Hi all skoda-ites,

I drive a fabia estate TDI and do about 15k miles a year, wife drives a 1.6 cr TDI 7 year old golf but does 20-25k a year. Her current car has almost 130 on the clock. Hence we both fit exactly into the 'buy a diesel' category.

The current plan is to run her car until it dies or throws the "it's not worth it" bill. 

My question is about the future availability of medium sized diesel cars in general. When she needs replacement, hopefully in 2-4 years time, will medium sized diesels still be available or even worth purchasing as it appears that most cars now come with small turbo petrol engines.

Not that petrol is an issue but it would drastically increase fuel costs. We had a 1.2 tsi golf as a courtesy car when he golf was in for 'the fix' and due to us living in the middle on nowhere in a really hilly area of the north Pennines, it managed only 38mpg, when her 1.6 TDI manages 55 on average.

I know that keeping her current car is the cheapest option but I'm curious what people think availability of entry model medium sized diesel cars will be in 2-4 years time. Also noting that it seams cheap to buy 12-18 month old diesels at the minute, especially the rapid.

Any ideas /thoughts?



 

There will be loads of brand new current production Diesels Euro 6 cheap before September 2018. & Pre reg ones at reduced prices as well.

Buyers market.

Who can predict what the UK has as VED / Emissions requirements after next March in the budgets, or what Sterling & Tariffs will do to New Car prices in the UK.

There will be plenty Much Cheapness Used ones that are Being First Registered in 2018 and before, and possibly in 2019.

 

Hopefully loads of economic good vehicles in the UK after BREXIT. British Built and Imported.

For certain there will be more Low Emission Zones in Towns and Cities, but then if that is not a concern Diesel will still be king for higher mileage travellers 

& goods vehicles etc.

15k miles per year is marginal, a lot would depend upon if its lots of short town journeys, or fewer longer journeys.

Don't expect a new diesel to be as efficient (or as cheap to buy) as a euro5 spec version

 

I suspect you will still be able to buy big diesels in the Golf size car, but not in Fabia size in 2 years, but likely to be scarce new in 4 years (manufacturers have to decide if it is worth further development to meet increasingly strict emissions rules).   Toyota have said (at Geneva) they are phasing out diesel cars, and new Auris wont get a diesel

 

Of course there will be nearly new and demonstrators and even stock new cars when they hit the discontinue button, at that point you will have to decide to go for it (even if doesn't coincide with death of old car)

Well we live 8 miles from the local shops/school so we do that almost every day. All other journeys are 20+ miles on A roads/dual/motorways. Hence, why a diesel is perfect. I also go to Manchester twice a month and that's a 250 mile round trip and my little fabia 1.4 tdi 75 three pot, loves it and gets over 60mpg+ providing I keep below 80. It even pulls up Hartside pass without me thinking I need more power.

I guess it's a matter of keeping one's eyes peeled and if the right car comes at the right price, just pounce. Traditionally we've bought 12-18 month old VW group cars as they appear to offer great value. Also two good local indy VW specialists helps matters too. (well 25 miles away is local to us!)


 

There will be no 1.4 TDI 3 Cylinder in a new Fabia from this year, and not in other VW Group from soon.

They are doing models like the New Karoq 1.6TDI right now without SCR / Ad-blue, i doubt any of those will be getting built by the end of 2018.

On 3/8/2018 at 08:35, abaxas said:

Hi all skoda-ites,

I drive a fabia estate TDI and do about 15k miles a year, wife drives a 1.6 cr TDI 7 year old golf but does 20-25k a year. Her current car has almost 130 on the clock. Hence we both fit exactly into the 'buy a diesel' category.

The current plan is to run her car until it dies or throws the "it's not worth it" bill. 

My question is about the future availability of medium sized diesel cars in general. When she needs replacement, hopefully in 2-4 years time, will medium sized diesels still be available or even worth purchasing as it appears that most cars now come with small turbo petrol engines.

Not that petrol is an issue but it would drastically increase fuel costs. We had a 1.2 tsi golf as a courtesy car when he golf was in for 'the fix' and due to us living in the middle on nowhere in a really hilly area of the north Pennines, it managed only 38mpg, when her 1.6 TDI manages 55 on average.

