EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[lol-lol]

We need more certainty.  If I do not have advanced knowledge, by many months if not 1 to 2 years, of the details of the BREXIT deal, then the systems needed to do almost twice as many customs entries as I already do, will not be as efficient as they might be in terms of the software to handle the increased load, the port inventory systems, the staffing.

 

All those countries ie Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, all have Free Trade agreements with the EU but they need to do customs entries accompanied by Origin Certificates to claim the zero customs duties for entry in to the EU,  they still have to pay import VAT but this is reclaimable in most cases.

 

Acquiring and install of ICT hardware and all the other aspects of BREXIT will go most smoothly if we get an idea of what kind of BREXIT we are getting and not doing so could handicap British Industry post BREXIT.  Importers in Britain would also need much larger payment account for import taxes so they would need time to set this up with the authorities.  So I am hopefully of what sort of BREXIT we do get we obtain details of what it will be so we can make the smoothest transition possible.  

[The PM]

Brexit doesn't mean anything at the moment because we haven't started discussing it, until we do it's all pure guesswork...

 

 

 

We have trade with countries outside the EU so the ICT hardware is already in place, it will need to be adjusted to suit whatever sort of deal we get but it's already there. It's true that we will have to meet the EU safety (and other) rules if we continue to trade with the EU but that is no different to now and applies to all countries outside the EU we trade with each of whom have their own rules and guidelines. Any Exporter worth their salt will already know what those rules are and will make their goods suitable to be sold in that country whether it's an EU one or outside the EU. 

 

Again it's nothing new, it's what British Exporters do already whether exporting to the EU or any other country.

Edited 11 December, 2016 by The PM

[lol-lol]

Except the BREXIT vote did cause a major shift in the value of the GB Pound against the key (85% of UK imports) US Dollar (20% change since BREXIT vote).  

As my old Department put it..... 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/575382/OTS_Release_1016.pdf

 

Trade Trends  Following the global economic crisis, UK trade dropped in 2009. Both imports and exports then steadily increased until 2012. From the start of 2013, imports remained relatively flat till a very sharp increase in Q3 of 2016, while exports peaked in Q2 of 2013.  The total export trade for Q3 of 2016 was £72.8 billion, which was a decrease of 0.6 per cent compared with £73.3 billion for Q3 of 2015.  The total import trade for Q3 of 2016 was £126 billion, which was an increase of 27 per cent compared with £99.8 billion for Q3 of 2015.  There was a trade deficit of £53.6 billion for Q3 of 2016. This doubled on the £26.5 billion deficit for Q3 of 2015. These values were strongly influenced by trade in non-monetary gold.  For many years Germany has been our largest trading import partner by value. The USA has been the dominant trading partner for exports for many years.  Mechanical appliances and Motor vehicles have generally been the largest import commodities by value. For exports, Mechanical appliances has also predominantly been the largest valued commodity, with occasional peaks for Precious metals. Figure 2: Quarterly UK trade, 2009 – 2016

 

• Exports down 0.6% for Q3 2016 on Q3 2015
• Imports up 27% for Q3 2016 on Q3 2015
• Trade deficit doubled for Q3 2016 on Q3 2015

Edited 11 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

So we will never know what the money markets would have done, or even the EU would be scheming up if the UK Voters and the others have voted in the majority to stay in the EU.

 

Time will tell what the Out vote means when the UK Government get on with it.

We all know how the Markets and the Traders like ups and downs, and the Politicians, Civil Servants and Contractors and Agencies love something to give them more employment, travel and opportunities for further employment when they leave public service.

 

Land of opportunity in the UK, Health Care from womb to death and not too extreme weather & not a war zone or a neighbour to one.

Land of Hope & Glory, Mother of the Free. How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?

 

Chin up old boy. That is the spirit, be positive.

[moley]

[lol-lol]

 

Don't you just love graphs that do not have the base line as zero?

 

It make is look like the October figures is massive compared to the earlier figures when they are actually on a few percent more and actually much less than a straight forward boast from what would be the rise in value if we were selling the same amount of goods in USD and that was translated back in to GBP using the much more advantage exchanges rate GBP/USD.

 

The October 16 figure is only 3.2% better than the relatively good April figures despite the currencies being more than 10% better with much of export sales in non-GBP.

