EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Ootohere]

I am putting my money on an Early UK General Election being called.

Happy to be wrong, but the muppets & incompetents that Theresa May MP has put into the Cabinet and the fact the Conservative & Unionist Party have her in as Leader & Prime Minister just means that the country is not Safe in their Hands.

[essexalan]

You're aware though we would have no trade deals in place and cannot negotiate any until the article 50 process has finished.

If we were to abandon eu discussions and just leave, it doesn't bode well for how we view legally binding trade deals & laws which is why that will never happen.

Yes I am quite aware of that and the only punishment the EU can carry out would be to suspend our membership, not sure what that would entail, not that they bother when other countries are in breach of EU regs. 

If the 1972 Act can be shown as a breach of our Constitution then none of what followed has any legality in the UK because we were never legally a member in the first place. Wishful thinking but I hate the idea of going to that bunch of Eurocrats cap in hand. If Article 50 ever goes in then we will know within a few months where it is going so we will be wasting our time and money even trying to negotiate.

[@Lee]

Is it starting to sink in yet that the best deal is to remain?

[trundlenut]

Trade is trade and money talks. Not a case of not liking our existing trade agreements but not liking the baggage that comes with them all of which came after the Common Market was set up. The EU will quite happily tear up these agreements anyway and have as good as told us so unless we agree to some draconian measures. They want us gone because we are a bad influence on a number of other countries a lot of whom have found themselves increasingly in debt probably forever to the Federal Bank or is that the Bundesbank.

Money will talk if we just storm out. A **** tax will be added by everyone when they deal with us afterwards, not just the EU.

[gadgetman]

Is it starting to sink in yet that the best deal is to remain?

Or leave and pay the EU just as much, with forced freedom of movement, joining schengen and still having to follow eu laws.

#TakingBackControl

[lol-lol]

Well the settled trading ranges for the Euro and US dollar seem to be respective 1.15-1.20 and 1.25-1.30 compared to the 1.25 to 1.35 (Euro) and 1.42-1.49 (USD) in the first half of the year.

The result of this are:-

• Happy exporters earning much more with their export sales
• Margin squeeze for importers having to choose raising retail prices making less profit or making a loss for a while
• Consumers seeing inflation taking off rising from below 1% pre BREXIT, to 2% now for RPI and an outlook of 3% next year.
• Government receipts from import taxes and VAT risen from the higher prices and the prospect of much higher income from these sources post BREXIT as they keep all taxes.
• Rest of EU will raise much more taxes from imports from the UK as it looks like Uk will not accept Free Movement and therefore customs tariffs will apply.
• Return to 1992 for the requirement of customs entries to be completed for all goods moving from and to UK from Rest of EU.

As a consumer I will miss the lower prices of goods and the possibility of needing a Visa from travel but hopefully dual nationality will get round that. Professionally a mountain of work to implement BREXIT over the next 3 or so years from a customs perspective.

Edited 8 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[The PM]

Is it starting to sink in yet that the best deal is to remain?

 

No it isn't... The more it goes on the more convinced I am that i was right to vote out...

 

Or leave and pay the EU just as much, with forced freedom of movement, joining schengen and still having to follow eu laws.

 

 

Guessing again Gadgetman...

 

As a consumer I will miss the lower prices of goods and the possibility of needing a Visa from travel but hopefully dual nationality will get round that. 

 

 

Never really noticed but as most consumer goods come from China and Japan and I am sure they will be more than happy to have a trade deal in place ASAP, maybe even better than the one we have to abide by now, especially as both countries invest in the UK...

 

We never had to have visas when travelling in Europe before, why would we in the future? Your source?

 

Scaremongering as usual...

Edited 8 December, 2016 by The PM

[lol-lol]

No it isn't... The more it goes on the more convinced I am that i was right to vote out...

 

 

Guessing again Gadgetman...

 

 

Never really noticed but as most consumer goods come from China and Japan and I am sure they will be more than happy to have a trade deal in place ASAP, maybe even better than the one we have to abide by now, especially as both countries invest in the UK...

 

We never had to have visas when travelling in Europe before, why would we in the future? Your source?

 

Scaremongering as usual...

 

Japan is already part way through negotiating Trade deal with the EU.  PRC has usually been excluded from FTAs as it is beyond the criteria as being a dominant supplier ie too big a share of the market already it is also subject of numerous Anti-Dumping cases with the EU and US which the UK will need to replicate to allow our strategic industries to survive.

 

Sources about the possibility of Visa are such as the Daily Telegraph and the consultation of legal experts in the UK...  

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/10/british-travellers-may-need-visas-to-travel-throughout-europe/

 

Thousands of UK and Ulster citizens have already applied for Irish citizenship to avoid possible Visa requirements for the 27 Member States....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/irish-passport-applications-brexit-eu-a7347291.html

Edited 8 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[essexalan]

Money will talk if we just storm out. A **** tax will be added by everyone when they deal with us afterwards, not just the EU.

You don't know that unless you are talking about embargoes and sanctions usually imposed for far more serious matters. Whatever after the two years are up and nothing has been agreed we will still walk away from from any EU trade deal and the UK will still be open for business.

 

The best deal for who? City fat cats and hairdressers or the rest of the population? 

[The PM]

Japan is already part way through negotiating Trade deal with the EU.  PRC has usually been excluded from FTAs as it is beyond the criteria as being a dominant supplier ie too big a share of the market already it is also subject of numerous Anti-Dumping cases with the EU and US which the UK will need to replicate to allow our strategic industries to survive.

 

Sources about the possibility of Visa are such as the Daily Telegraph and the consultation of legal experts in the UK...  

