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EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2


john999boy

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2 hours ago, Ryeman said:

It’s a $US story at the moment and their PEs are around 22......thin ice for the world’s economy. 

Then there’s Trump.

 

It is the anticipation that the US will do half a dozen or more interest rate rises in the next 2 years.  

What effect will this have on other countries Central bank interest rates ie follow or suffer the consequences?

With BREXIT already weakening the UK currency and feeding in to inflation what choice will the Con government make?  

 

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The thin ice is the threat interest rate rises will have on stock values and with so much leverage I wouldn’t want a big mortgage on an overvalued house.  Trump isn’t interested in history either.   Nothing to learn apparently.

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On 19/05/2018 at 13:09, FurryFriend said:

When we joined The Maastricht Treaty it was on the understanding that it was a TRADE agreement beneficial to all members. It broadly worked.

 

 

100% agree

AND it still works

The only rules that the EU countries, collectively, agreed to are in relation to that fair trade to continue to work.

Why do there need to be ANY changes you may ask: because we collectively want working conditions to improve throughout the EU.

BUT if only one country improves working conditions or one does not improve them, then there is no more equality throughout the EU when it comes to trade. i.e. one country can produce things cheaper than another. So we collectively agree to ALL improving conditions.

Its not the fat cats that want to improve working conditions, its the fat cats that DON'T want to improve condiditons and hey ho, the UK has decided to help the fat cats out by leaving the EU and letting the fat cats have their own way while somehow tricking you into thinking it is all for your own good.

But this discussion does not come down to logic, it comes down to rhetoric. Brextreamists FEEL they have to believe what they believe, they have NO FACTS to back their feelings up. Just rhetorical repetition of catch phrases that actually mean nothing at all 'brexit means brexit', 'controlling our borders', 'bringing back control', 'soverentieeeee', 'they took our jawwwbs'

 

We have ALWAYS had the choise not to implement EU rules. The UK has always had the option to decide NOT to implement rules from the EU - take the working time directive, we decided we wanted an opt out, and we got it. The crazy thing is - WHY would we want it? Whay the hell would we want to make people work for so many hours they cxan't do a good job? Its a con by fat cats to make ytouy think YOU will benefit from working haf to death.

And the media helps continue making you think you need that exemption:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/7066898/Britains-working-time-directive-opt-out-under-threat.html

Quote

Britain's working time directive 'opt-out' under threat

The European Commission, which begins a new term in office on Feb 10, is planning to revise the Working Time Directive, controversial legislation that dictates a maximum working week of 48 hours.

 

Do you REALLY WANT a doctor to work longer then that and then operate on you?

Surely you want your doctor to have at least the same number of breaks as lorry drivers?

But no, this is some kind of sign that the EU is out to GET YOU!!!!!!!

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The UK had the early General Election & the Conservative & Unionists got to form the Government with the DUP assistance, 

so it is for them to pick a new leader surely at their expense not the UK voters to have to vote again in a General Election.

 

As to this 'European Research Group' that seems to think they are in control there is something far wrong there with that set up in the Conservative v& Unionist.

Needs investigation into how much they get from the public purse and from overseas donors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group 

Edited by Offski
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I do hope they aren't planning to throw an election, leaving Corbyn to figure out Brexit....

 

To be fair, if I was the PM, I'd do it.  She's in a no win situation. She'll never be remembered as a successful PM.  Why bother. Retirement and the after dinner circuit beckons.

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Jezza could smash it out of the park by doing a cheeky pivot. Put Brexit back to a referendum. 60%+ approval ratings in a heartbeat. These plus the labour brexit supporters  (most couldn't physically scratch an x in the Tory box if they tried) would make him a very popular PM all of a sudden.  He could even sell it as "I want to know the will of the people, not the results of Tory lies and tricks".

 

The knee-jerk market rebound upon cancellation of Brexit would make him look like a fiscal genius even if it's same old labour spending policies.

Edited by dg360
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21 hours ago, Ryeman said:

The thin ice is the threat interest rate rises will have on stock values and with so much leverage I wouldn’t want a big mortgage on an overvalued house.  Trump isn’t interested in history either.   Nothing to learn apparently.

 

Certainly are some signs that that property prices in the London/SE Area are in line for a big fall and it appears no co-incidence that many high paid jobs are moving to Frankfurt, Paris etc and Britain is experiencing prices inflation without wages keeping up.   Figures below partially hide the big fall in London.

