EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[mannyo]

We've committed to leave the EU notbthe single market. Also showing you're happy to flout international law is unlikely to help you find new trading partners.

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Nobody has committed to anything. The UK had a non legally binding referendum, in effect they asked the public what they would prefer. There is nothing to stop the next prime minister saying that she has decided that as the referendum was so close, further discussions were needed and that for now we will remain in the EU.

 

Until Article 50 is invoked which makes it legally binding then nothing should be taken for granted. That could be later this year, next year or just before the next scheduled general election in 2020 or even never.

Edited 8 July, 2016 by mannyo

[cheezemonkhai]

Nope, not until we leave and WTO rules apply.

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Hate to say it, but we're a sovereign state, we can do what the heck we like.

If some EU countries don't want to talk to us until A50 is done, that's fine.

If the EU tries to bully the RotW into not talking to us, then again we're better off out.

What's all this not allowed to about. The EU don't rule us, we're not a subservient.

The remain side argued that the EU didn't control our laws.

So from the above who can do what, it sounds like they do.

The leave side argues things that were not quite true too.

Long and short, turns out they're all full of cr*p.

Edited 8 July, 2016 by cheezemonkhai

[trundlenut]

Hate to say it, but we're a sovereign state, we can do what the heck we like.

If some EU countries don't want to talk to us until A50 is done, that's fine.

If the EU tries to bully the RotW into not talking to us, then again we're better off out.

What's all this not allowed to about. The EU don't rule us, we're not a subservient.

So why wait, let's start now. We don't have invoke article 50 or even involve the EU to leave, we just repeal the European Communities act of 1979 and we're out.

Remember these are the people we going to be depending on for trade...

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[cheezemonkhai]

So why wait, let's start now. We don't have invoke article 50 or even involve the EU to leave, we just repeal the European Communities act of 1979 and we're out.

Remember these are the people we going to be depending on for trade...

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These are the people who are currently trying to threaten us and punish us for defying their greater wisdom.

 

Seriously, if people in this country think we are a servant to the EU bureaucrats, then we as a country need to grow some.

If we have our own trade deals when we go into trade talks with the EU, then we're in a much stronger position to negotiate.

They know this, which is why they want us to come in with a begging bowl.

 

We might not be Russia, but you can see how well the rest of the EU was willing to stand up to Putin.

I'm not saying we should be putin, but the EU likes to make noise then back down.

 

The French break EU rules all the time, the Italians are about to break them on state support for their banks, by just handing over money.

 

We do not depend on the EU for trade, we can trade with the rest of the world. This includes the commonwealth.

Actually if we started trading properly with African countries, with India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Australia, Canada and NZ things would pick up quite nicely in the world.

 

EU trade subsidies on agriculture keep africa down, for example.

Actually if the commonwealth started up their own free trade area, with some rules on corruption and not too much else, I think people might realise you just need a group of countries who want to work together.

 

If the UK had the commonwealth free trade group, then actually we'd be in a much stronger position to negotiate with the EU.

 

Oh so you don't want us to trade with you without free movement of everyone, not just labour. OK we can do that if you do the same for the commonwealth countries.

Oh what's that, you don't want to? Oh well there you see, maybe we should come to a compromise. Oh yes, that's a good idea.

 

Sitting here pretending the EU is the only trading block in the world is doing ourself a disservice.

We buy more from the EU than they buy from us.

Frankly, I like europe, but the EU as it stands is going a bit bully boy, and I feel I'd rather have a commonwealth free trade agreement.

[trundlenut]

These are the people who are currently trying to threaten us and punish us for defying their greater wisdom.

Seriously, if people in this country think we are a servant to the EU bureaucrats, then we as a country need to grow some.

If we have our own trade deals when we go into trade talks with the EU, then we're in a much stronger position to negotiate.

They know this, which is why they want us to come in with a begging bowl.

We might not be Russia, but you can see how well the rest of the EU was willing to stand up to Putin.

I'm not saying we should be putin, but the EU likes to make noise then back down.

The French break EU rules all the time, the Italians are about to break them on state support for their banks, by just handing over money.

We do not depend on the EU for trade, we can trade with the rest of the world. This includes the commonwealth.

Actually if we started trading properly with African countries, with India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Australia, Canada and NZ things would pick up quite nicely in the world.

EU trade subsidies on agriculture keep africa down, for example.

Actually if the commonwealth started up their own free trade area, with some rules on corruption and not too much else, I think people might realise you just need a group of countries who want to work together.

If the UK had the commonwealth free trade group, then actually we'd be in a much stronger position to negotiate with the EU.

Oh so you don't want us to trade with you without free movement of everyone, not just labour. OK we can do that if you do the same for the commonwealth countries.

