EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[skomaz]

9 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

I do flip between indifferent a slightly warm for the XE.  The new E-pace does not look enough Jaaag like to me.  Loved my S-Type styling.  

If we get a hard BREXIT and the return of 10% car duties then JLR would need to focus more on UK sales as EU sales would decline and EU cars become more expensive here so XE, XF etc be comparatively better value.  You can get around £4k even off the cheaper Jaaags.  But in the current climate one can get ov er 25% off by Skoda and other VAG models as they try and shift them !

 

Styling doesn't worry me too much unless it's Honda-like fussiness...   I'm more a practical longevity value person.

 

JLR tend to focus on the prestige more money than sense and short term ownership buyers...

[lol-lol]

 

UK's Brexit transition plans released

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43139703

 

 

The UK has published proposals for how it wants the transition period immediately after Brexit to work.

It says the period should last as long as it takes to "prepare and implement the new processes and new systems".

 

================================================================================================================

 

More than 300 days since triggering Article 50 this is the best UK Gov can come up with?   

 

A full day at Chequers, brain storming.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moley]

Anyone know the source at JLR for the two stories? i can't find any reference to them. Last week JLR were stating that the slow down was due to customers putting off buying diesels in case there are more taxes on the way

I'm working in Israel this week and here the tax on new cars is 50% purchase tax and another 25% VAT

 

[lol-lol]

41 minutes ago, moley said:

Anyone know the source at JLR for the two stories? i can't find any reference to them. Last week JLR were stating that the slow down was due to customers putting off buying diesels in case there are more taxes on the way

I'm working in Israel this week and here the tax on new cars is 50% purchase tax and another 25% VAT

 

 

It central is our local It v channel.  One story is in there main website. Other one just in their Twitter it seems.

[lol-lol]

EU certainly making its position clear even if the UK is comprehensively failing too.......

 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/mobility-future-relationship_21february2018_en.pdf

 

============================================================================================================================================

Key parameters informing the discussion

 

 UK "red lines"

•  "After the UK leaves the EU, free movement will end but migration between the UK and the EU will continue"
•  "The UK will establish an immigration system that allows the UK to control numbers and encourage the brightest and the best to come to the UK"

 

 EU 27 guiding principles

• A non-member of the Union, that does not live up to the same obligations as a member, cannot have the same rights and enjoy the same benefits as a member
• The four freedoms of the Single Market are indivisible, and there can be no "cherry-picking"

 

 

 

 

[lol-lol]

Theresa May's Brexit Plan Is 'Pure Illusion', European Council President Donald Tusk Warns

'It seems like the ‘cake’ philosophy is still alive.'

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-mays-brexit-plan-illusion-donald-tusk_uk_5a9076c9e4b01e9e56bba6f9?icid=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|dl_lnk1%26pLid%3D888907269_uk

 

Theresa May’s position on the Brexit negotiations is based on “pure illusion”, the president of the European Council warned on Friday.  Donald Tusk told a press conference in Brussels this afternoon that the UK is “cherry-picking” its future relationship with the EU, adding: “It seems like the ‘cake’ philosophy is still alive.”  “I am glad that the UK government seems to be moving towards a more detailed position,” Tusk said after 27 EU leaders - all apart from May - met in Brussels.   “However, if the media reports are correct, I am afraid that the UK position today is based on pure illusion.”..........

Many businesses and investors complain that they still lack details on how trade will flow between the world’s biggest trading bloc and its sixth largest economy after Brexit.

[Ryeman]

Apparently it was thought that there was a cherry on top.

Seriously, what were they thinking?.

 

NOW, moving on to NATO........(Brexit being the first step)

Edited 24 February, 2018 by Ryeman

[lol-lol]

3 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

Apparently it was thought that there was a cherry on top.

Seriously, what were they thinking?.

NOW, moving on to NATO........(Brexit being the first step)

 

 

The EU is worried about losing the UK budge contribution but I wonder if they are putting some numbers on all the import taxes they can collect on UK goods going in to the EU.

 

If the UK does not bay the 50 Billion Euro divorce bill they may look to collect this by other means, maybe extra port charges at Calais, Cherbourg, Dunkirk, Le Harve,  Rosscoff etc.   

 

[Ryeman]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

 

The EU is worried about losing the UK budge contribution but I wonder if they are putting some numbers on all the import taxes they can collect on UK goods going in to the EU.

 

If the UK does not bay the 50 Billion Euro divorce bill they may look to collect this by other means, maybe extra port charges at Calais, Cherbourg, Dunkirk, Le Harve,  Rosscoff etc.   