 

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/April-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

ANNUAL HOUSE PRICE GROWTH AT 2.2% +2.2% Annual change -0.1% Quarterly change -3.1% Monthly change £220,962 Average Price

 

• Prices in the last three months to April were 2.2% higher than in the same three months a year earlier, down from the 2.7% annual growth recorded in March • House prices in the latest quarter (February-April) were 0.1% lower than in the preceding three months (November-January), the third consecutive decline on this measure • On a monthly basis, prices fell by 3.1% in April, following a 1.6% rise in March, reflecting the volatility in the short term monthly measure Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said: "We’ve seen annual house price growth ease from 2.7% in March to 2.2% in April. House prices in the three months to April were 0.1% lower than the previous three months. Both the quarterly and annual rates have fallen since reaching a recent peak last autumn, with these measures providing a more stable indication of the underlying trend than the monthly change. “Housing demand has softened in the early months of 2018, with both mortgage approvals and completed home sales edging down. Housing supply – as measured by the stock of homes for sale and new instructions – is also still very low. However, the UK labour market is performing strongly with unemployment continuing to fall and wage growth finally picking up.

These factors should help to ease pressure on household finances and as a result we expect annual price growth will remain in our forecast range 0-3% this year.”

 

End of silly prices in London.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/house-prices-slip-property-transactions-collapse/

 

London is the only region of England and Wales where prices have fallen on an annual basis (down 2.5 per cent). The average property in the capital is now £601,808 — this is £15,415 lower than a year ago.

 

London voted mostly to stay in the EU and many Londoners do not want to move their lives to another European city but face the choice of not only their job going but the value of their homes. 

 

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LOL, London house prices are going to become affordable for those on average incomes, or just those buying to let on Airbnb.

People that worked in the finance industries are just going to punt cheaply the properties they have in the UK.  Not!

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2 minutes ago, Offski said:

LOL, London house prices are going to become affordable for those on average incomes, or just those buying to let on Airbnb.

People that worked in the finance industries are just going to punt cheaply the properties they have in the UK.  Not!

 

Like many Aberdeen salaries the London salaries are usually much higher in many areas including the civil service ie called London Weighting.

 

Successive governments have looked to save the public purchase billions by moving jobs to Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle to save money as the private sector has to places like Bristol.

 

There is always a tax strategy available to affect prices, stamp duty etc, not much will as Con voters love to see their house values go up.   

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Offski said:

LOL, London house prices are going to become affordable for those on average incomes, or just those buying to let on Airbnb.

People that worked in the finance industries are just going to punt cheaply the properties they have in the UK.  Not!

London...........that’s Russia’s preferred money laundering centre it seems.

Principle or principal?.

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lol-lol .   Civil Servants, & those in well paid jobs,   

you forget those that work in hotels, tourism, shops, cafes, offices, trades, nhs, carers, education, and all the rest of the jobs that keep cities going.

All in Aberdeen are not Oil workers, and all in London do not earn more than £8 an hour.

Edited by Offski
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great summary of where the UK and its government currently stands https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/free-movement-of-people-or-a-sea-border-the-insoluble-brexit-dilemma

"

Often in life we allow ourselves to be consumed by the complexity of a problem while ignoring the basic simplicity which transcends it. A complex challenge offers us hope that we may, through sheer force or wit, discover a solution. A simple one disempowers us with stark options that we may take or leave, but not change.

Brexit is the mother of all problems and the Irish border is its insoluble core. It is insoluble because the UK government is currently making too many demands and offering too few concessions. It is resolutely failing to take into account the weakness of its position and the strength of its partners’ resolve.

Senior officials and political figures that I have spoken to are clearer than ever in their assessment. The choice now open to Theresa May is simple and crushing: the whole UK either participates in the full customs union and single market, or it erects a sea border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Bluntly: we accept full free movement of people from the EU, or we impose trade barriers inside the UK.

Here’s why. For historical, political and economic reasons, Dublin will not tolerate a hard—which means an in any way visible—border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. For Northern Ireland after Brexit, avoiding tariff and rules-of-origin checks will require a full customs union, and avoiding regulatory checks on agricultural and manufactured products will require a single market in goods. Anything else will necessitate an internal frontier.

It then follows that if the whole UK does not align on goods with Northern Ireland and Ireland, there will have to be a tariff and regulation wall in the Irish Sea.

