in household financial expectations over the next 12 months point to a contraction of consumer spending that could have a notable knock-on effect in retail,” said Scott Corfe, Cebr director.

 

Separately, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said construction growth cooled in the second quarter, with the commercial, industrial and housing segments all seeing a slowdown. That tallies with the GDP report, which estimates that construction shrank in both May and June.  Companies also continued to struggle with funding, with 36 percent of survey respondents saying new projects were halted by a lack of cash. 

 

 

Photographer: Jason Alden/Bl

Edited 28 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[jlwah]

UK joins Greece at bottom of wage growth league

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd

 

Britain has suffered a bigger fall in real wages since the financial crisis than any other advanced country apart from Greece, research shows.  A report by the TUC, published on Wednesday, shows that real earnings have declined more than 10% since the credit crunch began in 2007, leaving the UK equal bottom in a league table of wages growth.   Using data from the OECD’s recent employment outlook, the TUC found that over the same 2007-2015 period, real wages grew in Poland by 23%, in Germany by 14%, and in France by 11%. Across the OECD, real wages increased by an average of 6.7%.   The TUC found that between 2007 and 2015 in the UK, real wages – income from work adjusted for inflation – fell by 10.4%. That drop was equalled only by Greece in a list of 29 countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).   The UK, Greece and Portugal were the only three OECD countries that saw real wages fall.   The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, who was a vocal backer of the campaign to remain in the EU, said the figures highlighted the strains on household finances even before the vote for Brexit.   “Wages fell off the cliff after the financial crisis, and have barely begun to recover,” she said. “People cannot afford another hit to their pay packets. Working people must not foot the bill for a Brexit downturn in the way they did for the bankers’ crash.”  Earnings have been rising faster than prices since the sharp drop in inflation caused by the collapse in oil prices two years ago, but the TUC warned that households risked a fresh squeeze on their spending power after the vote to leave the EU unless the new government stepped up investment to create better-paid jobs.  The Treasury said the TUC study did not fully reflect living standards, which were also affected by changes to taxes and benefits. It added that the number of people in work had been rising and was above the levels of early 2008, when the economy entered its longest and deepest postwar recession.   “This analysis ignores the point that following the great recession the UK employment rate has grown more than any G7 country, living standards have reached their highest level and wages continue to rise faster than prices – and will be helped by the new national living wage.”   However, the Treasury added: “There is more to do to build an economy and country that works for everyone not just a privileged few, and we are determined to do exactly that.”   The Institute for Fiscal Studies, which specialises in analysing living standards, said the prolonged period of depressed earnings had been one of the features that made both the recession of 2008-09 and the period since unusual.

 

Rob Joyce, an IFS researcher, said: “It is not just unusual in international terms but also unusual historically for the UK. Real wages have fallen and haven’t recovered. That’s striking.” O’Grady said the government needed to take action to boost jobs and wages: “This analysis shows why the government needs to invest in large infrastructure projects to create more ecent,well-paid jobs. Other countries have shown that it is possible to increase employment and living standards at the same time.”    The UK’s relatively poor performance on wage growth was highlighted by the OECD in its annual employment report this month. Because of a squeeze since the global financial crisis, real hourly wages were more than 25% below where they would have been if wage growth had continued at the rate observed during 2000-07, the thinktank found.  The Paris-based thinktank said that more widely, across its 34 member countries employment had almost recovered to pre-crisis levels but weak wage growth had blighted living standards.  The pressure on UK households from weak wage growth and insecure work has also been highlighted by the Bank of England’s chief economist.  Calling for a big package of measures to support the UK’s post-Brexit economy in a speech last month, Andy Haldane also explored why the recovery had not been felt by everyone. He concluded “the majority of UK households have faced a lost decade of income” as he noted that half of all UK households have seen no material recovery in their real disposable incomes since around 2005.  While wages in the UK have faltered, ministers have sought to instead highlight rising employment. But the TUC analysis found that although the UK employment rate had increased since the economic crisis, Germany, Hungary and Poland had increased employment rates more, while raising real wages at the same time.  Conor D’Arcy, policy analyst for the Resolution Foundation thinktank said: “The UK experienced the most prolonged pay squeeze in over a century in wake of the financial crisis, with young people feeling the biggest pay squeeze of all. While pay has started to recover in recent years – boosted by historically low inflation – post-Brexit uncertainty is expected to put this much-needed recovery on hold.   “Policies like the national living wage will boost pay for the very lowest earners but Britain will need to raise its game on productivity – and ensure those gains feed through into pay packets – if we’re to see stronger wage growth across the workforce.”

 

A more sensible article (despite it coming from the Guardian) is this one https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/16/uk-unemployment-10-year-low-wage-growth-edges-up which shows over the past 18 months wage growth running well ahead of inflation.

 

 

 

One side affect of the BREXIT vote is that, through the weakened British Pound by 10%, less people are likely to find it economically worthwhile going to the UK to work.

 

An article containing details of one of my Alma Mater's reports.......

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/brexit-vote-hits-construction-and-consumers-as-growth-flattens

 

 

Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

Brexit Vote Hits Construction and Consumers as Growth Flattens

July 28, 2016 — 12:01 AM BST   Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

 

• Household confidence plunges to lowest level in three years
• Construction growth slowed in quarter before Brexit vote

Share on FacebookShare on Twitte

U.K. consumer confidence plummeted this month to its lowest level in three years and more households believe they will be worse off as a result of the Brexit referendum result.    Two surveys suggest Britons have become more concerned since the vote to leave the European Union in June, with a sentiment index by YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research falling to 106.6, the lowest since July 2013, from 111.3. Consumers are most worried about household finances and property values, they said, a view echoed in a PricewaterhouseCoopers report that signaled a growing concern about wealth.  The latest surveys add to a litany of reports pointing to a slowdown since the Brexit vote. They come after GDP figures showed faster-than-estimated economic growth in the second quarter, which Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond hailed as demonstrating the U.K.’s “position of economic strength” as it prepares to negotiate its EU exit.  

 

PwC said that while its gauge has weakened, consumers are still more optimistic about their household financial situation than at any point between 2008 and early 2014. The findings suggest households don’t expect any slump as deep as the 2008-2009 recession, it said.   “While we do not expect consumer spending to grow as quickly as anticipated prior to the EU referendum, we do expect consumer spending to remain resilient,” PwC director Kien Tan said. “There is currently no evidence to suggest that a protracted decline in overall spending is on the cards.”

 

The Cebr offered a more gloomy outlook, saying the Brexit vote has had a “very real impact” on consumers. The Confederation of British Industry said on Wednesday that retail sales fell the most in more than four years in July.  “The sharp drop in household financial expectations over the next 12 months point to a contraction of consumer spending that could have a notable knock-on effect in retail,” said Scott Corfe, Cebr director.

 

Separately, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said construction growth cooled in the second quarter, with the commercial, industrial and housing segments all seeing a slowdown. That tallies with the GDP report, which estimates that construction shrank in both May and June.  Companies also continued to struggle with funding, with 36 percent of survey respondents saying new projects were halted by a lack of cash. 

otographer: Jason Alden/Bl

 

Ask three different economic 'experts' for their opinion and you'll get four different answers.

 

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. "

--Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet

 

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

--Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics