EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[gadgetman]

What bus?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-leave-campaign-lies-cps-investigation-misleading-voters-a7403036.html

[lol-lol]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37902922

 

 

UK public finances 'to take £25bn hit'

 

 

The prospects for the UK's public finances have deteriorated by £25bn since the March Budget, says the Institute for Fiscal Studies.  Several groups have reduced their UK growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts since the EU referendum.  Last month, The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for 2017 UK economic growth to 1.1% as it warned that the global recovery remains "weak and precarious".  International body the OECD also cut its forecast for next year from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the future path of policy and the reaction of the economy remains very high and risks remain to the downside."

Edited 8 November, 2016 by lol-lol

[Scribbler]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37902922

 

 

UK public finances 'to take £25bn hit'

 

 

The prospects for the UK's public finances have deteriorated by £25bn since the March Budget, says the Institute for Fiscal Studies.  Several groups have reduced their UK growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts since the EU referendum.  Last month, The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for 2017 UK economic growth to 1.1% as it warned that the global recovery remains "weak and precarious".  International body the OECD also cut its forecast for next year from 2% to 1%, saying: "Uncertainty about the future path of policy and the reaction of the economy remains very high and risks remain to the downside."

 

 

And growth in the 27 EU states will be higher than 2% will it? Nearly very single forecast has been upgraded since last year bar one IIFC i think which was a smidge less. Please as someone said earlier stop posting this rubbish in the thread. By all means post the link but when you force people to read stuff it comes over a little desperate and makes the thread impossible to navigate and without your sizable posts we would still be on the first thread less than 100 pages. Your the forum equivalent of the animal rights campaigners who insist shoving graphic images of animal cruelty in your eyes unsolicited rather than the supreme oracle of things that you think you are. Just post the link we can have a read if we fancy a laugh.

Edited 8 November, 2016 by Scribbler

[lol-lol]

And growth in the 27 EU states will be higher than 2% will it? Nearly very single forecast has been upgraded since last year bar one IIFC i think which was a smidge less. Please as someone said earlier stop posting this rubbish in the thread. By all means post the link but when you force people to read stuff it comes over a little desperate and makes the thread impossible to navigate and without your sizable posts we would still be on the first thread less than 100 pages. Your the forum equivalent of the animal rights campaigners who insist shoving graphic images of animal cruelty in your eyes unsolicited rather than the supreme oracle of things that you think you are. Just post the link we can have a read if we fancy a laugh.

 

Do not know your background, mine is ex-PwC who are one of the many organisations who have forecast a significantly lower growth for the UK due to the BREXIT vote and eventual leave.  The article above quotes the IMF.  From my current work in International Trade and evidenced by the Office for National Statistics in the UK the costs of imports has jumped significantly an the UK has not  yet boosted exports to even start to rebalance the UK economy.

 

What UK voters who voted Leave either did not realise would be a consequence, or factored it in and thought a 5 to 10% fall in their buying power was worth the illusion of sovereignty, which again as an ex-frontier Officer know that it is not enforceable with all the cuts that we have had over the last few years.

 

Some of us could see that the UK voter could quite possibly be disposed to self-harm and voting out of the EU and made provisions for hedging an outcome to come out of the EU by investing in Bonds and Gilts and working in industries that will benefit from BREXIT.  To now have the prospect of 80% more work in doing customs entries for the UK international trade is manna from heaven but sadly a burden that UK businesses have not had since 1992.  Ever cloud has a silver lining and the UK government will be able to collect massively more on import taxes and VAT on purchases within the UK so win-win for them ie ill-informed voters get what they want and they get shed loads of more taxation to close the gap between receipts and spending which they have only half closed since the financial crisis.

 

Keep on laughing, I will keep on crying for the UK young whilst squirreling away for my Spanish villa with my Irish passport and come back to the UK to lament what could have been.      

[Scribbler]

Do not know your background, mine is ex-PwC who are one of the many organisations who have forecast a significantly lower growth for the UK due to the BREXIT vote and eventual leave.  The article above quotes the IMF.  From my current work in International Trade and evidenced by the Office for National Statistics in the UK the costs of imports has jumped significantly an the UK has not  yet boosted exports to even start to rebalance the UK economy.

 

What UK voters who voted Leave either did not realise would be a consequence, or factored it in and thought a 5 to 10% fall in their buying power was worth the illusion of sovereignty, which again as an ex-frontier Officer know that it is not enforceable with all the cuts that we have had over the last few years.

 

Some of us could see that the UK voter could quite possibly be disposed to self-harm and voting out of the EU and made provisions for hedging an outcome to come out of the EU by investing in Bonds and Gilts and working in industries that will benefit from BREXIT.  To now have the prospect of 80% more work in doing customs entries for the UK international trade is manna from heaven but sadly a burden that UK businesses have not had since 1992.  Ever cloud has a silver lining and the UK government will be able to collect massively more on import taxes and VAT on purchases within the UK so win-win for them ie ill-informed voters get what they want and they get shed loads of more taxation to close the gap between receipts and spending which they have only half closed since the financial crisis.

