'Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

[Huskoda]

Its already started at an employer I know of. A new round of contracts have gone out, with the addition of some clauses that when questioned, HR said are not enforceable but in there 'as standard practise'. Relating to work hours and termination that just coincidentally might come into effect if the UK dropped some EU rights. The department is together rejecting them but HR are saying 'oh, its not going to happen, you have nothing to worry about, its not enforceable'. And completely ignoring the 'yet' part. If they're not legally binding then what purpose do they serve in the contract?

 

It appears they are putting them in as time bombs for future use, should they get the opportunity and need.

 

This isn't scaremongering. This isn't a what if. This is actually happening. I have seen it with my own eyes. This is what Brexit actually is bringing to the common man.

[jlwah]

Another good reason to vote out no?

I'm coming round to that way of thinking (not voting to leave, I've been on the 'out' side since I first took an interest in politics 30 years ago!)

 

Interesting report by Fraser Nelson in the Spectator (and he is in the 'remain' camp!) http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/

Edited 21 April, 2016 by jlwah

[Scribbler]

I'm coming round to that way of thinking (not voting to leave, I've been on the 'out' side since I first took an interest in politics 30 years ago!)

 

Interesting report by Fraser Nelson in the Spectator (and he is in the 'remain' camp!) http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/the-deceptions-behind-george-osbornes-brexit-report/

 

And Osborne's figures rely on our exporters of goods and services just stopping exporting to the EU after we leave. The truth is most trade will continue just under a different agreement and those who do lose out wont just wrap up they will seek out new markets to sell to. None of this is even factored in.

[swedishskoda]

This is naive the EU can't be fixed because some parties think it needs more integration, others want less and others don't think anythings wrong.

 

Well, the same could (I guess) be said about the UK, Sweden, Germany, the USA... but there, an exit is harder to visualise (unless you're a Scot )

Politics must now and then be about coping with circumstances as they are and strive for the least evil compromise, Brexit won't make the EU disappear (a complete dissolution of the EU would be an interesting alternative, but that's not on the agenda right now).

[gadgetman]

Its already started at an employer I know of. A new round of contracts have gone out, with the addition of some clauses that when questioned, HR said are not enforceable but in there 'as standard practise'. Relating to work hours and termination that just coincidentally might come into effect if the UK dropped some EU rights. The department is together rejecting them but HR are saying 'oh, its not going to happen, you have nothing to worry about, its not enforceable'. And completely ignoring the 'yet' part. If they're not legally binding then what purpose do they serve in the contract?

It appears they are putting them in as time bombs for future use, should they get the opportunity and need.

This isn't scaremongering. This isn't a what if. This is actually happening. I have seen it with my own eyes. This is what Brexit actually is bringing to the common man.

And they call it project fear.

I'm hearing and encountering so much business on hold until after the referendum. If there is an exit and a shock to the economy these deals will never happen.

In aware of one major Corp putting it's London office refurbishment (£5m worth) on hold and if there's an exit, they'll move everything to one of the other EU offices and run the UK from there.

And Osborne's figures rely on our exporters of goods and services just stopping exporting to the EU after we leave. The truth is most trade will continue just under a different agreement and those who do lose out wont just wrap up they will seek out new markets to sell to. None of this is even factored in.

The service sector accounts for 85% of our economy and almost none of it is exportable trade, however the majority of it relies on purchasing from the EU (think supermarket veg etc). (it's on the BBC fact check eu section)

The 15% who are left, 44% is exported to the EU.

The sums just don't add up to support this glorious trade opportunity we would be given if we leave.

[Mikek3111]

Has no one even considered the fact that:

1. Whilst the Treasury states that we will be X% out of pocket per year if we leave that they haven't considered or factored in the "membership" payments we pay to the EU would far outweigh this meaning we would actually be 2-3% better off.

2. That whilst it may have an impact of export costs and import costs that we could actually "grow/make" a portion of the stuff ourselves which would actually increase job opportunities for low skilled workers.

3. Any decrease in "Migration" (wether they contribute to the system or not is not my concern here) but would actually ease stress on housing, NHS, schooling etc. We are only a small island, the higher the population the more strain on its infrastructure.

Np: I may have an outdated way of seeing things and I am not against immigration, have many friends who have immigrated here but to me it seems pretty simple, lower populations= Less strain?

