EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Ootohere]

S00perb,

The UK Governments know exactly the cost and how much subsidies 'Slipper Farmers; collect,.  that is the issue, keep the party sponsors happy for a while longer.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40370931 

[@Lee]

2 minutes ago, moley said:

I only ever see the hard core remainers quoting those myths in the posts.

Glad it's not just me that only sees what he wants to see 

[S00perb]

7 minutes ago, Headinawayoffski said:

S00perb,

The UK Governments know exactly the cost and how much subsidies 'Slipper Farmers; collect,.  that is the issue, keep the party sponsors happy for a while longer.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40370931 

 

The farmers round my way are VERY untrusting of weak and wobbly maybot. None I know of support the CONS any more.

If you want to call a farmer slippery to his face - you are a braver (and more stupid) than me

[Ootohere]

'Slipper Farmers',   Conservative mostly, Royal even...

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-37503895 

Sam Cams family / relatives & her Husbands, and plenty others.

‘Brexit’ Threatens Subsidies for U.K.’s Landed Gentry, and Queen - The New York Times.mhtml

Edited 27 October, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[moley]

16 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

Glad it's not just me that only sees what he wants to see 

Well. you said it.

The decades of the anti EU papers drip-feeding people anti EU nonsense on light bulbs and vacuum cleaners and bendy bananas and cabbage regulations?

[lol-lol]

 

Any good economic facets of BREXIT emerging yet, or in the next several months/years; any, anyone ?

 

Anything, any particular aspect?

 

(Except for:-

1. the UK government who will be allowed to collect a whole bunch more (import) taxes on consumers to help balance the way out of their imbalance in the books over the last 9 years
2. a relatively small number of exporters
3. and those involved in the new "industry" of customs clearances 
4. and of course the £10B membership fee of the EU but that is way less than the UK will need to spend to access the EU market post BREXIT of course)

Edited 28 October, 2017 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

If the European Investment Bank as some reports say are going to take decades to pay back to the UK the Billions that the UK have with them then good and well, the UK can pay the EU on the drip / never never as well.

 

Pyramid Banking going on i think, money is all on a computer and in figures on spread sheets and does not exist in Gold in Bank Vaults.

The EU & the European Central Bank is like the World Bank, lots of Kidology going on and castles built on sand.

Edited 28 October, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[Sad555]

I’ve just spent the last couple of hours having a drink  and a chat with old friends and putting the world to rights,I now feel very relaxed and wish I could pass this feeling on to this topic . Of late it appears to become very wound up let’s all chill and start again be reasonable respect and start again........thank god for the free bus pass and  doombar.    .....£2 .69a pint.          This is what the Eu negoeations need ..........,-II 

[@Lee]

And in that jovial spirit...........

 

Quote

Turning the clocks back one hour is a cynical attempt by the government to keep us in the EU for longer, insist right-wing ****wits.

http://newsthump.com/2017/10/28/clocks-going-back-means-brexit-is-delayed-by-another-full-hour-moan-brexiters/

 

[lol-lol]

13 hours ago, Sad555 said:

I’ve just spent the last couple of hours having a drink  and a chat with old friends and putting the world to rights,I now feel very relaxed and wish I could pass this feeling on to this topic . Of late it appears to become very wound up let’s all chill and start again be reasonable respect and start again........thank god for the free bus pass and  doombar.    .....£2 .69a pint.          This is what the Eu negoeations need ..........,-II 

 

More likely the feeling of a hangover after a night one regrets.  Not a single existing trade deal that a country had with the 28 Member State EU has said it will sign a similar deal with the UK to continue on after BREXIT.   Whilst the UK is going to have to allow several country's good in at zero or reduced rate under the General System of Preference.   There will be a surge before the customs tariffs goes up to bring goods in before that time and then the cold reality of BREXIT like the regret of just what one did when drunk the night before with mis-placed euphoria of claiming superiority and realizing one has lost a whole bunch of friends by what one has said and done.

