£1 per litre

[cheezemonkhai]

As petrol rises over £5 a gallon (£1.10 a litre) it is also concerning that the British pound is now weakening substantially now as the markets react to an increased possibility that the UK may leave the EU, now down to about 1.41 USD to a GBP but looking like it could drop to below 1.40 as markets see Brexit more likely and then financial institutions predict 1.3 or less if the UK does actually brexit.

 

If not adjusted by way of excise duties or VAT, we would then see diesel and petrol prices rise by another few pence per litre, interesting times ahead.   

 

Why interesting, we might actually export stuff and make some money to get rid of our debts.

£1.10 isn't a biggy compared to what they were about a year ago.

[lol-lol]

Why interesting, we might actually export stuff and make some money to get rid of our debts.

£1.10 isn't a biggy compared to what they were about a year ago.

 

But how are we going to complete if our cars attract 10% duty going in to Europe as the standard customs duty rate for a non-EU, non-GSP, non-EUR1 country (we may get an FTA with the EU after 4 to 9 years of negotiation which is the range of times FTAs take).

 

Transports cost are the average household largest outoging and with the GBP already 10% weaker against the Euro and the USD over the last 12 months and predicted by IMF, PwC etc to fall another 10-15% if Brexit occurs then both fuel and new cars will be much more expensive.

 

To those of us who do 45K miles a year and buy a car every 18 months this will be a huge greater living cost. £1.30 a litre could well be here by the end of year if things unfold badly.    

[WaveyDavey]

But how are we going to complete if our cars attract 10% duty going in to Europe as the standard customs duty rate for a non-EU, non-GSP, non-EUR1 country (we may get an FTA with the EU after 4 to 9 years of negotiation which is the range of times FTAs take).

 

Transports cost are the average household largest outoging and with the GBP already 10% weaker against the Euro and the USD over the last 12 months and predicted by IMF, PwC etc to fall another 10-15% if Brexit occurs then both fuel and new cars will be much more expensive.

 

To those of us who do 45K miles a year and buy a car every 18 months this will be a huge greater living cost. £1.30 a litre could well be here by the end of year if things unfold badly.    

 

 

If i could afford to buy a car every 18 months i don't think it would bother me!!!! And if it did maybe i'd have to think about only getting one every 24 months instead..... Heaven forbid!!!

[lol-lol]

If i could afford to buy a car every 18 months i don't think it would bother me!!!! And if it did maybe i'd have to think about only getting one every 24 months instead..... Heaven forbid!!!

 

Who buys new cars now any ways.  I gather from the trade that only 15% of new cars are being actually bought and the rest are on PCP etc.

 

When the government raised VAT to 20% it effectively strangled the private market and in combination with the weakness of the British pound to the Euro, where most UK sold cars are made ie Germany or Spain, we have not seen the discounts of the 15 and 20% magnitude on most car makes, like we did with Skoda a few years ago when they did the "we pay the VAT offers".

 

Many of the cars I buy are at the 3 years old mark, some people do ridiculously low mileage ie about 6k a year and so take a hit of about paying £1 a mile for their cars and they are bargains to pick up at 3 years old ie half price, less than 20k miles, immaculate and with Renault still a year of the warranty and free servicing so I can add 20K miles with little overhead costs.

 

Dacia is the only brand I would buy new these days as they are the only decently priced cars that do not take a bath on residuals as they as so cheap to buy new but perfectly able at doing everything I need ie carrying, cruising, running costs to make a profit even at 25p a mile and a £9k per year car allowance.  

 

Buying a new car for £20K plus for a average performing car is a mugs game IMO unless an electric one where the running costs will be a £100 a month instead of £500 a month for someone who does the 40K miles a year as I do.

[lol-lol]

By your fuel ASAP as a spike in prices will be coming in the next few days.   Exchange rate shave already been set for July for customs rates.......

 

Country       Currency Currency code Currency units per £1 Start date     End date

Eurozone       Euro                      EUR     1.3017       01/07/2016  31/07/2016

USA            Dollar                    USD     1.4672       01/07/2016  31/07/2016

 

After this I think much of us will start to drive very economically again.   

Edited 24 June, 2016 by lol-lol

[FromTheDarkness]

Morrisons & Tesco  = petrol £1.07, diesel £1.07 

[Aspman]

Morrisons & Tesco  = petrol £1.07, diesel £1.07 

 

Will take a wee while but they will definitely spike up.

 

Might come back down again depending on how things settle.

[FUBAR]

Both cars are now on just under half a tank, last refills over the border were 95.9ppl.......... I fear that for the first time in the history of FUBAR I will end up filling up in NI.... 