 

It’ll be a unique and expensive to administer scheme with full cost recovery I expect.

[lol-lol]

18 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

It’ll be a unique and expensive to administer scheme with full cost recovery I expect.

 

UK already told to pay extra €50m for more controls at Calais. Port charges are operated by some countries and are not illegal. Other non tariff barriers ie longer inspection times and fees for customs call out can all be used to make the importer pay for new customs controls.

[Ryeman]

6 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

UK already told to pay extra €50m for more controls at Calais. Port charges are operated by some countries and are not illegal. Other non tariff barriers ie longer inspection times and fees for customs call out can all be used to make the importer pay for new customs controls.

I guess the speculators have tied up commercial land in Calais.

[lol-lol]

5 hours ago, Ryeman said:

I guess the speculators have tied up commercial land in Calais.

 

France has huge amounts more space than the UK ports as it is much less densely populated than Southern England but to cope with checks and customs entry requirements.

 

The UK is being so slow to decide exactly what custom deal it want, even though it started the countdown clock, it has created a rod for its own back.  Whilst the French customs service and my company which has huge resources at the Northern France Ports, Charles de Gaulle one cannot expect the French authorities to invest billions when the UK cannot even tell the European mainland what they practical want.  Whilst the UK is making steps to prepare for the multi fold increase in customs procedure Belgium, France and Holland will only carry out some preparation when spec and timetable is still uncertain. 

 

http://www.douane.gouv.fr/Portals/0/fichiers/professionnel/dedouanement/dedouanez-en-france/customs-clearance-in-france-(en).pdf 

 

 

 

[Ryeman]

Having seemingly haphazardly blundered into this shambles, and thinking someone else needs to understand you need a favour now, it’s time surely to come to the realisation that nobody owes Britain anything and unfortunate consequences might have to be accepted.

Of course there might be a chance to undermine European unity by encouraging others to break away.

 

Putin would approve.

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, Ryeman said:

Having seemingly haphazardly blundered into this shambles, and thinking someone else needs to understand you need a favour now, it’s time surely to come to the realisation that nobody owes Britain anything and unfortunate consequences might have to be accepted.

Of course there might be a chance to undermine European unity by encouraging others to break away.

 

Putin would approve.

 

I do not buy this Russian conspiracy crap.  Russia is more interested in the price of oil and having a warm water port for its navy than petty issue in western European countries.

Russia has been buying gold by the truck load so must be expecting a major stock market equities downturn which there are increasing signs of.

Edited 24 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[Ryeman]

On the contrary, that’s exactly what his cheap destabilising strategy is.

I have no doubt he is also a ‘contributor’ to the unwitting NRA.

As an old KGB operative and wanting to reestablish Russia as a power, he doesn’t have to do or spend much to enable self destruction amongst NATO members.

The Baltic states look at the Ukraine situation and wonder whether they are being lined up for similar treatment by way of internal divisions leading to ‘assistance’.

 

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, Ryeman said:

On the contrary, that’s exactly what his cheap destabilising strategy is.

I have no doubt he is also a ‘contributor’ to the unwitting NRA.

As an old KGB operative and wanting to reestablish Russia as a power, he doesn’t have to do or spend much to enable self destruction amongst NATO members.

The Baltic states look at the Ukraine situation and wonder whether they are being lined up for similar treatment by way of internal divisions leading to ‘assistance’.

 

 

Just not convinced that regaining the Russian empire is his raison d'être (despite his KGB past).

 

The UK has a Defence Secretary, hard to think we get one even worse than the last one, who has got this conspiracy complex.  Russia could be more worried that certain Western European, and Central European, countries are just looking more and more unstable and wish to protect themselves.  Last time one went off the rails it cost them 20m citizens ie WW2.

 

Might be easier for them to deal with a fractured Europe.  

 

Russian harvest has been the biggest ever and they will export 50M tonnes and arctic is opening up for more gas/oil and sea routes so as long as oil prices stay north of 50 USD /barrel.  Yes they have a concern for million of Russian who emigrated to the Baltic countries and other ex-Soviet states, same as most countries would have for their emigrants.  I suspect economic prosperity is more important than territory, ex-Russian emigrants also in their consideration of course.       

 

Ukraine and part of that country's desire to  have a FTA with the EU could mean that the EU will not be much smaller in the longer run even with UK departing.   Huge potential for cheaper labour and even replace Turkey in their role as cheapest labour place with the EU Customs Union.     

[Ryeman]

Putin has turned the IoT into a WMD.

Staying out of gaol is his motivation for winning, by any means, the next election, and the next.......

