EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 1

[trundlenut]

It isn't going to be "from scratch" though, is it? The starting point is where we are find ourselves at the point we agree the decree absolute. Another whole load of negotiations & mediation is needed just for that. It isn't an immediate and total withdrawl of trade to and from Europe but an uncoupling (maybe) and a transition to a brand of trade that the rest of the world gets by with perfectly happily. We probably won't get the same terms under another trade deal, agreed, but we can be robust in negotiation and strive for the best terms possible.

Thanks for the discussion. It's been interesting to chat about it alongside the TV debate and the other discussions I've had about it at work and even while sitting in a pretty square in a vibrant European town the other weekend!

My view has become even more polarised and I'm more strongly in the Leave camp than I was before.

 

It is from scratch.  We agree the terms for disentangling ourselves from the EU and that cuts off our access to the single market and all of the EU trade deals with 3rd party countries - the agreements are no longer valid because we are not in the EU.  We then have to start negotiating new deals.  We could do that whilst we also reach agreement on the divorce, but that just adds another set of negotiations we have to do simultaneously.

 

If we want a transition arrangement, then we will need to agree that during the divorce proceedings, which adds more works and negotiations on top of all of the rest.

 

Either way it will take years and years and years.  During this time our government will likely change and there will be changes in EU government.  The top brass at the EU will change too, this could easily set back negotiations by months or years.  It will take hundreds and hundreds of UK diplomats to do all of this and it would appear we simply do not physically have enough diplomats to do it.  We can't magic them out of thin air.

 

All the while we are sliding backwards, becoming less attractive to everyone in terms of investment.  Weakening our position and likely leading to a poorer deal.

 

If we want access to the EU single market free movement is a requirement - see Norway and Switzerland.  So we could end up out of the EU with no control over EU immigration and no control over EU rules and regulations.  Or we could walk away from the EU and step out into the welcoming arms of the world who can watch the UK economy implode.

 

Imagine losing even 20% of turnover wherever you work and what that would do to the number of staff.

[Pilotguy]

Some useful impartial (I believe) facts on our trade with the EU here https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As far, far more of the "product" we produce is in services rather than materials and more of that is likely to move online as time goes on, how relevant will tariffs really be?

[trundlenut]

But Visas aren't difficult to get and cost little. I can do one online to virtually any country except Nort Korea! Long gone are the days of queuing up at someone's Embassy/Consulate if you're just a tourist or only want a short stay Visa. Remember that Turkey just rapidly negotiated a deal with the EU for their citizens to be allowed Visa-free access to the EU as part of the deal on Syrian refugee repatriation and control!

Someone give me some positives about the EU rather than just repeating the imminent financial doom message!

 

The turkey deal allows for a maximum of 60 days travel to the schengen  area, no working, no residence and no extension, hardly carte blanche.

[trundlenut]

Some useful impartial (I believe) facts on our trade with the EU here https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

As far, far more of the "product" we produce is in services rather than materials and more of that is likely to move online as time goes on, how relevant will tariffs really be?

 

 

Services are generally more restricted than goods - see WTO rules.

[trundlenut]

Just thought of an example of restrictions on services.

 

I used to work for a US company in the UK. We would carry out due diligence work for US clients in the UK and Europe.  In order to meet US regulatory requirements the work had to be signed off by a appropriately qualified person, i.e. someone with the correct US credentials.  The equivalent UK/EU credentials are not recognised by the US and so all of the work had to be passed back through a US office to be signed off, we simply couldn't do it.

 

So if a UK company wanted to do the work, they would need to either open an office in the US and get appropriate staff or bring them over to the UK, or train UK staff appropriately.  The second two options don't really work as there is a need for ongoing training etc. to maintain the qualifications. 

[gadgetman]

It isn't going to be "from scratch" though, is it? The starting point is where we are find ourselves at the point we agree the decree absolute. Another whole load of negotiations & mediation is needed just for that. It isn't an immediate and total withdrawl of trade to and from Europe but an uncoupling (maybe) and a transition to a brand of trade that the rest of the world gets by with perfectly happily. We probably won't get the same terms under another trade deal, agreed, but we can be robust in negotiation and strive for the best terms possible.

