EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[gadgetman]

If the EU wasn't trying to become a federal state, I think we would have been strongly in.

And no not the Norway model, because the only rules would be rules on trade, not on everything else.

Which all 27 members have said isn't happening.

Even if some did support it, Germany, France etc can veto any deal the EU comes up with making them rethink.

Anyone who thinks we'll leave with the same terms, just without any legal or migration obligations is off their head. Because if we get that deal, every member will have their far right parties demanding the same & the EU will cease to exist.

[gadgetman]

Referendum was only a gauge of public opinion. UK Parliament does any actioning and it is becoming increasingly clear that the divorce is so complex it will take many years if not a decade or more so happy days and years ahead to continue as is.

The people won't wear it was advisory.

But once negotiations start, they'll wish it had been. Which is why politicians are dithering over invoking Article 50. As there is no turning back if we don't like the deal. We would be out.

[cheezemonkhai]

Farage is a tit and hopefully will fade into obscurity now he's got his way.

 

He does seem like one of those psychopathic murderers you see on crime thrillers.

Picked on as a teenager, he plots and plans for years then goes on a murdering rage to prove a point to the nasty person, before killing them.

 

So with that in mind, if he could put Junkers head on a pole, then somebody could do the same to him, we can let them keep his head in the EU as a warning and we're all happy.

[Ootohere]

There is a name for the Conservatives & Unionists Actions since Friday.   'The Victoria Principal.'  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 They are hoping they will wake up and it was just a dream & Bobby Ewing is having a shower.

[Aspman]

There is a name for the Conservatives & Unionists Actions since Friday.   'The Victoria Principal.'  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 They are hoping they will wake up and it was just a dream & Bobby Ewing is having a shower.

 

Someone has tweaked a Seinfeld clip to that effect.

 

[jlwah]

As you say, nobody knows for sure what the longterm outcome will be. But I can't help reading yours and a few others' posts as sending the message: "You Remain voters are all wrong, now shut the F up". So you do seem to know something that I don't.

I think you are reading things in to posts from a defeatist perspective that simply aren't there.

 

I have no problem Remainer's expressing their views, but when they try to draw on a few days roller coaster ride on the stock market as evidence that they were right all along, I feel it's only right to point out that insufficient time has elapsed to draw ANY conclusion on success or failure.

 

The voters have been exposed to outrageous claims from both sides in the run up to the referendum and the interests of the UK are now best served by both sides working for the best possible outcome in the negotiations for leaving the UK, not sulking and willing the UK to fail.

 

Personally I think the longer term outlook for the UK is best served outside the EU and I had a variety of reasons for putting my X in the Leave box, but I did so in the knowledge that it would result in some short term uncertainty with the corresponding swings in the financial markets and some political instability (both main political parties were split on the issue).

I believe it's a small price to pay for longer term success and I suspect it won't be too long before other EU countries decide they've had enough of the lack of democracy and accountability that is the EU way and join us on the 'outside'.

[@Lee]

Someone has tweaked a Seinfeld clip to that effect.

 

with sub titles

 

http://imgur.com/gallery/dhwPLtv

[lol-lol]

The people won't wear it was advisory.

But once negotiations start, they'll wish it had been. Which is why politicians are dithering over invoking Article 50. As there is no turning back if we don't like the deal. We would be out.

 

Dithering is not big enough word.

 

Politician are usually good at prevarication but the BREXIT gives them opportunities to take it to new levels.  The reasons, now they start to realise the details of the process are as follows:-

 

1. EU expresses no compulsion to start taking about post-BREXIT trade terms until article 50 invoked.
2. Even when article 50 invoked the discussion are to be about the details of the leave not a new FTA.
3. New FTAs, with their usual clauses of both trade and services details, take on average 4 to 9 years to set up hence there would be a period of World Trade Organisation Most Favoured Nation duty rates in that period ie 10% for cars etc in to Europe.

 

In this time scale their will be new parliamentary elections are therefore all manner of consequences ie rerun after public seeing UK dip back in to recession, inflation above 2% due to the currency weakness and therefore probably a different result.

 

(Just checked my pension which I biased toward international bond and made another grand since yesterday and the 1500 quid on the weekend.  In times of uncertainly definately better to be in safer assets than equity and to hedge the UK financial drop).  

[@Lee]

John Oliver - Brexit Aftermath 
 
NSFW

 

[lol-lol]

Fantastic video.   Most of the world is looking on at the UK and think OMG how could they do this to themselves. 

[theezenutz]

I still don't understand it way very few people are still talking about it everyone has just gone back to their day to day business, I swear that if you turn off the news/radio and put down the paper you wouldn't even know the World has ended.

 

On another note congratulations to Iceland for their performance last night perhaps we can learn more than just Football from them guys as they are not a member of the EU, and they seem to be doing pretty well.

Edited 28 June, 2016 by theezenutz

[mender]

Which all 27 members have said isn't happening.

Even if some did support it, Germany, France etc can veto any deal the EU comes up with making them rethink.

Anyone who thinks we'll leave with the same terms, just without any legal or migration obligations is off their head. Because if we get that deal, every member will have their far right parties demanding the same & the EU will cease to exist.

