EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Ootohere]

Already plenty of the money from the UK for healthcare and NHS services will be going offshore, just it will be to British Dependency Tax Havens.

http://virgincare.co.uk 

 

The Government are OK with the North American company raking it in with Health Assessments for the DWP.

http://chdauk.co.uk 

http://maximusuk.co.uk 

 

No mater where or who the parent company are, and those getting the profits, or where the HQ / IT is there needs to be employees in the UK doing the Nursing, Caring, and providing the actual service to the customers. 

So those will be people from where ever that have what ever first or second languages and training / qualification.

Same old thing, you need workers, managers and all that stuff like buildings and equipment, 

taxes, NI, Paye and all the stuff that keeps business's running.

Edited 7 February, 2018 by AwaoffSki

[@Lee]

Quote

Japan tells UK on Brexit: If there is no profit, we cannot continue

“If there is no profitability of continuing operations in the UK - not Japanese only - then no private company can continue operations. So it is as simple as that,” Koji Tsuruoka said when asked how real the threat was to Japanese companies of Britain not securing frictionless trade.

“This is all high stakes that all of us, I think, need to keep in mind,” he said.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-japan-brexit/japan-tells-uk-on-brexit-if-there-is-no-profit-we-cannot-continue-idUSKBN1FS2JH?il=0
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/02/08/world/europe/08reuters-britain-eu-japan-brexit.html

[@Lee]

Leaked Government analysis reveals post-Brexit impact on UK regions

Sky News can reveal the full regional breakdown of Whitehall's impact assessment of three different Brexit scenarios.

https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254
https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/now-we-know-why-tories-were-so-keen-to.html
 

[lol-lol]

7 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

Leaked Government analysis reveals post-Brexit impact on UK regions

Sky News can reveal the full regional breakdown of Whitehall's impact assessment of three different Brexit scenarios.

https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254
https://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/now-we-know-why-tories-were-so-keen-to.html
 

 

 

I still remember vividly as the BREXIT vote came in and Sunderland voted majority to come out of the EU and I thought, OMG do you not realise the tens of thousands of jobs linked to the Nissan car plant.

 

I hope Jaguar Land Rover continue to do well and I wonder which region Honda at Swindon comes under ie South West I presume and the Toyota plant does come under West Midland or East Midlands. 

 

13% is a huge wack for car companies to absorb and would have to mean much lower wages for workers to even get close to competing with cars biult with the EU which are going to the EU market. 

Edited 8 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

https://news.sky.com/story/japanese-ambassador-warns-prime-minister-of-brexit-high-stakes-after-talks-11241558

 

Japanese ambassador warns Prime Minister of Brexit 'high stakes' after talks

 

Theresa May is being told if there is "no profitability" for foreign businesses they could leave the UK.   Koji Tsuruoka, speaking outside Number 10, claimed international companies could close their operations in Britain if there is "no profitability" in continuing their UK presence.  He delivered a warning to the Government as Cabinet ministers continue to debate the form of Britain's post-Brexit relationship with the EU.  The ambassador said: "If there is no profitability of continuing operation in the UK - not Japanese only - no private company can continue operation.

"So, it's as simple as that. This is all high stakes that I think all of us need to keep in mind."

[Ryeman]

Polls can be a significant threat causing low voter turnout -

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/02/06/use-of-election-forecasts-in-campaign-coverage-can-confuse-voters-and-may-lower-turnout/?utm_source=Pew+Research+Center&utm_campaign=2d7e295a57-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3e953b9b70-2d7e295a57-399734757

 

 

[lol-lol]

Poor exchange rates of the UK Pound compared to the Euro and USD help widen UK trade deficit........

