EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[lol-lol]

In VW case, although they make some market specific vehicles in the US (their Jetta, MPV & SUV), most (some Beetle models, Golf, Passat) are still made in Germany/Europe. Iirc all parts and engines all come from Germany/Europe even for the US & Mexico factory built stuff.

Audi & Porsche for the US market are only made in Germany

And VAG isn't particularly popular in the US right now.....

Which is surprising production is being cut with VW sales still increasing, and most UK factory orders already 16-24 weeks. It's these long builds which are hurting VW/VAG here currently as people don't want to wait that long when other makes are 8-12 weeks. Dad's Kia, factory built in Seoul was 6 weeks including the 3 weeks shipping!

 

Mexico will be crying as they made the VWs for the US and even the Beetles of Europe.

[gadgetman]

Mexico will be crying as they made the VWs for the US and even the Beetles of Europe.

I thought the EU beetles were still made in Germany?

[lol-lol]

I thought the EU beetles were still made in Germany?

 

Puebla I think, just south of Mexico city.

 

In a moment of madness was going to factory order one but it was going to take 5 months to biuld and send over, sod that.  

[cheezemonkhai]

My post was sarcastic.

They are in dispute with some of their part manufacturers.

It will pass

[lol-lol]

Well after a difficult month for imports a small crumb of relief where the UK Customs exchange rate ticked up from 1.3178 to 1.325 ie only half a percent but welcome.

 

On the other side the Euro further strengthened ie 1.6%, against the British pound so we will work with the rate with 1.1779 instead of 1.197 we had in August.

 

Giving a talk to industry and custom next week and it will be interesting what issues will come up though some importers might want to keep issues private but at least us in the International Logistics Community can offer some solutions ie use our bonded warehouses, transit sheds and deferment arrangements. 

[cheezemonkhai]

Oh, look, the pound was up 1% against the dollar and 0.6% against the euro.

Oh and business confidence was up with the pm index at about 53 from 48 last month.

Yep it's all going wrong or not.

[trundlenut]

Oh, look, the pound was up 1% against the dollar and 0.6% against the euro.

Oh and business confidence was up with the pm index at about 53 from 48 last month.

Yep it's all going wrong or not.

Obviously a direct result of the government determining what Brexit means (Brexit) and Boris finding a folder to cuddle. With this sort of meteoric progress we'll be in the sunny uplands of Boris' brave new world in no time.

[cheezemonkhai]

Or proof that we're not doomed.

That sort of rise in currency in one day is pretty spectacular to be honest.

Nobody said Brexit causes all good things, just that it isn't causing the world to end.

[Ootohere]

How many billions are the Bank of England putting out to have the economy where it is now before anything has yet happened to get towards BREXIT, and that will be the general public's money.

 

Lets see just what the Pound does against the Euro and Dollar once the government does get their backside into action.

Lets see what new cars are going to cost that are imported into the UK in 2017.

[cheezemonkhai]

Right, pumping in cash and dropping interest rates causes the pound to fall.

The point is unlike George Osborne predicted and ranted, the world isn't over.

What with Junker banging on about borders being the worst thing that ever happened, we may look back on this as a lucky escape.

[trundlenut]

Right, pumping in cash and dropping interest rates causes the pound to fall.

The point is unlike George Osborne predicted and ranted, the world isn't over.

What with Junker banging on about borders being the worst thing that ever happened, we may look back on this as a lucky escape.

But nothing has changed yet. The government have got as far as "Brexit means Brexit", that's it. We are months away from knowing what might happen and years from it actually happening.

[moley]

Lets see what new cars are going to cost that are imported into the UK in 2017.

With about 85% of imported cars sold in the UK coming from Europe, it will be a problem for Europe if UK car sales fall due to higher prices. On the other hand exports of UK built cars could increase.

[lol-lol]

Oh, look, the pound was up 1% against the dollar and 0.6% against the euro.

Oh and business confidence was up with the pm index at about 53 from 48 last month.

Yep it's all going wrong or not.

 

A 1% move upward still takes us 10% down on where the British pound was pre-BREXIT vote and the Euro has continued to strengthen against GBP so that is 10% different from pre-BREXIT rate.

 

Some companies did not have enough money in their customs account and had to be assisted.

 

PM index means nothing, it is purely a sentiment survey, current cost of imports and projections for inflations are far more important for the man in the street.

