Is the game up for diesel engines in small cars?

According to Dr Scholz, before we see a switch to hybrid and electric cars in Skoda's heartland at the affordable end of the market there might be a swing away from diesel engines towards petrol. This would be driven by tough new Euro 6 European emissions standards due in 2014.

Full article can be found here http://cars.uk.msn.com/features/green-motoring/articles.aspx?cp-documentid=156896421

Yes, if they want to alienate customer like me doing 36,000 miles a year

I can see it happening. Both my wife and my Dad have swapped from diesel to petrol this year.

Euro 6 and Euro 7 will make diesel more expensive to buy, more expensive to service and more complex.

In contrast we have only just started on the direct injected, low pressure turbo petrol technology. The power outputs of the new units and economy is going through the roof. Vag say the new 1.6tsi is good for 300bhp which is astounding. Then there is talk of 800cc 3 pot turbos from Ford and Vag. Vag have even hinted at a turbo twin cylinder. If the power and economy is there the purchase price will be extremely cheap.

And in small cars that is what matters, if you can buy a petrol car with similar power as the diesel and with good economy for thousands less then the market wil drop out of the small car diesel market.

I do high miles too and have a big diesel saloon all paid for out of my own pocket. But if the economy gap was closed and I could save thousands on purchase price and servicing cost then I would consider petrol again.

But expensive large saloons can absorb the price of the euro 6 diesel costs easier than a budget supermini

Cheers

Lee

Cylinder shut off technology is on the way for VAG TSIs too. Will be interesting to see how much extra fuel they save.

I was told ages ago that diesel was all but dead thanks to these new regs. Don't get me wrong the days of a combustion engine are numbered too but there's plenty of life left in petrol yet.

Diesel will go back to being the preserve of large comercial vehicals if they keep going with these stupid euro emissions rules.

Leaving aside the whole man vrs global warming debate what euro cars produce compaired to the emissions of china's powerplants is statistically insignificant! So reducing an insignificant amount to and even less significant amount is IMHO pointless. Just costing us money.

Could push up the price of second hand small to medium diesel cars.

I do hope that Babs doesn't spot this thread!

My Dad and I swapped from diesel to petrol, not much difference really - however V-Power could do with being cheaper lol

Interesting thread. I've read the article. But my take on it is this. I disagree that petrol will be the fuel powering most cars in the future, but rather, it will be the other way round. Diesel will be the fuel of the future until electric and hydrogen become viable and cost effective, but that is years and years away in spite of all the hype. I base this on my knowledge of the motor industry particularly the R & D side of things with which I have always had close links (mostly in motorcycle engine research) and the statements made by the manufacturers about there engines. I think Dr Scholz is vastly overstating his case for the future of motoring. There's no doubt that turbo petrol engines will become much more common and further improve. That's great. But what ever you do to petrol engines, they are unlikely to come near to current diesel emissions and economy and offer the same power output into the bargain. They cannot defy the laws of physics regarding thermal efficiency. And it's this thermal efficiency and the development of new cleaner diesel fuels, along with some fantastic new diesel technology that will keep the diesel ahead. Currently, we are seeing just the early diesel technical innovations that gives us the cars we have today. Unlike petrol engines, diesels have been very much ignored over the decade for development. But just around the corner are diesel cars that will give todays performance with reduced emissions, particularly CO2 and 100mpg economy. After all, the new Greenlines can manage over 100mpg under certain driving conditions on the road, but wait till you see the next generation diesels. If you read the article it does say there are good savings to be had with current technology for diesels. And that's true, and with a few adjustments and attachments diesels will continue for as long as internal combustion engines are around. VAG and all the big manufacturers have all committed heavily to the diesel engine for the foreseeable future in terms of new technology and development regardless of Euro 6 & 7. So diesel heads like me don't have to worry. Just my two cents worth! Good ere innit!

This move from diesel to petrol, particularly for small engines, has been a VW move, and now with other engine manufacturers for several years now.

Direct injection and turbocharged petrol engines have closed the fuel consumption gap between the two fuel types.

Whilst the use of higher compression ratios in diesel makes them more fuel efficient for the same capacity their higher weight and that they occupy more engine bay space means that petrol spark ignition engines are seen as the future for small cars ie four persons in comfort will be petrol unless two stroke diesels or a similar technical quantum leap can adopted.

With cylinder cut offs, move to 3 and even 2 or 1 cylinder as the rest of the engine bay being taken electric power equipment cars will be very different but getting 100 mpg will be nice. Use of aluminium for body work etc will lighten the cars by 100 Kgs or so as with the new A6.

I do hope that Babs doesn't spot this thread!

Too late!

To be honest, I don't really see the point of small diesels; the extra they cost is massive as a percentage (compared to an equivalent petrol model), and most users who are doing the extra miles would rather have something more comfortable to do 25k+ a year in than a supermini!