I know that keeping her current car is the cheapest option but I'm curious what people think availability of entry model medium sized diesel cars will be in 2-4 years time. Also noting that it seams cheap to buy 12-18 month old diesels at the minute, especially the rapid.

Any ideas /thoughts?
 

 

 

Might be best to split your risk ie one diesel on petrol (EVs are becoming ever more Eco sense, Zoe is probably the best economically at this time).

 

Many UK cities are planning to implementing charging system for entering the suburban area and diesels may well be targeted for additional entry charges where the petrol models may escape the fee or the diesels may be banned from entering complete at some or all times.

 

I do around 40,000 miles a year ie as much as you and your other half do together but have not run diesels since 2009.  Average about 50 mpg but pay about %15 less on the monthly PCP for the car than if it was the diesel version, yes that it is only about £50 a month and the petrol probably uses £30 more in fuel than the diesel.  Wish I was brave enough to go for the EV.  Occasional trips to my Heathrow office, doable in a Zoe ie 120 miles, ten EV charging points there, charge up for about £5 if that, maybe £3 at home overnight.   

 

If you are planning to keep the car for a good few years, what is the UK going to like in 2 or 5 years in respect to car running costs, VED, fuel costs. Also there is what is the socially responsible thing to do, use something that is belching out NOX and PM with all that health costs on our fellow citizens or embrace the change at the earliest opportunity.     

 

Edited 9 March, 20188 yr by lol-lol

On 08/03/2018 at 10:49, abaxas said:

Well we live 8 miles from the local shops/school so we do that almost every day. All other journeys are 20+ miles on A roads/dual/motorways. Hence, why a diesel is perfect. I also go to Manchester twice a month and that's a 250 mile round trip and my little fabia 1.4 tdi 75 three pot, loves it and gets over 60mpg+ providing I keep below 80. It even pulls up Hartside pass without me thinking I need more power.

I guess it's a matter of keeping one's eyes peeled and if the right car comes at the right price, just pounce. Traditionally we've bought 12-18 month old VW group cars as they appear to offer great value. Also two good local indy VW specialists helps matters too. (well 25 miles away is local to us!)

Not worth going to Hartside for a week or two - was totally destroyed by fire last week!  
 

 

Yeah, I'm sure it'll be rebuilt from the ashes.

where else are you going to see grown men in leather romper suits embarass themselves as they use the toilet :P

h

 

Diesels will be around for a while yet. But you can expect them to get more expensive to buy and depreciate less so overall running costs will be higher.

 

Small turbo petrol engines are the worst liars for mpg tests. They give next to no power unless the turbo is spinning which means more fuel consumed.

 

I've had a 1.2T Qashqia with a paper 120hp it has weird driving characteristics. Could be occasionally scary if you came round a corner off the turbo and you'd have no power to pull away, would also run out of steam suddenly when over taking on the naughty side of the speed limit. Significant turbo lag and mediocre mpg. Paper figure of 54mpg and a driven very conservatively on 60mph roads I could get 42mpg (Honest John showing 36mpg). That's worse than me 335d.

 

Basically small petrol turbos are good for fooling emissions tests and not much else.

Edited 9 March, 20188 yr by Aspman

" Basically small petrol turbos are good for fooling emissions tests and not much else. "

So, another VWGroup, and others, CHEAT?

Wonder what 'the Fix' will be for them? - a huge rebore and bin the turbo ?

@lol-lol - it's not as clear as petrol vs diesel when it comes to emissions. For example:

 

The 2016 3.0 litre BMW 5 Series, the least polluting diesel, emits only 23 milligrams of NOx per kilometre, less than a third of the legal limit of 80mg/km. The 2016 petrol Renault Kadjar 1.2 litre emits 130mg/km, six times as much as the diesel BMW.

 

The cleanest 10 per cent of new diesel cars emit an average 70mg of NOx per kilometre whereas the dirtiest 10 per cent of the petrol models emit 129mg/km, according to the tests, which involve driving on roads in contrast to the official tests that are conducted under laboratory conditions.

