EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[lol-lol]

During the last month Stirling has made gains against the dollar, while the euro has made losses.

 

It was 1.31 Euros/GBP on the 23rd of June and is 1.18 now so still 11% lower than the pre-BREXIT exchange rate.

 

As for USD we are 1.49 against the current 1.28 ie 16% lower than pre-BREXIT even with this min-pop.

 

 

For Custom purposes everyone has to use 1.2399 USD/GBP until the end of the month, 1.1773 for Euro/GBP for those few trades, currently, like when goods are declared from non-EU into UK, like for car parts from Japan in to EU/UK.  

 

[lol-lol]

I get told off for worrying about Stirling when it is the Pound that is being discussed.

Stirling Castle was No.1 Top Visitor Location i am read the other week.

 

That is why I use GBP rather than Sterling so I avoid that, plus it is the TLA used in the various financial tables.

[The PM]

The constitution is quite clear, as is our laws.

 

I am sick of seeing these constant references to a "Constitution"! We don't have one!!

 

Our method is based on Acts of Parliament, Court Judgements and Conventions... Unlike the US one it is not written in stone and can be changed by new Acts, Court Judgements and Conventions... It develops and changes over time... All in all a better way of doing things in my view...

Edited 6 December, 2016 by The PM

[moley]

It was 1.31 Euros/GBP on the 23rd of June and is 1.18 now so still 11% lower than the pre-BREXIT exchange rate.

As for USD we are 1.49 against the current 1.28 ie 16% lower than pre-BREXIT even with this min-pop.

In the month leading up to the referendum the euro was around 1.25 and the dollar around 1.40. With the euro at 1.18 and the dollar at 1.27 the level of Stirling is not 15% lower.

[The PM]

"Figures and statistics as usual tell one story, the truth is often not in the statistics or the money markets."

 

The issue is that the same statistics and "truths" (whatever they are!) can be made by individuals to mean whatever suits them so the same statistic and "truth" can mean totally opposite things to different people...

 

This thread is a prime example of that as each side gets ever more desperate to prove that the other side is wrong instead of pulling together and accepting the decision made by the majority who voted (another bit of twisting there!)...

 

I can see many more days months and years worth of the same coming soon on this thread!!

[KenONeill]

I am sick of seeing these constant references to a "Constitution"! We don't have one!!

 

Our method is based on Acts of Parliament, Court Judgements and Conventions... Unlike the US one it is not written in stone and can be changed by new Acts, Court Judgements and Conventions... It develops and changes over time... All in all a better way of doing things in my view...

Er, the US Constitution can be changed by Constitutional Conventions (although they have never held one so far) and by Amendments (although there is no mechanism for repealing an Amendment except by use of a later Amendment).

[lol-lol]

In the month leading up to the referendum the euro was around 1.25 and the dollar around 1.40. With the euro at 1.18 and the dollar at 1.27 the level of Stirling is not 15% lower.

 

Depends when you compare it to ie Start of Year, April dip, jut pre-BREXIT but it certainly is 10 to 20% lower than the first half of the year depending on what point in Q1-Q2 picked.

HMRC rates used for import supplied by BoE.....

 

              EURO     USD

Jan-16        1.3710   1.5003

Jan26-feb29   1.2978   1.4144

mar           1.2860   1.4318

apr           1.2626   1.4110

may           1.2708   1.4403

june          1.2961   1.4619

july          1.3017   1.4672

aug           1.1970   1.3178

sep           1.1779   1.3250

oct           1.1635   1.2961

nov           1.1209   1.2293

Dec-16        1.1773   1.2399

 

16.4% over the year for Euro, 21% for USD.

Edited 6 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[cheezemonkhai]

This thread......

 

(Note I'm refering to the war for no reason line, before I get lynched) Edited 6 December, 2016 by cheezemonkhai

[lol-lol]

Whatever floats your boat.  I prefer....

 

[essexalan]

We do have a Constitution dating right back to and probably before Magna Carta, added too considerably over the centuries it forms the basis of the US constitution and that of many other countries. Most of the arguments going on before the Supreme court now refer to this Constitution. What we don't have, unlike the US, is a clearly written Constitution that anybody can read and understand hence the nice little earner barristers are on. Of course the government and judiciary can play pretty fast and loose with all this when it suits them. 

