EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[Pilotguy]

The Great Debate on BBC One nationwide now.

[gadgetman]

We hear these Jackanorys all the time.

If Conservatives get in, if Labour gets in, if Scotland gets Independence.

Funny thing is others will be arriving if the UK leaves or not.

You might as well name the Major Companies that told you that they will leave,

obviously not that market sensitive unless you are a real insider.

Not going to have them investigated if you cause a crash in their share prices....

George, if it is a leave vote every one will know in a few weeks time I'm sure.

Most companies will have costed shuttering UK operations. Any cross border company who says otherwise is lying.

[Pilotguy]

Strong, positive message fro the Leave representatives which appeals to me. I'm really turned off by the Remain negative slant.

[Pilotguy]

Just heard another point that boggles the mind! Why would a company agree to a contract with a clause that means they lose an order if we vote to leave? If it's true it just means to me, in my naïveté, that they are then free to sell the product/service they're producing into another market of their choice. Why agree to a clause so draconian anyway?

[trundlenut]

Strong, positive message fro the Leave representatives which appeals to me. I'm really turned off by the Remain negative slant.

If we leave it will be harder and more expensive to export. It will be more expensive to import. It will take well over a decade to renegotiate all 50+ trade deals we will walk away from.

IT WILL BE BAD.

Not spin, not lies, not fear.

This is about ideology, not what is best for country. The Brexit lot don't care if we all end up in the gutter, it's all about doing something regardless of the consequences. Do you think Boris et al care about "the people"? They have enough money and influence that they will be Ok and stuff everyone else.

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[@Lee]

600K

[trundlenut]

Just heard another point that boggles the mind! Why would a company agree to a contract with a clause that means they lose an order if we vote to leave? If it's true it just means to me, in my naïveté, that they are then free to sell the product/service they're producing into another market of their choice. Why agree to a clause so draconian anyway?

Because overnight the cost may go up by 10% or whatever tariff suddenly gets slapped on it because trade deals are no longer valid. Or cancelling a trade deal may mean it is no longer legal to export or import whatever it is.

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[Pilotguy]

If we leave it will be harder and more expensive to export. It will be more expensive to import. It will take well over a decade to renegotiate all 50+ trade deals we will walk away from.

IT WILL BE BAD.

Not spin, not lies, not fear.

This is about ideology, not what is best for country. The Brexit lot don't care if we all end up in the gutter, it's all about doing something regardless of the consequences. Do you think etc etck

Well Trundlenut, It's good that you are so certain of the effects. Few on either side of the discussion are able to use WILL with such conviction. The main literature that uses the W word is the HM government leaflet posted to all of us and its use in that has been fairly widely debated and rubbished.

I would expect the financial markets to go squirrelly for a while, maybe the economy does go into a short term dip. That nervousness hasn't been helped by the negativity of our own Chancellor and Remain politicians. I still think that's a price worth paying for future freedom to go the way that suits our country's and our businesses needs, not the aspirations of a remote, omnipotent, unchecked European Government.

[Ootohere]

Shuttering UK operations must be some kind of closing down with a stutter i imagine.

 

Overnight cost going up by 10% surely does not mean the 23rd night of June or even the 24th, is it even in 2017.

Obviously the tariff is not getting slapped on anytime soon, and do we know who the slappers are?

 

IF, it is out then the UK will be on 'Reset', all change, things will not be the same, British Citizens might even need 

to get some jobs and be 'Hard Working Familes'.  

The population will not be decreasing though, and everything required now will still be, 

or maybe some crap might just be too expensive for many, like it is now.

Edited 21 June, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[trundlenut]

Well Trundlenut, It's good that you are so certain of the effects. Few on either side of the discussion are able to use WILL with such conviction. The main literature that uses the W word is the HM government leaflet posted to all of us and its use in that has been fairly widely debated and rubbished.

