EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[Scribbler]

 

How would we cope if France did not give us up to 10% of our electricity already?

 

 

We would make our own, sustaining jobs and technology investment and stop lining the pockets of a few at the expense of the nation. Protectionism is the order of the day 

[lol-lol]

We would make our own, sustaining jobs and technology investment and stop lining the pockets of a few at the expense of the nation. Protectionism is the order of the day 

 

France choose to be the principal producer of  electricity by nuclear power for western Europe.   To produce more than it probably needed and to sell surplus to Britain, Belgium, Germany, Italy etc.

 

Britain could have chosen to continue to build more plants after Sizewell B but decided against it.   These plants take about a decade to build and bring on line.

 

The plan has been to build an increasingly larger and interconnected power grid system across Europe and even bring in the Middle East and North Africa.   Different countries have different peak load times, compared to GMT, so it makes economic sense to make electrical energy distribution on a worldwide scale the optimum strategy to have production and usage integrated to match surplus production to peaks in demand.      

 

France sells its power to us as does Holland, Terrawatts-hours of it.......

 

http://www.energy-uk.org.uk/energy-industry/electricity-generation.html

Imports

The UK electricity network is connected to systems in France, the Netherlands and Ireland through cables called interconnectors. The UK uses these to import or export electricity when it is most economical. In 2015, the UK was a net importer from France and the Netherlands with net imports of 13.8 TWh and 8.0 TWh respectively which accounted for 5.8 per cent of electricity supplied in 2015. Total net exports to Ireland amounted to 0.9 TWh.

Edited 29 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[jlwah]

I hard call a percentage point "well ahead of" and a large section of workers, mostly public but some private as well, have had little pay rises since 2010 and inflation was running at around 5% then when the Cons put VAT up to  20% so clawing back one percent when they fell 10 to 20% down relatively in the first part of this decade.

 

Also real inflation is not just the CPI which is the Con's con measure of inflation as it does not include housing which we do need unless we live in shoe box in middle of road. If not mortgages then there is council tax and rents which have far outstripped CPI.  

Not quite sure you understand the basics at work here. Wages rise from mid 2014 to mid 2015 by over 3% and inflation over the same period drops 2% to 0%. I don't think it is wrong to state that 3% wage rises at a time of 0% inflation is 'well ahead', but if you have another measure over the same time then please enlighten us all.

CPI generally overstates inflation, so the +3% could be +2.5% or even + 2% inflation , thereby making the the wage growth much higher.

[lol-lol]

Not quite sure you understand the basics at work here. Wages rise from mid 2014 to mid 2015 by over 3% and inflation over the same period drops 2% to 0%. I don't think it is wrong to state that 3% wage rises at a time of 0% inflation is 'well ahead', but if you have another measure over the same time then please enlighten us all.

CPI generally overstates inflation, so the +3% could be +2.5% or even + 2% inflation , thereby making the the wage growth much higher.

 

Where do you get that CPI overstates inflation? Many people would say CPI well understates inflation as they have housing costs. True inflation is running at between 1 and 2% year on year over the last couple of years, we know this from council tax and we are seeing fuel and insurance costs rising quickly and the fall in the pound is starting to feed through as well.  Wage rises in the public sector have been close 3%, my wages have risen by about 3% per year since 2010, in the private sector, but if I was still with HMRC then I would have seen 1% or less in real terms with other changes.  UK Wages, on average, have not recovered from the hike in VAT to 20% when the Cons came to power and many workers, particularly public ones, are 10-20% worse off than they were in 2010.    

 

RPI over the last 8 years is as below:-

 

Year      RPI            RPIJ  

Annual%  Index    Annual %    Index

 

2015      1.2    260.6    0.5    239.8

2014      1.6    257.5    1.0    238.6

2013      2.7    253.4    2.0    236.2

2012      3.1    246.8    2.5    231.5

2011      4.8    239.4    4.1    225.9

2010      4.8    228.4    4.1    216.9

2009      2.4    218.0    2.0    208.4 

2008      0.9    212.9    0.5    204.3

http://swanlowpark.co.uk/rpiannual.jsp

RPIJ was introduced after the Office for National Statistics found the formula used to calculate some RPI elements had overstated inflation. In March 2013 they provided revised figures going back to 1997.

Edited 30 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Lower UK interest rates,  even weaker rates of exchange.   BREXIT fallout continues to unfold............