But that is not enough. The EU will not allow the UK to compromise the integrity of the single market by participating for goods alone. It will be seen across the bloc as another form of cakeism. If the whole UK wishes to apply the free movement of goods to prevent an Irish Sea border, it will also have to apply the free movement of services, capital—and people.

If the UK refuses this choice, then it must self-immolate with no European Union deal at all—an outcome which removes us from every EU umbrella without any domestic replacement, and crashes the economy, grounds planes and halts nuclear material overnight. This is not blackmail. This is the consequence of following the rules.

On a recent visit I saw that even a sign welcoming people to ‘Northern’ Ireland had been defaced

The UK accepts the need for an open border on the island of Ireland, but none of its options allows for it. The “maximum facilitation” customs solution requires physical technological infrastructure which immediately renders it unacceptable to Ireland, and therefore the EU. The customs partnership involves a byzantine layer of bureaucracy which will take a decade to implement and still leave key EU questions unanswered. And the government refuses even to consider the single market, which is perhaps the most vital component of all.

The fundamental driver of the border problem is peace in Northern Ireland, but too many Brexiters either don’t know or don’t want to know. They traduce or dismiss the Good Friday Agreement and breezily accuse opponents of fabricating the predicament for political ends. Such an attitude adds arrogant insult to colonial injury.

Northern Ireland’s peace is fragile and delicately balanced. Infrastructure is seen as interfering with people’s rights to be Irish citizens. On a recent visit I saw that even a sign welcoming people to “Northern” Ireland had been defaced. Senior Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) officers warn that the most minimal of infrastructure, such as cameras, would require round-the-clock supervision. Deeply provocative, and expensive too—while the PSNI’s budget has been cut by £140m in the past four years.

The Irish government is not seeking to annex Northern Ireland or to divide the UK. The only people dividing the UK are its ministers privileging global trade deals and cuts to EU immigration over the integrity of the Good Friday Agreement. They may do well to heed a recent poll suggesting that Northern Irish voters would choose Irish unification over hard Brexit.

The Irish government’s interest is an open border and the EU’s interest is maintaining the integrity of the single market. That also means not permitting the UK to cherry-pick it.

Contrary to some British ministers’ allegations, neither Dublin nor Brussels has any interest in holding the UK “hostage.” Each side has objectives. Unfortunately for the UK, the other side is more powerful.

On Sunday the prime minister promised to deliver an open Irish border, frictionless trade, and third-country trade deals. She can either have the first two or the third. You cannot promise something not in your gift with a purse of political capital you have already discarded. The EU demands solutions for the border at the next summit in seven weeks. The withdrawal treaty needs to be wrapped up four months after that. If Theresa May concedes the need for soft Brexit inside the single market and customs union, she will be removed by the Brexit hardliners. If she concedes the alternative need for a sea border, she will be removed by the DUP and unionist MPs across the House. That is an insoluble problem for her, but one entirely of her own making.

Brexit’s complexity is excruciating, but its simplicity is devastating. We want too many things that more powerful people tell us we can’t have. At its heart is a problem of competing interests and asymmetric power. For the first time in centuries, the United Kingdom finds itself with an inexorable deficit—and still hasn’t realised it. No matter. The moment for promises has passed. Brexit means choices, and it is time to make them."

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26 minutes ago, domhnall said:

great summary of where the UK and its government currently stands https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/free-movement-of-people-or-a-sea-border-the-insoluble-brexit-dilemma

"

Often in life we allow ourselves to be consumed by the complexity of a problem while ignoring the basic simplicity which transcends it. A complex challenge offers us hope that we may, through sheer force or wit, discover a solution. A simple one disempowers us with stark options that we may take or leave, but not change.

Brexit is the mother of all problems and the Irish border is its insoluble core. It is insoluble because the UK government is currently making too many demands and offering too few concessions. It is resolutely failing to take into account the weakness of its position and the strength of its partners’ resolve.

Senior officials and political figures that I have spoken to are clearer than ever in their assessment. The choice now open to Theresa May is simple and crushing: the whole UK either participates in the full customs union and single market, or it erects a sea border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Bluntly: we accept full free movement of people from the EU, or we impose trade barriers inside the UK.

Here’s why. For historical, political and economic reasons, Dublin will not tolerate a hard—which means an in any way visible—border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. For Northern Ireland after Brexit, avoiding tariff and rules-of-origin checks will require a full customs union, and avoiding regulatory checks on agricultural and manufactured products will require a single market in goods. Anything else will necessitate an internal frontier.