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/10/british-travellers-may-need-visas-to-travel-throughout-europe/

 

Thousands of UK and Ulster citizens have already applied for Irish citizenship to avoid possible Visa requirements for the 27 Member States....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/irish-passport-applications-brexit-eu-a7347291.html

 

No doubt an agreement between Japan and the UK would be a lot easier to reach than one involving 27 countries where one part of one country can put the kibosh on the whole deal though... I wish we had one with Japan, I buy a fair bit from them direct and getting rid of the Post Office's money grabbing antics when dealing with imported goods would suit me fine...

 

Sorry, I should just have highlighted the visa bit, I was aware of the duel nationality "panic", though I think it's a waste of people's time to do that. The Telegraph link, is, as usual with anything to do with Brexit (from both sides!) pure guesswork at this stage. I can remember travelling in Western Europe in the 60s, 70s and 80s without visas, just a passport, and seriously doubt that the EU would be stupid enough to insist on them from UK visitors... Though that link would indicate that visas would also apply to other non-EU European Countries outside the Schengan Zone (such as Eire!) as well as the UK so not directly related to Brexit but to do with terrorism... "as part of a broader response to calls for greater security across the continent following recent terror attacks in France and Belgium." To do what they want to do border controls would do the job better than a visa, it's the "open" nature of the Zone which allows the free movement of the terrorists which is what they are trying to tackle...

Edited 8 December, 2016 by The PM

[moley]

When travelling to the States I do the online ESTA which covers you for 2 years. We could do the same if the EU decided to introduce Visas for UK citizens. Can't see it happening, I've not had to use a Visa for Switzerland and I doubt if the Swiss need a visa for the EU.

[The PM]

They don't, though they are Schengen members, was over in Germany last year but one and visited there and Austria. As you say a visa is not an issue even if we had to have one, it's just yet another thing that has been blown out of all proportion by people who want to remain in the EU...

Edited 8 December, 2016 by The PM

[domhnall]

They don't, though they are Schengen members, was over in Germany last year but one and visited there and Austria. As you say a visa is not an issue even if we had to have one, it's just yet another thing that has been blown out of all proportion by people who want to remain in the EU...

 

the freedom to do business is far more important than visa requirements for holiday makers. Sadly the right to establish for things like professional services is dependent on EU membership. I am currently going through the process of re-qualifying in Ireland to ensure I continue to be able to trade as I do at the moment. Same goes for things like telecoms services etc. We used to have individual requirements to register in each country (often only possible in person at a particular office to make it hard for outsiders to get in). That was all swept away by the EU so long as you are a member. Once we are not members then we lose those benefits.

 

[Ootohere]

Is  Boris just messing about now and happy to get punted from the job he has that requires being at work and being watched all the time?

[lol-lol]

Is  Boris just messing about now and happy to get punted from the job he has that requires being at work and being watched all the time?

 

TM says what Bojo says is not government policy (but he is a UK Minister!), odd !

[gadgetman]

Is Boris just messing about now and happy to get punted from the job he has that requires being at work and being watched all the time?

I would say Boris IS trying to get sacked so he can disappear to the back benches and blame everyone else for the brexit mess.

Sorry Boris, you're front and centre in this mess.

[@Lee]

I would say Boris IS trying to get sacked so he can disappear to the back benches and blame everyone else for the brexit mess.

Sorry Boris, you're front and centre in this mess.

This him shouting his mouth off about the Saudis conducting proxy wars in Yemen?

 

If his aim is to get shunted to the Back I hope he falls flat on his smarmy face.

[moley]

Anyone considered that what Boris said might be true?

[Ootohere]

It is true.

 I have been saying it for the past few years. Saying it here as well.

The UK Government, British Royal Family and Arms Dealers are Fan Boys of the House of Saud & any Royal Family or Rich Country feeding 

the UK Economy and their personal bank accounts.

 

PS 

Boris is something else though. Works to a different agenda.  Prays to the biggest provider of power for him.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37293426

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37376317

Edited 8 December, 2016 by Offski

[@Lee]

Anyone considered that what Boris said might be true?

I don't think anyone's disputing the truth; It's more the fact that a front and centre MP tasked with Brexit should be saying what he said unless he's serving his own agenda (very likely).

 

Have a watch of a documentary called Hypernormalisation recently broadcast on BBC 4.

 

It's quite long so you might have to pay attention

[moley]

European central bank to reduce it's QE programme from 80bn to 60bn euros a month until December 2017.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38252116

[lol-lol]

European central bank to reduce it's QE programme from 80bn to 60bn euros a month until December 2017.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38252116

 

 

Quite a reaction on the market over the Euro on this which was surprising to me as it almost has to happen as QE is less needed as inflation takes off all over the world due to the US due to start raising rates next week.    More noticeable in the UK with the much weaker currency, particularly to the USD.  Interesting times.  

[Clunkclick]

Its becoming apparent now, that whether we stay in EU or partially leave/fully leave and negotiate a new trade deal, movement of labour, on scales similar to what the UK has experienced over the last 10 -15 years will be a feature of the arrangements.

 

The touring that Ms May has been doing this week would suggest that any deals with bodies outside the EU will require the raising of existing bars in respect of workers from the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent.

 

In effect, this is Stage II of Globalisation . . . with immigrant populations, present and prospective,  held as self-re-locating hostages to fortune on the success of the trade deal.

 

Mr Farage, Mr Nuttal and most UKIP activists must have known this well before the referendum . . . . 

 

But then Nige is a City boy, and all he, Mr Banks and the Tories can see is win/win, especially if the UK manages to keep a foot in both camps.

 

Tata National identity.

 

 

Nick

Edited 10 December, 2016 by Clunkclick

[The PM]

Pure Guesswork.

[trundlenut]

Pure Guesswork.

That's because brexit means shut up and go away.