Oh what's that, you don't want to? Oh well there you see, maybe we should come to a compromise. Oh yes, that's a good idea.

Sitting here pretending the EU is the only trading block in the world is doing ourself a disservice.

We buy more from the EU than they buy from us.

Frankly, I like europe, but the EU as it stands is going a bit bully boy, and I feel I'd rather have a commonwealth free trade agreement.

Unfortunately this is not the path we started down 10-15 years ago. There is merit in your argument but this is international trade not a light switch. We can just flick it and change everything. We have to keep trading with Europe until we can sort something else out. We have to have something which makes us attractive to third parties.

Think Honda, Toyota, Nissan. Why they have they invested here? What will make them continue investing here?

The EU is a massive trading block and the BRIC lot are not doing nearly as well as they were before.

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[@Lee]

Hislop nails it

 

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/751182540925341697

[cheezemonkhai]

Unfortunately this is not the path we started down 10-15 years ago. There is merit in your argument but this is international trade not a light switch. We can just flick it and change everything. We have to keep trading with Europe until we can sort something else out. We have to have something which makes us attractive to third parties.

Think Honda, Toyota, Nissan. Why they have they invested here? What will make them continue investing here?

The EU is a massive trading block and the BRIC lot are not doing nearly as well as they were before.

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But this is the wonderful thing about not being in the Euro.

 

The GBP goes down vs other currencies, so the cost of labour is lower here and the cost of finished goods is lower here.

When other currencies are stronger, exporting a car that was built in GBP means that car is cheaper to buy.

 

I accept it is not just a light switch; but please explain to me, why as a sovereign nation, we have to not negotiate any trade deals until the EU tells us we can.

We can negotiation with the rest of the world and have them come into force the day we leave the EU.

 

Herr Junker has banned anyone in the EU from negotiating with us before article 50 and wants to punish the UK for leaving paradise, so nobody else tries to too.

Countries will always act in their national interest at some point, because frankly if they don't they get voted out for somebody who will.

 

To be honest the way some EU politicians are banging on about the Uk and demanding and telling us what we can and can't do, is really an eye opener.

 

 

 

Hislop nails it

 

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/751182540925341697

 

 

To be fair, the audience was in Brighton (A pro EU area) and while hislop is indeed correct on people being heard, it doesn't mean they block everything.

I think if you'd done the same panel in say a welsh mining village or some northern towns, people may have reacted differently.

 

Not saying either is right/wrong, just saying.

Edited 8 July, 2016 by cheezemonkhai

[gadgetman]

These are the people who are currently trying to threaten us and punish us for defying their greater wisdom.

Seriously, if people in this country think we are a servant to the EU bureaucrats, then we as a country need to grow some.

If we have our own trade deals when we go into trade talks with the EU, then we're in a much stronger position to negotiate.

They know this, which is why they want us to come in with a begging bowl.

We might not be Russia, but you can see how well the rest of the EU was willing to stand up to Putin.

I'm not saying we should be putin, but the EU likes to make noise then back down.

The French break EU rules all the time, the Italians are about to break them on state support for their banks, by just handing over money.

We do not depend on the EU for trade, we can trade with the rest of the world. This includes the commonwealth.

Actually if we started trading properly with African countries, with India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Australia, Canada and NZ things would pick up quite nicely in the world.

EU trade subsidies on agriculture keep africa down, for example.

Actually if the commonwealth started up their own free trade area, with some rules on corruption and not too much else, I think people might realise you just need a group of countries who want to work together.

If the UK had the commonwealth free trade group, then actually we'd be in a much stronger position to negotiate with the EU.

Oh so you don't want us to trade with you without free movement of everyone, not just labour. OK we can do that if you do the same for the commonwealth countries.

Oh what's that, you don't want to? Oh well there you see, maybe we should come to a compromise. Oh yes, that's a good idea.

Sitting here pretending the EU is the only trading block in the world is doing ourself a disservice.

We buy more from the EU than they buy from us.

Frankly, I like europe, but the EU as it stands is going a bit bully boy, and I feel I'd rather have a commonwealth free trade agreement.

If we don't honour treating agreements we've signed up to then it just says that we have no respect for honouring our side of any agreements we've made.

80% of our trade with the EU is in services or financial. That's a massive hit to swallow if we did decide to stick 2 fingers up to our obligations. So how does that strengthen a negotiation position?

EU trade negotiations with the rest of the world have been on going for some time. The most advanced being Canada, America & Aus/NZ. And these have been on going for between 5 & 10 years!

That's a lot of uncertainty. Companies are already under pressure from shareholders to make a decision as it costs them in profits & dividends. Some may soon start biting the bullet even without article 50 being invoked (considering May & Leadsom both say they'll honour it).

