EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[lol-lol]

35 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

^^^^^^ and in his spare time......?

 

Hilary sounded really good in the committee and double D an absolute amateur.  

 

Double D has a background in sugar, shame he is dealing with another 4,999 categories of goods but he is also was a SAS reservist so perhaps he is just playing the fool as a tactical plan, he has got them.

 

As Brad says in the Rocky Horror picture show I expect he is "going to pull out the aces when the time is right", then realise he has only a couple of cards and they are a 2 and a 3.   

[lol-lol]

Sounds like the UK, and with the DUP, Irish Republic and EU agreement, have aligned itself for the "Turkey" model.

 

If we are aligned for EU external tariff then we cannot do trade deal, at least not for a while until end of transition.

 

As with Norway, Switzerland and Turkey we would have to do customs entries but there would not be a need for economic intervention but do we still pay three quarters of customs duties to the EU as we do currently?

 

Lots of questions unanswered by the simplistic announcements so far.

 

Edited 8 December, 2017 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

So looking like there will be customs entries and therefore certificates of origin required and only goods that meet the origin rules, something like 60% of UK content by value to claim the zero customs duty access so lots of work to:-

1. establish goods qualify for zero duty preference to the EU
2. acquire the pref cert from the Chamber of Commerce or have permission to self certify if AEO or AEO standard
3. submit the export entry out of the UK to the EU
4. submit the import entry to the EU country with any pref certs one has
5. Pay the dues for all the above stages
6. Pay the £50B leaving fee
7. Obey all the EU rules on standards
8. Have little to no say on those standards

Stunning deal, well done.

[181ce]

Seriously ?,how did you think it would work ?,

Were off thanks,

Btw we don't actually owe you anything ,oh and we'll do everything we want to just the way we want to from here on thanks

[CWARD]

I take it no one bothered to read the actual report on Phase 1  No shocker there, I guess too many words and details when you can just make random statements.  

 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/joint_report.pdf

[Harryc]

As a weak kneed liberal Brexitexiteer it is difficult not to say 'I told you so' but I have bit my opinionated tongue up until now in case I get my face punched in by a rabid Brexiteer.  If it was not so tragic it would be funny.  'We' do not know what 'we' want and 'we' do not know how to get it but 'we' will bumble along until time runs out but 'we' are not exactly sure when that is or what the economic costs/risks will be.  BIzarre.

No matter though as 'we' will stop immigration, which a recent report has indicated was the main reason why 'we' decided to undertake a kamikaze raid on Brussels.  What I have never been able to get my head around is: if the main reason for EU departure was to halt immigration why did we not just stop the circa 150k of non-EU folk from entering the country in 2015?  I am guessing it must be because we have a colonial fondness for Africans and Indians who will kow tow to our demands rather than putting up with those bolshie Poles.

Answers on a postcard to Almost Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.

[lol-lol]

This Phase one report does not say anything much of what the administrative processes the UK has to adopt for its goods movements and as previously said no non-EU member is exempt from doing customs entries (with the exception of some tiny states wholly within the EU external border).  UK will push for the most lenient form of automated customs processes that impact in the most minimal way for the flow of goods.  Uk and EU would have the power to stop any goods consignment for both security and fiscal reasons and check goods are conforming to the FTA agreed, as happens on the Norwegian, Swiss and Turkish borders at present. 

 

Separation bill will be in Euros and around 50 Billion so how many pounds we pay will depend on the exchange rate at the time.  

 

Government will have more money ie with, eventually no Eu contribution, so my 2030 or so the UK might be quids in but I see nothing to show that the UK consumer will be better off having to foot the bill for higher landed cost of goods.  

 

Still searching for a substantive benefit of leaving the EU as the high immigration issue has been largely solved by the driving downwards of the UK currency since the Brexit vote. 

[domhnall]

If immigration is really the top priority for the UK then why have they just agreed to keep an open border with the EU?

 

 

[CWARD]

I still can't see anywhere in the detail that reports that we are adopting a Turkey style agreement with those negotiations not starting until phase 2 as you previously stated. 

 

Also notice you make no mention of the previous fear stories that we won't have co-operation on terrorism and crime, both stated in the report that they will be ongoing with other areas covered too. 

 

[CWARD]

12 minutes ago, domhnall said:

If immigration is really the top priority for the UK then why have they just agreed to keep an open border with the EU?