 

The Export graph, when overlaid with Import values and the net trade balance figure showing the HMRC stated figure of a doubling of the trade gap in the last year due in large part due to the significant fall in the GBP/USD due to BREXIT affecting Q3 figures especially.  We all hope, and will work for, exports to increase and to look at ways to keep imports under control (like with the customs warehouses I setup)  but let us not deny that the BREXIT vote has caused seismic economic consequences already as the BoE and Philip Hammond acknowledge.   

Edited 12 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[moley]

Don't you just love graphs that do not have the base line as zero?

 

It make is look like the October figures is massive compared to the earlier figures when they are actually on a few percent more and actually much less than a straight forward boast from what would be the rise in value if we were selling the same amount of goods in USD and that was translated back in to GBP using the much more advantage exchanges rate GBP/USD.

 

The October 16 figure is only 3.2% better than the relatively good April figures despite the currencies being more than 10% better with much of export sales in non-GBP.

 

The Export graph, when overlaid with Import values and the net trade balance figure showing the HMRC stated figure of a doubling of the trade gap in the last year due in large part due to the significant fall in the GBP/USD due to BREXIT affecting Q3 figures especially.  We all hope, and will work for, exports to increase and to look at ways to keep imports under control (like with the customs warehouses I setup)  but let us not deny that the BREXIT vote has caused seismic economic consequences already as the BoE and Philip Hammond acknowledge.   

I prefer to look at some of the positives from the figures rather than 'cherry pick' the doom and gloom.

[The PM]

But that's all the Remainers do, Moley, look at this thread for the evidence. 

[moley]

Key Points

 

 

 

• Total trade exports for October 2016 were £26.8 billion. This was an increase of £1.4 billion (5.4 per cent) compared with last month and an increase of £2.0 billion (8.2 per cent) compared with October 2015.
  
• Total trade imports for October 2016 were £39.6 billion. This was a decrease of £5.9 billion (13 per cent) compared with last month, but an increase of £2.2 billion (5.8 per cent) compared with October 2015.
  
• The UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £12.8 billion.
  

Edited 12 December, 2016 by moley

[Scribbler]

Unstoppable force (Leave contingent) vs immovable object (remainers).

[lol-lol]

I prefer to look at some of the positives from the figures rather than 'cherry pick' the doom and gloom.

 

You are cherry picking as October was a relatively less bad month ie only £10B trade deficit rather than the awful £14B for August and September mainly due to the sudden weakening of GB pound post the BREXIT vote.

 

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/oct2016

3-monthly analysis

Between the 3 months to October 2016, the deficit on trade in goods was £37.0 billion, widening by £6.2 billion from the 3 months to July 2016.  Exports increased by £1.5 billion (2.0%) to £76.4 billion in the 3 months to October 2016.

 

I think we all hope that November and December will  be months closer to the October figures for export and imports rather than the August and September but signs are not good as the GBP/USD exchange rate was even worse at 1.23-1.24 whereas in October we were running close to 1.3 for Customs purposes. 

 

 

Is it not sensible to only look for positives but to plan for the realities !   We need to plan specifically for the effects of much higher imports and therefore inflation by preparing for consequences of spending much more on basic shopping, transport etc as well as exploiting the export advantages provide by the devaluing of the UK pound post BREXIT.     

Edited 12 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[moley]

You are cherry picking as October was a relatively less bad month ie only £10B trade deficit rather than the awful £14B for August and September mainly due to the sudden weakening of GB pound post the BREXIT vote.

It was not cherry picking. The graph showed the export/import/trade gap from May 2015 to October 2016 and that was the graph from the link you posted.

[lol-lol]

It was not cherry picking. The graph showed the export/import/trade gap from May 2015 to October 2016 and that was the graph from the link you posted.

 

And does not the graph show that exports have been around the £25B per month for the past year but and that imports have ticked up from the £35B a month to £40 to £45b mark since BREXIT and this directly correlates to the fall in GBP against key international trade currencies ie Dollar, Euro and Yen?

 

Apart from the rather better October 16 figure, which we all hope is a reversal to the steady slide in the GBP which has multiplied up the cost of imports and is feeding into inflation.

 

So how how do you draw solace from the graphs apart from the pause/blip in October 16?