[FromTheDarkness]

I wonder how the "out" vote will effect prices?

[Aspman]

I wonder how the "out" vote will effect prices?

 

Have you ever known any business to use uncertainty as an opportunity to lower prices?

[FromTheDarkness]

Have you ever known any business to use uncertainty as an opportunity to lower prices?

Oil industry no :P

Bank of England are **** scared of a resection so will lower the interest rates, does that count :P 

[Aspman]

Oil industry no :p

Bank of England are **** scared of a resection so will lower the interest rates, does that count :p

 

Lower interest rates lower the value of the pound so would actually put the price of fuel up.

 

Happy days :|

[lol-lol]

Oil industry no :P

Bank of England are **** scared of a resection so will lower the interest rates, does that count :P

No. Oil valued in US DOLLARS so price of crude up by 10% in GB POUND terms which would add about 3p a litre to fuel so between a quid and two for a tank for a car but tenners for a truck fuel tank.

[BJM]

Bank of England are **** scared of a resection  :p

Rarely has a typo been so appropriate.

[moley]

The pound has been running at around $1.42 for a few weeks now and is currently at just under $1.37, so it's about 4% down on last week. The price of crude oil also dropped yesterday by 5%.

[lol-lol]

Here you go.  Going to be an interesting week next week.  Decisions whether to dump stock out of customs warehouse in this last week in June or in July before the August exchange rates hit.

 

 

http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/OIL-GBP-history.html

 

 

 

[lol-lol]

Is diesel getting more expensive suddenly?

 

As some know petrol often comes from the North Sea but diesel is more likely to need importing so is it the much weaker value of the GBP against USD that is starting to hit diesel prices????

[Steven2016]

Pay 1.12 for a litre of diesel

[lol-lol]

Pay 1.12 for a litre of diesel

 

Just noticing, when a week or two ago diesel was a penny a litre cheaper and most fuel stations that it now is a penny or two pence a litre more than petrol 113 p/l I think locally in Worcs. 

[lol-lol]

Confirmed by Thisismoney...   (prices continue to rise at about 1.5 pence per litre per month but no brexit shock yet a price of crude stay on the low side, risen £5 a tankful since March).

 

 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-3673981/Petrol-prices-nudge-higher-fourth-month-row-June.html

 

No Brexit backlash at the pumps yet: Fuel prices accelerate for fourth month in a row - but not as fast as forecast

•  
• Diesel and unleaded up 1.5p in June according to the RAC.  
• Smaller rises than predicted thanks to oil prices falling last month. RAC believes Brexit will not have 'significant impact' on fuel prices.  The average price of petrol and diesel has risen above 112p per litre in June - some 10p a litre more than it was in March, according to the latest monthly report from the RAC.

 

Both fuel types saw an extra 1.5p a litre added in the last month the motoring organisation says, but that doesn't mean we are feeling the forecast Brexit effect yet.  The price of oil dropped six per cent during June, softening the impact of the devalued pound on the back of the Brexit vote. If oil prices hadn't fallen, there could have been some steep rises at the pumps, with sterling crumbling against the dollar. 

 

Back in February, The Express reported on the AA suggesting that petrol prices could go up by nearly 19 pence per litre in the event of a Brexit vote. With that in mind, seeing an increase of just two pence after the country voted “out” doesn’t seem too bad.

Will fuel prices rise more?

While small price increases seem likely again for the month of July, the news generally seems quite positive. The RAC have stated that petrol prices seem to be “weathering the Brexit storm,” and that we won’t see the “shock rise some were predicting.”

While Sterling is floundering at the time of writing (bad news with oil priced in Dollars), the oil price has taken a knock in the aftermath of Britain’s out vote, and the two factors have served to rather efficiently cancel each other out.

 

While we’d obviously rather see no price rises at all, “worst case scenario” predictions made earlier this year suggested we could now be paying as much for fuel as we were back in 2014 – that’s not happened – and that’s a good thing.

Edited 11 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

But how are we going to complete if our cars attract 10% duty going in to Europe as the standard customs duty rate for a non-EU, non-GSP, non-EUR1 country (we may get an FTA with the EU after 4 to 9 years of negotiation which is the range of times FTAs take).

 

Transports cost are the average household largest outoging and with the GBP already 10% weaker against the Euro and the USD over the last 12 months and predicted by IMF, PwC etc to fall another 10-15% if Brexit occurs then both fuel and new cars will be much more expensive.

 

To those of us who do 45K miles a year and buy a car every 18 months this will be a huge greater living cost. £1.30 a litre could well be here by the end of year if things unfold badly.    

 

The EU cars will cost 10% more as we'll return the car.