I would expect the financial markets to go squirrelly for a while, maybe the economy does go into a short term dip. That nervousness hasn't been helped by the negativity of our own Chancellor and Remain politicians. I still think that's a price worth paying for future freedom to go the way that suits our country's and our businesses needs, not the aspirations of a remote, omnipotent, unchecked European Government.

IT WILL.

Really isn't hard to understand. We have a free trade with the EU, this means we can easily sell stuff to Europe without tariffs. If we leave we lose that.

1. We have to agree the terms for leaving.

2. After this we have to negotiate a new set of trade deals with the EU to avoid tariffs. This WILL take a LONG time (like 10 years). In the mean it WILL cost more to export. This will be complicated. Also imports will cost more, which pushes up export costs as we have have little in the way of resources.

3. Then we have to do the same thing with ALL the countries we lose trade deals with. This WILL take longer and be a lot more complicated than the EU deal as we will need to try and do loads simultaneously and require huge government resources (doing more than one at a time will be hard). Whilst this is going on imports and exports will be more expensive.

4. If we end up with a deal with the EU it will either cost us money and most likely free movement. Or it WILL be worse. Norway has said this would be worse than what we have now.

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[trundlenut]

Shuttering UK operations must be some kind of closing down with a stutter i imagine.

Overnight cost going up by 10% surely does not mean the 23rd night of June or even the 24th, is it even in 2017.

Obviously the tariff is not getting slapped on anytime soon, and do we know who the slappers are?

IF, it is out then the UK will be on 'Reset', all change, things will not be the same, British Citizens might even need

to get some jobs and be 'Hard Working Familes'.

The population will not be decreasing though, and everything required now will still be,

or maybe some crap might just be too expensive for many, like it is now.

What if you are talking about a 5 or 10 year contract for goods or services. If it's a real covering services then they might not be covered by WTO so the end.

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[Pilotguy]

Any tariff-slapping will most likely be done, if we vote to leave, to discourage other member countries from following and causing the EU to fold.

[Ootohere]

Que sera,  if only we were all Derren Brown we would be sorted.

 

If only we knew what Putin had up his sleeve we might spend spend spend like there was no tomorrow.

Just wait until he shuts off energy to Germany and Austria sometime before many more years and lets see how many 

Mainland European Politicians wished they had migrated to the UK.

Edited 21 June, 2016 by GoneOffSKi

[trundlenut]

Any tariff-slapping will most likely be done, if we vote to leave, to discourage other member countries from following and causing the EU to fold.

 

Either you have a trade deal which offers tariff free access to markets, or you have tariffs.  If we tear up the trade deal we get...

[Pilotguy]

It's a massive decision and I'll freely admit that the economics of it all are the hardest to fathom for me personally. Best case is we move towards becoming an attractive "Offshore" Tiger economy, free of the legislation and taxes brought into being by the EU. Worst case we stall at present levels of growth, possibly fall back slightly, even. My gut instinct is that it'll be somewhere in the middle, so probably not disastrous. In the main I believe the EU has become a behemoth that wastes billions, shows no signs of reforming itself anytime soon and is not going to be good for our country's future.

If my vote contributes to us making a bad mistake well our Government is going to have to try to make the best of it. That's the double edged sword that we call democracy.

The vote's in the hands of Joe Public on Thursday, at least there's been a debate now we'll just have to see what the people decide!

[Pilotguy]

Either you have a trade deal which offers tariff free access to markets, or you have tariffs.  If we tear up the trade deal we get...

A replacement trade deal with new terms? I doubt any of us can even guess the actual figures of the tariffs that will eventually be negotiated. Will make an interesting sweepstake if we all stay interested enough for long enough to check...