Anyone with any sense could forecast this as correct

 

...and I get flamed when saying Leave voters did not think it through

[gadgetman]

I think you are reading things in to posts from a defeatist perspective that simply aren't there.

I have no problem Remainer's expressing their views, but when they try to draw on a few days roller coaster ride on the stock market as evidence that they were right all along, I feel it's only right to point out that insufficient time has elapsed to draw ANY conclusion on success or failure.

It will really go to the wall when article 50 invoked. Until then it's just jitters

[gadgetman]

I still don't understand it way very few people are still talking about it everyone has just gone back to their day to day business, I swear that if you turn off the news/radio and put down the paper you wouldn't even know the World has ended.

On another note congratulations to Iceland for their performance last night perhaps we can learn more than just Football from them guys as they are not a member of the EU, and they seem to be doing pretty well.

Besides Labour imploding, nothing has happened yet.

Once it does everyone will be talking about it again, don't worry

[swedishskoda]

Wise words from Guy Verhofstadt to Mr. Farage MEP in the European Parliament today:

" “OK, let’s be positive, we are getting rid of the biggest waste of EU budget: your salary."

Edited 28 June, 2016 by swedishskoda

[moley]

Every cloud has a silver lining: Jamie Oliver has threatened to leave Britain if Boris becomes Prime Minister.

[Aspman]

Every cloud has a silver lining: Jamie Oliver has threatened to leave Britain if Boris becomes Prime Minister.

 

I'm feeling torn now, Keep Jamie Oliver or have Boris as PM, rock and a hard place.

[swedishskoda]

A (OK, outdated - or?) comment from your future negotiation counterpart, Germany:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Y89dfR8v8

 

The part 01:58 - 02:05 seems to have a bit of actuality (for some)

Edited 28 June, 2016 by swedishskoda

[swedishskoda]

I think you are reading things in to posts from a defeatist perspective that simply aren't there.

 

I have no problem Remainer's expressing their views, but when they try to draw on a few days roller coaster ride on the stock market as evidence that they were right all along, I feel it's only right to point out that insufficient time has elapsed to draw ANY conclusion on success or failure.

 

The voters have been exposed to outrageous claims from both sides in the run up to the referendum and the interests of the UK are now best served by both sides working for the best possible outcome in the negotiations for leaving the UK, not sulking and willing the UK to fail.

 

Personally I think the longer term outlook for the UK is best served outside the EU and I had a variety of reasons for putting my X in the Leave box, but I did so in the knowledge that it would result in some short term uncertainty with the corresponding swings in the financial markets and some political instability (both main political parties were split on the issue).

I believe it's a small price to pay for longer term success and I suspect it won't be too long before other EU countries decide they've had enough of the lack of democracy and accountability that is the EU way and join us on the 'outside'.

 

Desillusioned and worried, yes. Bu defeatist? No. Not yet.

 

It might be, as you say, that "the longer term outlook for the UK is best served outside the EU". Tough luck, though, for those who'll have to bear the short term consequences.

 

I still wonder, however, how you reached that conclusion, and I also wonder a little about the "variety of reasons" you had for putting your X in the Leave box. You obviously saw through not only the unsubstantiated warnings from the Remain camp, but also the "350 million pounds a week", as well as "take back control of immigration" and other dubious promises from the Leave side. What you hope for must be something more solid?

Edited 28 June, 2016 by swedishskoda

[@Lee]

A (OK, outdated - or?) comment from your future negotiation counterpart, Germany:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Y89dfR8v8I think you need to understand how dry German humour can be to find that funny.

 

The part 01:58 - 02:05 seem to have a bit of actuality (for some)

I think you need to understand how dry German humour can be to find that funny. Fortunately I do

[Ootohere]

Vladimir Putin is just a little bit quiet for now. 

But that will not last surely.      First he just needs to let the UK & the EU have a bit of infighting, wait for the Americans to chose their 

next joker and he will be into winter time and he can start playing the Oil & Gas pipelines and on /off as suits him.

[cheezemonkhai]

I still don't understand it way very few people are still talking about it everyone has just gone back to their day to day business, I swear that if you turn off the news/radio and put down the paper you wouldn't even know the World has ended.

 

That is the British way, was fairly similar after 7/7 too

[SkodaVRS1963]

Until I read the posts here (and other forums) I never realised how little belief there was in the UK from its own citizens.

 

What happened to the "Great Britain" I keep reading about (with emphasis on "Great")?

 

If we, as a nation, are game enough to stand up and say "we can't make it in the grown up world without the EU nanny to hold our hand and put a plaster on our knee when we fall off of our bicycle" then just man up and say it?

 

And that's fine; but don't ever let me see a puffed out chest proclaiming how great we are again.

Edited 28 June, 2016 by SkodaVRS1963

[@Lee]

Vladimir Putin is just a little bit quiet for now. 

But that will not last surely.      First he just needs to let the UK & the EU have a bit of infighting, wait for the Americans to chose their 

next joker and he will be into winter time and he can start playing the Oil & Gas pipelines and on /off as suits him.

I think Vlad's off camping at Brokeback mountain lol

 

[@Lee]

That is the British way, was fairly similar after 7/7 too

stick your heads in the sand and pretend it's not happening you mean?