 

 

    

[@Lee]

Quote

Unsurprisingly, the Daily Mail spreads more EU-linked lies than anyone else. But it’s not just right-wing tabloids that are guilty. The Daily Telegraph also performs well on this measure, and even the BBC has had its wrist slapped on occasion. 

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/daily-chart-15?fsrc=scn%2Ftw_ec%2Fdebunking_years_of_tabloid_claims_about_europe
http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

[@Lee]

Quote

The analysis in this HM Treasury document quantifies the impact of that adjustment over the immediate period of two years following a vote to leave. Such a vote would trigger a redefinition not only of the UK’s economic relationship with the EU and the rest of the world, but also of much of the UK’s domestic economic policy, regulatory and legislative framework. A vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock creating instability and uncertainty which would be compounded by the complex and interdependent negotiations that would follow. The central conclusion of the analysis is that the effect of this profound shock would be to push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

[@Lee]

The above document mentions this previous one from a month earlier 
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

Quote

It is widely accepted that leaving the EU would mean a new relationship based on one of the following models: • membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway • a negotiated bilateral agreement, like those of Switzerland, Turkey or Canada, or • membership of the World Trade Organization without any specific agreement with the EU No country has been able to negotiate any other sort of deal, and it would not be in the EU’s interest to agree one. The conclusions of this document are clear: none of the alternatives support trade and provide influence on the world stage in the same way as continued membership of a reformed EU; and all of them come with serious economic costs that would affect businesses, jobs, living standards and our public finances for decades to come. To put it simply, families would be substantially worse off if Britain leaves the EU.

Quote

If we take as a central assumption that the UK would seek a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Canada has, the costs to Britain are clear. Based on the Treasury’s estimates, our GDP would be 6.2% lower, families would be £4,300 worse off and our tax receipts would face an annual £36 billion black hole. This is more than a third of the NHS budget and equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax. This analysis shows a vote to remain is therefore the best way to ensure the continued growth of the UK economy and future prosperity for this and future generations. Britain is stronger, safer and better off in the EU. I hope that armed with these facts, the people of Britain will feel better informed and able to make this historic choice with confidence.

My emphasis.

[S00perb]

18 hours ago, Lee01 said:

The above document mentions this previous one from a month earlier 
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf

My emphasis.

BUT, according to my mother:

It is all worth it because we will get our sovereigns back (or something like that), we will be able to control our borders (in some way more than we do now), we will get inches and pounds back, get rid of those white foreigners and be able to spot the real foreigners better and concentrate on dealing with them. We will get the commonwealth back and rule the waves again.

ANYONE can afford £4300 extra a year from their savings and money lost to the NHS is going to be saved because there wont be so many nurses cos they will have gone home. AND the EU is going to give us ALL the money back we ever spent with them just so they can sell us cars.

(She reads the Daily Mail btw)

 

Now I KNOW not all leavers are Mail readers; but Murdock sells this carp to many people. I worked with a real nice guy who said he only read the Mail for the sport coverage and knew the paper was full of rubbish. BUT he seemed to agree with Murdock on most things too.

 

Taking Mail readers out of the equation;

Yes; many many people had real and intense feelings about European workers in this country. I get that. Is that acceptable? Of course not. If people are made to feel that way, something has gone seriously wrong. What went wrong? Well personally I believe the money they brought in was used in the wrong way. Part of it should have been spent on extra services. But it wasn't spent that way. Hey, if you had to put up with a new house mate who happened to bring with them a real nice coffee maker, massive TV and a sister who you really fancied - thier odd accent doesn't seem so bad. Europe's fault? Probably not. Is leaving the EU the ONLY solution to this? Really? Of course not. There are loads of other things we could try. Maybe we should have tried them first.

 

The UK is not perfect, it's sometimes fun to point out its failings. Nowhere is perfect. BUT the UK has genuine strengths and I certainly do not denigrate patriotism. Neither do I think it's us or them. Every country has to trade, protectionism has always been the blight of co-operation, the seed of mistrust and often the prequel to wars. Has the EU stopped wars? Who can know for sure. But personally I feel a bit safer within than without. It's not hard to imagine a few years from now and our PM claiming that we are going hungry because of X country and we get more and more rhetorical about something unrelated 'they' have done. It can be so easy to blame someone else and end up in real strife with them.

