The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Topic.

[skomaz]

Ok - in an effort to lighten the mood - I think one of our rabbits might be self-isolating...

 

 

[shyVRS245]

1 minute ago, skomaz said:

Ok - in an effort to lighten the mood - I think one of our rabbits might be self-isolating...

 

 

You could try sticking a thermometer up it's backside if it's friendly enough without biting you to check?

[moley]

12 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

They always deteriorate eventually - those armchair knowitalls who think they could have done better usually drag things down using hindsight...   it's juts a case of when in the thread it happens   🙄

Yeah, Everyone's an expert and they can't work out why the UK wasn't prepared for the pandemic, when every other country in the world is perfect and have the pandemic under control. Of course if Corbyn had been PM the pandemic would have been under control weeks ago.

[@Lee]

I couldn't care less what flavour of Government was in power TBH. If Labour, Lib Dems, The Greens or The Monster Raving Loony Party had handled it the same way I'd be equally critical. Actually, The Monster Raving Loony party might have done a better job than any of them.
The fact of the matter is it was known FOUR years ago that the UK was ill prepared for a pandemic but it wasn't acted upon.
They've done pretty much everything against WHO guidance. Even Matt Hancock today has only self-isolated for seven days and the WHO says fourteen days.
He could still be shedding the virus.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/

[Ootohere]

Matt Hancock MP talks about the sacrifice of colleagues in the NHS.   Well there are those in the NHS that are making the ultimate sacrifice.

 

He is not a NHS Employee or worker,

he has a NHS badge, is a Secretary of State in his latest post.  gets paid as a MP and a MP being a Minister.

So they are not colleagues by any stretch of the definition. 

 

Rolling up your sleeves for a photo opportunity to move some PPE supplies never changed him from a politician to a Health worker.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Hancock

 

Edited 2 April, 2020 by Roottootemblowinootsoot

[gadgetman]

Unfortunately the government response to this crisis is/will be political. 

 

Once the crisis is over, it will be dissected as to how good or bad the government acted, and any historical warnings it ignored. 

 

As the party in power for 10 years, any good or bad analysis will fall on the Tories. 

 

[xman]

58 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

Sorry you feel that way but there's only one Government who's been handling this crisis and have ignored WHO advice that's being followed by most of the rest of the world

 

Unlike Sweden then.

[g_tee]

1 hour ago, shyVRS245 said:

Gwent seems to be a particular hot spot of concern.

 

Yes, I've no idea why. It's nowhere near as populated as Cardiff/Swansea areas. I grew up in the north of Gwent. Very, very poor. Though, as the virus has proved, it isn't picky - Lombardy is an affluent area of Italy.

 

[gadgetman]

Why Hancock should still be in isolation 

 

 

 

[@Lee]

4 minutes ago, xman said:

 

Unlike Sweden then.

I did say most of the rest of the world. My point was that there's only one Government currently in power in the UK. 
Apologies for causing confusion.

[xman]

21 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

I did say most of the rest of the world. My point was that there's only one Government currently in power in the UK. 
Apologies for causing confusion.

Theres usually only one Government in power, methinks you are spinning.

 

47 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

The fact of the matter is it was known FOUR years ago that the UK was ill prepared for a pandemic but it wasn't acted upon.

 

Name me a few countries that were well prepared for a pandemic then, not just one.

 

And while we're at it name me some countries well prepared for asteroid collisions, supervolcanoes, climate change, ......

Edited 2 April, 2020 by xman

[@Lee]

13 minutes ago, xman said:

Theres usually only one Government in power, methinks you are spinning.

 

 

Name me a few countries that were well prepared for a pandemic then, not just one.

 

And while we're at it name me some countries well prepared for asteroid collisions, supervolcanoes, climate change, ......

Well, after a quick search I found these three URLs which all put the US and the UK in 1st and 2nd place respectively as being most prepared.
Interesting to note that in one of the tables Germany ranked 14th. This leads me to think that maybe it's not how well prepared a country is but who's holding the reins so to speak.
https://www.businessinsider.com/best-prepared-countries-for-a-pandemic-still-not-that-prepared-2020-3?r=DE&IR=T
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-pandemic-preparedness-ranked/
https://www.statista.com/chart/20629/ability-to-respond-to-an-epidemic-or-pandemic/

As for asteroid collision preparedness, you're just being silly. 

