EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[lol-lol]

the women who offer me 'services' don't pay tax anyway lol

 

Just come back from Holland the industry there do pay taxes and also on the sale of wacky backy too.  To legalise and control/tax or keep illegal and allow criminals to profit and people to be exploited.  

 

Some things like electricity can be taxed for import duties when we still import from France from 2019 there will be import taxes to pay, perhaps another reason Con government went for Hinkley C ie either pay Électricité du France by the kilowatt/hour or to build a new PWR nuclear station or three.   

[theezenutz]

Just come back from Holland the industry there do pay taxes and also on the sale of wacky backy too. To legalise and control/tax or keep illegal and allow criminals to profit and people to be exploited.

They seem to have it pretty well sorted. I didn't see any trouble over there, no drunken obnoxious numpty's, very little police presence, you need to provide I.d. For purchase of cannabis. It remarkably different to what we have in this country although that may well change in the near future. Even the u.s is jumping on board with states allowing it for medical use of which it has numerous benefits.

I loved it it, recommend anyone to go visit it has something for everyone and the architecture is just stunning.

Edited 16 September, 2016 by theezenutz

[cheezemonkhai]

The green light district is a **** hole full of foreign tourists getting stoned.

The red light district is a tourist trap and for show (The real one is a short walk away)

 

I wouldn't judge it without seeing the real situation.

 

I don't say you should legalise either, but at the same time, I do sometimes wonder if it would be better regulated and taxed to pay for treatment and enforcement rather than all under hand.

[theezenutz]

Didn't come across a place called the green light district, must have been hidden away somewhere as I covered quite a bit of ground. The red light district was interesting, not my cup of tea but I enjoyed walking around doing a bit of window shopping

Imo we should absolutely legalise it how can you put someone in prison in one state then in the next one allow someone to use for medical reasons? So what is it a gateway drug or a medicinal plant?

What does making it illegal achieve? In my experience very little apart from the fact that revenue is earned by dealers and quality questionable.

It's not about allowing a child to smoke because they already can if they want to it's about allowing grown adults to make their own decisions in life.

Edited 16 September, 2016 by theezenutz

[lol-lol]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-16/hammond-said-to-be-ready-to-ditch-single-market-access-on-brexit

 

British pounds dives on these comments.....   http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR

 

Hammond Said to Be Ready to Ditch Single-Market Access on Brexit

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is ready to accept that Britain may have to give up membership of the European Union’s single market -- and U.K. banks’ crucial access to clients on the continent -- to achieve the immigration restrictions that voters have demanded, according to two officials familiar with his thinking.   With the government staking its credibility on regaining control over U.K. borders after the June 23 Brexit vote, Hammond considers it unrealistic to expect actual membership of the single market after Britain leaves the EU, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions were private. Instead, Treasury staff are drawing up their own blueprint which they hope will allow Britain’s financial services firms to retain similar levels of access to Europe, the officials said.  Hammond’s plan hinges on the argument he set out earlier this month that London as a financial center is too valuable for the EU to jeopardize, since many European companies use its markets to raise capital.  “I genuinely believe London delivers not only for the U.K., but the European Union as a whole,”  Hammond told a House of Lords Committee on Sept. 8. He has also said he wants to win “the best deal” for companies “including our world leading financial services industry.”  The chancellor, who was in favor of leaving the EU before the referendum, has been meeting senior bankers in recent weeks to discuss his plans and is trying to convince them that he can match the benefits of full single market access, the officials said. Some sectors of the industry remain much more concerned than others about the threat of losing their current privileges, according to one of the officials.

U.S. Banks

British access to the single market is of greater significance for global investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, which operate European business out of London and don’t have the same links to the continent as major European lenders such as Societe Generale SA and Deutsche Bank AG.  Under the existing EU rules, so-called banking passports allow lenders in the U.K. to provide services and raise funds in the rest of the EU, a crucial plank of business for many firms in the City of London. Executives from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS Group AG have warned that failure to maintain the status quo could force them to cut British jobs. U.K. banks are pushing British officials to look for a treaty on financial services with the European Union that would stand apart from membership of the trading bloc.  EU leaders including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have identified freedom of movement as a red line that will define negotiations for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc and insist that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won’t be allowed to pick and choose from the benefits of EU membership.  Some staff in the Treasury are concerned that two years -- the deadline for leaving the EU once Britain starts the process -- won’t leave enough time to draft new rules, one of the official said.