 

I have worked for small and large organisations. Public sector, private sector and non-profit. They all have their advantages and disadvantages. One disadvantage of the massive organisations like the EU is that they can be extremely slow in changing direction - just like a big ship. Its bad at reacting in an emergency compared with a small organisation or small ship. BUT it is extreamly predictable, just like a big ship, it changes direction very slowly and everyone can see where it is headed. A small ship can change direction and cause a crash and sink within seconds. A big ship can't make that kind of mistake. I seriously think many people are frightened of the EU, not because of what it is doing right now - but what they think it MAY do in the future (EU army, federalisation etc.). BUT it can't do anything quickly. The EU is NOT perfect. Far from it. But do I believe that the EU is ill-designed, dysfuntional, furiously resistant to change and unnecessary for most international cooperation outside the realm of trade? No. Its not that I think the EU represents everything that’s good in the world BUT on balance, I personally believe it is better to change something from inside than from outside. Change with the EU will never be fast, but it will be extreamly predictable.

 

The EU is highly likely to continue with or without us. If people don't like parts of the EU, we certainly won't be able to change it from outside. Likewise, the idea that the UK leaving will end the whole EU project, is unlikely. Even if it DID end, something would eventually replace it. And even if that something was perfect and we wanted to be part of it - would they want us? The people that messed up the last project?

 

[lol-lol]

The UK government faces a new £20 billion budget black hole

http://uk.businessinsider.com/budget-2017-ifs-says-uk-government-faces-new-20-billion-black-hole-2017-10

 

• IFS warns the UK budget deficit could hit £36 billion by 2020/21 — nearly £20 billion higher than forecast by budget watchdog earlier this year.
• Persistently low productivity makes forecast downgrade a realistic prospect.

---

LONDON — UK Chancellor Philip Hammond faces a new £20 billion deficit black hole, according to a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).  The think tank said on Monday that the UK's budget deficit could be as much as £20 billion higher than forecast by 2020/21 when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) — the government's budget watchdog —downgrades productivity forecasts.   The OBR said at the start of this month that it will have to "significantly" lower its estimates for UK productivity, writing down past estimates of productivity.   The budget deficit is the annual sum the government borrows to meet any shortfall between incoming tax receipts and its spending. In March this year, the OBR forecast that the UK deficit would be cut to £17 billion by 2020/21.  The IFS predicts that the OBR will revise that forecast up to around £36 billion if the UK does not solve its long-running productivity problem, something which has been attributed to factors including a chronic lack of investment, low interest rates, and quantitative easing.  Chancellor Philip Hammond pledged last year to eliminate the deficit entitely by the mid-2020s, but that is contingent on the country's productivity performance. The £20 billion black hole is based on the "very poor" scenario in the two charts below:

 

Edited 30 October, 2017 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

Just another 'New Blackhole',  easily filled with adding more to the Trillions of borrowings and debt then!

Is the UK Bankrupt yet and trading while insolvent, ready to go into administration by your employers?

[lol-lol]

57 minutes ago, Headinawayoffski said:

Just another 'New Blackhole',  easily filled with adding more to the Trillions of borrowings and debt then!

Is the UK Bankrupt yet and trading while insolvent, ready to go into administration by your employers?

 

The question is whether international lenders will continue to lend the UK and at what rate when the future us uncertain......

 

 

 

 

[Ootohere]

Yes they will because they lend so that the UK can buy.

The majority of world lending is from China and other Middle & Far Eastern countries, and those are the Countries who have invested in the UK and are buying up more commerce cheaply.

 

So just like all lenders have done, lend to those least likely to be able to pay more than minimum amount. 