 

Taken from: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/diesel-tax-anger-new-models-beat-petrol-nox-pollution-tests/

 

Edited 9 March, 20188 yr by langers2k

1 hour ago, punyXpress said:

" Basically small petrol turbos are good for fooling emissions tests and not much else. "

So, another VWGroup, and others, CHEAT?

Wonder what 'the Fix' will be for them? - a huge rebore and bin the turbo ?

 

They're not cheating they were just built to work for the lab tests not for real life.

That's why the look great on paper and are rubbish in the real world (IMHO).

Thanks for all your replies. I guess it's like I thought, diesel may become harder to find in the future but I think we'll wait for maybe 18 months before looking again, unless a really good deal pops up

 

I think that diesel will be around a while yet. Whilst there appears to be more less new registration diesel cars recently, like Golfs and V40s, there are plenty of nearly new diesel cars around on pre reg. I bought my Octavia last year with 11 miles on the clock for about 6 grand under list with the intention of keeping it a long time. It is a basic SE with autowipers and lights so has in theory less to go wrong.....I do about 13000 miles a year and as the mileage has increased it has becoming more satisfying to drive. I dont expect it to hold its value but I wanted something safe and reliable and comfortable. It will be paid off after another 2 years and then will owe me nothing. The plan is to keep it a good years after that. 

 

It is also probably my last diesel. Will be interesting to see how the EV revolution goes. I live in a street with no offstreet parking so home charging is not an option. 

4 hours ago, Aspman said:

Diesels will be around for a while yet. But you can expect them to get more expensive to buy and depreciate less so overall running costs will be higher.

Small turbo petrol engines are the worst liars for mpg tests. They give next to no power unless the turbo is spinning which means more fuel consumed.

I've had a 1.2T Qashqia with a paper 120hp it has weird driving characteristics. Could be occasionally scary if you came round a corner off the turbo and you'd have no power to pull away, would also run out of steam suddenly when over taking on the naughty side of the speed limit. Significant turbo lag and mediocre mpg. Paper figure of 54mpg and a driven very conservatively on 60mph roads I could get 42mpg (Honest John showing 36mpg). That's worse than me 335d.

Basically small petrol turbos are good for fooling emissions tests and not much else.

 

Not my experience.   Done 20K miles per annum in the Logan and its 900cc engine is completely capable of  all my requirements which include driving 800 miles to Dundee and back in two days at NSL plus 10%.  Going on holiday with 4 Adults and 600 litres of luggage. Yes probably only averaged around 45 mpg when tanking at those slightly illegal speeds.  

 

Advantages I see with the diesels I have had (lots of 1.9 PDs and a rather poor, by comparison 2 litre CR that put me off having another diesel as well as all the very bad health issues).

1.  Longer between fill ups
2. Longer between services usually.
3. Use to have higher residuals but not any more
4. More low down torque if you tow (but I don't so no bother) 

  But now

1. Residuals are become worse than petrols
2. Looking like they will be restricted for entering urban areas in the near future.
3. Poor fuel consumption and engine and exhaust component damage for short journeys ie up to 5 miles or so, (petrols get to ambient running temperature quicker)
4. Still more expensive to buy and getting more so with the addition of SCR systems and the like 

 

I cannot see me every buying another diesel after having a dozen of them and being an ex-diesel apprentice, they are just too damaging in respect to NOX and PMs and I have too much of a social conscious to rejoin that brigade.  

 

4 hours ago, langers2k said:

@lol-lol - it's not as clear as petrol vs diesel when it comes to emissions. For example:

The 2016 3.0 litre BMW 5 Series, the least polluting diesel, emits only 23 milligrams of NOx per kilometre, less than a third of the legal limit of 80mg/km. The 2016 petrol Renault Kadjar 1.2 litre emits 130mg/km, six times as much as the diesel BMW.

The cleanest 10 per cent of new diesel cars emit an average 70mg of NOx per kilometre whereas the dirtiest 10 per cent of the petrol models emit 129mg/km, according to the tests, which involve driving on roads in contrast to the official tests that are conducted under laboratory conditions.

Taken from: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/diesel-tax-anger-new-models-beat-petrol-nox-pollution-tests/

 

 

What a mis-guiding report.  What was the average of the diesels and the petrols not just the very best diesel (in the rather limited test) and the worst of the petrols ?