 

 

 

54. Both Parties recognise that the United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (Common Travel Area), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law. The United Kingdom confirms and accepts that the Common Travel Area and associated rights and privileges can continue to operate without affecting Ireland’s obligations under Union law, in particular with respect to free movement for EU citizens.

 

Common Travel Area  is not the same as Freedom of Movement

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_abroad/freedom_of_movement_within_the_eu/common_travel_area_between_ireland_and_the_uk.html

[Ootohere]

" Until everything is agreed nothing is agreed."    I believe that the present Prime Minister said that, or is reported to have done.

 

They are just trying to get on with moving onto stage 2 or what ever.

Done Stage 1 and never had it on the Dyno, getting a Stage 2 with no hard ware changes, and want more Speed and better MPG, 

& think that this can be achieved with the Old Exhaust and Intercooler still fitted.

 

Some guys down the pub is advising them.  Everything well thought out with no sleep and lots of coffee, 

because the next awaydays are already booked.

[domhnall]

5 minutes ago, CWARD said:

 

54. Both Parties recognise that the United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (Common Travel Area), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law. The United Kingdom confirms and accepts that the Common Travel Area and associated rights and privileges can continue to operate without affecting Ireland’s obligations under Union law, in particular with respect to free movement for EU citizens.

 

Common Travel Area  is not the same as Freedom of Movement

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_abroad/freedom_of_movement_within_the_eu/common_travel_area_between_ireland_and_the_uk.html

 

oh I know but people can move freely into Ireland from the other 26 member states. They are then free to move around in the UK too. 

 

So we have an open border with the EU. 

[CWARD]

11 minutes ago, domhnall said:

 

oh I know but people can move freely into Ireland from the other 26 member states. They are then free to move around in the UK too. 

 

So we have an open border with the EU. 

 

I take it you don't bother to read the links.

 

The Common Travel Area also involves some co-operation on matters relating to immigration issues. A third country national, for example, may be refused permission to enter Ireland if it is their intention to travel onwards to the UK and they would not qualify for admission to the UK under the Aliens (Amendment) Order 1975. Irish immigration officers have the power to carry out checks on people arriving in the State from the UK and to refuse them entry to the State on the same grounds as apply to people arriving from outside the Common Travel Area. These checks are carried out selectively.

In December 2011, the Irish and UK governments agreed measures to secure the external Common Travel Area border. This includes exchanging biographic and biometric visa data and co-operating on establishing information about failed asylum seekers. There is a joint UK-Ireland Common Travel Area Forum which implements these measures.

 

I'll give you a hint those arriving from other EU states would not be covered by the Common Travel Area as they are not residents of the UK or Ireland. When entering the mainland and they show their passports and the address isn't UK or Irish they'll be treated the same as any non Irish EU citizen arriving in Dover from France or Hamburg to Heathrow.  

[domhnall]

My point is that you can turn up at the Irish border and say "no I have no plans to travel to the UK", in you go (because they cannot legally prevent you getting in as an EU citizen) and then on you go.  You don't show your passport entering the mainland, that's what the DUP were so against, there can be no border checks between NI and Britain, it is politically unacceptable.  I had some very detailed explanations about this from my DUP in laws in Belfast last weekend. Passport checks to enter Britain will not be tolerated.   They are the most sensible way of dealing with the concerns in England about immigration though. 

 

Still at least the main two areas  I have been working on (continuation of EU telecoms regulations and energy market regulation) both now seem to be secured. At least until the Brexiteers realise that this means continued EU regulation and kick off about it. 

 

Edited 8 December, 2017 by domhnall

[CWARD]

You may have seen controls like the ones below before. Now imagine instead of it stating UK/EU and All other passports it says CTA and All other passports. People can be stopped just like they already are when going through these channels and enquiries made at random or to people that look they shouldn't be in the CTA queue i.e. the non Irish /UK registered or hire car, the family travelling on foot speaking French "Sorry Sir, you're in the wrong queue you need to be in the Non-CTA one just there. I hope you've applied for the correct visa otherwise we'll have to impose a penalty, then turn you around to where you came from. Have a nice day."  "Oh, you lied to Domnhall and you do have plans to travel to the UK. Well this is as far you're getting please pay your penalty and I hope you enjoyed getting this far before we turned you around." 

 

[@Lee]

Meanwhile.....................