(UK's 'legal loan sharks'  Banks / financial institutions

 until recently in the UK where Lenders that were just lending to almost anyone, & are being penalised now for lending without checking the ability of those borrowing to pay back.)

Edited 30 October, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[CWARD]

Jeremy Corbyn seems to think it is a great idea to borrow money as the rate is so low (no mention of rates going up). Then he'll be able to buy his train sets and utilities companies so he best hope we can be loaned money for his spending spree.

 

[Ootohere]

UK Politicians, Ex Politicians / Peers etc never had an issue with Plebs borrowing when it was Pension Scheme Investments & Hard Working peoples investments getting no interest and their Capital wittered away on Management Fees & Bonuses and paying PPI back etc, Sub Prime lending,

and they the Grandees profited with their Investments not losing anything, now they crap themselves because it is their Monies in Tax Havens / Offshore Investments that might fall through the floor.  (Not at all those trees planted forv the childrens investment / future has lost them anything.)

& not that Lord Heseltine, Philip Hammond MP, Theresa May MP & Husband and others need to worry at being left destitute.

Or Tony Blair, Lord Darling, Gordon Brown, George Osborne, Sir Danny Alexander, Sir Vince of the Cable.

 

Edited 30 October, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[lol-lol]

 

Sadly the UK is much more in debt now than it was in 2010 but fortunately the interests rate which the Uk can borrow did get as low as 1% pa but is now rising again so due to the failure of the last two government to get the UK out of the world recession, the slowest recovery in a century, and with interest rate rise due in the UK and US then it is a difficult future made substantially worse by BREXIT.  

 

Giving money to the few already wealthy and they will invest in pension etc which has a large overseas investment element, give it to the many and more of it will be spend in the UK. 

[Ootohere]

When are they going after all that Bonuses earned by those mis-selling PPI,  must have been many Billions income at the sales, bonuses paid, 

and yet savers are paying for the fraud, people that never cleared the debt on Money Borrowed are getting compensation.

Personally i know a few that never paid the debt and yet are getting thousands in for PPI agreements they had.

[@Lee]

5 hours ago, CWARD said:

Jeremy Corbyn seems to think it is a great idea to borrow money as the rate is so low (no mention of rates going up). Then he'll be able to buy his train sets and utilities companies so he best hope we can be loaned money for his spending spree.

 

It's already been shown to you that Labour have a better grip of things when it comes to fiscal responsibility.

And as for renationalisation, especially of the railways, what's the problem?
Privatisation hasn't worked out that great has it?
Worst and most expensive network in Europe IIRC.
You can't have a competitive service if only one company can run in each area, can you.

[CWARD]

Nationalised railways didn’t work either unless you enjoyed travelling on clapped trains that would often be cancelled due to failure or industrial action. 

Not sure where you’ve seen Jeremy Corbyn Labour have a better grip of fiscal responsibility as they’ve not had any yet

[lol-lol]

4 hours ago, Headinawayoffski said:

When are they going after all that Bonuses earned by those mis-selling PPI,  must have been many Billions income at the sales, bonuses paid, 

and yet savers are paying for the fraud, people that never cleared the debt on Money Borrowed are getting compensation.

Personally i know a few that never paid the debt and yet are getting thousands in for PPI agreements they had.

 

Labour introduced a Bank's Bonus tax about a decade ago and it was raising between 2 and 3 billion a year but it was cancelled when the Cons got in.

 

Bonuses have got more more sophisticated, although they can still be 200% of a standard year's salary, and that salary can well be quarter, half or a full million pounds of course.  The payment of "the bonus" is often now in April so it is in the new tax year and also the bonus will be paid in a mixture of cash but also shares and post dated reward based on future share price, as long as there is no outstanding litigation against their historic actions.

 

Pretty much a bowl of cherries as long as you fit the profile to get into those jobs.

 

A few of them not too happy about BREXIT if they are in one of those sections that has to re-locate to stay inside the EU, to move away from little Jonny who is following in Daddy's Alma Mater school/Uni !    Can always pop back on the weekends on Eurostar or a plane.