 

Hoping that the UK has an export led recovery and I suppose we, the consumers, will reduce our imports as we simply cannot afford to keep up this level without the UK National Debt climbing even faster than it has been over the last few years from its £1.6T level.   For once I had to agree with Farage on Question Time we simply cannot go on like this and especially with the service sector nervously looking at it access to the EU post actual BREXIT and looking to move to Amsterdam, Dublin, Frankfurt, New York, Paris etc.  We need a plan !      

[Scribbler]

 which we all hope is a reversal to the steady slide in the GBP 

 

You sure you 'hope' this?, because it goes against your infinite wisdom and the general gist of this thread is remainers crossing fingers and toes wishing the economy nose dives to back up their prophesy. If you generally do hope to be proved wrong then that's reassuring because you are in the minority of stubborn remainers. And the media and top 1% are actively trying to derail any chance of success.

Edited 13 December, 2016 by Scribbler

[lol-lol]

You sure you 'hope' this?, because it goes against your infinite wisdom and the general gist of this thread is remainers crossing fingers and toes wishing the economy nose dives to back up their prophesy. If you generally do hope to be proved wrong then that's reassuring because you are in the minority of stubborn remainers. And the media and top 1% are actively trying to derail any chance of success.

 

When you live in Rome you do not want to see Rome burn.

 

It is painful for all of us to see inflation rising so rapidly here in the UK, up to 2.2% for RPI, 1.2% CPI this morning and very clear to see in the shops and petrol station.

 

My source for news tends to Bloomberg via the Sky box though it can be got across the web and their view, as with the financial markets, was/is that the BREXIT vote and BREXIT itself is/will cause a financial hit for UK businesses and individuals in the short and medium term.  Some exporters, who do not have much imports costs, and maybe all of us many years down the line, may see the UK in a better place than if we had stuck with the EU but the signs point to that being well into the next decade if ever.

 

For me a just hope the UK currency recovers enough in the next few years and property resumes it rise at least in line with inflation rather than the drop in real terms it has had since the BREXIT vote, so I can enjoy a nice retirement in Spain in a decade or so time rather than being financially handicapped by the results of the BREXIT vote and my movement hampered also.

Edited 13 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[Scribbler]

When you live in Rome you do not want to see Rome burn.

 

It is painful for all of us to see inflation rising so rapidly here in the UK, up to 2.2% for RPI, 1.2% CPI this morning and very clear to see in the shops and petrol station.

 

My source for news tends to Bloomberg via the Sky box though it can be got across the web and their view, as with the financial markets, was/is that the BREXIT vote and BREXIT itself is/will cause a financial hit for UK businesses and individuals in the short and medium term.  Some exporters, who do not have much imports costs, and maybe all of us many years down the line, may see the UK in a better place than if we had stuck with the EU but the signs point to that being well into the next decade if ever.

 

For me a just hope the UK currency recovers enough in the next few years and UP property resumes it rise at least in line with inflation rather than the drop in real terms it has had since the BREXIT vote, so I can enjoy a nice retirement in Spain in a decade or so time rather than being financially handicapped by the results of the BREXIT vote and my movement hampered also.

 

Well im pretty confident your personal circumstances will be ok by the time you decide to go to Spain etc. But there is one sure fire way of improving your chances and thats injecting some positivity into the situation. Nothing ever got done by being negative and its actually easier to be positive i find than negative. We the public have been groomed for so long to believe we are reliant on external influences and that money is the only factor in happiness. Its difficult for some to even think positively about the future. The fact that things are already looking positive (from my perspective) in the face of this relentless doom and gloom negative forecasting is very reassuring. I still expect things to get worse before they get better but im prepared for it and looking forward to the separation. Although i will still be holidaying in France twice a year don't forget we are still European and connected by locality. Its only a separation in terms of governance.

[gadgetman]

Is it March yet? No?

[Scribbler]

Is it March yet? No?

 

Nope we will have exceeded 99 pages of Lolol's graphs and be on Part 3 by then.