Thanks for the discussion. It's been interesting to chat about it alongside the TV debate and the other discussions I've had about it at work and even while sitting in a pretty square in a vibrant European town the other weekend!

My view has become even more polarised and I'm more strongly in the Leave camp than I was before.

To leave the EU we invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty (look it up, the process is well documented). It's a process we have little involvement in. "Negotiations" are driven by the EU, and for most of it we aren't even present.

Once article 50 has been invoked there's no going back. If we did decide we wanted to halt our leaving and remain (say rumblings of a bum deal were coming from the EU), the only option is article 49 which covers joining and rejoining the EU.

Article 49 would mean no more veto of new laws, adoption of the euro AND schengen area are non negotiable.

UKIP & several in leave will be demanding an immediate start to the official serving of Article 50 within days.

This really is a one way decision. It's like going in to your boss tomorrow, calling them a ****, telling them you never really liked them anyway, and could you still be their friend, work together as before and carry on business as usual.

Yeah, ok Boris.

[Pilotguy]

It is from scratch.  We agree the terms for disentangling ourselves from the EU.

There's a bit in the Fullfact.org link about the WTO agreements that already exist and would give us some protection in the form of 'most favoured nation' terms.

We produce good products and services that have a value to trading partners. We receive vast amounts of products from EU countries individually and collectively. Ditto the rest of the world. They will wish those income streams to continue as seamlessly as possible. There are deals to be done to the benefit of both sides imho and that will drive deals to be achieved as painlessly as possible. We need to find hundreds of bureaucrats (not diplomats) to do deals at home and abroad. Civil Service recruiting boost required, small price to pay and real jobs for people. I honestly don't have a problem with that.

[trundlenut]

There's a bit in the Fullfact.org link about the WTO agreements that already exist and would give us some protection in the form of 'most favoured nation' terms.

We produce good products and services that have a value to trading partners. We receive vast amounts of products from EU countries individually and collectively. Ditto the rest of the world. They will wish those income streams to continue as seamlessly as possible. There are deals to be done to the benefit of both sides imho and that will drive deals to be achieved as painlessly as possible. We need to find hundreds of bureaucrats (not diplomats) to do deals at home and abroad. Civil Service recruiting boost required, small price to pay and real jobs for people. I honestly don't have a problem with that.

Your last sentence will take time, I would say a year or two.

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[Pilotguy]

The turkey deal allows for a maximum of 60 days travel to the schengen  area, no working, no residence and no extension, hardly carte blanche.

You reinforce my point very nicely. I said tourist and short-term. If you want to work in another country for, say 3 or 6 months + you ought to be prepared to undergo a more rigorous check before being granted a Visa. Passing through or just a holidaymaker? Visit a website and get an e-visa. Not suggesting carte blanche is what Turkey have got in the deal. Not even sure the deal has been ratified yet, in fact. Imagine the agonising the Greeks must be going through over allowing unfettered access to their historical enemy!

[Pilotguy]

Your last sentence will take time, I would say a year or two.

I've lost track of the number of stories about Uni graduates who can't find decent jobs that suit their expensively obtained degrees. Select, Recruit, Civil Service exams, Employ. Median Civil Service salary c.£23000, so they won't be paying back their Student Loans at the beginning but they'll be on the way. If these trade agreements are going to take, let's say, 10 years it's no problem to ramp up recruiting to cope is it?

[gadgetman]

I've lost track of the number of stories about Uni graduates who can't find decent jobs that suit their expensively obtained degrees. Select, Recruit, Civil Service exams, Employ. Median Civil Service salary c.£23000, so they won't be paying back their Student Loans at the beginning but they'll be on the way. If these trade agreements are going to take, let's say, 10 years it's no problem to ramp up recruiting to cope is it?

So you're taking away the prospects of further education right there.