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2017

 

Table of contents

1. Main points
2. Things you need to know about this release
3. The total UK trade deficit widened by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion in the three months to December 2017
4. The widening of the trade in goods deficit was mainly due to increases in imports from non-EU countries, alongside decreases in exports to the EU, in the three months to December 2017
5. The UK’s top 10 trade in goods export markets in 2017 remained similar to 2016
6. Large increases in fuels import prices combined with decreases in fuels export volumes had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit, in the three months to December 2017
7. The total UK trade deficit widened by £1.2 billion between November 2017 and December 2017

The total trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.8 billion to £10.8 billion in the three months to December 2017 (Figure 1). This was due primarily to the widening of the trade in goods deficit by £3.3 billion to £37.2 billion, which resulted from a 2.9% (£3.5 billion) increase in goods imports to £123.9 billion, more than offsetting the 0.2% (£0.3 billion) increase in goods and services exports.   The trade deficit in fuels, which widened by £2.4 billion to £4.7 billion, had the largest impact on the trade in goods deficit, followed by a £1.9 billion widening of the unspecified goods deficit to £1.8 billion. Imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and fuels were the largest contributors to the increase in goods imports, increasing by 74% (£2.1 billion) and 14.1% (£1.6 billion) respectively. Of fuels, oil was the largest import, increasing by 14.4% (£1.2 billion) – particularly refined oil (19.3%; £0.8 billion).  Trade in services also had some contribution to the widening of the total trade deficit in the three months to December 2017: the trade surplus in services narrowed by £0.5 billion to £26.4 billion, due to a larger increase in imports than exports; 1.3% (£0.5 billion) and 0.1% (£44 million) respectively. The increase in imports was due primarily to travel services and other business services......

The volume of goods exported to other EU countries decreased 2.5% and goods imported from the EU increased 1.2% in the three months to December 2017, while EU export and import prices increased 1.6% and 0.5% respectively. 

 

Perhaps we need to buy more UK made Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Toyota and less mainland Europe cars (me too)? 

 

[domhnall]

34 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

Perhaps we need to buy more UK made Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Toyota and less mainland Europe cars (me too)? 

 

 

 

I reckon we are all going to be buying a lot less of a lot of things when loads of us lose our jobs and when all the young people who have transferrable skills up sticks and follow the work, especially those lucky enough to have EU passports

[lol-lol]

49 minutes ago, domhnall said:

 

I reckon we are all going to be buying a lot less of a lot of things when loads of us lose our jobs and when all the young people who have transferrable skills up sticks and follow the work, especially those lucky enough to have EU passports

 

I am planning to get my Irish passport in the next few months (i am at Kerry airport now) but the kids are too removed ie great grand parent rather than on grand p.  

What ever deal UK gets with and all the other non EU countries it will be a generation before we get back to what we already have, if ever.

Invest in international bonds. Work for companies who sell in Dollars or Euros and scope up the uk properties as they fall in value.  Always an opportunity.

Edited 9 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[Ryeman]

Are there declared odds on a second vote?.

[lol-lol]

9 hours ago, Ryeman said:

Are there declared odds on a second vote?.

 

Yes.  5-1........       https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit-specials

 

Maybot to be PM at time of BREXIT 4/5.   Hmmm.   

 

No BREXIT deal   7/4.   

 

Edited 10 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[terrytowelling]

All the car manufacturers will be leaving post brexit, it just won't be financially viable

[lol-lol]

26 minutes ago, terrytowelling said:

All the car manufacturers will be leaving post brexit, it just won't be financially viable

 

I am not sure about all car factories but I am hoping parts of Jaguar Land Rover will survive.   Clearly the warning by the Japanese Ambassador to the UK warning should be taken heed of and he will be acting based on the conversations that he would have had with Honda, Nissan and Toyota.  Japanese love to live and work in the UK, they adore the lifestyle (the golf) but if half of the market or so is made so difficult to trade in to then they will have to consider moves to Spain, Turkey etc.  BMW-Mini have already moved part of their mini production to Austria and Holland and it would not be too much of an effort to move even more over there.   Jaguar Land Rover/Tata has a plant coming on line for 4x4s in Slovakia so they will have quite a foothold in the EU.  

