EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[moley]

Just back from a week working in Paris last week and the some of the workers in the factory didn't appear to be that happy with the EU and the problems with immigration and unemployment etc. French economic growth also at 0.3%. France's debt is at 96% of GDP and unemployment running at 10%.

Interestingly at the polls on Sunday the centre and far right took most of the vote while the Hollande's socialist party polled less than 7% of the vote.

 

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, moley said:

Just back from a week working in Paris last week and the some of the workers in the factory didn't appear to be that happy with the EU and the problems with immigration and unemployment etc. French economic growth also at 0.3%. France's debt is at 96% of GDP and unemployment running at 10%.

Interestingly at the polls on Sunday the centre and far right took most of the vote while the Hollande's socialist party polled less than 7% of the vote.

 

 

It is looking like Macron will be the next French president and he served as Minister for economy and industry in Hollande's Government until last year. Although from business he is slightly left of centre in his political view.

 

France's national debt has risen about 17% of GDP since 2009 compared to the UK's national debt which has risen by 25% of GDP since then.  

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=teina225&plugin=1  

 

France Productivity is about 20% higher than the UK but around 10% less than Germany.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/expert-market-research-on-the-most-productive-countries-in-the-world-2016-7/#13-canada-2030--americas-friends-in-the-great-white-north-have-a-gdp-per-capita-of-34591-and-work-an-average-of-3277-hours-per-week-those-numbers-mean-that-canada-is-beaten-in-the-productivity-stakes-by-the-us-7

 

As one biggest French companies, listed in France with a turnover of 11B Euros, we certainly see a bright future as our core area of international and national logistic in France, with combinations of the BREXIT additional revenue for customs activity (both out of UK and in to France where we are the biggest logistics company) and role out of electric cars in London growing much quicker than even the pickup in inflation with lots of work in 2017 and 2018 in preparation for the 2019 and beyond changes both in customs rules in EU-UK and scaling down of diesel cars and role out of electric vehicles, cars and buses in London and other big UK cities.  

 

       

[moley]

3 hours ago, lol-lol said:

France's national debt has risen about 17% of GDP since 2009 compared to the UK's national debt which has risen by 25% of GDP since then.  

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=teina225&plugin=1  

The French government are currently spending 56.20% of GDP

UK Government currently spending 42.10% of GDP

The German government currently spending 44.30% of GDP

[Laurie61]

7 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

Latest economic data for thew UK shows the slow down in UK GDP (now only 0.3%) and quotes the reasons as the slowdown as spending as people have less disposable income after the BREXIT vote

 

Not sure how useful it is comparing consecutive quarters for monitoring the state of UK economy. If last years first quarter is used, and the year before that,as a comparison they also show reduced activity. A first quarter drop is as much to do with seasonal trends than a sign of reduced demand. Total spending by consumers was about the same indicating there is no measurable pull back of confidence. Manufacturing was also up 0.5%.

 

 

 

[lol-lol]

40 minutes ago, moley said:

The French government are currently spending 56.20% of GDP

UK Government currently spending 42.10% of GDP

The German government currently spending 44.30% of GDP

 

We can see the lack of investment in the UK infrastructure ie education, health and transport and yet despite austerity the UK is still going a further £1B in to debt each week.

 

Germany spends 44.3% but runs a budget surplus of several billions a month. 

 

It is expect Macron will get in and change the French economy with more flexible labour laws.  France has very good healthcare and transport systems and has investment tens of billions in it each year.  I think what will be a big question is what will the French Government invest to cope with customs procedures at Calais particularly?  My company has just opened a 400,000 sq ft facility at Charles de Gaulle and similar at Le Harve but I fear it will be Calais, and therefore Dover, that may be the bottle neck.  If both sides of the Channel wait until the details of BREXIT are clearer, and there is unwilliness to invested some of that GDP in infrastructure, I can see trouble ahead.    

 

    

[lol-lol]

9 minutes ago, Laurie61 said:

 

Not sure how useful it is comparing consecutive quarters for monitoring the state of UK economy. If last years first quarter is used, and the year before that,as a comparison they also show reduced activity. A first quarter drop is as much to do with seasonal trends than a sign of reduced demand. Total spending by consumers was about the same indicating there is no measurable pull back of confidence. Manufacturing was also up 0.5%.