 

Keep on laughing, I will keep on crying for the UK young whilst squirreling away for my Spanish villa with my Irish passport and come back to the UK to lament what could have been.      

 

Don't take offence i like reading your opinions and i know your role is closely linked with this. Its just the wholesale copying of other pages into the thread thats a tad annoying and disruptive to the general smooth reading especially on a smartphone. Just post the link im sure people will read it if they want. 

[lol-lol]

Don't take offence i like reading your opinions and i know your role is closely linked with this. Its just the wholesale copying of other pages into the thread thats a tad annoying and disruptive to the general smooth reading especially on a smartphone. Just post the link im sure people will read it if they want. 

 

Thanks. I know links can sometimes not work so copying a few lines of the essence means people can get the highlights if the link gets broken. Live long and prosper. 

Edited 8 November, 2016 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Brexit walks into a bar.

 

The barman says "why the long farce?"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An Englishman, a Scotsman and an Irishman walk into a bar...

The Englishman wanted to go so they all had to leave.   (Or not???)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

There are a whole load of these but some are not decent to copy..

[KenONeill]

I see in the news that the government are appealing the High Court ruling that triggering Article 50 requires an Act of Parliament rather than just a Prime Ministerial fiat. Surely, since this is a democracy, the government should accept the ruling and start drafting a bill?

[@Lee]

Anyone know if anythings happened over the past few days?

Sure would be a good time to 'bury bad news' what with everyone so focused on the US s4itstorm.

[trundlenut]

Anyone know if anythings happened over the past few days?

Sure would be a good time to 'bury bad news' what with everyone so focused on the US s4itstorm.

May went to India and achieved bugger all.

[@Lee]

May went to India and achieved bugger all.

I saw that. Shame there's a lack of mango requirements in the UK otherwise she'd have India all sewn up lol

I see Donald Dump's invited her to meet him; thankfully for her she's wayyyy above the legal age of consent.

I wouldn't be surprised to see or hear private health care on the agenda.

[moley]

Anyone know if anythings happened over the past few days?

The sky hasn't fallen in. Sterling has improved against the euro. Juncker has told the Italians to toe the line in there referendum on 4th of December.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/730148/Jean-Claude-Juncker-Matteo-Renzi-Italy-Eurozone-EU-referendum-European-Commission

 

May went to India and achieved bugger all.

Under the rules of the EU she is not allowed to discuss any trade deals until Brexit is complete.

[Ootohere]

She or anyone can discuss anything they want, that is why the west fights wars for the Free World.  

As for negotiating that is a different matter, members of the club are not allowed to break the rules.

 

But then the UK could hand in its notice tell the members staying in to go spin on it and do their worst.

Donald Trump will make them assume the position so maybe they need to invest on KY Jelly.

Not as in the company, just bulk buy it from some country or another.

[lol-lol]

The sky hasn't fallen in. Sterling has improved against the euro.........

 

But the sky has got very dark.  The exchange rate against the all important US dollar is at 1.26 now when it was 1.40 to 1.50 this year up until 23rd June.  We are using 1.2293 for customs purposes until 30 Nov.  Inflation has risen from practically zero earlier in the year to 1% for CPI and 2% for RPI.   House prices have stagnated since the BREXIT vote.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/sept2016 

1.Main points for September 2016

UK trade shows import and export activity and is a main contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. All data are shown on a seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis, at current prices unless otherwise stated.This UK trade release provides the first estimate for a full quarter of data post the EU referendum...The deficit on trade in goods was £12.7 billion in September 2016, widening by £1.6 billion from August 2016.This widening reflected a decrease in exports of £0.2 billion to £26.1 billion and an increase in imports of £1.3 billion to a record £38.8 billion. There were increases in imports of ships, material manufactures, road vehicles and oil. 

[Scribbler]

But the sky has got very dark.  The exchange rate against the all important US dollar is at 1.26 now when it was 1.40 to 1.50 this year up until 23rd June.  We are using 1.2293 for customs purposes until 30 Nov.  Inflation has risen from practically zero earlier in the year to 1% for CPI and 2% for RPI.   House prices have stagnated since the BREXIT vote.

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/sept2016 

1.Main points for September 2016

UK trade shows import and export activity and is a main contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. All data are shown on a seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis, at current prices unless otherwise stated.This UK trade release provides the first estimate for a full quarter of data post the EU referendum...The deficit on trade in goods was £12.7 billion in September 2016, widening by £1.6 billion from August 2016.This widening reflected a decrease in exports of £0.2 billion to £26.1 billion and an increase in imports of £1.3 billion to a record £38.8 billion. There were increases in imports of ships, material manufactures, road vehicles and oil. 