 

The imposition of customs procedures and even high tariffs on cars made in Ellesmere Port in to the EU could be its death knell to go from one shift, as it has just gone, to no shifts, mothballed or closed indefinitely.   The UK could hope that it still produces engines at Bridgend (Ford) and Wolverhampton (JLR) as the customs tariffs are smaller for engines than the are for complete but we need a UK government that actually is capable of thrashing out a trade deal which the current one seems incapable of.  Back down to Westminster next week so hopefully hear more about how prepare HMRC are for BREXIT and let they know how we in International Logistics are preparing and hopefully the customs declaration systems in Belgium, France and Holland are also scaling up to handle the quantum increase in declarations as Mr Barnier explained you are either in, and obey the rules, our you are out and are treated like any other third country FTA or not ie border, customs controls etc.    

 

[Ootohere]

terrytowlling, 

we must check back in in another 5 years and see just how many cars are being manufactured in the UK.

 

So we just need to see how things are 2023, Euro 7 Emissions, and maybe UK Emissions standards required. 

Low emission zone areas around the UK and more of a population in the UK then from now.

 

Lots of this Parts back and fore across the channel umpteen times might suit 'Just on time supplying of production',  but it has been clogging up roads, 

train lines and ferries, and is just polluting. 

Loads of kidology as well on productivity, profits, tax payed on profits. Tariffs and no Tariff / Free Market.   UK VAT.

[terrytowelling]

When it all comes crashing down the brexiters certainly wont be taking responsibility, they are already in denial 

[@Lee]

Quote

British workers are expected to see their earnings decrease by 0.7% in 2018 when taking account of inflation, which has surged in the past year as a result of the pound’s weakness since the EU referendum, pushing up the cost of importing food and fuel.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/dec/29/uk-to-sink-to-the-bottom-of-oecd-wage-growth-index-in-2018

[Ootohere]

http://politico.eu/tag/hungarian-election-2018 

 

Double of not very much is 100% increase but still not that much.

 

In Hungary the poverty for so many including workers in good / essential jobs is appalling, as is the corruption, and in-humanity.

Putin has such a hold over Hungary now with inward investment,.

Germany used Hungary and still does for not only cheap labour but highly trained and well qualified labour that pays better.

& many around the EU / Europe have Hungary for their holiday homes.   Much Cheapness.

 

Not in the Euro Zone, and continually threatened with sanctions by the EU / Germany, 

but then the Oil & Gas has to go through Hungary, and that means Germany are up a creak without a paddle if they actually do anything more than talk tough.

Edited 11 February, 2018 by AwaoffSki

[moley]

2008 - 2009 didn't look too good, but I guess we survived.

[Ootohere]

?

How much came back into peoples pockets / UK Economy from PPI payments, tax free as The Banks' have had to payout Billions.

 

Some of those Billions going to those 'calling and writing you & get you money and their percentage', 

and even those that were in debt and arrears or never paid PPI have received money from these banks, 

plenty have done well receiving back PPI they are not entitled to.

Money that is their because UK Tax payers bailed out banks and that have been paying big Bonuses and never got the 'Commission or Bonuses' back from  Bankers and Sales people that Mis-sold PPI.

 

The UK is a weird economy, of Black Market, Grey Economy, and just pure fraudulent business practices.

All in it together, i am all right jack!

Edited 11 February, 2018 by AwaoffSki

[@Lee]

16 minutes ago, moley said:

2008 - 2009 didn't look too good, but I guess we survived.

 

But according to that inflation went down as well. The 2018 scenario is wages down and inflation up. You're not really comparing apples with apples there.
Don't forget, this is also before if we exit, off a cliff or otherwise

[Ootohere]

Hard Working / hard saving or just people with money were getting virtually no interest on their money while people earned off managing and investing or losing it, 

and other people could borrow it cheaply and keep thew lenders in a nice standard of living.

 

Funny old world where people make more off other peoples money than the people that worked and earned it and just want it banked securely.