[trundlenut]

Has no one even considered the fact that:

1. Whilst the Treasury states that we will be X% out of pocket per year if we leave that they haven't considered or factored in the "membership" payments we pay to the EU would far outweigh this meaning we would actually be 2-3% better off.

2. That whilst it may have an impact of export costs and import costs that we could actually "grow/make" a portion of the stuff ourselves which would actually increase job opportunities for low skilled workers.

3. Any decrease in "Migration" (wether they contribute to the system or not is not my concern here) but would actually ease stress on housing, NHS, schooling etc. We are only a small island, the higher the population the more strain on its infrastructure.

Np: I may have an outdated way of seeing things and I am not against immigration, have many friends who have immigrated here but to me it seems pretty simple, lower populations= Less strain?

1 assumes we don't have to pay anything to the EU, unlike Norway etc.

2 is good but would take a long time.

3 we have an aging population, immigrants are generally working age. So less immigration means more older people not working but using services and pensions. So more of a drain relative to the working population.

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[gadgetman]

Has no one even considered the fact that:

1. Whilst the Treasury states that we will be X% out of pocket per year if we leave that they haven't considered or factored in the "membership" payments we pay to the EU would far outweigh this meaning we would actually be 2-3% better off.

2. That whilst it may have an impact of export costs and import costs that we could actually "grow/make" a portion of the stuff ourselves which would actually increase job opportunities for low skilled workers.

3. Any decrease in "Migration" (wether they contribute to the system or not is not my concern here) but would actually ease stress on housing, NHS, schooling etc. We are only a small island, the higher the population the more strain on its infrastructure.

Np: I may have an outdated way of seeing things and I am not against immigration, have many friends who have immigrated here but to me it seems pretty simple, lower populations= Less strain?

Migrants won't leave, and will still have a right to remain under the Geneva convention.

We will not be able to boot people out as is claimed.

Neither would there be £350m/week more money for the NHS if we are to continue to cover things the EU currently pay for (farmer & fishing subsidies, growth grants & projects....)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36104163

[domhnall]

Has no one even considered the fact that:

1. Whilst the Treasury states that we will be X% out of pocket per year if we leave that they haven't considered or factored in the "membership" payments we pay to the EU would far outweigh this meaning we would actually be 2-3% better off.

2. That whilst it may have an impact of export costs and import costs that we could actually "grow/make" a portion of the stuff ourselves which would actually increase job opportunities for low skilled workers.

3. Any decrease in "Migration" (wether they contribute to the system or not is not my concern here) but would actually ease stress on housing, NHS, schooling etc. We are only a small island, the higher the population the more strain on its infrastructure.

Np: I may have an outdated way of seeing things and I am not against immigration, have many friends who have immigrated here but to me it seems pretty simple, lower populations= Less strain?

Population is only an issue in one part of the country, in many other parts declining population is the problem. If we decentralised this country like others do then we'd have less of an issue.

As an illustration, our local school is forecast to have no one in primary 1 in 2 year's time, there just aren't enough kids.

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[@Lee]

came up with a genius plan to get the chavs who currently want to leave to get behind the stay campaign;

Just remind them that their cheap baccy and booze runs will come to an abrupt end.

Sorry monsiuer, 200 B&H and a litre of spirits is your new allowance.

[lol-lol]

came up with a genius plan to get the chavs who currently want to leave to get behind the stay campaign;

Just remind them that their cheap baccy and booze runs will come to an abrupt end.

Sorry monsiuer, 200 B&H and a litre of spirits is your new allowance.

 

About 70% of Hand Rolling and Pipe tobacco is bootlegged in the UK, is like this as part of the EU and would be like this if we left the EU.

 

Cigarettes, depending on the area of the country, up to 40% of cigarettes are bootlegged/no UK excise tax paid according to UK Customs stats.

 

Bootlegging, Smuggling and illegal immigration will occur on huge scales whether we are part of the EU or not.

 

On the days running up to the formation if the single market thousands of customs officer were declared surplus (including me).

 

Unless we employ, trained, equipped thousands of new border/customs Officers, they training takes months and experience of years is needed to be optimally efficient, the vessels, x-ray equipment cost hundreds of millions and despite the billions of pounds lost to the UK Treasury investment has been low in UK border protection.  