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Bearish Pound Positions at Record High Before BOE Rate Decision

 

Speculators that are the most bearish on sterling in nearly 25 years may be vindicated by a report on Monday showing Brexit is probably hitting Britain harder than markets previously envisaged.  Sterling declined versus most of its 16 major peers as the data showed U.K. manufacturing shrank more than initially forecast in July. Hedge funds and other large speculators ran the biggest net short positions, or bets on the currency’s decline, since records began amid speculation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in more than seven years on Aug. 4 to head off the risk of recession.    The pound has fallen 11 percent against the dollar since Britain voted on June 23 to leave the European Union and posted its third consecutive monthly drop against the greenback in July.

 

Short positions outnumbered bullish wagers by 80,572 contracts last week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That’s the biggest bet that the pound will fall since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 1992.    “Brexit could still play out as the perfect storm for the pound,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in London. “Some people are bearish because it could trigger a balance of payments crisis which could see the currency depreciating sharply further on the back of portfolio outflows.”    The pound fell 0.2 percent to $1.3201 as of 4:04 p.m. in London. It dropped to a 31-year low of $1.2798 on July 6. Sterling weakened 0.2 percent to 84.65 pence per euro.

 

Rate Outlook

All but two of 51 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast BOE policy makers led by Governor Mark Carney will cut the key interest rate from a record-low 0.5 percent, where it’s been since March 2009. The median estimate in a separate survey was for the BOE to maintain its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds when it announces its latest policy decision on Aug. 4.   Britain’s vote to leave the EU, along with recent economic data that underscored the ensuing setback to consumer confidence and business activity, have boosted speculation that the BOE will ease monetary policy this month. Swaps signaled a 98 percent chance of a rate cut this week, compared with odds of around 15 percent on the day of the U.K.’s referendum.  Still, Marinov said that with such high probability priced in, the pound is vulnerable to policy disappointment, which could send it higher in the near term.

‘Zero Bound’

“The market is very, very short the pound, and it would take a very aggressive and pre-emptive BOE to convince investors to add to the already extended market positioning,” he said. “And the BOE is already close to the zero bound. Further quantitative easing may achieve little given the current levels of bond yields.”  After the BOE surprised markets in July by leaving policy on hold, officials signaled that loosening would probably come this month.  Monday’s manufacturing output report “is clearly a source of concern,” said Ned Rumpeltin, the London-based European head of foreign-exchange strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank. “It sets the stage for the Bank of England later this week, solidifying expectations of a rate cut. We continue to look for considerable downside risks for the pound from here.”

QE Forecast

Toronto Dominion predicts that the central bank will cut its official rate by 25 basis points, increase its asset-purchase program by 50 billion pounds and introduce other credit measures. It sees sterling falling to $1.20 by year-end.   U.K. government bonds fell for the first time in four days, with the benchmark 10-year gilt yield rising four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 0.73 percent. The yield dropped to a record-low 0.681 percent on July 29.   Gilts returned 2.5 percent in the past month, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes, outperforming their U.S. and euro-region peers amid speculation that the BOE will loosen monetary policy.

Edited 1 August, 2016 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Realities of the vote coming home to roost.................................................

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economy-idUKKCN10E0V1

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Bank of England set to cut rates as survey flags sharpest UK downturn since 2009

Britain's economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the financial crisis after last month's Brexit vote, making a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday a "foregone conclusion", a closely watched survey of businesses showed.

Financial data company Markit said its monthly all-sector Purchasing Managers' Index chalked up the steepest month-on-month decline on record after big falls in activity at private-sector services, manufacturing and construction firms.  "The unprecedented month-on-month drop in the all-sector index has undoubtedly increased the chances of the UK sliding into at least a mild recession," Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, said.  Wednesday's numbers - which broadly match an early version two weeks ago - pointed to Britain's economy shrinking by 0.4 percent in the three months to September, a decline not seen since early 2009 when the BoE last cut interest rates, he added.  Companies had "widely reported that the outcome of the EU referendum had weighed on new business", Markit said. Britons voted to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23.  Earlier on Wednesday, Britain's National Institute of Economic and Social Research said it expected the economy to shrink 0.2 percent between June and September and saw a 50 percent chance of recession by the end of next year.  It is unclear, however, if July's reading reflects a knee-jerk reaction to June's vote, or the start of a steeper decline. Several other surveys have shown big falls in business and consumer morale, but there has been no official data on output.  Next (NXT.L), one of Britain's biggest clothing retailers, reported a pick up in sales in its second quarter on Wednesday and said it had not so far seen a big impact on demand from the EU vote although the fall in sterling would push up its costs. That could be passed on to consumers through higher prices.