 

I would reckon several UK companies will not survive the new exchange rate environment and we can see that foreign capital is buying British companies at a record rate as they are so cheap now. 

 

A few companies, who do not have to import to make their exports, should profit but for UK citizens they will only do well if there wages keep up with the inflation that is now feed through which is unlikely in most cases.

[Ootohere]

Vauxhall and others have issues coming with sales in the UK anyway in 2017 on.

Already many disabled people have had to return cars early that they had on a 3 year lease.

 

Motability Finance is the biggest Fleet / Group buyer and owner of vehicles to lease in the UK.

UK Government changes mean many have lost the benefit that allow them to qualify to lease cars through Motability.

 

So the Golden Goose is being culled.  Years of abuse have been going on but not only with disabled claimants, 

but in the Main Dealerships.

All these new cars bought by Motability Finance and leased and then sold at Auction and into the Used Car Market, 

ie Motor Supermarkets and Dealerships are going to be getting many thousands less.

 

(People coming off the scheme have been getting £2,000 to help them, and that has had some with very nice cars being handed back going and buying used cars or using that to put down a deposit and lease a nice cheap Kia or what other car does the job of providing transport and costs less to lease than what they were paying to Motability.

 

So benefit changes in the UK & the introduction of PIP means Main Dealerships are not going to be flogging so many nice expensive cars to Disabled people or families with disabled members.

That is going to hit manufacturers sales in the UK, the likes of Fiat, Vauxhall, Skoda, VW and others that were shifting lots of cars

that if not bought by Motability to lease would be poor sellers.

[Ootohere]

PS

After BREXIT, the actual UK leaving the EU and the Pound against the Euro / Dollar becomes a more stable currency and the UK desides what Import & Export tariffs it will impose then New Cars in the UK might be priced properly and the UK buyer might get fair pricing.

 

Also the Finance Pyramid of Leasing Dealers and false residuals that major European Manufacturers rely on might be a thing of the past.

Used cars out of warranty might be very much cheaper, and new cars might have to offer value for money and reliability 

if people are back buying cars and keeping them for longer rather than just Leasing Expensive cars for 2 or 3 years then them getting handed back.  

It all depends how the UK goes on Taxation, pollution reduction in the UK after BREXIT, Business users and vehicles needed for commerce.

Maybe Lifestyle Vehicles leased as essential requirements for a Company might get taxed accordingly if they are actually not essential 

and just a prestige vehicle as a perk for an employee.

[cheezemonkhai]

People keep saying we are down 10%, and that the 1% is the drop in the ocean.

If you listen to the commentators, many say the GBP was probably overvalued anyway, the value before the vote had massively inflated anyway.

Then if you listen to why we have the 1% jump, you find out it's because people are seeing stronger financial data in the UK, including actually exporting more.

So to me, it's saying we've gone up, because the fundamentals are better.

So what if we're 10% down on where we were before the day of brexit, if it means we actually start running a trade surplus at some point rather than a deficit, it's ok.

[io1901]

A 1% move upward still takes us 10% down on where the British pound was pre-BREXIT vote and the Euro has continued to strengthen against GBP so that is 10% different from pre-BREXIT rate.

 

Some companies did not have enough money in their customs account and had to be assisted.

 

PM index means nothing, it is purely a sentiment survey, current cost of imports and projections for inflations are far more important for the man in the street.

 

I would reckon several UK companies will not survive the new exchange rate environment and we can see that foreign capital is buying British companies at a record rate as they are so cheap now. 

 

A few companies, who do not have to import to make their exports, should profit but for UK citizens they will only do well if there wages keep up with the inflation that is now feed through which is unlikely in most cases.

 

 

Your posts are all very negative - the rate drop is very good for UK exporters even if they have to import raw materials .

[Ootohere]

Very good now because there was a referendum and the vote was for BREXIT, then there was the summer holidays.

 

Hopefully all will be shiny and bright once Article 50 is actually called, and then in the 2 years after, then eventually BREXIT is in force.

 

As Boris said today, 'We' are leaving the EU not leaving Europe!

[Ootohere]

100 Billion pound that the Bank of England have created from nowhere to lend to banks at 0.25% according to the BBC news story with Radio 4 Money Box presenter Paul Lewis.

