EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[@Lee]

New Dusseldorf Carnival float. I think it's quite apt. Treeza Maybot giving birth to a monstrosity 
 

 

[skomaz]

7 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

In the early 1990s with house prices falling so far people who had bought in the previous 5 years in severe negative equity.  Paying hundreds of pounds a month for a house that was losing value hand over fist and that did not reverse in to positive equity until after 1997.

 

Then the financial crash when interest rates went to near zero.

 

And now today where inflation has returned and we are all expecting interest rates to rise and the cost of loans and mortgages to also rise.

 

 

All of the above are standard financial 'risks' that people buy into and agree to when borrowing money or purchasing a house - and things that people should consider carefully before they do so...

[@Lee]

Robert Peston on Facebook;
 

What and where is the UK’s mission outside the European Union?

Arguably for this country Brexit is almost as significant for the UK as the reunification of West and East Germany in 1990. History could one day prove to us it is more significant.

The point is that German reunification was characterised by a huge and expensive national effort to raise the living standards and productivity of the former Communist east - a common purpose to build a less unequal Germany that involved considerable sacrifice by the richer West.

And if Brexit was in part a protest by millions of people on low incomes about the long-term stagnation of their living standards and the collapse of their hopes for a more prosperous future - which the Prime Minister acknowledged when she took office on 13 July 2016 - the appropriate response would surely be a collective effort to correct the outrageous inequalities between old and young, north and south, property owners and renters, educated and uneducated.

But Brexit has not united us on a long march to a fairer richer Britain. It has achieved the opposite: debate rages about the kind of Brexit that would be best for Britain and for which the people voted; and a divided government is so consumed by its own internal disagreements about how we should leave the EU, and by the unprecedented logistical challenges of extricating us without mishap or unnecessary cost, that the priority of healing the country has been and is crowded out.

Perhaps it could not be otherwise. Almost all Germans were and are comfortable being both German and EU citizens. As a nation we remain split on these most basic ideas of identity.

That said, what needs to be fixed in Britain - a chronic shortage of affordable housing, lamentably poor productivity growth, a creaking health service, scandalously inadequate care for the infirm elderly - would need fixing in or out of the EU. The central argument of my recently published book, WTF, is that the Brexit vote reflected the unfairness of how we run this place, but that leaving the EU will not in and of itself rectify that unfairness.

And if there is a tragedy associated with Brexit, it is that within government and Whitehall, the project of turning that vote into constitutional and economic reality - the greatest logistical challenge faced by the machinery of government since 1945 - crowds out so much else that in “peace time” would be an imperative.

Brexit is a black hole that sucks in the emotional, intellectual and financial resources of government and civil service.

But fear not. Presumably the process of healing can begin on Wednesday, when the foreign secretary writes his Valentine’s Day love letter to the nation, as the first instalment of a sextet of speeches by Davis, Fox, Lidington and May (twice), billed by Downing Street as the Road to Brexit.

Will these give us the settled position on our future trading, migration and security relationships with the EU, that will at last turn negotiations with the EU into a dry technical affair? Will they unite a cabinet and parliamentary Tory party so ideologically split on whether taking back control of lawmaking trumps cheaper access to the EU market as to rival Cold War tensions between East and West Germany.

Here is a clue why it might be naive to assume peace in the Cabinet is about to break out. I asked a senior member of the government why none of the ministers arguing most passionately for deeper stronger links with the EU - notably the chancellor, home secretary and business secretary - had been included in the Road-to-Brexit public debate, even though each would presumably have a legitimate view, not least because they have been trusted to occupy these great offices of state.

“I think Downing Street is just trying to frame the fact that Boris has been itching to make a speech and can’t eventually be stopped” I was told.

In other words, the PM seems still fixated on holding her party together, rather than on what may be in the national interest. And if it is all about reconciling the irreconcilable in the Tory Party, what is most likely to emerge is not some sharply delineated plan for independent Britain redivivus, but a gloop that will see Merkel, Macron and our EU interlocutors still asking May “what do you actually want?”