Edited 11 February, 2018 by AwaoffSki

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, moley said:

2008 - 2009 didn't look too good, but I guess we survived.

 

Then in 2010 to 2013, during a terrible period of austerity where public servant particularly ie firemen, nurses, teacher, were told they could not have a pay rise to keep up with inflation which was ripping away at 4% but by 2014 it looked like the worse could be over.  Yes the UK National Debt had gone up from a trillion pounds to one and half trillion but it looked like the economy was on the way up and there was light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Then our muppet of a PM, DC comic, thought it was a god idea to have a vote on EU membership (but without explaining well what being out would actually mean).  So in mid 2016 the world watched on as the UK committed economic self harm in the name of immigration concerns and since then the UK economy has slowed down whilst Europe has further picked up so that the UK is now growing at 60% of the rate of the Rest of EU ie 1.5% against 2.5%.  Inflation in the UK is 4% for RPI and 3% for CPI.  The UK National Debt approaches 2 Trillion and we are still going a billion pounds further in to debt every week.

 

The current government exhibits little understanding of the rules of the club that Thatcher and Major took us in to in 1992.  I would just like Brexiteers to state that they believe that a 5% downturn (average of the assessments) is worth having pretend control of our borders (pretend as they have not manged to control non-EU migration that they technically did have control of so track record is very poor).       

 

Yes we will survive, we will have a golden period in International Logistics, Customs Clearances, UK Civil servants (HMRC/UKBA) and the same for the Channel ports between Rotterdam and St Malo and the UK government will have the chance to collect tens of billions in frontier taxes but as to the UK consumer popping to the shops, car show room (unless you want a Jaaag) I reckon it is going to be more like 1973--75 crisis under Heath than 2008 financial crisis for the UK people.

 

   

Edited 11 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[moley]

27 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 I reckon it is going to be more like 1973--75 crisis under Heath than 2008 financial crisis for the UK people.   

Heath left office in March 74 and was replaced by Wilson. The oil crisis of 1973 didn't help.

Quote

in the 1970s, we see inflation rising to double figures and reaching over 25%.

This inflation was due to rising oil prices (oil prices tripled in the 1970s). There was also inflation due to rising wages. Unions were relatively powerful and were bargaining for higher wages to keep up with the rising cost of living – causing a wage-inflationary spiral.

 

[Ootohere]

Look how well many did that lived and worked through that time and bought property, got free university education.

Then those that lived and worked through the 1980's and paid sky high interest rates borrowing to buy homes / property, 

even Council Houses that other family lived in and then sold or still let out.

 

Hard time and a poor economy has done well for plenty.

Are there any destitute politicians or ex politicians from the 1970's?

How many bankers had it all and lost it all and now have not a pot to p!5h in?

[lol-lol]

15 hours ago, AwaoffSki said:

Look how well many did that lived and worked through that time and bought property, got free university education.

Then those that lived and worked through the 1980's and paid sky high interest rates borrowing to buy homes / property, 

even Council Houses that other family lived in and then sold or still let out.

 

Hard time and a poor economy has done well for plenty.

Are there any destitute politicians or ex politicians from the 1970's?

How many bankers had it all and lost it all and now have not a pot to p!5h in?

 

Absolutely some crazy times in both directions.

 

In the early 1990s under Thatcher/Major with house prices falling so far people who had bought in the previous 5 years in severe negative equity.  Paying hundreds of pounds a month for a house that was losing value hand over fist and that did not reverse in to positive equity until after 1997 in the Blair years.

 

Then the financial crash when interest rates went to near zero and my mortgage went down to a couple a hundred a month compare to those who rented who were paying 3 or 4 times at much for the same house.

 

And now today where inflation has returned and we are all expecting interest rates to rise and the cost of loans and mortgages to also rise.  Good for savers, very bad for those with most debt types.  Will wages, and pensions, rise with inflation is the big question, can it with BREXIT here?  

 

 

Edited 12 February, 2018 by lol-lol