LOWER RATES LOOMING?

Almost all economists expect the BoE to reduce rates by at least a quarter percentage point to a record low 0.25 percent on Thursday, but they are more split on whether it will restart its quantitative easing programme of government bond purchases. [bOE/INT]  "It's a tempting policy to restart, but if you look at it objectively through the channels through which it operates ... there's not that much scope to do anything more," Investec economist Philip Shaw said.  NIESR said it did not expect the coming slowdown to match that seen during the global financial crisis - Britain's worst recession since at least the 1930s - and Markit said there is "substantial uncertainty about the extent of any downturn".  Similar PMIs for the euro zone showed a slight pick-up in growth.  Markit said it was too early to know if the PMIs would stay as weak as they are now, but added that confidence about the year ahead was at its lowest ebb since February 2009 among firms in the services sector, the engine of the British economy.

"A quarter-point cut in interest rates therefore seems to be a foregone conclusion ... though the extent and nature of other non-standard stimulus measures remains a far greater source of uncertainty," Williamson said.  Measures to tempt banks to lend at record-low rates, as well as possible purchases of private-sector assets such as corporate bonds, are potentially on the table alongside buying more government debt with freshly created central bank money.  The BoE's chief economist has said he is willing to use "a sledgehammer to crack a nut" in tackling weak growth, but others may prefer to wait for more data and see if the government unveils an autumn package of extra spending or tax cuts.  July's PMI for the services sector was unchanged from the 'flash' estimate of 47.4 released on July 22, down from 52.3 in June and the lowest since March 2009.  The all-sector PMI was slightly weaker than first estimated, at 47.3 -- the lowest since April 2009 -- due to a poor showing for Tuesday's construction PMI. The fall from 51.9 in June was the biggest since the survey started in 1998.

Edited 3 August, 2016 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

Brexit: The Battle For Britain. BBC2 21:00 8/8/2016

 

Might be bst on iPlayer now.........

[lol-lol]

Odds on when Article 50 going to be triggered.....

 

Looks like betting agencies are offering poor odds on never and high odds on slices of later this year and next.

 

We know UK government speak with fork tongue and betting agencies offering these high odds that it is unlikely to be before 2018 (so next government would have to deal with- get out clause).

 

All odds in single figure are to ":1"

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/article-50

 

 

      2018 or later or not at all   11/8                                                  

January 1 to March 31 2017   11/4                                                  

April 1 to June 30 2017   7/2                                                  

July 1 to September 30 2017   6                                                  

October 1 to December 31 2017   8                                                  

October 1 to December 31 2016   9                                                  

July 1 to September 30 2016   33                                                      

Edited 9 August, 2016 by lol-lol

[KenONeill]

Actually, it occurs to me that, technically, since Scamoron resigned and and May replaced him, the present government is not actually bound by his "promise" to observe the result of the referendum, never mind to do so in any specific timescale.

[theezenutz]

It would be political suicide to ignore the British People the only way they would get away with it is by scaremongering the Public to such an extent that they would be willing to forget the result. Either way it wouldn't show a very favourable side to politics, after all we are led to believe that they represent the interest of the electorate so we shall see.

[Ootohere]

The UK Government needs to take advantage of as long as they can while still in the Eu and stuff is going on around the EU that worries them.

 

Then with NATO and Defence Contracts etc that the UK can not actually afford like building Ships & Subs and the Trident replacement all needs reviewed because it looks like some dodgy dealing has been going on in the past....

Some being an understatement.

 

Then the UK needs to spend within on Homeland Security and Policing before the Nasty Party really start to turn the screws on Unions, 

and hard working families and individuals to have the income to overturn generations of schemes that New Labour and the Conservatives of old spend a fortune on starting to set up.

[lol-lol]

It would be political suicide to ignore the British People the only way they would get away with it is by scaremongering the Public to such an extent that they would be willing to forget the result. Either way it wouldn't show a very favourable side to politics, after all we are led to believe that they represent the interest of the electorate so we shall see.

 

Yes but it will be like an episode of Yes Minsiter/Prime Minister.   How to boot Article 50 in to the long grass until it is overtaken by events ie an new election or different EU etc.   

[cheezemonkhai]

Just because all of the doom and gloom that's been on this thread:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37016123

 

So we're not dead.

[@Lee]

Retail sales usually go up in summer anyway; boosted by tourism, school holidays, visitors to the UK (whilst the EU visitors still don't need a visa) and the annual influx of Saudis to Mayfair

 

Not allll rosy either according to Barclaycard.