 

The output from Emmisions Analytics, a tiny firm on an industrial estate near High Wickham, should be taken with a pinch of salt and we should have the proper results from governments and car makers which will not just take a single model at random, which  might be damaged and unrepresentative.  

 

Europe's major cities British, French, German, Spanish etc are taking the decisions on much more information than newspaper articles designed to excite their readership thankfully.  

 

Just about the worst and detail lacking article I have seen which thankfully will be ignored by our local, national and international governance it terms of policy.  EV, pure petrol or petrol-hyrid are the ways forward and diesel and dying bred that only deserves to be in trucks (and even that will be gone in a decade or so) and maybe ships (even those are only allowed to use Low sulfur diesel in European waters.  

Should have died out in the 20th Century and preserved/save a few million lives around the world.   

9 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

What a mis-guiding report.  What was the average of the diesels and the petrols not just the very best diesel (in the rather limited test) and the worst of the petrols ?

 

The output from Emmisions Analytics, a tiny firm on an industrial estate near High Wickham, should be taken with a pinch of salt and we should have the proper results from governments and car makers which will not just take a single model at random, which  might be damaged and unrepresentative.  

 

Europe's major cities British, French, German, Spanish etc are taking the decisions on much more information than newspaper articles designed to excite their readership thankfully.  

 

Just about the worst and detail lacking article I have seen which thankfully will be ignored by our local, national and international governance it terms of policy.  EV, pure petrol or petrol-hyrid are the ways forward and diesel and dying bred that only deserves to be in trucks (and even that will be gone in a decade or so) and maybe ships (even those are only allowed to use Low sulfur diesel in European waters.  

Should have died out in the 20th Century and preserved/save a few million lives around the world.   

 

You say the above but wasn't it a very limited set of results that kicked off all the anti-diesel rhetoric and, if I recall correctly, it was Emissions Analytics involved in those tests as well - so why would you now discredit them having been so vociferous about their previous work??

 

The whole point about using such companies is that their results are independent from those of the governments and manufacturers that are often done 'in-house' as it were and hence prone to skew and bias.

 

Yes the article may be lacking in detail but so were those re Diesel emissions at the same stage...

Because it doesn’t fit his argument 

Last March the London Mayor launched a car emissions checker.  That is based on the information Emissions Analytics has from testing 900 vehicles across Europe is it not?

Maybe a small company, but with rather influential backers is it not.

Going to have a lot of influence on the actions the UK Government and Cities Leaders are going to be taking.

 

EDIT.

Mayor delivers online checker to help car buyers choose cleaner cars _ London City Hall.mhtml

Edited 9 March, 20188 yr by AwaoffSki

Yeah, that’s the one that lol-lol used before to make a point is now saying is just “a tiny firm”. Certainly lives up to his name 

2 hours ago, skomaz said:

You say the above but wasn't it a very limited set of results that kicked off all the anti-diesel rhetoric and, if I recall correctly, it was Emissions Analytics involved in those tests as well - so why would you now discredit them having been so vociferous about their previous work??   The whole point about using such companies is that their results are independent from those of the governments and manufacturers that are often done 'in-house' as it were and hence prone to skew and bias.  Yes the article may be lacking in detail but so were those re Diesel emissions at the same stage...

 

We are now getting the test result from the RDE test which is the new standard that car producers will shortly have to publish their results, VW are holding off joining the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (except the Bentley Division oddly) and the result are not good reading even with those open enough to publish ie Ford's diesel nearly twice the legal limit.......

A lot higher than the lab test result allowed  of course.     http://www.acea.be/publications/article/access-to-euro-6-rde-monitoring-data

 

Not a single Skoda diesel in the A+, rating, only Skoda petrol cars, and no Minis diesels either.   Worth considering this if choosing a car that may be subject to restrictions in the future if only A+ cars ie only that actually conform to the real 60 mg/Km of NOX, are allowed in to cities.  

 

All will be revealed when the consolidated RDE result are released but it may be too late if one has bought a car that then gets put in it correct category as a bad (NOX/PM) polluter with the consequential loss in it resale value.        