Google search criteria: which countries were best prepared for a pandemic

[moley]

1 minute ago, Lee01 said:

As for asteroid collision preparedness, you're just being silly. 

That's exactly what the Dinosaurs said. 

[@Lee]

Quote

The SAMBA II machines, developed by Diagnostics for the Real World, provide a simple and accurate system for the diagnosis of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19. They will be used by healthcare workers at point-of-care in order to rapidly diagnose patients, directing those who test positive for the infection to dedicated wards. They can also help identify which healthcare workers are infected, enabling those who test negative to return to the front line.

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

[xman]

1 hour ago, Lee01 said:

As for asteroid collision preparedness, you're just being silly. 

 

Slightly off topic, but just for @Lee01

 

The USA take the possibility of asteroid collisions very seriously

 

 "a low-probability but high-consequence event" 

 

https://www.space.com/40943-nasa-asteroid-defense-plan.html

 

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

 

On April 2, 2020 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.

 

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Velocity (km/s)	Diameter (m)
2020 FW5	2020-Mar-28	9.3 LD	13.6	25
2020 FE2	2020-Mar-28	4.5 LD	7.1	22
2010 GD35	2020-Mar-29	15.3 LD	12	43
2020 FK4	2020-Mar-29	4.4 LD	5.3	11
2006 FH36	2020-Mar-30	11.3 LD	5.1	93
2020 FB1	2020-Mar-30	19.1 LD	10.5	27
2020 FB4	2020-Mar-31	12 LD	6.2	16
2020 FA1	2020-Mar-31	18.3 LD	2.2	18
2020 FG6	2020-Apr-02	5.4 LD	7.1	14
2019 GM1	2020-Apr-02	8.9 LD	4.2	14
2020 FK3	2020-Apr-03	10.4 LD	9.7	28
2015 FC35	2020-Apr-04	10.5 LD	13.8	148
2020 FL6	2020-Apr-04	5.1 LD	12.1	32
2020 DT3	2020-Apr-05	17.6 LD	11.8	203
2020 FQ6	2020-Apr-06	17.9 LD	11.2	32
2020 FL4	2020-Apr-09	10.5 LD	4.6	16
2020 FW4	2020-Apr-09	19.7 LD	18.6	159
2019 HM	2020-Apr-10	7.2 LD	3.2	23
363599	2020-Apr-11	19.2 LD	24.5	224
2020 FX3	2020-Apr-15	14.1 LD	10.3	56
2020 FV6	2020-Apr-19	10.6 LD	19.7	93
2019 HS2	2020-Apr-26	13.6 LD	12.6	17
2019 GF1	2020-Apr-27	18.7 LD	3.2	12
2020 FM6	2020-Apr-27	14.3 LD	17	151
52768	2020-Apr-29	16.4 LD	8.7	2457
2020 DM4	2020-May-01	18.4 LD	6.4	162
438908	2020-May-07	8.9 LD	12.8	282
2016 HP6	2020-May-07	4.3 LD	5.7	31
388945	2020-May-10	7.3 LD	8.8	295
2000 KA	2020-May-12	8.9 LD	13.5	162
478784	2020-May-15	8.5 LD	3.6	28
136795	2020-May-21	16.1 LD	11.7	892

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

Edited 2 April, 2020 by xman

[VWD]

1 hour ago, moley said:

That's exactly what the Dinosaurs said. 

Moley- are you suggesting that Lee ( of various names) is a Dinosaur ? ( I prefer my typo of Dinasour) .😉

[@Lee]

3 hours ago, xman said:

 

Slightly off topic, but just for @Lee01

 

The USA take the possibility of asteroid collisions very seriously

Years since the dinosaurs became extinct; ~65,000,000
Years since last pandemics; 20 (H1N1), 51 (H3N2), 62 (H2N2) 101 (Spanish Flu).
Trump should maybe invest more in the CDC Pandemic response team he cut rather than his Space Force vanity project  

[xman]

41 minutes ago, Lee01 said:

Years since the dinosaurs became extinct; ~65,000,000
Years since last pandemics; 20 (H1N1), 51 (H3N2), 62 (H2N2) 101 (Spanish Flu).
Trump should maybe invest more in the CDC Pandemic response team he cut rather than his Space Force vanity project  

 

But you said earlier that the US is the no.1 country in the world in pandemic preparedness.