Customs Union

Bankers are lobbying the government to secure a stop-gap deal that will guarantee them similar provisions to those they enjoy now if there is a gap between the U.K. leaving the EU and agreeing a new free trade accord.  “Our No. 1 message is that if there is going to be a change we need a sensible period of transition,” Robert Rooney, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley International, said in an interview this week.  There are also concerns about the consequences of Britain potentially exiting the EU customs union. Trade Secretary Liam Fox and Brexit Secretary David Davis are in favor of abandoning that agreement before the Brexit process even starts to give them a freer hand to negotiate with other countries, according to one of the officials. Membership of the customs union could impair Britain’s ability to secure trade agreements because the EU brokers external tariffs and trade deals on behalf of its members.

Edited 16 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

As the EU meet yet again without the UK present so that they can discuss BREXIT & the EU without the UK,

& this is without the UK having invoked Article 50, it surely must be time to invoke Article 50.

[@Lee]

As the EU meet yet again without the UK present so that they can discuss BREXIT & the EU without the UK,

& this is without the UK having invoked Article 50, it surely must be time to invoke Article 50.

I thought that was the EU plan from the start; whilst the UK has voted to leave the UK don't get a say in any discussions at the EU Parliament.

We knew this would be the case since 24th of June.

[Ootohere]

It might be a plan of the EU, but does that mean it is in the rules?  There are plenty of places, organisations, where members may not participate or talk but can be present to witness what is being discussed or decided.  So does the UK get the minutes of the sat at  the table talks?

The scheming and forward planning on negotiations which can not be held supposedly until after Article 50 is invoked.

 

The UK is as full a member as it always has been.  Who exactly have the UK told that they are leaving and in what time scale.

Or does it all just get made up as it goes along.

 

The UK still pays its money, gets its rebates and has not Invoked Article 50.

Edited 16 September, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[moley]

I thought that was the EU plan from the start; whilst the UK has voted to leave the UK don't get a say in any discussions at the EU Parliament.

We knew this would be the case since 24th of June.

If this is the case then the EU is breaking EU rules. The UK has to invoke article 50 before any discussions can take place. 

[lol-lol]

I have to say I like the A380, as you don't have to be quite so squashed in.

The thing however is for the A380 to work, you really to need to just use them on hub to hub flights, with smaller planes distributing the groups to regions.

 

Amazed how big Schiphol has got compared to Heathrow.  Here is a 500 ton A380 cross the road bridge....

 

Apparently, asking my contacts on the airfreight side, and they were saying that a recent 15% improvement in the range of the A320 and 737s mean that they can do transatlantic hence planes like the A380, 787, 757 etc less needed. 

Edited 17 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

New level for pound appears to be 1.3 against USD, interesting comment that US inflation figures may start the US raising interest rates sooner rather than later that should affect currency rates of exchange further.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/5470-gbp-to-usd-falls-on-us-inflation-data

[cheezemonkhai]

Visegrad Group of EU states 'could veto Brexit deal' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396805

Well that makes a pull right out, then negotiate with a few select countries sooner more likely.

[gadgetman]

Visegrad Group of EU states 'could veto Brexit deal' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37396805

Well that makes a pull right out, then negotiate with a few select countries sooner more likely.

But we cannot deal with separate eu countries unless they also leave.

[cheezemonkhai]

But we cannot deal with separate eu countries unless they also leave.

I didn't mean EU countries, we have a defecit there.

However even with EU countries, that assumes everyone follows the rules.

I get the impression that more and more, the EU is starting to fall apart.

You have Junker and Schultz saying more EU, lets have an EU army, lets have more.

They seem to have forgotten the large hole in their new budget.

You have donald tusk being pragmatic about the need to change.

You have the V4 demanding control over migrants, but they will not let a deal go through which stops their people working in the UK and treated as equals. Read we want control but you cant have it.

Groups are expressing their upset at losing a pragmatist, others are going hardline more EU, others have their head in the sand and others want national states and just the benefits.