This is in part the issue in southern Europe fueled by association with the single currency. Millions of young people who are educated cannot find jobs to suit their education, so others don't bother and equally cannot get work because they aren't skilled enough.

Thousands of students from the UK study abroad because in a number of areas there are universities with better, and globally recognised exams meaning literally the world is their oyster.

[expostmanpat]

Brexiters dont give a stuff. They cant see beyond immigration (which wont alter and the 'undesirables' are from beyond europe in anycase) and the fictitious hospital a week we lose giving to the eu. A figure that will be peanuts compared to the cost of exiting.

[gadgetman]

Brexiters dont give a stuff. They cant see beyond immigration (which wont alter and the 'undesirables' are from beyond europe in anycase) and the fictitious hospital a week we lose giving to the eu. A figure that will be peanuts compared to the cost of exiting.

One thing no one on remain picked up on last night was Boris saying how we discriminate against people from the rest of the world because of eu migration.

So effectively what I heard him say is he would replace eu migration with non eu migration.

For those concerned about and wanting to cut immigration it's not an answer to a serious concern.

[trundlenut]

Brexiters dont give a stuff. They cant see beyond immigration (which wont alter and the 'undesirables' are from beyond europe in anycase) and the fictitious hospital a week we lose giving to the eu. A figure that will be peanuts compared to the cost of exiting.

The fact that Boris turned up last night in the big red lie bus shows that. They continue to present a lie as the number 1 reason for and benefit of leaving.

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[gadgetman]

The fact that Boris turned up last night in the big red lie bus shows that. They continue to present a lie as the number 1 reason for and benefit of leaving.

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Perfectly legal apparently to lie during an election or referendum campaign.

Farage could technically stand on a platform and say that eu officials are going to drop a bombshell on Friday of North Korea being given eu free movement.

Yes it's complete hogwash, yet the Electoral Commission would/could do nothing about it.

It's a farse.

If they did have the power to stop the lies, the campaign would have been very different.

[Ootohere]

You get so much mis-information, just yesterday someone online was saying that BMW own JCB.

 

Much needs taken with a pinch of salt, 

read or heard it somewhere so it must be right...

[moley]

Anyone predicting the result yet?

I'm going for 52% remain, 48% leave, with a turnout of 72%.

[Auric Goldfinger]

Remain 56%, Leave 44%, 80% Turn out

[@Lee]

Please take some time to read this before you vote tomorrow. No bias, just answers.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/22/eu-referendum-five-questions-to-answer-before-you-vote

[LHVRS]

I'm still on the fence, I read one thing then another and I really don't know what is best for the UK, just watching this video while I'm on my lunch break 

https://youtu.be/pq72f81kkM4

[theezenutz]

Lol we are used to this we have an election every 4 years where very few promises are ever kept, why the surprise? We already know Politicians are career liars after all that is what Megan Trainor song your lips are movin is all about.

 

Woops that was in reply to a comment further back.

Edited 22 June, 2016 by theezenutz

[trundlenut]

Lol we are used to this we have an election every 4 years where very few promises are ever kept, why the surprise? We already know Politicians are career liars after all that is what Megan Trainor song your lips are movin is all about.

Woops that was in reply to a comment further back.

Are you going to vote?

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[Pilotguy]

So you're taking away the prospects of further education right there.

This is in part the issue in southern Europe fueled by association with the single currency. Millions of young people who are educated cannot find jobs to suit their education, so others don't bother and equally cannot get work because they aren't skilled enough.

Thousands of students from the UK study abroad because in a number of areas there are universities with better, and globally recognised exams meaning literally the world is their oyster.

No, my point was to recruit from FE establishments once degrees, Bacs etc have been achieved. We need to stop graduates hard work and intellect being wasted.

[Blade404]

When some of best analysis regarding this whole EU shebang comes from a satire page...

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/newsthump/the-eu-referendum-how-is-newsthump-going-to-vote/1115572031828566

[@Lee]

lols

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/14573767.Vote_Leave_Ukip_car_spotted_parking_on_double_yellows/

 

And a French made car, no less!