 

Ford 1500 diesel

Make

commercial name

type

variant

version

WVTA

propulsion type

fuel type

combustion process

No of cyl.

conf. cyl. block

displ.

fuel inject.

cooling sys.

air supply

type&sequ. aftertreatment

EGR

MAW_MNOx,d,t

MAW_MCO,d,t

MAW_MPN,d,t

MAW_MNOx,d,u

MAW_MCO,d,u

MAW_MPN,d,u

SPF_MNOx,d,t

SPF _MCO,d,t

SPF _MPN,d,t

SPF _MNOx,d,u

SPF _MCO,d,u

SPF _MPN,d,u

M_NOx,d,t

[cm³]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

FORD

FIESTA

JHH

XUJF1JX

5DCDNALY

E9*2007/46*3142*00

ICE

Diesel

4-stroke

4

in-line

1499

direct

water

single turbo (FGT)

LNT, sDPF

Yes/ext/air-cooled/high pressure

153.5

40.3

-

136.8

52.9

-

160.9

58.1

-

141

63.9

-

149.4

& BMW 3 litre in the X6

 

Identification of PEMS TEST FAMILY (MS-OEM-X-Y)

Technical Criteria for PEMS TEST FAMILY

PEMS test results

PEMS TEST FAMILY

TAA code

MF code

emission type

Make

commercial name

type

variant

version

WVTA

propulsion type

fuel type

combustion process

No of cyl.

conf. cyl. block

displ.

fuel inject.

cooling sys.

air supply

type&sequ. aftertreatment

EGR

MAW_MNOx,d,t

MAW_MCO,d,t

MAW_MPN,d,t

MAW_MNOx,d,u

MAW_MCO,d,u

MAW_MPN,d,u

SPF_MNOx,d,t

SPF _MCO,d,t

SPF _MPN,d,t

SPF _MNOx,d,u

SPF _MCO,d,u

SPF _MPN,d,u

M_NOx,d,t

M_CO,d,t

M_PN,d,t

M_NOx,d,u

M_CO,d,u

M_PN,d,u

[cm³]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

[mg/km]

[mg/km]

[#/km]

1-WBA-D12

1

WBA*

E24*715/2007*2017/1347AD*0524*00

BMW

X6M50D

X6

KV61

6AW50000

E1*2007/46*0412*17

ICE

Diesel

4-stroke

6

in line

2993

Direct injection

Water

multi

NSC-DSF-SCR

EGR/ext/cooled/high

67.9

12.4

4,66*10^10

120.4

28.8

5,25*10^10

60.8

52.6

5,96*10^10

109.5

133.6

9,30*10^10

not applicable

not applicable

not applicable

not applicable

not applicable

not applicable

 

 

Buy another diesel, especially if your used to good fuel economy already and you manage to get a good deal on a second hand one.

 

I think people have got carried away with anti-diesel stuff, all quoted mpg figures are misleading but they have really gone to town on the mpg figures for petrols in recent years.

 

Diesels are great. I cover around 30k+ a year in the Octavia, averaging mid 50's mpg. If I change to petrol I would be around 10mpg worse off. There is a lot of hysteria about diesels killing millions of people a year, well if they are that bad why don't we just ban all diesels now, that's lorries, buses, vans, etc. 

Is it really worth taking the risk of buying a more expensive diesel when the RDE results coming out show that fuel consumption is not that much different than the turbo petrol (and diesel fuel is more expensive to buy) and even with these latest RDE results diesels are two to four times as NOX polluting as petrol cars and therefore the ones in the cross hairs for getting off our roads (or paying additional heavy access charge to city via taxes).   https://www.groupe-psa.com/en/newsroom/corporate-en/le-groupe-psa-publie-les-emissions-de-polluants-de-ses-vehicules-en-usage-reel/

 

If you want to pay Russian roulette with your future finances buy a diesel or play it safer with a good turbo petrol engined car, or go petrol hybrid, or adopt early and go full EV on one of your cars.    

 

Edited 10 March, 20188 yr by lol-lol

ESTIMATED   / AVERAGE / REAL-WORLD / LOW MILEAGE.

 

They never were a good idea for 'low mileage',  and estimates are pretty rubbish when what you want is actual results from vehicles.

This 'Real World Emissions' is just another load of guff.