[@Lee]

Oh yeah, everyone knew what they voted for, right?
Anyone, ANYONE who believes the lie that Brex**** will somehow magically catapult the UK into a world of riches and power is, quite simply, deluded.
 

Quote

Brexit was always going to hold risks for us. We are the only UK region to export more than we import, and more than half of that goes to other parts of the EU, including hundreds of thousands of the cars that roll off the Nissan production lines in Sunderland. Around 160,000 jobs in the north-east are directly linked to our membership of the single market, while our region’s universities received £155m from the EU in the current funding cycle alone.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/09/brexit-means-north-east-poorer-leaked-report?CMP=share_btn_fb

The clues are all there. The right wing media haven't shown a single positive that hasn't been discredited. Instead The Scum, Torygaff, Heil and Excess continue to denounce 'remoaners', and tell us to 'get behind Brex****' as if that will somehow make jumping off a cliff give them a softer landing.

Yeah, you all knew what you voted for...............................

[lol-lol]

14 hours ago, skomaz said:

 

All of the above are standard financial 'risks' that people buy into and agree to when borrowing money or purchasing a house - and things that people should consider carefully before they do so...

 

I think it is the duty of us older and hopefully wiser generation to inform the younger generation of what horrors we lived through and perhaps even remind people that Gordon Brown statement that there would be "no more Boom and Bust" is just not realistic, especially with event like BREXIT on the horizon and the history of shown by the 2008 financial crisis started in New York and early 90s housing falls.

 

 With kids looking to go on the housing market the best advice is not to extend ones self too far and with UK and US interest rates set to rise a quarter percent most annual quarters ov er the next two or three years to factor that in to their mortgage choices for Standard Variable or Tracker or have a long enough period of Fixed to cope with these interest rate rises.  But then how does one know that ones job is going to be in the same place for 5 years or so or that rents to cover mortgages will be achievable.      

[lol-lol]

15 hours ago, Lee01 said:

New Dusseldorf Carnival float. I think it's quite apt. Treeza Maybot giving birth to a monstrosity 
 

 

 

How can people say the Germans do not have a sense of humour, Grimm though it might be viewed as.

Edited 13 February, 2018 by lol-lol

[lol-lol]

On 10/17/2017 at 13:31, S00perb said:

Still waiting for the good news about why Brexit is good for us...... are we nearly there yet?

 

UK hate crimes surge on Brexit

Hate crimes in Britain surged by the highest amount on record last year,

 

UK inflation at highest since April 2012

The fall in the pound since last year's Brexit vote has been one factor behind the rise in the inflation rate, as the cost of imported goods has risen.

 

Post-Brexit customs checks could cost 4 billion pounds a year, study says

Those declarations cost 20 to 45 pounds each, the IfG said, putting the total additional cost at 4 billion to 9 billion pounds.

 

Brexit: UK already set to lose £16bn from falling immigration

 Data from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility suggested the huge bill could soar even higher if Theresa May pushes on with the discredited plan to reduce net migration to the “tens of thousands”

 

David Davis's own advisor says Brexit is a 'dead weight' that carries a 'permanent cost' of 1.2% UK GDP

"The cost comes in the form of the imposition of new time and out-of-pocket expense on cross-border trade, for example time spent at customs and the administrative cost of getting through customs.

"... Importantly, nearly all of this is a cost which will occur no matter what is negotiated between the UK and the EU and it is a dead weight cost for the economy (not a transfer as with tariffs). This goes someway to explaining why there is always likely to be a small negative cost to leaving the EU in the long run."

 

 

 

OR..............

 

 

 

Retail Price Index All Items Inflation still at 4%.  EE phone bills going up by 4%.

 

But will wages go up by similar in the next few weeks or will the norm of the post Brexit pain continue for another year or 5?