 

It really is all about kidology & smoke and mirrors as savers get next to nothing for money they have in banks.

 

Lets see what comes out in the wash because the UK looks like it could be 1 months pay check away from losing its home.

(like they say hard working families are.)

Countries will keep lending to the UK though because they need the UK buying imports.

[lol-lol]

Your posts are all very negative - the rate drop is very good for UK exporters even if they have to import raw materials .

 

The UK imports about half as much as it exports.  The UK relies on financial services to make up much of the gap.

 

We know, and I work for one of the top ten international logistics companies, that imports went up in value in July and August due to the British pound being 10% weaker than the US dollar.  Complete stats out in a week.     

 

We would need to competely rejig our economy using lower labour costs etc.  Brexit may be good for a few companies but will be bad for the vast majority of UK citizens ie inflation without wage rises etc.

 

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2016

1.Main points for June 2016

UK trade shows import and export activity and is a main contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. All data are shown on a seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis, at current prices unless otherwise stated.  The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £5.1 billion in June 2016, a widening of £0.9 billion from May 2016. Exports increased by £1.0 billion and imports increased by £1.9 billion. Imports reached a record high of £48.9 billion.  The deficit on trade in goods was £12.4 billion in June 2016, widening by £0.9 billion from May 2016. This widening reflected an increase in exports of £1.0 billion to £24.6 billion and an increase in imports of £1.8 billion to £37.0 billion.

[gadgetman]

Heard on 5live earlier that next week the BBC us running programmes to look at what has really changed since the vote, and what realistically can be delivered against what was promised Brexit actually meant.

[moley]

Heard on 5live earlier that next week the BBC us running programmes to look at what has really changed since the vote, and what realistically can be delivered against what was promised Brexit actually meant.

Hopefully a completely unbiased view of things. More likely to be lots of if's and buts and maybe, just like the referendum campaigns. At least with the BBC there won't be any scaremongering......ok, there will be.

[gadgetman]

I'm sure there'll be more from others at some point.

I think there's going to be a lot of anger when we find out what we're actually going for. Let alone what we actually end up with.

No wonder Boris was looking a bit faint sat next to the prime minister at chequers the other day

[lol-lol]

"PREPARE FOR TOUGH TIMES"  states Theresa May on post BREXIT UK economics.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-04/may-sees-difficult-times-ahead-for-u-k-economy-post-brexit

 

May Sees ‘Difficult Times Ahead’ for U.K. Economy Post-Brexit

 

Prime Minister Theresa May warned there were “difficult times ahead” for the U.K. economy in the wake of the country’s vote to leave the European Union.  May was speaking as she traveled to the Group of 20 summit in Hangzhou, China, where she’ll make the case that Britain can be a champion of free trade, while warning of the risk of anti-globalization sentiment from those who see themselves hurt by the lowering of barriers.  “I won’t pretend it’s all going to be plain sailing,” she told reporters on board her plane, when asked about the economy. “There will be some difficult times ahead.”  May said different pieces of data had sent “different messages” about how the economy was responding to the Brexit outcome, but that businesses she had spoken to had told her “let’s get on with it, let’s make a success of it.”  She said she saw a role for Britain as a global champion of free trade, but added the poorest in society needed to be protected. “We can’t ignore the fact that there’s sentiment out there which is anti-globalization,” she said. “We need to consider how, when we put these free trade arrangements in place, they’re actually going to benefit everybody.”  May is due to hold one-to-one talks with Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi from India, but her toughest conversation is likely to be with Chinese President Xi Jinping. She said she’s still making up her mind about whether to let the Chinese-backed Hinkley Point nuclear power station proceed.

The plant would be built in Britain by Electricite de France SA and one-third funded by China General Nuclear Power Corp. Some in her team have expressed security concerns. Asked if she trusted the Chinese, May replied, “of course we have a relationship with them and we have seen significant Chinese investment. What I want to do is build on that relationship.”

Edited 4 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[moley]

100 Billion pound that the Bank of England have created from nowhere to lend to banks at 0.25% according to the BBC news story with Radio 4 Money Box presenter Paul Lewis.

It's a similar story in the EU.

 

In March this year, the ECB stepped up its attempts to stimulate the eurozone's economy, cutting its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% and its bank deposit rate from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.

The ECB has stepped up its programme of quantitative easing, and is now buying €80bn worth of bonds a month.