 

Or perhaps better describe it as being as the least complacent compared to the rest of the world.

 

Would you have voted in previous elections for parties raising taxes significantly just to cover a Spanish flu scale event, which last happened over 100yrs ago when medical science was in its infancy and would probably be small fry with modern medicines and knowledge. Did any party even mention pandemic preparation in their manifestoes or policies? And would they, would you (i.e. the public) have willingly paid to manufacture 100,000 ventilators at several thousands of pounds a time, just in case. Keep in stock, maintain, repair. Buy and keep 100's of millions of disposable PPE kit in stock, renew every 2 years or whatever their shelf life is, just in case?

 

Its a black swan event on an unprecedented scale, unpredictable and happening unusually in the first world for a change.

 

Yes we know WHO keeps warning about how bad things may happen, but so do many other organisations, hunger, water, floods, weather events, climate change, the list is endless. There's only so much money to go around.

 

Easy to say told you so with benefit of hindsight.

 

What is the next global crisis after this one going to be and how should we prepare for it now?

 

Covid-19 did not even exist a few months ago, there is no vaccine, it happens to be a really, really bad virus, how would you @Lee01 if you were given the position of prime minister today (not sometime in the past) what would you do today?  Specifically.

 

 

 

Edited 3 April, 2020 by xman

[@Lee]

30 minutes ago, xman said:

 

But you said earlier that the US is the no.1 country in the world in pandemic preparedness.

Indeed I did. But you can't factor in the stupidity of a man who thought it was a Democratic hoax.

Or perhaps better describe it as being as the least complacent compared to the rest of the world.

 

Would you have voted in previous elections for parties raising taxes significantly just to cover a Spanish flu scale event, which last happened over 100yrs ago when medical science was in its infancy and would probably be small fry with modern medicines and knowledge.
I can't answer that particular point but I would vote for a party that would end the tax breaks given to the likes of Amazon, Google, Starbucks et al. I'd also recommend closing the dodgy offshore tax haven loopholes that allow people to funnel money out of the UK tax system.
Did any party even mention pandemic preparation in their manifestoes or policies?
Not that I'm aware of.
And would they, would you (i.e. the public) have willingly paid to manufacture 100,000 ventilators at several thousands of pounds a time, just in case. Keep in stock, maintain, repair. Buy and keep 100's of millions of disposable PPE kit in stock, renew every 2 years or whatever their shelf life is, just in case?

The manufacture of extra much needed ventilators has been a big talking point, for sure. What I wouldn't have done is throw money at companies who have no experience whatsoever in making complicated bits of kit to digger makers and would have asked actual makers of complicated kit 'how can we make more of these, what do you need and how quickly can we get on with it'. I also wouldn't have bitten off my nose to spite my face and opt out of joint procurement schemes.

Its a black swan event on an unprecedented scale, unpredictable and happening unusually in the first world for a change.

Tend to agree 

Yes we know WHO keeps warning about how bad things may happen, but so do many other organisations, hunger, water, floods, weather events, climate change, the list is endless. There's only so much money to go around.

We keep being told there's only so much money to go around but suddenly the magic money tree gets shaken, £13.4 Billion of NHS debt wiped off, money found to furlough people, money found to house the homeless etc etc. Yet people like Branson and Philip Green are wanting handouts from the Government as well. I get that they need to pay their staff but why don't they sell a few yachts or islands? 

Easy to say told you so with benefit of hindsight.

 

What is the next global crisis after this one going to be and how should we prepare for it now?

Climate change. It's real. One side effect of C-19 is fewer CO2 emissions so perhaps mother nature is already preparing us for it?

Covid-19 did not even exist a few months ago, there is no vaccine, it happens to be a really, really bad virus, how would you @Lee01 if you were given the position of prime minister today (not sometime in the past) what would you do today?  Specifically.

For one, I'd have listened to epidemiologists and actual scientists rather than behavioural scientists and the people at the WHO.
I wouldn't have employed an idiot like Cummings as a SPAD and I certainly wouldn't have thought that I know better than the actual scientists and do my own thing because I think know best and think I'm better than the rest of the world.