 

You lose out, but frankly if you're doing 45k a year a company is paying for your car.

UK cars will be relatively cheaper to buy.

 

As for the doom. If things don't go badly it might not be £1.30 a litre, plus we can always play around with taxes to fix that.

 

For example we could drop some taxes, and then charge a lorry tax which must be applied to each vehicle. This could be used to reduce taxes on fuel, meaning companies based here and who fill up here would make a saving equal to the tax increase.

 

Only those coming from elsewhere who fill up outside of the UK would see an increase, meaning they finally have to pay to drive on our roads and contribute towards maintaining them.

You could even include an insurance check and vehicle check as part of getting the disk.

 

 

There are many ways of looking at things, but doom the world is over, is not the only one.

Yes some things can get bad, but we can do other things to fix that.

 

For example, the 15% corporate tax rate (Maybe we should go to 12% to be lowest in europe) would probably offset the extra costs of trading with the EU under WTO.

That would mean that UK companies (Haulage for example) could afford to have a lower amount of profit on a sale, because the tax would also be lower, leaving the same money after. (Not saying it would happen, just they could)

[lol-lol]

The EU cars will cost 10% more as we'll return the car.  You lose out, but frankly if you're doing 45k a year a company is paying for your car.  UK cars will be relatively cheaper to buy.

As for the doom. If things don't go badly it might not be £1.30 a litre, plus we can always play around with taxes to fix that.

For example we could drop some taxes, and then charge a lorry tax which must be applied to each vehicle. This could be used to reduce taxes on fuel, meaning companies based here and who fill up here would make a saving equal to the tax increase.

Only those coming from elsewhere who fill up outside of the UK would see an increase, meaning they finally have to pay to drive on our roads and contribute towards maintaining them.

You could even include an insurance check and vehicle check as part of getting the disk.

There are many ways of looking at things, but doom the world is over, is not the only one.

Yes some things can get bad, but we can do other things to fix that.

For example, the 15% corporate tax rate (Maybe we should go to 12% to be lowest in europe) would probably offset the extra costs of trading with the EU under WTO.

That would mean that UK companies (Haulage for example) could afford to have a lower amount of profit on a sale, because the tax would also be lower, leaving the same money after. (Not saying it would happen, just they could)

 

Goods with very fine margins will feel almost the full weight of the the double whammy of the British currency falls and if we also adopt the WTO MFN rates which the remainder of the EU is required to implement against the UK in the absences of an FTA.    The UK can charge what it likes on import tariffs within the range of zero and the MFN rate (for example 12% for most clothing, 10% for cars.  Some countries ie Middle East ones kkeep it nice and simply with 5% for almost everything which there is something to be said for and I would not have to spend so much time trying to get advantageous classification of goods in lower tariffed headings.

 

Fuel (most of it) is fortunately zero rated for customs duty so only the excise duties to worry about but these commodities are almost always priced in USDs where as European cars are in EURs and Japanese ones in Yen, now that is a currency, even more than the USD that has climbed massively against the GBP.   Fuel £1.20 by September and perhaps £1.25 by the end of the year looking entirely possible with continued uncertainty about BREXIT timetable.  Even cars made in UK can be affected by continued weakness in GBP against EUR due to components mostly priced in Euros.

 

Measures I isolate myself against these economic ills.  Firstly thankful to have a company fuel card for work and private mileage so only hit by 40% of the price rise.  Very happy with my very cheap but actually remarkable good Dacia/Renault which is cheap to buy and economical.  I get a £9k pa car allowance but that is also taxed at 40% (unless one can push some of it from, PAYE and through to pension and then withdraw tax free of course). Just drive more economically and use less fuel and cover less distance  ie use less motorways, more A roads which are more direct!              

Edited 11 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

The way you post anyone would think you were shorting on the currency and the economy.

[lol-lol]

The way you post anyone would think you were shorting on the currency and the economy.

Some effective shorts to balance out these downturns in equities. Some guys i work with lost a quarter to a third of their pension pot between 2007-2009 so makes sense to put a goodly portion of pension funds in to very secure funds even if yield is zero. Aim is to avoid the 40% income tax rate and have security and the strong up tick in international bonds nominated in a basket on dollar euro and yen is a sweetener against the incomprehensible BREXIT decesion.

[Kandy]

I love your posts lol, never has anyone posted so much technical nonsense (financial and environmental) without so obviously having not the tiniest clue what they are talking about. You're always good for a giggle.

 

As for Brexit - would you rather be afloat in a lifeboat, or shackled to the deck of a sinking ship, neither situation is desirable, but 1 is clearly preferable?