[trundlenut]

It's a massive decision and I'll freely admit that the economics of it all are the hardest to fathom for me personally. Best case is we move towards becoming an attractive "Offshore" Tiger economy, free of the legislation and taxes brought into being by the EU. Worst case we stall at present levels of growth, possibly fall back slightly, even. My gut instinct is that it'll be somewhere in the middle, so probably not disastrous. In the main I believe the EU has become a behemoth that wastes billions, shows no signs of reforming itself anytime soon and is not going to be good for our country's future.

If my vote contributes to us making a bad mistake well our Government is going to have to try to make the best of it. That's the double edged sword that we call democracy.

The vote's in the hands of Joe Public on Thursday, at least there's been a debate now we'll just have to see what the people decide!

 

 

That assumes we effectively stop trading with the EU, or somehow get a deal where we trade with the EU but don't have to abide by their rules - something which is not going to happen.  We could look to trade just outside the EU but that will take 10+ years to get going, in the mean time it all goes down the toilet.

 

A replacement trade deal with new terms? I doubt any of us can even guess the actual figures of the tariffs that will eventually be negotiated. Will make an interesting sweepstake if we all stay interested enough for long enough to check...

 

A replacement deal WILL take 10 years plus.  Switzerland are still negotiating trades deals with the EU and have been for decades and don't have access equal to what we have.

Edited 21 June, 2016 by trundlenut

[Pilotguy]

But these extended negotiations haven't stalled Switzerlands economy in the meantime, have they? Same with all the other countries (Canada, Norway etc) they're still benefitting from all the other trade they do globally, as will we. Isn't the figure that we do 80% of our trade outside the EU. I see us a real potential competitor in the future, if free of EU restrictions that favour the German, Frenchm Dutch, Italian etc etc economies over ours.

See this is what I mean. So much of the remain argument is about fear of what MAY happen often dressed up illegitimately as certainty. I don't buy it.

[gadgetman]

Shuttering UK operations must be some kind of closing down with a stutter i imagine.

Essentially closing the physical presence here, but will still do business, just without offices & staff within UK borders.

Many companies have their European HQ within the UK. If we're no going to be in Europe then they will almost certainly move staff and resources back inside the EU to allow free movement of those staff and resources.

[Pilotguy]

Essentially closing the physical presence here, but will still do business, just without offices & staff within UK borders.

Many companies have their European HQ within the UK. If we're no going to be in Europe then they will almost certainly move staff and resources back inside the EU to allow free movement of those staff and resources.

Regional offices, I can understand relocating relatively inexpensively. But European HQs of international companies are surely going to incur huge costs to relocate. Isn't that where our government will need to be agile and generous with incentives to persuade them to remain? That's if companies do actually find they need to. Town, city & regional business incentive schemes seem to have become widespread in the last 20 years. This is exactly where they are going to have to prove their worth Edited 21 June, 2016 by Pilotguy

[trundlenut]

But these extended negotiations haven't stalled Switzerlands economy in the meantime, have they? Same with all the other countries (Canada, Norway etc) they're still benefitting from all the other trade they do globally, as will we. Isn't the figure that we do 80% of our trade outside the EU. I see us a real potential competitor in the future, if free of EU restrictions that favour the German, Frenchm Dutch, Italian etc etc economies over ours.

See this is what I mean. So much of the remain argument is about fear of what MAY happen often dressed up illegitimately as certainty. I don't buy it.

 

But they have had decades to sort deals with other people, we are effectively tearing it all up and starting from scratch, both inside and outside the EU.  That is over 50 trade deals.

 

I thought we do more trade with the EU than everyone else, and they are the biggest single trading partner by a huge amount.

 

The UK government (well known for speed and precision) will have to negotiate a new deal from scratch with the EU (the massive bloat palace of infighting and inaction apparently) acting on behalf of 27 other countries all of whom will need to be consulted, have input and finally ratify the deal.  Whilst doing this we also need to conduct a further 50+ deals around the world with other governments (all equally fleet footed and easy going) who will have their own (conflicting) demands at the same time.

 

Is this going to be quick?

Is this going to be straightforward?