[lol-lol]

Tough ask when FTAs normally take between 4 to 9 years....... 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brexit deal must be agreed by October 2018, EU warns

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/brexit-deal-must-agreed-october-9401656

 

Top Brussels negotiator Michel Barnier says "time will be short" to strike the complex deal once Theresa May triggers Article 50 next year.  Theresa May will have less than 18 months to agree a Brexit deal with Brussels, the EU's top negotiator warned today as he vowed to play hardball with Britain.  Michel Barnier, the French politician leading the EU's Brexit team, said "time will be short" once the PM triggers Article 50 next March.  He set an October 2018 deadline for negotiations to conclude, warning it will take a further six months for the deal to be legally approved before Britain finally leaves in March 2019.  "All in all there will be less than 18 months to negotiate. That is short," Mr Barnier said.   "Should the UK notify by the end of March as Theresa May said she would, it is safe to say negotiations could start a few weeks later and an Article 50 reached by October 2018."

[lol-lol]

We do have a Constitution dating right back to and probably before Magna Carta, added too considerably over the centuries it forms the basis of the US constitution and that of many other countries. Most of the arguments going on before the Supreme court now refer to this Constitution. What we don't have, unlike the US, is a clearly written Constitution that anybody can read and understand hence the nice little earner barristers are on. Of course the government and judiciary can play pretty fast and loose with all this when it suits them. 

 

[The PM]

We do have a Constitution dating right back to and probably before Magna Carta, added too considerably over the centuries it forms the basis of the US constitution and that of many other countries. Most of the arguments going on before the Supreme court now refer to this Constitution. What we don't have, unlike the US, is a clearly written Constitution that anybody can read and understand hence the nice little earner barristers are on. Of course the government and judiciary can play pretty fast and loose with all this when it suits them. 

 

https://www.bl.uk/magna-carta/articles/britains-unwritten-constitution

 

Ours isn't a constitution, i.e. it's not written and changes all the time. To compare what we do with what the USA have is like comparing chalk and cheese. What is being debated at the Supreme Court is not about a "constitution" which would infer that there is something concrete which can be referred to but the interpretation of the various Acts, Court Judgements and Conventions which cover the EU and how it was introduced into the UK. If we actually had a Constitution things would be a lot more black and white!

Edited 6 December, 2016 by The PM

[gadgetman]

https://www.bl.uk/magna-carta/articles/britains-unwritten-constitution

Ours isn't a constitution, i.e. it's not written and changes all the time. To compare what we do with what the USA have is like comparing chalk and cheese. What is being debated at the Supreme Court is not about a "constitution" which would infer that there is something concrete which can be referred to but the interpretation of the various Acts, Court Judgements and Conventions which cover the EU and how it was introduced into the UK. If we actually had a Constitution things would be a lot more black and white!

It's about more than just the EU.

[lol-lol]

So with the summer recess next year we have about one year to sort out a trade agreement with the rest of the EU.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-06/may-accepts-call-to-reveal-more-details-of-brexit-strategy

 

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to reveal more details of her plans for Brexit but challenged lawmakers to back her proposed timetable for withdrawing from the European Union.  May on Tuesday accepted the wording of an opposition Labour Party motion seeking more details on her Brexit plans, subject to an amendment calling for the government to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty -- the formal trigger for Brexit -- by March 31, 2017. The House of Commons will debate the motion Wednesday   (TODAY!). 

[Ootohere]

They can debate or master-bate all they like because they know nothing more about what they are 'talking' about than they did on the 24th June 2016 and they have no more legal opinions from those that are sitting looking at the legal situation.

 

Its is just a pig in a poke so far and looks like continuing for a long time to come.

[The PM]

It's about more than just the EU.

 

Certainly some elements of the Remain camp are trying to make it into that, but even the person bringing it has said that it's basically about procedure rather than anything else.She has said that Brexit must take place, the only doubt is how it should be done which is what this hearing is about.