 

Thought Obama spoke very well.  Clever man and although Hilary is no Obama the odds are looking like the Democrats holding on to power.  Leave the EU, get to the back of the queue for new Free Trade agreements.

[lol-lol]

Bet-fair odds of Brexit........

 

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

 

 

Hedge your bets on the other outcome ie the one you don't want and win so money if you do not get the result you want maybe.

[jlwah]

 

Thought Obama spoke very well.  Clever man and although Hilary is no Obama the odds are looking like the Democrats holding on to power.  Leave the EU, get to the back of the queue for new Free Trade agreements.

 

Obama only speaks for American interests, he doesn't give a stuff about what's right for the UK. America wanted Europe to become one federal state in order to stop wars in which America would bound to get involved. The UK's departure from Europe would probably hasten the whole projects demise, so he thinks we should put up and shut up.

 

His comments on trade agreements and specifically his 'back of the queue' comment showed his petulant side and given that he will be gone soon, largely irrelevant. As the UK and America are much more closely aligned on free trade and much more in tune on finance, a trade deal could probably be put together over lunch once he's gone.

[gadgetman]

Obama only speaks for American interests, he doesn't give a stuff about what's right for the UK. America wanted Europe to become one federal state in order to stop wars in which America would bound to get involved. The UK's departure from Europe would probably hasten the whole projects demise, so he thinks we should put up and shut up.

His comments on trade agreements and specifically his 'back of the queue' comment showed his petulant side and given that he will be gone soon, largely irrelevant. As the UK and America are much more closely aligned on free trade and much more in tune on finance, a trade deal could probably be put together over lunch once he's gone.

The issue with Obamas comments are that they sink the notation of getting a better trade deal outside of the EU which is what voters are being sold.

Even Le Pen who is championing everything the leave.eu camp are selling potential voters on trade & migration isn't what Boris & Gove want voters to be told unlike the GRO lot who welcome her comments.

First it was Norway, then Canada now Albania is the deal we'd be looking for with any trade deals negotiated.

The same Albania who has these deals with the EU because they've started the process to join the EU.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidate-countries/albania/eu_albania_relations_en.htm

America has already brokered a deal, TTIP. Anyone believing we'd get a different & more favourable deal from America is being delusional. Obama hasn't been the only American to say as much over the last few days. TTIP is pretty much the deal any country wishing to trade with America will be directed towards.

[Ootohere]

The United States of America land of the free. 

The US of A that Great Britain has had to pay back the War Loans from WW2 for decades.

 

The USA of A that has a West Coast and a East Coast but other Countries to the North & South & moves almost everything exported or imported by Sea or Air even though they are not a Island, just part of a Continent.

 

The US of A are they country that might not get Trade Agreements where it wants, the Drinking Water it needs, and that might be bankrupt if China wants its loans back, and it can not sell the Oil & Gas it produces at better prices as the other Nations put the squeeze on.

 

America thinks it is a Super Power but needs the resources of other Nations, even growing its food in Russia.

 

Skint, not much money in reserve, populations in North America being poisoned and wanting to Drill & Mine in the Arctic etc.

as they already pollute their own lands.

 

Obama, then Clinton or Trump have big problems coming. 

Money and Resources shortages.

Maybe even Nations no longer wanting their Armed Forces and Weapons and Protection.

The Arab States have used the USA for as long as they needed, and Trade Agreements might soon end.

[lol-lol]

Obama only speaks for American interests, he doesn't give a stuff about what's right for the UK. America wanted Europe to become one federal state in order to stop wars in which America would bound to get involved. The UK's departure from Europe would probably hasten the whole projects demise, so he thinks we should put up and shut up.   His comments on trade agreements and specifically his 'back of the queue' comment showed his petulant side and given that he will be gone soon, largely irrelevant. As the UK and America are much more closely aligned on free trade and much more in tune on finance, a trade deal could probably be put together over lunch once he's gone.

 

It sounded sincere and considered to me.  I see no evidence of the US wanting Europe to be a Federal State but it is easier for them to deal with one large trading block rather than 28 medium and small sized states.

 

Obama's comments on Free Trade Agreements are accurate based on the dozens that have been arranged in the last couple of decades ie they take between 4 and 9 years to arrange and hence we would be mad to commence our leaving of the EU intil we have an FTA in place with our major trading partners ie sometime after 2020, if we do leave.