 

 

A monthly report by Barclaycard, which processes nearly half of all the nation's credit and debit card transactions, found that consumer spending growth fell to 2.6% in July, down from 3.6% in May and June.

But the warmer weather may have played a part in a 12.2% increase in spending in pubs and a 12.8% rise in what card-holders spent in restaurants, it said.

There were some less positive results in the company's consumer confidence research, which found that Britons were more cautious about their future spending plans, with nearly 50% not confident in their ability to spend more on non-essential items.

[lol-lol]

Retail sales may well stay reasonably high as things in the shops become more expensive due to the higher import costs.

 

I have noticed the tyres I order have jumped up in price 10% over the past few weeks and that 4k TV I wanted ion the good deal has suddenly come off offer and I have to pay 10% more for it if I want to buy it.

 

I think it is only when we see inflation figures due out next week that we will know.  Inflation, CPI and RPI are up about half a percent and one percent respectively over the last year and most things point to it climbing steadily higher so yes you get more retails sales in no small part due to things being more expensive. 

[moley]

 

I have noticed the tyres I order have jumped up in price 10% over the past few weeks 

Shop around, the Continentals i bought back in February are still the same price at the tyre place i use. 

[lol-lol]

Shop around, the Continentals i bought back in February are still the same price at the tyre place i use. 

 

I tend to use Tyreleader most the time and some times Oponeo which I tend to find 10 to 20% cheaper than the UK ones such as Black-circle, Camskill etc.

 

In saying that I have just ordered a pair of Avon ZV7s for £40 delivered.  205/55-16.  V rated speed. A rated wet weather.

 

Not sure if they were made in the UK ie Melksham or the Serbian plant but I great price for a pretty good tyre.  Hope it is the British made one but crazy the tyres geet shipped to Germany and then come back to the UK.

 

Avon/Coopers evaluating the BREXIT as to whether to move more production from UK to Serbia as they will not want to pay the 4.5% customs duty on tyres as well as UK labour costs.

http://www.european-rubber-journal.com/2016/08/09/draft-cooper-monitoring-impact-brexit-uk-plant/

[Ootohere]

So the UK Voters (& various others around the world) that bothered to vote had a majority for BREXIT.

 

That was clear what BREXIT was,  'The UK to leave the EU'. 

There was enough debate, discussion and argument on what it could mean,there were lots of lies, lies and more lies even.

 

So now the Conservative and Unionist Party of the United Kingdom think it is time to muddy the waters,

start some spin campaign on 'What does BREXIT really mean?' 

What really is BREXIT.

*Well what is your hurry? here is your hat, now do one, sling your hook, offski, you are on your own! is what it means.*

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-37023488

http://bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36970535

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-37024707

 

What a shower of lying cheating money grabbing dishonest politicians.

So just the usual there then!

 

?

Has that pathetic & usless ex Prime Minister David Cameron MP thought about resigning as a MP yet and allowing someone else to get on the Gravy Train.?

Has he not lined up a nice few Directorships and sidelines while he slobs around, or is he now Johnny no mates?

One of the first Ex Prime ministers that will not become even wealthier out of office as when they were in!

 

I bet George Osborne MP made sure that there are Banks ready to employ his services and show their gratitude.

Edited 10 August, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[gadgetman]

All just project fear & lies George. Boris et al said so

[Ootohere]

?

What has he said now that

'This in now Project Fear that the UK will not leave the EU'. ?

 

I thought they all said uncertainty was bad for the markets bad for the businesses.

Are they just unsure of what to do or not even that actually certain?

 

Some are going to have to wake up and smell the coffee.

The Imported Fair & not Fair Trade Coffee that is.

Edited 10 August, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[lol-lol]

The BREXIT affects starting to come through...........

 

Brexit Bites Back as Peugeot Joins Dell in Lifting Prices

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/brexit-bites-back-as-peugeot-joins-dell-in-lifting-prices

 

 

• Weak pound raises cost of imported cars, carpets, computers
• After deflation fears, signs of inflation follow EU vote

 

British consumers are starting to bear the costs of Brexit, with companies raising prices of everything from cars to carpets to counter a plunge in the pound caused by the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.French carmaker PSA Group lifted prices of its Peugeot, Citroen and DS vehicles by an average of 2 percent on Aug. 1, a spokeswoman said Tuesday. The increases make up for part of the pound’s 10 percent drop against the euro and its 13 percent fall versus the dollar since the June 23 referendum.