 

Quote

EU agrees biggest free trade deal with Japan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42282116

[@Lee]

 

[CWARD]

12 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

Meanwhile.....................

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42282116

 

Did they agree this again, did something change since July? It wasn't that long since they agreed it last time but still not ratified.  

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40520218

[lol-lol]

July - Outline agreement.      December - finalised.     http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1767    

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Press release     JAPAN | Brussels, 8 December 2017

EU and Japan finalise Economic Partnership Agreement

Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström and Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono today announced the successful conclusion of the final discussions on the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA).  Building on the political agreement in principle reached during the EU-Japan Summit on 6 July 2017, negotiators from both sides have been tying up the last details in order to finish the legal text. This process is now finalised.

[CWARD]

Not to be signed off until 2019

[lol-lol]

^^^^^^^^^

 

Therefore just as the UK leaves the EU and when the UK is not part of the EU-bilateral FTA deals and therefore all remaining EU companies benefit from the deals and the UK does not (unless the Department of International Affair manages to get it photocopied and replicated as a deal for the UK-Japan as well as the other 34 or similar FTAs, South Korea, South Africa, Mexico, Canada etc etc which the UK will lose the benefits from.

 

 

[CWARD]

Quite correct and we will be free to agree our own FTA’s which will be a benefit to us. 

 

It still needs to be ratified and plenty are still unhappy with the agreement with Germany and France the main benefactors so that they have a new market for their excess milk production which Japan has a high demand for. Meanwhile it opens up the EU to Japanese car manufacturers which the French with Peugeot and Italians with Fiat still unhappy after the EU - South Korea deal. 

 

Meanwhile the Federal State of Europe gains more traction with a weak Angela Merkel. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merkel-s-rival-martin-schulz-demands-a-united-states-of-europe-by-2025-as-price-of-coalition-9rg2dc57j

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Europe

 

[moley]

I'm not sure what the EU hopes to gain from this Japanese trade deal.

Trade tariffs on Japanese imports were set up to protect European car makers against the cheap imports of Japanese cars, which lead the Japanese to set up car manufacturing in Europe to get around the tariffs. Anyone remember what happened to the British motorcycle industry? 

On the face of it the EU will be able to ship farm produce to Japan, while the Japanese will be able to export cars, motorcycles, electrical goods etc into Europe.

Good deal?

[Harryc]

It will be interesting to see where the UK automative industry is in 2002 after the dust has settled. The big three Japanese companies initially selected the UK because of the subsidies and acccess to the EU.  There are also the Germans to consider with Bentley, RR, Vauxhall, GM and the Mini.  Plus Tata and the JLR group.  I think it is unlikely the prestige brands will be much affected and it all depends on how the market evolves for the rest.  For instance will BMW only produce Minis for the UK, in the UK, and produce the rest in a low cost EU country?  Will the Japanese leave the UK or will they be encouraged to stay with wads of cash?  And then there are the supply chains and logistics to take in to account.  Forty something percent of UK manufactured cars are made up of parts from overseas (do not know how many are sourced from the EU).  A Bently bumper vists the UK twice, Germany once and an Eastern European country once.  The crankshaft for a Mini has a similar journey.

On a more positive note, Gateshead (where I live) has just received £2m to subsidise a community project.  We shall miss those EU handouts, unless of course our cruel faced cockney overlords step in and help us out as they normally do.  Unlikely I fear, as Westminster did enough for us (and the Nissan car workers), when they paid for the ammunition to shoot ourselves in the foot with an Exit vote.

[lol-lol]

6 hours ago, moley said:

I'm not sure what the EU hopes to gain from this Japanese trade deal.

Trade tariffs on Japanese imports were set up to protect European car makers against the cheap imports of Japanese cars, which lead the Japanese to set up car manufacturing in Europe to get around the tariffs. Anyone remember what happened to the British motorcycle industry? 

On the face of it the EU will be able to ship farm produce to Japan, while the Japanese will be able to export cars, motorcycles, electrical goods etc into Europe.   Good deal?

 

There is a whole website/pages for the EU-Japan agreement on Europa.  

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-japan-economic-partnership-agreement/agreement-explained/

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/may/tradoc_154522.pdf

 

The Japanese made more interesting bikes in the late 60s and early 70s, also had inaccurate speedos that fooled people in to thinking the bikes were faster than they really were, though I had a T250 hustler it was PDQ, would have like to have compared with it with an Ariel Arrow.