[essexalan]

If we don't honour treating agreements we've signed up to then it just says that we have no respect for honouring our side of any agreements we've made.

80% of our trade with the EU is in services or financial. That's a massive hit to swallow if we did decide to stick 2 fingers up to our obligations. So how does that strengthen a negotiation position?

EU trade negotiations with the rest of the world have been on going for some time. The most advanced being Canada, America & Aus/NZ. And these have been on going for between 5 & 10 years!

That's a lot of uncertainty. Companies are already under pressure from shareholders to make a decision as it costs them in profits & dividends. Some may soon start biting the bullet even without article 50 being invoked (considering May & Leadsom both say they'll honour it).

Have to agree with the honouring trade agreements but it all depends on how the trade discussions go. Suggest you read this regarding trade goods versus services http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-eu-trade-is-vital-for-britain-s-economy-in-two-charts-a7126676.html 

Not sure where you get 80% from but at least we get a surplus from services. 

EU negotiations between the EU and a number of countries are indeed ongoing and I would expect the UK to be used as a bit of a pawn in some of them. For example the EU/Japan trade negotiations could mean that Japan pulls production of all cars in the UK and moves it to the EU. Any attempts by the EU to insert clauses which would block the UK from making trade deals with other countries would mean game on and blow the rules. We shall have to wait and see.

[Ootohere]

I was listening to Retail Experts on the radio today while stuck in gridlock traffic.

 

They were saying how people will not do without cars in the UK if they have a car, and cars need renewed especially when they are used for Business & work.

So cars will keep being bought.  Maybe people will go for better value, better economy and better reputations.

They will buy what they know and trust, so some manufacturers selling in the UK better get their reputation back and stop 

playing up with customers they have cheated and lied to recently.

[lol-lol]

Pound Overtakes Argentine Peso to Become 2016’s Worst Performer

 

(Well done Brexiteers.  Inflation; here it comes). 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/pound-overtakes-argentine-peso-to-become-2016-s-worst-performer

• Sterling posts a third week of declines on Brexit vote
• Currency to fall ‘considerably further,’ SocGen’s Juckes says

The pound posted a third week of declines spurred by the Brexit vote, winning itself the title of 2016’s worst performer among major currencies.Sterling’s rally on Friday barely dented its 2.7 percent slide versus the dollar in the preceding four days. The U.K. currency this week overtook the Argentine peso as the biggest loser versus the dollar among 31 major peers in 2016 as investors continued to digest the fallout from the June 23 referendum decision to leave the European Union.

 

Edited 8 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[gadgetman]

Not sure where you get 80% from but at least we get a surplus from services.

Was a figure I thought I'd recalled correctly from recent articles.

But interesting how we could lose a deal involving services with the EU when it's one of our important trading areas with the EU.

[SkodaVRS1963]

I won't swear SkodavRS1963, I have given you the benefit of the doubt a few times but this just shows it as it is, your argument is not that strong really in view of reality

 

Is this an(other) example of Leavers not doing their research?

 

Not in the least; I'm well aware of what Farage said.

 

There's a world of difference between saying something and then not doing it because you have no legal basis.

[essexalan]

Was a figure I thought I'd recalled correctly from recent articles.

But interesting how we could lose a deal involving services with the EU when it's one of our important trading areas with the EU.

As only 48% of our goods and 40% of our service trading are with the EU then there is a World outside the EU we are already dealing with. EU are losing their second largest economy so their desirability as a trading partner will take a big hit. Tata's decision could be important to both the steel industry and JLR.

Cancel Trident totally and build fishery protection vessels, in British yards of course, we will need them when we get our territorial waters back.

[cheezemonkhai]

To be honest made in the UK include Nissan, Honda, JLR.

 

Price plays a factor too.

Plus you won't be so keen to be on the PCP trick if it costs that much more.

 

As for our trade agreements in the EU, we're not breaking any, we're just having negotiations to come into place when we're out.

I'm really starting to hate all these UK are bad, EU are awesome types.

 

They're trying to punish us as an example. If they do that, then I suggest telling them we've still got our forefingers and letting them go forth and reproduce with themselves.

I just don't get where the we broke our rules bit comes from.

 

We're not allowed to negotiate our own trade deals that are active while in the EU.

We can negotiate them to kick off the day we exit. In fact I'd look badly on any country that didn't do this sort of planning.

[gadgetman]

To be honest made in the UK include Nissan, Honda, JLR.

They're here because we're in the EU, but not the euro zone. Once we're not in the EU, and those British made cars incur tariffs in their main market, they'll move as will many others.