This talk wasn't supposed to be about brexit, but that seems to what it was about.

Other countries don't want more EU and while they were sat quietly behind britain, what will happen next.

The EU is getting more protectionist. German population is out in force against TTIP and the canadian trade deal too.

I don't think any deal is possible as countries are all at odds.

The east and centre call the west out of touch. It's not pretty.

There were holes in the ship EU and it looks like brexit stuck a large hole just above the waterline.

So they now can come into port for a refit and repairs (eg change) or plough on at sea (more Europe) at which point they're going down.

I think we are just the first to leave and that it will end up with the EU dead and a looser trading block.

Edited 18 September, 2016 by cheezemonkhai

[lol-lol]

Oops.....

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-20/brexit-battered-pound-emerges-as-favored-short-before-fed

 

Brexit-Battered Pound Emerges as Favored Short Before Fed

• EU leaders warn U.K. of consequences of leaving bloc
• Sterling is the day’s worst performer among G-10 currencies

The pound fell to a one-month low as European Union leaders hardened their rhetoric over the consequences for Britain of leaving the trading bloc. Sterling was the worst performer among its Group-of-10 peers after Czech State Secretary for EU Affairs Tomas Prouza said late Monday that the U.K. has “zero chance” of clinching an exit deal with both immigration curbs and free-market access. He’s the latest in a string of central and eastern European leaders to issue such warnings to Britain in the hope of maintaining their citizens’ ability to work in the country.

 

 

The U.K. currency was also undermined as traders used it as a way of betting on the Federal Reserve striking a hawkish tone when it announces its policy decision on Wednesday, according to Petr Krpata a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Groep NV.    “The seemingly tough position from CEE countries on the terms of Brexit, namely the migration issue,” together with the lack of certainty over when the U.K. will trigger the formal exit process, is hurting the pound, said London-based Krpata. Also, sterling “could be a good vehicle to position for a potential hawkish surprise from the Fed,” in which case it may decline to $1.28, he said.  The pound dropped 0.5 percent to $1.2967 as of 4:55 p.m. London time, after touching the lowest level since Aug. 16. Sterling fell for the past two weeks versus the dollar, after a three-week winning run. Britain’s currency slipped 0.5 percent to 86.16 pence per euro, also reaching the weakest in about a month.

Edited 20 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

We were much lower a few years back.

Sorry to everyone else, but stop being such a sensationalist and negative <insert your expletive of choice here>.

We all know you're a super high paid, tax efficient one.

We bow to your skill, now if you could talk things down elsewhere that'd be great.

Maybe post about how the EU is tearing itself apart or something more useful.

I get the impression you are shorting on the gbp, so all bad news is good for you.

Anyway, i'm bored of mr Britain is doomed, so i intend to make a success without your bad news. Toodle pip old chap!

[lol-lol]

We were much lower a few years back.   Sorry to everyone else, but stop being such a sensationalist and negative <insert your expletive of choice here>.  We all know you're a super high paid, tax efficient one.  We bow to your skill, now if you could talk things down elsewhere that'd be great.  Maybe post about how the EU is tearing itself apart or something more useful.  I get the impression you are shorting on the gbp, so all bad news is good for you.  Anyway, i'm bored of mr Britain is doomed, so i intend to make a success without your bad news. Toodle pip old chap!

 

Wrong.  

 

For last 3 decades it has been  ie since Maggie issues in the mid 1980s, the USD-GBP rate is currently worse than it has been for a generation and about 85% of our imports are in USDs.

 

I am not negative I am a realist dealing with consequences of the BREXIT vote.

 

Having some equity, such as pension, in international bonds/currency is just good risk offsetting.

 

Britain, possibly without Scotland, will continue trading and a few companies should do well with the weaker currency.

 

Most UK Citizens will clearly experience higher inflation and many other factors (say BoE) but "at least" we will have sovereign control of our borders which was difficult to do when I was a Customs Officer in 1992, when the Single Market was formed, as we seen now it is.    

Edited 20 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[theezenutz]

Markets have always been volatile with or without brexit. It was only a few years ago that the yanks were concerned with the pound being 2 to 1 on the dollar.

Now it's swung the other way and soon it will fluctuate again.