[Skoda_newby]

I only weigh into this from time to time, but it's with the same message. Can we not see the big picture here? The 'powers that be' do not want a splinter state. They want a single world government. A New World Order. It's real. This POS is a key player:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/11/george-soros-best-for-britain-pro-eu-100000

 

And again, if this was a divorce proceeding and we were watching him (Britain) splitting up with her (EU) then I'm absolutely sure we would be sitting there thinking "what a spiteful, bitter, vindictive, calculating, twisted, scornful bitch she is. The sooner you're rid of her the better."

 

Now we are seeing 'her' true colours, there is no way I'd want anything to do with the EU.

[Ootohere]

No doubt more UK Properties will be getting bought by Overseas Registered companies in the next 14 months up to Brexit and then that will continue.

The UK taxation setup being such an easy touch and the British Isles being a good place to own property.

Cheaper to have property than to have your money in a bank.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-42666274 

[181ce]

More like level headed reasonable female gives up on shortsighted arrogant nationalistic bigot and walks away

Edited 13 February, 2018 by 181ce

[181ce]

42 minutes ago, Skoda_newby said:

I only weigh into this from time to time, but it's with the same message. Can we not see the big picture here? The 'powers that be' do not want a splinter state. They want a single world government. A New World Order. It's real. This POS is a key player:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/11/george-soros-best-for-britain-pro-eu-100000

 

And again, if this was a divorce proceeding and we were watching him (Britain) splitting up with her (EU) then I'm absolutely sure we would be sitting there thinking "what a spiteful, bitter, vindictive, calculating, twisted, scornful bitch she is. The sooner you're rid of her the better."

 

Now we are seeing 'her' true colours, there is no way I'd want anything to do with the EU.

More like level headed reasonable female gives up on shortsighted arrogant nationalistic bigot and walks away

 

[Ootohere]

She would never do that with Donald, Nigel or Jacob.

[@Lee]

Watch through to the end and tell me why we're doing this.

 

 

[@Lee]

Quote

Brexit: Russia had four times more social media impact than Leave campaign

Think about it  The desatabilisation of Europe is Putin's wet dream.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-russia-had-four-times-more-social-media-impact-leave-campaign-1660753

[terrytowelling]

It's a good job our government is ruggedly honest and has the country's best interest at heart..........

[@Lee]

Oxford professor Ngaire Woods on Brexit and the Single Market

 

 

 

 

 

[lol-lol]

On 1/3/2018 at 12:15, lol-lol said:

 

Perhaps we can rename it the Arctic-Pacific Rim Trade deal as it is getting easier to travel across the Arctic sea with all the global warming and climate change ?  

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 

Should be a useable seaway for container boats most of the year round in the next few years.  

 

On 1/3/2018 at 12:15, lol-lol said:

 

 

 

 

 

Well it looks like the UK and EU is getting some new neighbours due to climate change

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/video-eduard-toll-breaks-ice-on-the-northern-sea-route#gs.wBCmIBE

 

Perhaps Bojo and crew knew that the world is opening up physically and Britannia is well place to be the gateway to the arctic and more direct trade with Asia rather having to use Suez or even the Cape of Good Hope (should be Cape Agulhas actually as tip of S.Africa) ?    (Our maybe he, Dr Fox and Double D are merchants of chaos?).    Time will tell.  

 

=====================================================================================================================================================

Teekay recently took delivery of the Eduard Toll, the first of six icebreaking LNG carriers that it is chartering to Sovcomflot for Novatek's Yamal LNG plant. The vessel made history in January by completing the first unescorted east-to-west transit of the Northern Sea Route during wintertime, and Teekay has released a time lapse video captured during the voyage (above).   The Toll is the fourth of the new Arc7 class of icebreaking LNG tankers for Yamal LNG. The vessels'  ice navigation capabilities will cut down the shipping time between the plant in the Russian far north and Asian customers by nearly a month. Without these groundbreaking ships, Novatek would have to ship its products westward, around Europe, then east through the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to reach Japan and South Korea.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[domhnall]

 

 

 

On 13/02/2018 at 13:20, lol-lol said:

 

Retail Price Index All Items Inflation still at 4%.  EE phone bills going up by 4%.