It then follows that if the whole UK does not align on goods with Northern Ireland and Ireland, there will have to be a tariff and regulation wall in the Irish Sea.

But that is not enough. The EU will not allow the UK to compromise the integrity of the single market by participating for goods alone. It will be seen across the bloc as another form of cakeism. If the whole UK wishes to apply the free movement of goods to prevent an Irish Sea border, it will also have to apply the free movement of services, capital—and people.

If the UK refuses this choice, then it must self-immolate with no European Union deal at all—an outcome which removes us from every EU umbrella without any domestic replacement, and crashes the economy, grounds planes and halts nuclear material overnight. This is not blackmail. This is the consequence of following the rules.

On a recent visit I saw that even a sign welcoming people to ‘Northern’ Ireland had been defaced

The UK accepts the need for an open border on the island of Ireland, but none of its options allows for it. The “maximum facilitation” customs solution requires physical technological infrastructure which immediately renders it unacceptable to Ireland, and therefore the EU. The customs partnership involves a byzantine layer of bureaucracy which will take a decade to implement and still leave key EU questions unanswered. And the government refuses even to consider the single market, which is perhaps the most vital component of all.

The fundamental driver of the border problem is peace in Northern Ireland, but too many Brexiters either don’t know or don’t want to know. They traduce or dismiss the Good Friday Agreement and breezily accuse opponents of fabricating the predicament for political ends. Such an attitude adds arrogant insult to colonial injury.

Northern Ireland’s peace is fragile and delicately balanced. Infrastructure is seen as interfering with people’s rights to be Irish citizens. On a recent visit I saw that even a sign welcoming people to “Northern” Ireland had been defaced. Senior Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) officers warn that the most minimal of infrastructure, such as cameras, would require round-the-clock supervision. Deeply provocative, and expensive too—while the PSNI’s budget has been cut by £140m in the past four years.

The Irish government is not seeking to annex Northern Ireland or to divide the UK. The only people dividing the UK are its ministers privileging global trade deals and cuts to EU immigration over the integrity of the Good Friday Agreement. They may do well to heed a recent poll suggesting that Northern Irish voters would choose Irish unification over hard Brexit.

The Irish government’s interest is an open border and the EU’s interest is maintaining the integrity of the single market. That also means not permitting the UK to cherry-pick it.

Contrary to some British ministers’ allegations, neither Dublin nor Brussels has any interest in holding the UK “hostage.” Each side has objectives. Unfortunately for the UK, the other side is more powerful.

On Sunday the prime minister promised to deliver an open Irish border, frictionless trade, and third-country trade deals. She can either have the first two or the third. You cannot promise something not in your gift with a purse of political capital you have already discarded. The EU demands solutions for the border at the next summit in seven weeks. The withdrawal treaty needs to be wrapped up four months after that. If Theresa May concedes the need for soft Brexit inside the single market and customs union, she will be removed by the Brexit hardliners. If she concedes the alternative need for a sea border, she will be removed by the DUP and unionist MPs across the House. That is an insoluble problem for her, but one entirely of her own making.

Brexit’s complexity is excruciating, but its simplicity is devastating. We want too many things that more powerful people tell us we can’t have. At its heart is a problem of competing interests and asymmetric power. For the first time in centuries, the United Kingdom finds itself with an inexorable deficit—and still hasn’t realised it. No matter. The moment for promises has passed. Brexit means choices, and it is time to make them."

Give this man an award 

Consider and spoken with clarity.

 

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Obviously a hard line Remainer who merely repeats the rubbish perpetrated by other hard line Remainers.  The solutions are so simple but sadly both sides UK and EU don't have any politicians with either the willingness or the balls to cut through the crap and move it forward for the benefit of both sides.  Any negotiations are a total waste of time if the EU is not prepared to compromise in anyway.  It will be interesting to see how close to the brink they are prepared to go before they see sense.

 

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1 hour ago, Charliesbus said:

Obviously a hard line Remainer who merely repeats the rubbish perpetrated by other hard line Remainers.  The solutions are so simple but sadly both sides UK and EU don't have any politicians with either the willingness or the balls to cut through the crap and move it forward for the benefit of both sides.  Any negotiations are a total waste of time if the EU is not prepared to compromise in anyway.  It will be interesting to see how close to the brink they are prepared to go before they see sense.