[lol-lol]

Well im pretty confident your personal circumstances will be ok by the time you decide to go to Spain etc. But there is one sure fire way of improving your chances and thats injecting some positivity into the situation. Nothing ever got done by being negative and its actually easier to be positive i find than negative. We the public have been groomed for so long to believe we are reliant on external influences and that money is the only factor in happiness. Its difficult for some to even think positively about the future. The fact that things are already looking positive (from my perspective) in the face of this relentless doom and gloom negative forecasting is very reassuring. I still expect things to get worse before they get better but im prepared for it and looking forward to the separation. Although i will still be holidaying in France twice a year don't forget we are still European and connected by locality. Its only a separation in terms of governance.

 

My industry of international logistics is certainly one industry which is looking like being very busy over the next 2 to 3 years and after that also. We reckon on needing to do about 80% more customs entries from the point of leaving the EU and that means planning and setting up all the enlarged customs clearance systems, training additional staff etc.   I favour reality over baseless positive but my industry will manage I have no doubt as companies like, Allport, Bollore, CEVA, DHL, Expeditors, FEDEX, Hellmann it is something that we do ie fast adaption to the ever changing world of customs.

 

I am disappointed that my foreign holidays is going to cost 10-20% more, my 4K telly I am looking to buy fairly shortly similarly more as with the next car if not next year then the year after also more than it would if we had stayed in the EU.   The predictions by the top economist, and the recent trade data, trend that the UK will be over £100B more in debt on the already staggering £1.6T debt and that inflation will be about a percent higher than it would be if the UK stayed in the UK. Higher shopping bills, higher fuel bills. If our wages match the inflation rise that helps with the last point but the others we will just have to learn to live with.

 

Let us hope that the governance (apart from complying with all the EU Directives on goods which we will have to comply with to sell into the EU but no longer have any say on) is worth all the negative economic aspects we see now. 

[@Lee]

 

Hammond admits Brexit will take too long - and be too expensive - for Britain to stick to the Article 50 timeline

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/philip-hammond-says-britain-will-need-a-transition-deal-before-brexit-2016-12

[Ootohere]

Lets hope that in the future BREXIT benefits the many and not just the few as usual.

Changes for the population and a Life Work balance and less poverty for the many while those that have a very comfortable life and income get an even easier life.

 

Not likely though as the Political Party currently forming the Government will still be buying the votes of those that like how things are now and have been for decades.

No chance in the next few generations that there will be any Socialist Government in the UK.

[theezenutz]

Nope we will have exceeded 99 pages of Lolol's graphs and be on Part 3 by then.

Strange how his form of copy and paste is acceptable yet mine are the work of the Devil

 

Stay strong guy's more fear and propaganda to follow.

Edited 14 December, 2016 by theezenutz

[lol-lol]

Strange how his form of copy and paste is acceptable yet mine are the work of the Devil

 

Stay strong guy's more fear and propaganda to follow.

 

I have had my wrists slapped for over doing the cut and paste.  I try to do just enough to do a taster without plastering so much it extends the web pages and brings the thread to an overload status quicker than otherwise might be, a balancing act which I do always get right.  Disk-space is money.  must renew my Freedom membership, perhaps someone will get me it for Xmas. 

[lol-lol]

Lets hope that in the future BREXIT benefits the many and not just the few as usual.

Changes for the population and a Life Work balance and less poverty for the many while those that have a very comfortable life and income get an even easier life.

Not likely though as the Political Party currently forming the Government will still be buying the votes of those that like how things are now and have been for decades.

No chance in the next few generations that there will be any Socialist Government in the UK.

 

Not likely.  It would be a leopard changing it spots to do so.  We are seeing big rise in the upper tax threshold, lowering corporation tax and apparently higher council tax to pay for a shortage in community care whilst VAT is still 20%, unless you are VAT registered and can claim it back.  The balance continues to be for business and the wealthier portion of society and if the poor continue to waste their vote backing other parties other than the main left wing party then the status quo will continue.  

Edited 14 December, 2016 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

Higher Council Tax in England that is & changes in Higher Tax Bands in Scotland as they get ready to set a budget..

Scotland has new Tax Raising Powers so we will see how that goes.

 

England's NHS / Social Care Funding & Spending plus Local Authority Funding. 

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38286145

 

 

Better Together but a bit apart and with the Bank of England in control or out of control and the UK & various UK  dependencies leaving the EU, lets see.

15th December 2016 'Draft Budget for Scotland 2017/18' 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38288493

Edited 14 December, 2016 by Offski