 

But will wages go up by similar in the next few weeks or will the norm of the post Brexit pain continue for another year or 5?

 

 

 

just to correct that post you quoted about UK hate crime - spotted this headline

 

https://www.scotsman.com/news/hate-crimes-in-scotland-fell-after-brexit-vote-1-4237818

 

Hate crime in Scotland declined - which would suggest the increase in England was much more significant than the headline would suggest

 

 

[lol-lol]

On 2/15/2018 at 10:30, domhnall said:

 

just to correct that post you quoted about UK hate crime - spotted this headline

https://www.scotsman.com/news/hate-crimes-in-scotland-fell-after-brexit-vote-1-4237818

Hate crime in Scotland declined - which would suggest the increase in England was much more significant than the headline would suggest

 

But does this include any hate crimes of Scots against the English for being so daft for leaving the EU rather than against Immigrant form outside the UK?

I am looking forward to my trip to Dundee for a business visit with my Glasgow office colleagues and maybe seeing my Aberdeen colleagues soon too.

Come on Scotland, staying the EU !  

[lol-lol]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/brexit-bulletin-job-cuts-come-to-car-country

Brexit Bulletin: Job Cuts Come to Car Country

By 

Emma Ross-Thomas  -  February 16, 2018, 7:40 AM GMT

• Job losses and production cuts hit the U.K. auto industry
• May meets Merkel as Barnier speaks at Munich conference

The shock of Brexit is beginning to hit the U.K. car industry.

 

Jobs have been cut at Vauxhall Motors, production curbs are coming at Jaguar Land Rover, and union bosses fear this is just the prelude, Bloomberg’s Suzi Ring and Chris Jasper report.  “People shouldn’t underestimate the dangers that Brexit’s bringing,” said John Cooper, a union representative who has worked in the car industry in Ellesmere Port for 50 years. “Why would Nissan continue to invest in the northeast when it’s got a plant in Spain where it can build the same car without a 10 percent tariff?”

 

[Ryeman]

Who do you think has the most to lose from the Brexit bargaining process?.

[Bignij]

6 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

But does this include any hate crimes of Scots against the English for being so daft for leaving the EU rather than against Immigrant form outside the UK?

I am looking forward to my trip to Dundee for a business visit with my Glasgow office colleagues and maybe seeing my Aberdeen colleagues soon too.

Come on Scotland, staying the EU !  

I agree. I'm seriously thinking about retiring to Scotland before they leave the UK and rejoin Europe and stop me retiring to Scotland.  If that makes sense? 

[lol-lol]

7 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

Who do you think has the most to lose from the Brexit bargaining process?.

 

UK Consumers.

[Ryeman]

I just don’t see a reason for auto manufacturers to stay in the UK unless wages and taxes are lower and there remains free trade with the EU.

Rationalising production facilities is an ongoing process in the quest for lower unit costs and you need to be somewhat indispensable to feel safe, I would have thought.

[lol-lol]

35 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

I just don’t see a reason for auto manufacturers to stay in the UK unless wages and taxes are lower and there remains free trade with the EU.

Rationalising production facilities is an ongoing process in the quest for lower unit costs and you need to be somewhat indispensable to feel safe, I would have thought.

 

Corporate tax rate is low in the UK. low in Germany but quite high in Spain (25%).

 

Nissan have been struggling after a scandal in Japan and UK sales have slowed.  PSA, who now own GM Europe, have already threatened to close plants that are not profitable and in a low margin business import duties and the customs procedures being outside the EU all have to be weighed up. 

 

In the upper middle to expensive cars buyer may well pay a premium if the cars is the image they want.  Miss my S type Jag but as to an XE or XF does not stir my blood and the F Type is quite a lot even though beautiful.  Most Jaaag-Land Rover sales are outside the EU so will not be affected by the Honda, Nissan, Toyota is a worry as it is with  BMW-Mini and GM/PSA as the will follow the cheaper landed cost in to the main market ie the 27EU (unless there is an FTA deal and why should they when they can scope up manufacturing and European Distribution Centres to be in rather than out of that market.