 

And in the mean no one invests in anything in the UK, the EU is likely going to do everything to attract UK based operations into the EU and those ideologues who took us down this road all blame the EU for all our woes.

[trundlenut]

Regional offices, I can understand relocating relatively inexpensively. But European HQs of international companies are surely going to incur huge costs to relocate. Isn't that where our government will need to be agile and generous with incentives to persuade them to remain? That's if companies do actually find they need to. Town, city & regional business incentive schemes seem to have become widespread in the last 20 years. This is exactly where they are going to have to prove their worth

 

Huge costs which come off the tax bill.

[gadgetman]

Regional offices, I can understand relocating relatively inexpensively. But European HQs of international companies are surely going to incur huge costs to relocate. Isn't that where our government will need to be agile and generous with incentives to persuade them to remain? That's if companies do actually find they need to. Town, city & regional business incentive schemes seem to have become widespread in the last 20 years. This is exactly where they are going to have to prove their worth

Depends on the costs they'd incur outside the EU.

If all imports of parts incur a tariff, that's either more expensive goods in a market much bigger than the UK and lower sales.

Then you have easy movement of people and resources. What happens when suddenly you have travel visas? What about the increase in costs through imports and exports?

Just look ti the favourites on the tongues of the leave side Turkey & Canada. Look at EU trade and movement of people/resources between businesses with these 2 countries and the EU.

That would be us outside the EU.

[Pilotguy]

But they have had decades to sort deals with other people, we are effectively tearing it all up and starting from scratch, both inside and outside the EU.  That is over 50 trade deals.

 

I thought we do more trade with the EU than everyone else, and they are the biggest single trading partner by a huge amount.

 

The UK government (well known for speed and precision) will have to negotiate a new deal from scratch with the EU (the massive bloat palace of infighting and inaction apparently) acting on behalf of 27 other countries all of whom will need to be consulted, have input and finally ratify the deal.  Whilst doing this we also need to conduct a further 50+ deals around the world with other governments (all equally fleet footed and easy going) who will have their own (conflicting) demands at the same time.

 

Is this going to be quick?

Is this going to be straightforward?

 

And in the mean no one invests in anything in the UK, the EU is likely going to do everything to attract UK based operations into the EU and those ideologues who took us down this road all blame the EU for all our woes.

It isn't going to be "from scratch" though, is it? The starting point is where we are find ourselves at the point we agree the decree absolute. Another whole load of negotiations & mediation is needed just for that. It isn't an immediate and total withdrawl of trade to and from Europe but an uncoupling (maybe) and a transition to a brand of trade that the rest of the world gets by with perfectly happily. We probably won't get the same terms under another trade deal, agreed, but we can be robust in negotiation and strive for the best terms possible.

Thanks for the discussion. It's been interesting to chat about it alongside the TV debate and the other discussions I've had about it at work and even while sitting in a pretty square in a vibrant European town the other weekend!

My view has become even more polarised and I'm more strongly in the Leave camp than I was before.

[Pilotguy]

Depends on the costs they'd incur outside the EU.

If all imports of parts incur a tariff, that's either more expensive goods in a market much bigger than the UK and lower sales.

Then you have easy movement of people and resources. What happens when suddenly you have travel visas? What about the increase in costs through imports and exports?

Just look ti the favourites on the tongues of the leave side Turkey & Canada. Look at EU trade and movement of people/resources between businesses with these 2 countries and the EU.

That would be us outside the EU.

But Visas aren't difficult to get and cost little. I can do one online to virtually any country except Nort Korea! Long gone are the days of queuing up at someone's Embassy/Consulate if you're just a tourist or only want a short stay Visa. Remember that Turkey just rapidly negotiated a deal with the EU for their citizens to be allowed Visa-free access to the EU as part of the deal on Syrian refugee repatriation and control!

Someone give me some positives about the EU rather than just repeating the imminent financial doom message!