 

Again focused on the minutiae and not on the bigger picture. Im happy we will be now back in bed with america rather than Europe. I think we are more closely aligned with America and they should be our closest ally and trading partner. I think his protectionist stance will not apply to us reading between the lines. Im Focused purely on the direction of travel not on obstacles in the road. i Personally think May will wrap trump around her little finger as Maggie did with Reagen.

[trundlenut]

Under the rules of the EU she is not allowed to discuss any trade deals until Brexit is complete.

That's not what the Brexit Boys have said

[domhnall]

we just bought some new laptops from hp. they're up £100 each since yesterday.

[MartynVRS]

Lots of the kit we buy in work has gone up in price, capex requests needing to be recalculated as things have gone up by quite a bit. Everything has gone up. I also know lots of businesses are struggling with getting the usual seasonal agency workers as most are from Europe and since there no certainty of what happens when Brexit really kicks off they aren't staying. So locals can do the jobs now? Fat chance of that when most are bone idle around here and collecting dole is easier for them.

But it's OK we've got our country back innit...

[lol-lol]

Again focused on the minutiae and not on the bigger picture. Im happy we will be now back in bed with america rather than Europe. I think we are more closely aligned with America and they should be our closest ally and trading partner. I think his protectionist stance will not apply to us reading between the lines. Im Focused purely on the direction of travel not on obstacles in the road. i Personally think May will wrap trump around her little finger as Maggie did with Reagen.

Minutiae is an interesting way to describe very significant rises in wholesale businesses cost of buying in many goods which is translating to people's shopping baskets being 5 to 10% more expensive as people are finding with their weekly shop and is starting to manifest in the inflation figures. A significant part of the UK's food and of course most of our cars are made in mainland Europe as the EU is far and away our biggest trading partner (44%) and the US is only a third of that being and since they are an ocean away rather than a short train/truck journey way meaning trading with them will be much more expensive logistically.

At least Trump has a degree in Economic compared to May's second class degree in Geography so not sure who will be fooling who. Trump is very sympathetic to his German and Scottish ancestry so he may side with the Scots more than the English on matters.

The worry is the large scale changes on people's day to day finances, their weekly shop, buying a new telly, have their next foreign holiday and all those things are suddenly several percent more expensive whilst people's wages in most cases will not get reviewed for many months. Though civil service wages and pensions will get the CPI or triple lock 2.5% which the UK is struggling to afford with what was a albeit slowly reducing gap in expenditure/receipts now on the rise again increase the UK national debt, already doubled in the last 6 years, now accelerating its rise.

Edited 12 November, 2016 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

Brexit means Brexit. Because nobody has a clue what Brexit really means.........

 

"What do we not know about Brexit? An awful lot. We don't even know when the negotiations can start, let alone what they will be about or when they will end."

http://uk.businessinsider.com/house-of-commons-library-report-brexit-article-50-theresa-may-2016-11

[trundlenut]

I think Boris' head might be about to explode, he can't remember which side he's supposed to be on.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/12/boris-johnson-raises-concerns-as-government-considers-abandoning/

[@Lee]

I think Boris' head might be about to explode, he can't remember which side he's supposed to be on.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/12/boris-johnson-raises-concerns-as-government-considers-abandoning/

No surprise. The bumbling bufoon knows what side he's supposed to be on. I'd hate to be his conscience.

[gadgetman]

No surprise. The bumbling bufoon knows what side he's supposed to be on. I'd hate to be his conscience.

Boris is only out for Boris. He's an ex hack who thinks he can do politics. History tells us this never works.

As for Brexit, as far right groups get a boost from both brexit and US election results, and given they all have "this country first" views, what does this really mean for life outside the EU?

All I see is our export market is about shrink

[cheezemonkhai]

I saw that. Shame there's a lack of mango requirements in the UK otherwise she'd have India all sewn up lol

I see Donald Dump's invited her to meet him; thankfully for her she's wayyyy above the legal age of consent.

I wouldn't be surprised to see or hear private health care on the agenda.

Clearly you don't know the best mango is from india.

So can i ask, do you prefer protectionism over free trade or is it just that you want anything out of the EU fail?

I ask as you've been so negative since the vote, while many of us have just accepted the result and get on with trying to make the best we can.

[Ootohere]

Seemingly the UK is not allowed under EU rules to negotiate Trade Agreements while still a member of the EU and the UK has never served the article that says the UK is leaving the EU.

 

But all is well as there is a UK MEP off to the US doing a bit of chin wagging with the President Elect of the United States of America.

Not an elected member of the Westminster Parliament or the Government in power in the UK, but an elected member or the European Parliament.

 

Whats the worst that can happen...?

They are both totally sane and intelligent gentleman with a great degree of tolerance and empathy & the belief in equality and anti-racism.