It's not the UK is bad, EU is Fantastic. It's really not, but we're a lot more entwined financially that some realise, and others want to admit. It's why we'll see a number of big businesses close in the UK and move operations abroad. Jobs that wont be replaced easily so the tax payers will have to foot the bill for benefits.

Name countries doing well which aren't in a trading block? There are few if any left going it alone. Everyone is part of a trading block. Even the US these days links with others in the Americas.

Small business and the high street will take the hit hardest as always. The poorest areas of the country who elected to take control will simply see their predicament worsen as even eu project money vaporises & government hasn't the cash to match it.

I'll be amazed if any of that infamous £350m covers anything it already does - let alone finds its way to boost the NHS or anything else.

[SkodaVRS1963]

Seriously, if people in this country think we are a servant to the EU bureaucrats, then we as a country need to grow some.

 

Google "generation snowflake".

 

The UK has encouraged a jellyfish mentality for a number of years and now all those chickens are coming home to roost.

[Paul007]

May will probably bury it when she gets in.

[mender]

Not in the least; I'm well aware of what Farage said.

 

There's a world of difference between saying something and then not doing it because you have no legal basis.

Aah, is it another example of "saying something and not doing it" by the Leave campaign

 

Shock horror

[lol-lol]

They're here because we're in the EU, but not the euro zone. Once we're not in the EU, and those British made cars incur tariffs in their main market, they'll move as will many others.

It's not the UK is bad, EU is Fantastic. It's really not, but we're a lot more entwined financially that some realise, and others want to admit. It's why we'll see a number of big businesses close in the UK and move operations abroad. Jobs that wont be replaced easily so the tax payers will have to foot the bill for benefits.

Name countries doing well which aren't in a trading block? There are few if any left going it alone. Everyone is part of a trading block. Even the US these days links with others in the Americas.

Small business and the high street will take the hit hardest as always. The poorest areas of the country who elected to take control will simply see their predicament worsen as even eu project money vaporises & government hasn't the cash to match it.

I'll be amazed if any of that infamous £350m covers anything it already does - let alone finds its way to boost the NHS or anything else.

 

You are right there are almost no countries that are not in multiple trading agreements with China being the main one not due to its dominance.

 

Also every WTO member, and it is unimaginable that the UK leaves the WTO,has to give a zero rate to Least Developed countries like Bangladesh, who are the second biggest supplier of our clothes after China and then countries like India get partial relief under the General System of Preference (GSP).

 

The £350M a week was always a Red Herring to anyone with any depth of economic knowledge.  A part from huge funding that Cornwall, Northern Ireland and Wales get back from the EU, those areas being net beneficiaries, this relatively tiny figure of £350M is to be dwarfed by the increased tax take on imports by the rise in AD Valolem import taxes of customs duty and import VAT and VAT to the consumer caused by the 12% drop in the value of the British pound which is starting to feed through to High Street prices.

 

We will need a cut in VAT back down to 15% to try and keep inflation and prices down to levels which will not lead to big increases in Pensions (if/when it breaks the 2.5% per annum level)  and Public service pay linked to CPI further adding to the £1.7T debt that has grown up over the last few years from under £1T six years ago.

Edited 9 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

^^ Do you have your application in as a Special Adviser to Theresa May MP or Andrea Leadsom MP or the Daily Mail?

[lol-lol]

^^ Do you have your application in as a Special Adviser to Theresa May MP or Andrea Leadsom MP or the Daily Mail?

 

 

Nahh.  I have tended to work with HM Treasury rather than Home office although both working for UK Customs and international logistics we have to implement Export Controls on weapons and technology.

 

Sat on the Joint Customs Consultative Committee which works with the Government on Implementing of export and import controls and tariffs.  Still meet quite often with both BIS and HMRC over implementing their laws/regs etc.

 

Sounds like Andrea has put her foot in it big time saying about May not having any children and she has been scuppered by no less than the TImes ie a Murdoch instrument, circus games.   

Edited 9 July, 2016 by lol-lol

[SkodaVRS1963]

Aah, is it another example of "saying something and not doing it" by the Leave campaign

 

Shock horror

 

And one of the many, many scare tactics used by the Remain crowd was Cameron stating he'd trigger Article 50 immediately if he lost.

[@Lee]

Look, the public voted for Brexit, just learn to live with the fact that the referendum is done, Brexit won, and get on with doing the best we can with the situation. Sitting there digging your heels in and making life hard for the country as we move forward into a new European era doesn't help anyone.

 

If people put as much effort into getting on with stuff rather than complaining "we lost and we think we should've won", then we'd be heading forwards and upwards instead of marking time.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36742691

[lol-lol]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36742691

Spot on Private Eye maestro. The voice of reason in a sea of fools.