My SWMBO has a 1.3 CDTi Corsa; she could have gotten a 1.4 16v petrol of the same mileage/age/spec for £1500 cheaper, but she was taken in by the high MPG and low tax!

Still would have done 40mpg around town, and 55mpg on a run, and would have been quieter (the Fiat engine is so noisy!).

Direct-injection and turbo technology has pushed petrol so far recently, and there's more to come. Whereas diesel technology has plateaued. Now that people are looking more towards particulates (which cause direct health risks) as opposed to CO2 (which does nothing...) you really need to be doing mega miles, outside of cities, for a diesel to be the best option.

VAG and all the big manufacturers have all committed heavily to the diesel engine for the foreseeable future in terms of new technology and development regardless of Euro 6 & 7. So diesel heads like me don't have to worry. Just my two cents worth! Good ere innit!

I don't disagree totaly the technology will come but it's at what price is the key question. Across vag there is roughly £1000 difference between similar bhp tdi and tsi. Some suggest a further £1k to £1.5k difference with increased servicing costs this may not happen for euro6 but certainly will for euro7.

These costs can be absorbed on a £25k+ Audi or VW but on a £10k Fabia? If these costs turn out to be fact then the small cheap diesel car will not exist.

Cheers

Lee

With cylinder cut offs, move to 3 and even 2 or 1 cylinder as the rest of the engine bay being taken electric power equipment cars will be very different but getting 100 mpg will be nice. Use of aluminium for body work etc will lighten the cars by 100 Kgs or so as with the new A6.

Cylinder shut off in diesels is coming in the future. Diesel engines are getting smaller and lighter yet more powerful and economical. Wait till you see the next gen diesel engines, they will be mind blowing. As you say, bodywork will no doubt get lighter. Be aware that VW sells more diesels than petrol cars, mostly. My VW dealer here in Colchester told me 9 out of 10 cars they sell are diesel. They have to order in petrol cars specially. The trend has been diesel over petrol for some years although petrol is enjoying a 'brief', in my opinion, renaissance with the TSI engines which the dealer acknowledged.

Direct-injection and turbo technology has pushed petrol so far recently, and there's more to come. Whereas diesel technology has plateaued. Now that people are looking more towards particulates (which cause direct health risks) as opposed to CO2 (which does nothing...) you really need to be doing mega miles, outside of cities, for a diesel to be the best option.

You are right Babs about petrol engine development, it's been good. But diesel development has not plateaued. Far from it. Many see it as still the only viable future for the internal combustion engine at every level. Euro 6 & 7 won't be a problem.There may be good improvements for petrol but the next leap for the diesel engine is going to be mega and will trounce the petrol engine once again. Particulates are not a problem for diesel engines now or for the future. But it's interesting that particulate matter for petrol engines is increasing. The higher the compression in petrol engines the more particulate matter that comes out. Higher compression dieselised petrol engines introduced by the Japanese with a compression ratio fo 13.1 produced so much lethal particulate matter that the USA banned them. So Mitsubushi sold them to us in Europe instead. Petrol particulate matter is much more dangerous than diesel particulate matter. What this means is that some petrol cars will require a particulate filter (PPF) to meet future regs.

I don't disagree totaly the technology will come but it's at what price is the key question. Across vag there is roughly £1000 difference between similar bhp tdi and tsi. Some suggest a further £1k to £1.5k difference with increased servicing costs this may not happen for euro6 but certainly will for euro7.

Cheers

Lee

There will always be a cost to meeting new regs and new tech costs too. But the petrol engine as we know it will continue to change too. And will cost a whole bunch more. It will not be immune to weight saving and new materials for bodywork. It probably won't be the engines that add so much extra cost in the longer term, it will be the bodywork as weight has to be saved. I'm currently working on a new diesel engine for motorcycles. It's at the design stage and won't be ready for tooling for experimental purpose for at least 18 months. But the company I am working for on this design is confident that it will break the mould and even diesel engine bikes will become mainstream in the not too distant future. Bikes at the moment only have to meet Euro 4, but we are working to specs for Euro 6 at the moment to make sure it complies. So far there are no problems envisaged.

Diesel powered bikes!? i've read a few home build threads on diesel bike engines in the past. and whilst AWESOME mpg figures seem achieveable all of the bikes lost there sport/speed potential. the most powerful of the bike diesel build threads i've watched still only had around 35-38bhp. all non-turbo's though.

I would have thought if the power delivery of a powerful diesel powered sports bike(say 120bhp upwards) is anything like the power delivery in my dads 313 168bhp 2.2cdi Sprinter then the moment you open the taps and the turbo reacts you get a big chunk of power that will just wheelie the bike then die shortly after. etc et

Edited 24 October, 201114 yr by Sonner

I didn't know there'd been a major swing from small petrols to small diesels... Total "small" diesel car sales is still a fraction of small petrol car sales... Only place small diesels have made any major inroads is for a small number of super economy versions, mainly by VAG...