Robert Mueller is following the money to the extent he has identified Putin’s trolls n bots factory.  They’d better not want to vacation outside of Russia.

Rachel Maddow is worth watching for a clear analysis of the dodgy goings-on in America........but there is an even bigger picture.

Edited 24 February, 2018 by Ryeman

[lol-lol]

Good article in the Gruaniad.........

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/22/how-has-the-brexit-vote-affected-the-economy-february-verdict

===================================================================================================================================

How has the Brexit vote affected the economy? February verdict

Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has on growth, prosperity and trade in the UK

• The economy is starting to deteriorate 
• Experts debate Brexit watch data

 

===============================

US wages rising quite quick now.  

Would be nice to see UK wages reverse the gap with current inflation (3 to 4%) instead of languishing around 2% per year leading to a decrease in many wages by 10 to 20% in real terms over the last 8 years or so. 

Unemployment back on the rise with 50,000 added in the last 3 months.

 

Edited 25 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

Finally a clear line between Cons and Labour.

 

Local elections in 65 days could have extra spice now.

 

[Eddie-NL]

24 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

Finally a clear line between Cons and Labour.

 

Local elections in 65 days could have extra spice now.

 

Shame that Labour didn't do this at the GE

[moley]

24 minutes ago, Eddie-NL said:

Shame that Labour didn't do this at the GE

Momentum had to wait to see which way the Tories would go to see what their policy would be to gain a few votes. Usual Corbyn / McDonnell / Momentum speel, without any actual facts on how to achieve this. Still the younger voters will believe it.

However I'm not sure what the difference between Labour's 'Customs Union' with the EU and the Tories leaving the EU customs union and then negotiating a trading deal?

Negotiate all you like the EU will say NON.

[lol-lol]

4 hours ago, moley said:

Momentum had to wait to see which way the Tories would go to see what their policy would be to gain a few votes. Usual Corbyn / McDonnell / Momentum speel, without any actual facts on how to achieve this. Still the younger voters will believe it.

However I'm not sure what the difference between Labour's 'Customs Union' with the EU and the Tories leaving the EU customs union and then negotiating a trading deal?

Negotiate all you like the EU will say NON.

 

The Cons seem to have know clear EU strategy unless we interpret this totally unrealistic wish to have access to the EU in some areas of trade and finance but then wanting to do its own trade deals in other sectors, the EU will not allow the UK to become a back door for cheap Chinese goods that would wreck several sectors of the EU economy.  

 

Agreeing with the EU's external tariff arrangements whilst maintaining EU market access, ensuring no custom border across Ireland to maintain the peace is the only way of preventing the 2% to 8% decline in the UK economy which has started to cost tens of thousand of jobs and brought about inflation running a percent or 2 ahead of wages making many many poorer and poorer year on year.  The UK can use its trade imbalance leverage with the EU, whilst still achieving border control, in a Norway-Switzerland-Turkey configured deal which should satisfy intelligent voters, but that is the rub. 

 

With the UK still going about a billion pounds further in to national debt each week it is becoming clear that leaving the EU creates dire economic conditions that is affecting jobs, pensions and wages and maybe that will sharpen the minds of the true price to pay of isolationism which is the realism of leaving the EU and not the pipe dream of the UK going it alone in the 21st century world economy which is a very different place from the 19th century one many seem to be believing is the status quo.   

[moley]

7 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

The Cons seem to have know clear EU strategy unless we interpret this totally unrealistic wish to have access to the EU in some areas of trade and finance but then wanting to do its own trade deals in other sectors, the EU will not allow the UK to become a back door for cheap Chinese goods that would wreck several sectors of the EU economy.  

This is what Corbyn has said he wants.

Quote

Mr Corbyn addresses the government's primary reason for opposing the formation of a new customs union: that it would stop the UK doing trade deals around the world.

He says he wants to ensure that the UK will be able to negotiate new trade deals "in the national interest".

 

Spot the difference?

Quote

in practice, there may be fewer differences than meets the eye. Jeremy Corbyn wants a customs union that would still give the UK a say in EU-led trade deals - which the EU may resist.

And Theresa May has spoken of a new "customs arrangement," which would, er, allow independent trade deals. But it's currently in the government and opposition's political interests to emphasise the differences, not the similarities.

 

[lol-lol]

10 minutes ago, moley said:

This is what Corbyn has said he wants.

 

Spot the difference?

 

 

Briliant analergy by the ex head of dept of international trade civil service department who said that leaving the eu single market for going it alone is like trading a 3 course meal for a bag of crisps.

 

spot on.

 

[gadgetman]