“We took a reasoned measure given the currency fluctuations,” the spokeswoman said, confirming an earlier report that its Peugeot 308 hatchback rose by 2.8 percent, or 435 pounds ($565).

 

While some companies have stood firm on prices, worried about losing market share in competitive U.K. businesses like groceries, others are moving quickly to pass along the effects of the weaker pound. The increases underline forecasts for an uptick in inflation after the country flirted with deflation last year.    Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank Europe Plc, said it was “unusual” for companies to blame the Brexit referendum for cost increases they passed along so quickly. Typically there’s a six- to nine-month lag between big moves in exchange rates and shifts in consumer prices, he said.  

 

‘Opportunistic Companies’

“I think you’ll have some opportunistic companies,” he said. “Whether people actually buy those products or they get discounted at sale time, we’ll have to wait and see.”   Some industries, like tourism, are more sensitive to exchange rates than others, like electronics. While British travelers hitting the beaches of Spain or Italy need to convert pounds to euros, pricing of consumer gadgets is more complicated. In the economic recovery that followed the 2009-10 downturn in the U.K., the pound rose along with prices of devices like portable music players because of increased demand, Clarke said.   Since the referendum, PC maker Asustek Computer Inc. has said it plans to raise U.K. prices by 9 percent in October, while Dell Inc. said in a statement that the weak pound “will have a direct impact on the price we sell some of our products to our U.K. enterprise customers.”   Smartphone provider OnePlus has lifted the price of its flagship phone to 329 pounds from 309 pounds. HTC Corp. marked up its Vive virtual reality headset by 70 pounds, to 759 pounds, from Aug. 1.

 

Headlam Group Plc, a U.K. distributor of floor coverings, has said it will raise prices, while U.S.-based carpet provider Mohawk Industries Inc. said in an earnings call that it plans to adjust its European pricing “relative to where the pound has been.” Svenska Cellulosa AB, the maker of Velvet tissues and Cushelle toilet paper, has said it’s considering increases for diapers, liners and incontinence pads.   The fall in the pound is one of several factors that could lift consumers’ bills. Depending on the outcome of the U.K.’s negotiations to leave the EU, the country might reimpose tariffs on imported goods. U.K. employers also face increases in the minimum wage.    U.K. consumer prices climbed an annual 0.5 percent in June. The Bank of England forecasts that inflation will accelerate through this year and next, hitting its 2 percent target at the end of 2017. The last time it was at that level was in December 2013.

 

Grocers Compete
 

Fierce competition among supermarkets has kept food bills in check in recent years. Grocer Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc, which competes with bigger chains like Tesco Plc and J Sainsbury Plc as well as discounters such as Aldi and Lidl, last week said it was cutting prices of 1,045 items by an average of 18 percent.   But the average cost of a weekly trip to the supermarket rose 1 percent in July, according to price-comparison website mysupermarket.co.uk. Pasta was up 10 percent.   Companies that manufacture or source many of their goods in the U.K. are insulated from the pound’s decline. That helps carmakers like Nissan Motor Co., which has a plant in Sunderland, England, that also supplies other European markets. 

U.K. auto sales fell in June and grew only 0.1 percent in July as uncertainty over Brexit mounted. Parts provider Continental AG expects U.K. sales to fall in the second half of the year, but it raised prices in the U.K. on Aug. 1 because of the decline in the pound, Chief Financial Officer Wolfgang Schaefer said last week.    PSA imports all the vehicles it sells in the U.K., where it had an 8.5 percent market share last year. Several other European carmakers, including Peugeot’s French rival Renault SA, have said they have no plans to lift prices at this stage.  Ian Fletcher, a London-based analyst at IHS Automotive, said “it is pretty much inevitable” that others will follow PSA.  “The U.K. is a very important market for European auto makers,” he said in a phone interview. “We’re going to see pressure passed on to consumers,” because companies are not prepared to cut their profit margins.

 

Sign up to receive the Brexit Bulletin, a daily briefing on the biggest news related to Britain's departure from the EU.

Edited 10 August, 2016 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

Pull the other one. It's got bells on it.

[lol-lol]

Great that Renault (and their great value sub-brand Dacia) are not looking at raising prices yet so good new for value motoring in the UK and whist PSA have a great engine in their 3 cylinder 1.2 petrol, winner in International Engine of the year in its category, I cannot think of a of PSA I want and especially now they stopped the RCZ.