As for the new regs killing diesels, been there, done that... Exactly the same was said when Euro 4 and then 5 came in... Its just anti diesel bashers trying to rally the petrolheads!

The future in Europe? Look at Peugeot... A 308 diesel electric hybrid...

Ford engine designer was in what car mag a few months ago. They can see the increase in technology required for diesel will push up the cost per unit especially where adblue type systems are required.

Modern direct injection petrols can meet the new regs without additional complicated systems. On top of that the small turbo engine will become more common place in the supermini class. Ford say the new 800cc 3 cylinder engine will be capable of 100bhp (Although not at launch) and is 25% cheaper to manufacture than the current 1.6 16v dohc unit.

It isnt going to be straight away but if the price differential starts creeping up to 2k then diesel in a cheap supermini is not going to be commercially viable.

In bigger cars you cant fit little three and two pot engines so the petrol engines will be more expensive and a 2k premium on 25k car for diesel is worth paying for the high mileage user.

It's just the car industry can see tsi units for small cars getting cheaper and diesel engines for small cars getting more expensive. Will there be a big enough demand to keep diesel in superminis? Time will tell.

Cheers

Lee

Edited 24 October, 201114 yr by logiclee

sorry double post. Smart phone not smart enough.

Cheers

Lee

Edited 24 October, 201114 yr by logiclee

I agree the new euro regs could well kill off the diesel supermini on a cost premium over petrol basis. A difference that would represent a smaller percentage of the overall cost of a large car but at the end of the day super efficiency and economy will omly bring in bonuses for the tax collector. As consumption reduces so the government of the day will decide it can increase its cut in order to make sure it continues to raise an ever increasing amount of revenue from the motorist

To be honest my next car will be neither.

Got my name down for a Tesla Model S, which looks superb and goes like stink. Not cheap to buy, but miles cheaper to run (and the same size as) than a 5 series/E class/A6

To be honest my next car will be neither.

Got my name down for a Tesla Model S, which looks superb and goes like stink. Not cheap to buy, but miles cheaper to run (and the same size as) than a 5 series/E class/A6

When technology gets to a family saloon with 70-80mph cruise and 100mile range with a fueled generator backup for longer trips and all for under £30k I'll order one.

Until then I'll stick with diesel.

I could charge the car at home from our solar panels and try and hide an extension cable at work.

Cheers

Lee

sorry double post. Smart phone not smart enough.

Cheers

Lee

Blimey Lee, you're smart to have a smart phone even it it isn't very smart! I'm not smart enough to have a smart phone, I'm not even smarter than a 10 year old!

Diesel powered bikes!? i've read a few home build threads on diesel bike engines in the past. and whilst AWESOME mpg figures seem achieveable all of the bikes lost there sport/speed potential. the most powerful of the bike diesel build threads i've watched still only had around 35-38bhp. all non-turbo's though.

I would have thought if the power delivery of a powerful diesel powered sports bike(say 120bhp upwards) is anything like the power delivery in my dads 313 168bhp 2.2cdi Sprinter then the moment you open the taps and the turbo reacts you get a big chunk of power that will just wheelie the bike then die shortly after. etc et

Hi Sonner, yep, it's an exciting project. I spent 18 months designing the supercharger for it and that's been tested already. But the engine is being designed by 3 of us for a small but significant company in the two wheeler market place. I don't do design work but because I'm a biker and successfully turbo'ed a big bike once (a GSX1400) they seem to think I knew what I was talking about. They made it clear from the start it had to be supercharged (it's actually easier to do on a bike), but so far only tested with mods on a specially modded petrol bike. The end product will be largely the same for the diesel engine however. The engine itself is secret but we are some way off tooling to experimental level. It will however be quite different to anything anyone has seen before and will have superbike performance in it's tweaked state or big touring bike performance in it's milder state. MPG's will be massively good yet allow 70-80 cruising effortlessly. Well, that's part of the design spec to meet, just got to make it now. Won't be too hard as I don't do much else now.

Crumbs, sorry Dempsek for bumping your post off topic! Cheers buddy!

Edited 24 October, 201114 yr by Estate Man

Well, the tesla will be 160 mile range from a single charge for 45k or 240 miles for 52k

Edited 24 October, 201114 yr by Whitelighter

The drive is more likely to come from the supply side. Refineries have an excess of petrol capacity and are short on Diesel exactly because everyone buys diesel. The market is so skewed now the running cost advantage of high diesel mpg is being eroded by the price disadvantage. The advantage of diesel still wins but this will not be the case soon, especially if the US switch on to Diesel n a big way. Of all the market segments thebsmall car is the one that makes least sense so I can see why VAG are making this statement.