 

 

 

I suspect May has deliberately held off on article 50 simply to give the Country more time to get things organised, if Cameron had been on the ball before the Referendum they'd have insisted on contingency plans being drawn up (and Corbyn should have asked the question too) but they thought it was a foregone conclusion that we would vote to stay and did not even bother with the alternative. Ever heard of "stalling tactics" to give yourself more time? They hadn't any choice in this case.

[essexalan]

I suppose you could say that Cameron made a smart move by resigning and not going article 50 straight away, he knew there were no plans in place for Brexit. There is no time limit on a Brexit agreement but the two year and we are out period will be applied regardless of any agreement. Negotiations can continue long after we have left the EU but must be agreed by all the remaining 27 members, that will be like herding cats! 

If we reach an agreement ratified by both us and the EU prior to the two year deadline expiring then we are out effective from the date of ratification. Barnier is talking rubbish and just another indication of the stance the EU intend to take. Repeal the 1972 Act as being in breach of our Constitution, walk away and let's get on with it.

[trundlenut]

I suppose you could say that Cameron made a smart move by resigning and not going article 50 straight away, he knew there were no plans in place for Brexit. There is no time limit on a Brexit agreement but the two year and we are out period will be applied regardless of any agreement. Negotiations can continue long after we have left the EU but must be agreed by all the remaining 27 members, that will be like herding cats!

If we reach an agreement ratified by both us and the EU prior to the two year deadline expiring then we are out effective from the date of ratification. Barnier is talking rubbish and just another indication of the stance the EU intend to take. Repeal the 1972 Act as being in breach of our Constitution, walk away and let's get on with it.

By carry on you mean negotiating with the people we just told to F off.

[essexalan]

By carry on you mean negotiating with the people we just told to F off.

Having been told by Merkel, Junckers et al to do just that then turnabout is fair play. They have made it quite clear that any deal made will be on their terms so why waste time negotiating with them? I am quite sure that trade deals can be made with other countries a lot quicker than the EU manages to do and as soon as the EU see that then they will be wanting to open negotiations with us.

[trundlenut]

Having been told by Merkel, Junckers et al to do just that then turnabout is fair play. They have made it quite clear that any deal made will be on their terms so why waste time negotiating with them? I am quite sure that trade deals can be made with other countries a lot quicker than the EU manages to do and as soon as the EU see that then they will be wanting to open negotiations with us.

Which won't be complicated at all by the fact we just unilaterally tore up all our existing agreements because we didn't like them.

[essexalan]

Which won't be complicated at all by the fact we just unilaterally tore up all our existing agreements because we didn't like them.

Trade is trade and money talks. Not a case of not liking our existing trade agreements but not liking the baggage that comes with them all of which came after the Common Market was set up. The EU will quite happily tear up these agreements anyway and have as good as told us so unless we agree to some draconian measures. They want us gone because we are a bad influence on a number of other countries a lot of whom have found themselves increasingly in debt probably forever to the Federal Bank or is that the Bundesbank.

[@Lee]

My Brexit Plan by T. May

1. Hard Brexit

2. Soft Brexit

3. Norwegian model Brexit

4. Brexit means Brexit, Brexit

5. Brexit with toast (no Marmite)

6. Red, White and Blue Brexit

 

Confidential

(please don't leak this one aswell)

[gadgetman]

Having been told by Merkel, Junckers et al to do just that then turnabout is fair play. They have made it quite clear that any deal made will be on their terms so why waste time negotiating with them? I am quite sure that trade deals can be made with other countries a lot quicker than the EU manages to do and as soon as the EU see that then they will be wanting to open negotiations with us.

You're aware though we would have no trade deals in place and cannot negotiate any until the article 50 process has finished.

If we were to abandon eu discussions and just leave, it doesn't bode well for how we view legally binding trade deals & laws which is why that will never happen.

[gadgetman]

My Brexit Plan by T. May

1. Hard Brexit

2. Soft Brexit

3. Norwegian model Brexit

4. Brexit means Brexit, Brexit

5. Brexit with toast (no Marmite)

6. Red, White and Blue Brexit

Confidential

(please don't leak this one aswell)

I would put money on the leaks coming from one of the brexiteers myself.