 

Article above quotes woes at Continental, not surprised, product is not great and expensive for what it is.  Have bought Barums before ie the Conti sub brand made in CZ, pretty good and up to half the price. Just had a couple of Avon ZV7s arrive.  205/55R16, V rated, A rated wet performance, just over £40 delivered for Tyreleader.  Thought I would check where they were made and it is Serbia !  Thought it might have been made in Wiltshire but sadly not.

 

To compete it looks like the UK will need to strike a FTA like Serbia has with the EEA/EU but also to complete we will need low wages which I gather is a couple of pound an hour in Serbia but once we are released from EU law we can employee workers at a couple pound and hour and foreign workers will not want to come here.

 

Immigration problem solved, business successful with ultra low worker pay rates, job done. 

Edited 11 August, 2016 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/the-brexit-hangover-just-got-worse

[lol-lol]

http://www.aol.co.uk/news/2016/08/12/postbrexit-funding-gap-for-key-eubacked-projects-set-to-cost-45bn-a-year-1/

 

Post-Brexit funding gap for key EU-backed projects set to cost £4.5bn a year

 

British taxpayers will pay around £4.5 billion a year to plug the post-Brexit funding gap for key European Union-backed projects that support scientists, farmers and infrastructure, the Chancellor will announce.   Philip Hammond will guarantee Government funding for projects backed by the EU structural and investment fund, including agri-environment schemes, which are signed off before this year's Autumn Statement.  The Treasury will assess whether other similar projects that are signed after the mini Budget - expected in November or December - should also get a guarantee, in a bid to reassure UK organisations.  And if organisations bid directly to the European Commission on a competitive basis, such as universities seeking Horizon 2020 research funding, the Treasury will underwrite the payments even if the projects continue after Brexit.  On Saturday, Mr Hammond will also promise that the current level of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) pillar one funding for farmers will be matched by the UK after it comes out of the EU until 2020, as a domestic system is put in place.   Ahead of the announcement, Mr Hammond said: "The UK will continue to have all of the rights, obligations and benefits that membership brings, including receiving European funding, up until the point we leave the EU."We recognise that many organisations across the UK which are in receipt of EU funding, or expect to start receiving funding, want reassurance about the flow of funding they will receive.  "That's why I am confirming that structural and investment funds projects signed before the Autumn Statement and Horizon research funding granted before we leave the EU will be guaranteed by the Treasury after we leave.  "The Government will also match the current level of agricultural funding until 2020, providing certainty to our agricultural community, who play a vital role in our country.  "We are determined to ensure that people have stability and certainty in the period leading up to our departure from the EU and that we use the opportunities that departure presents to determine our own priorities."   Asked how much he expected the move to cost, Mr Hammond said: "Well, it will depend on when we leave the EU and it will depend on the level of applications for these structural and investment funds and for the research funds Horizon, but around probably, around about £4.5 billion a year would be the level we would expect."  The structural and investment funds that will be guaranteed include CAP pillar two, the European Social Fund, the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund and the European Regional Development Fund, including European Territorial Cooperation.  Examples of projects that have received or are due to receive regional development fund money include:

• :: £5 million for the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre at the University of Manchester.
• :: £9 million for the manufacturing growth programme to support areas in the Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber and the East of England.
• :: £3 million for a new life sciences incubation and innovation centre at Porton Down in Wiltshire.

 

Chief Secretary to the Treasury David Gauke has also written to the devolved administrations to confirm the same level of assurances offered to UK Government departments in relation to programmes they administer but for which they are expected to rely on EU funding.  Brexit Secretary David Davis said: "This announcement shows that the Government is ensuring that those people and organisations currently supported by EU funding can continue to benefit from a measure of continuity. This will offer reassurance to them, and help ease the transition to our new relationship with the EU."  Business and Energy Secretary Greg Clark said: "By underwriting the significant Horizon 2020 grants we are showing the extent of our commitment, standing squarely behind our researchers and scientists as they continue working with their European partners to develop new technologies, discover life-saving medicines and pioneer everyday innovations that will benefit all hard-working Britons."   Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green said: "The fund supports hundreds of initiatives across England like the Ways to Work programme in Liverpool, which is helping disadvantaged people in the area to gain new skills and turn their lives around for the better. With this decision, providers can plan with certainty and help more people gain the security and dignity of work."  Local Government Secretary Sajid Javid said: "Local Enterprise Partnerships are a vital part of our efforts to rebalance the economy, and have helped create thousands of jobs over the past five years.  "Guaranteeing EU funding will further support this work by enabling them to plan ahead with certainty so businesses, universities and local authorities across the country can enable economic growth."

Edited 13 August, 2016 by lol-lol