 

 

 

 

 

It is looking over the longer term ie last 45 years since we been in the EU that is interesting and the failure to recover from the 2008-2010 worldwide (but affected UK and US more as more reliant on financial industry) crisis in that we have not had the typical 3, 4 and 5% recover post recession and only had circa 2% GDP growth.  

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10613201

 

 

[moley]

20 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

We can see the lack of investment in the UK infrastructure ie education, health and transport and yet despite austerity the UK is still going a further £1B in to debt each week.

    

The problem is that governments throw money at public services without looking to see if they are getting value for money or solving the problem. As a business I have to consider carefully on what to spend money on and how good a return I will get on my investment. There are too many civil servants who we don't need and not enough of the ones we do need, the NHS is a shinning example. There was a head teacher on the radio the other week saying that, yes the government had put more money into education, but that was swallowed up by pension funds for the staff so next to nothing went on education.

[moley]

As I was saying the French don't appear that in love with the current state of the EU.

Macron says EU must reform or face 'Frexit'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39766334

[@Lee]

How did dinner with Jean Claude Junker go, Mrs. May..........................?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/#4e8c8ade4f04

This story was leaked on Twitter last night

Quote

The UK Government Is Completely Deluded About Brexit

. Original story from FAZ https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=de&u=http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/brexit/eu-kommission-skeptisch-vor-brexit-verhandlungen-14993673.html&prev=search

[Ootohere]

Mi a fasz.

[@Lee]

what!?

[Ootohere]

I know Germans and people that work in Germany or for German companies but i know no German.

 

I hear 'mi a fasz' quite a lot though and no doubt Jean-Claude Juncker does as well.   Hungarian for WTF?

Edited 1 May, 2017 by Awayoffski

[Eddie-NL]

2 hours ago, Lee01 said:

what!?

your halfway there

[moley]

2 hours ago, Lee01 said:

what!?

He improved the design of the steam engine.

[@Lee]

19 minutes ago, Eddie-NL said:

your halfway there

*You're. And if it's Hungarian for WTF I'm a third of the way there

[@Lee]

8 minutes ago, moley said:

He improved the design of the steam engine.

That was James Watt.

[Eddie-NL]

5 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

*You're. And if it's Hungarian for WTF I'm a third of the way there

just testing you, I was to eager to post

 

 

[lol-lol]

Watt?

 

Trevithick. Stephenson and Watt gets all the credits but Trev who made it good!

[@Lee]

 

 

[Clunkclick]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39784170

 

Handbags at dawn . . . but being  a Von (Or a distant rel of a Von), Mr Juncker will only have one repost:-

 

Don't fink the blagging and  scribblings on the back of them fag packets will stand up !

 

Nick

[Ryeman]

 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/world/europe/london-tabloids-brexit.html?emc=edit_ta_20170502&nl=top-stories&nlid=67480003&ref=cta&_r=0

[KenONeill]

So apparently Scotland could remain part of the EU; there's even president in the form of Denmark and Greenland.

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/scotland-could-have-stayed-in-eu-and-uk-post-brexit-1-4435852

[Clunkclick]

This Brexit process . . . if it wasn't so comical, it would be tragic. The way its being handled on both sides, its like a job creation scheme for politicians.

 

This country is fast turning into a global laughing stock.

 

What school of negotiation training did May go to, where the opening gambit is to slag off the opposition before opening talks have commenced ?

 

Nick

 

 

[trundlenut]

12 minutes ago, Clunkclick said:

This Brexit process . . . if it wasn't so comical, it would be tragic. The way its being handled on both sides, its like a job creation scheme for politicians.

 

This country is fast turning into a global laughing stock.

 

What school of negotiation training did May go to, where the opening gambit is to slag off the opposition before opening talks have commenced ?

 

Nick

 

 

One run by Paul Dacre?

[@Lee]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/theresa-may-brexit-tactics-wrong-eu-former-greek-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-a7721151.html