 

Hilary looks odds on favourite to continue the Democratic presidency of the US although she has some different views to Obama she will promote any FTA as long as it has the proper environmental, labour and social components as well as services and trade safeguards.  

[jlwah]

The issue with Obamas comments are that they sink the notation of getting a better trade deal outside of the EU which is what voters are being sold.

Even Le Pen who is championing everything the leave.eu camp are selling potential voters on trade & migration isn't what Boris & Gove want voters to be told unlike the GRO lot who welcome her comments.

First it was Norway, then Canada now Albania is the deal we'd be looking for with any trade deals negotiated.

The same Albania who has these deals with the EU because they've started the process to join the EU.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/potential-candidate-countries/albania/eu_albania_relations_en.htm

America has already brokered a deal, TTIP. Anyone believing we'd get a different & more favourable deal from America is being delusional. Obama hasn't been the only American to say as much over the last few days. TTIP is pretty much the deal any country wishing to trade with America will be directed towards.

The message being promoted by the Brexit campaigners is for greater opportunities to strike up trade agreements with countries that the EU aren't actively looking at, such as India and South American countries. The US is our third largest importer and it is our single largest export market and we are both the largest investors in each others country, as such the USA, despite Obama's spiteful and dishonest rhetoric, will be keen to see us move up the queue with some haste!

 

Also, as TTIP hasn't been agreed yet and unless Obama does it before he leaves office in January of next year, then it may stall for many more years, so as of now there is no TTIP agreement, though tariffs for trading in the US are around 3%, so hardly a big disincentive.

 

I also don't think we would be looking at a Norway/Canada/Albania deal, we would looking to broker a UK deal that suits ours and our trading partners needs better.

 

Given that the EU is slowly failing, we might be better off out of an EU that looks evermore inwardly as the economies of the Southern and Northern countries continue to diverge, stretching the credibility of the Euro even further.

[gadgetman]

Seems many leave supporters on social media are trying to link Churchill with anti Europe quotes

http://grahampointer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/what-did-churchill-say-on-11-may-1953.html?m=1

[domhnall]

Seems many leave supporters on social media are trying to link Churchill with anti Europe quotes

http://grahampointer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/what-did-churchill-say-on-11-may-1953.html?m=1

Ironic given he's widely credited with having devised the concept of a federal European state.

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[M12MKD]

I can honestly say hand on heart, I've no idea which way to vote. What I do know if either way I (we, you whatever way you want to say it) vote it will cost us. The result will be close enough to cause issues within Europe regardless if it's a Yes to Leave or a No to stay. Like many have said in this thread asked the question a few years a go, and it would have been leave. Now with the things that are being said it's a hard choice.

 

The way I personally see it, is you're damned if we do and damned if we don't.

[Ootohere]

If the SNP are elected back into Government in Scotland a week on Thursday and then the Referendum result in June is to stay in the EU, 

then hopefully the Government in Scotland can drop the Neverendum tripe and let it rest for a generation.

Or until this bunch of snouters have all retired from politics.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-scotland-36124382

[domhnall]

George they've already dropped it until there is clear evidence of public demand for it. The main people going on about another referendum are those nasty specimens, the tories. The nasty party have their own reasons for that as they want to force labour into third place.

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[Ootohere]

Good to hear.

So in 2 months time we will know how those in the UK Vote on in or out of the EU, and we will know if those in Scotland with a Vote are of the same mind.

 

Then the Scottish Independence Re- Referendum can be put to bed until 'the public demand it',  the general public that is, 

over 50% of those with a Vote want a Referendum.  So another Referendum on holding a Referendum would be how we know.

 

Roll on the 23rd / 24th June and some of these Politicians can get back to running the UK, and some can resign, stand down, 

exit left like Davis Miliband did, move to the US and pick up the really big kelly working for charities.

[lol-lol]

Seems many leave supporters on social media are trying to link Churchill with anti Europe quotes

http://grahampointer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/what-did-churchill-say-on-11-may-1953.html?m=1

 

Most people forget that although many people thought Churchill was a great war time leader but he was defeated by one of the largest ever margins by Attlee as the people recognised they wanted a leader to build the peace. 

[Dr Zoidberg]

And then they reelected Churchill afterwards.