I too am a realist and whilst I don't pretend to understand international currency's neither am I that concerned today.

[lol-lol]

Markets have always been volatile with or without brexit. It was only a few years ago that the yanks were concerned with the pound being 2 to 1 on the dollar.  Now it's swung the other way and soon it will fluctuate again.   I too am a realist and whilst I don't pretend to understand international currency's neither am I that concerned today.

 

As long as someone is inflation proof or can adapt, or is in an industry that thrives on exporting without importing, the currency fall might not be such an issue.   To me it is a headache as I need to ensure clients can get their goods thru customs, the taxes are paid which is more difficult with weaker UK exchange rate.  I also want my company to do well so we get a good above inflation pay rise plus a nice end of year bonus which the industry historically does as part of its package.

 

I am just a worrier as it befalls to me to Analyse this and plan and it has been challenging since the BREXIT but also since the EU Union Customs Code also came in from May 2016 which added more procedures, I will not miss that when we pull out in 2019.  It is not my concerns ringing the warning bell but notables like the OECD......

 

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-oecd-downgrades-2017-gdp-forecast-by-1-10586952

 

UK economy: OECD downgrades 2017 GDP forecast by 1%

The updated economic projections reflect a potential impact from the Brexit vote and wider global weaknesses.

 

12:06, UK,Wednesday 21 September 2016

Image Caption:The OECD says the UK's vote to leave the EU in June has contributed to global economic uncertainty

A closely-watched forecast has slashed its prediction for UK economic growth next year by a full percentage point.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cited uncertainty following the UK's Brexit vote and wider global growth woes for its assessment.

It was released as a separate study by the Office for National Statistics suggested the referendum result had not had a major effect on the UK economy so far.

Its chief economist, Joe Grice, said: "The index of services published soon and the preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP, published at the end of October, will add significantly to the evidence."

The OECD's update to its growth projections had UK GDP rising by 1.8% in 2016 - a slight improvement on its last forecast - but growth tumbling to 1% in 2017.

Edited 21 September, 2016 by lol-lol

[theezenutz]

You could make an argument that it is those that have a vested interest in markets and profit are the ones who are causing the problems.

The average man on the street which is the vast majority are not really interested in international trade and profit making, they just want to earn a fair wage for a fair days work.

All these so called financial experts who are happy to pipe up now where were they in 2008?

[trundlenut]

You could make an argument that it is those that have a vested interest in markets and profit are the ones who are causing the problems.

The average man on the street which is the vast majority are not really interested in international trade and profit making, they just want to earn a fair wage for a fair days work.

All these so called financial experts who are happy to pipe up now where were they in 2008?

But the wages of the average man on the street are dependent on international trade now and probably have been for over 200 years if not a lot longer.

[theezenutz]

That is the effect not the cause the average man goes along with the market conditions they do no move millions or billions around the world nor do they hire army's of lawyers and accountants to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

[trundlenut]

That is the effect not the cause the average man goes along with the market conditions they do no move millions or billions around the world nor do they hire army's of lawyers and accountants to avoid paying their fair share of taxes.

And all the more reason to care. It doesn't absolve you of everything.

[theezenutz]

I care I just don't care about people making millions or billions. I am a normal person like the majority of people in any country.

I have nothing to be absolved from my conscience is very clear.

[Laurie61]

 

 It is not my concerns ringing the warning bell but notables like the OECD......

 

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-oecd-downgrades-2017-gdp-forecast-by-1-10586952

 

 

 

 

You have to worry about bodies like OECD when they were so wide of the mark with their last predictions. ?

 

From OECD on 1 June.

 

The British economy would suffer 'a large negative shock' if voters back Brexit in June's referendum, the OECD said in a grim verdict on Britain's economic future outside the EU published in its latest global economic outlook.

 

Brexit would cost each worker in the UK £3,200 a year by 2030 and send economic shockwaves across the world, an alarming report by a leading international institution warned today.

 

Under a more pessimistic scenario, the cost of leaving would be even higher - rising to the equivalent of £5,000 per household, according to the organisation.

 

The Paris-based organisation also said Britain quitting the EU would spark turmoil in world stock markets. 

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3619369/Brexit-send-economic-shockwaves-global-economy-substantially-warns-OECD.html