 

Somebody else who's completely and utterly delusional,WTF exactly do you think England is ?,it's a little country Vs the whole of Europe.

Let's make a very crude analogy I'm going to have a game of football level playing field it's just SUPER ME Vs the other 26

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1 hour ago, Charliesbus said:

 It will be interesting to see how close to the brink they are prepared to go before they see sense.

 

It's a bad idea to play chicken with a juggernaut. 

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England is a little country against the whole of Europe.

 

The countries of the EU are not the whole of Europe. 

Still waiting to see what producers from EU countries including Ireland and then producers / importers from non EU but European Countries have to say if the EU messes up them trading into the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland.

 

Little old England, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland are traders globally and have imports and exports and purchasing power to buy goods, 

and EU exporters will still want the cash money in what ever currency.

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I can totally understand where this caller was coming from. MY doctors surgery was once in Shirebrook. The only doctors I knew where you didn't have to make an appointment, you just turned up and waited no more than 15 min - usually 1 or 2.

SportsDIrect turned up and engaged the services of an Easter European employment agency and suddenly houses that had 3 rooms and 1 or 2 people living in them were being rented out to 10 people. The doctors surgery MUST have changed from the days I knew it.

BUT

Who is to blame?

As the caller states, not the guys who moved into the area for the work - "they are sound" states the caller

The problem was the extra income from all the extra taxes being paid and the massive profits being made on the backs of that cheap labour was not being put back into investing in the infrastructure. It's as simple as that.

IF Shirebrook got an extra school, bigger doctors surgery, etc etc. People would have not had any problems.

 

 

 

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So, this is H.M. Governments plans for 'frictionless trade' is it. Right. Nice one. Avoid the South East for the foreseeable then..........
 

Quote

In a written ministerial statement, which makes no mention of Brexit, the transport minister Jesse Norman said: “The department has now agreed with Highways England that this arrangement should take the form of a contraflow system which would see lorries for the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel held on the coast-bound carriageway between junctions eight and nine of the M20, while other traffic will use a contraflow to continue their journey on the other side of the motorway.”

He said Highways England was starting preparatory works for the scheme, which would be available from early 2019. The government would also launch a consultation to seek views on other potential overnight lorry parks for up to 1,500 vehicles, Norman said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/21/m20-lorry-park-counter-brexit-traffic-jams-channel-dover

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8 hours ago, Lee01 said:

So, this is H.M. Governments plans for 'frictionless trade' is it. Right. Nice one. Avoid the South East for the foreseeable then..........
 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/21/m20-lorry-park-counter-brexit-traffic-jams-channel-dover

 

As the Port of Dover can process up to 10,000 trucks a day and the time to process a truck with customs processing at Dover is about ten times longer than a non-customs process then 1,500 queue is on the low side.

 

It is not only the queue for the export declarations out of the UK but the import declaration on imports which Continental lorry drivers will need to rest up after delays on inbound customs.

 

French Customs are recruiting and training 250 extra Officers for BREXIT, Holland has recruited over a thousand for BREXIT and the the new Union Customs Code changes that Britain is also implementing, despite leaving, but the UK has only recruited for UCC and not BREXIT yet. 

 

Frictionless border is still technically about 5 years away my industry has told HMRC.  It will have to be still quite manual, electronic declarations but percentage physical checks and processing.        

Edited by lol-lol
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21 hours ago, Offski said:

lol-lol .   Civil Servants, & those in well paid jobs,   

you forget those that work in hotels, tourism, shops, cafes, offices, trades, nhs, carers, education, and all the rest of the jobs that keep cities going.

All in Aberdeen are not Oil workers, and all in London do not earn more than £8 an hour.

 

Not at all, big fan of £10 minimum wage and not just for 25 year olds but 18 year olds, with fuel at almost £1.30 a litre we need so more fairness.

 

All my kids have been on the receiving end of minimum wage, or zero pay work experience costing them to go to work.

 

Is Aberdeen also home to massive financial companies, almost as much as Edinburgh.  

 

Fairer tax system, ditch Trident for starters.   

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Apparently Russian defence aircraft penetrated Swedish airspace recently and subsequently they seem to be seeking greater protection under the NATO umbrella by way of full membership.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/sweden-to-send-war-pamphlet-to-4-8-mn-households-118052200439_1.html

and

https://www.cnn.com/2017/03/02/europe/sweden-conscription/index.html

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