 

 

That's your questions answered. Can we get back to the non partisan topic now please  

[@Lee]

Quote

It seems to me that anyone calling for such a crisis not to be 'politicised' is just nervous about examining the answers they have given to these questions. The danger is that this will go the way of the gun debate in the US. Every time there is a mass shooting, there is a seamless transition from 'now is not the time to talk about it' to 'people just want to move on from talking about it'.

This crisis is political. If we ignore that, we waste the chance to review the choices that brought us where we are, and we compound the tragedy and loss of life.

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2020/04/02/coronavirus-is-political-don-t-let-them-tell-you-otherwise

[brettikivi]

Preparedness may also simply mean having a stockpile of stuff and being prepared and allowed to use it. Like here. Yes, this is a relatively small population in a big country with an interesting neighbour. It's the first time ever that the stockpile has been opened; it has millions of masks and 43 in intensive care in the Helsinki region.  But: it costs time, effort and money to be prepared, whether it's PPE, Salt or flood defences. It also takes vision and understanding to sell this to the population, and I'm not sure there are too many UK politicians willing to paint big pictures with long time horizons. Because that might mean no re-election.

 

Numbers here are on their way down... a chunk from the height now and I'd expect the block on Helsinki to really be removed after Easter. Not so convinced everyone's going to be free to roam the country after that, though. I'm also not convinced that "normal" will return - I simply don't see it.

Two weeks of quarantine *have* made a difference. 

 

More data: https://thl.fi/fi/web/infektiotaudit-ja-rokotukset/ajankohtaista/ajankohtaista-koronaviruksesta-covid-19/tilannekatsaus-koronaviruksesta

 

 - Bret

[cheezemonkhai]

This thread is brilliant.

 

People are experts on labs, lab equipment and preparedness. Public health and disaster management.

Perhaps you should get out of the armchairs and tell those doing it how to do it right.

 

The S.O. runs the testing for part of the U.K. and a lot of the stuff posted here and reported on TV is clear borrocks. I won’t get drawn into more detail, but suffice to say they’re all working flat out.

 

below are my personal thoughts:

 

 

- The scientists (not technicians as many doctors and others call them) require years of training and have been short for many many years.

- The machines are not just there doing nothing.

- different tests require different machines and reagents.

- The machines break down more often than you think. (unlike it systems many are not dual redundant)

- Reagents were/are a problem, regardless of what a company trying to sell stuff says.

- export bans from US and Europe were /are a problem.

 

Also how do you plan for a pandemic?

 

- what is the disease

- what do you stockpile

- what do you refresh it with

- what happens if you guessed wrong and the PPE/drugs/equipment you stockpiled is no use?

 

Hindsight is great, but it’s hard to plan for all possibilities without bankrupting the rest of the system. If they planned other things wouldn’t be available. Fancy dropping cancer treatments for stockpiles?

 

As already said by someone else....

 

One of the best forms of planning is to have machines and equipment made in the U.K.,. 
 

Should this carry on then the U.K. can call upon those industries to make PPE/machines/chemicals for the U.K./NHS instead of getting in the import queue. 
The EU countries (France) are refusing export too, so don’t even think about pulling that one either.

 

The government are doing what they can, as quickly as they can. Any government would have had similar struggles regardless of who or where they are.

Politicising this is cheap points scoring from those who don’t have to do it themselves.

A small brexit positive (there must be some) is the stockpiles of essentials for that event have at least come in useful.

Edited 3 April, 2020 by cheezemonkhai

[brettikivi]

.. I spoke too soon - the last 24 hours have seen 97 new infections. That's probably from the wave of exodus from Helsinki as they announced the roadblocks ahead of them being implemented, just like in Italy. A week later, the people movement is reflected in the infection statistics. I remain unconvinced that this is not part of a plan to allow a certain level of "herd immunity" by allowing a controlled level of infection to happen which remains under the capacity of the ICUs in place.

 

Every single person matters...stay home, do your bit.

 

Re: planning - I think part of the point for this country is that it has been accepted by a large swathe of the population that planning is necessary and useful. Looking beyond tomorrow is completely normal, especially in winter - you've no idea if you might be snowed in completely for a day or so, things may be difficult, so you adapt. And with the nuclear threat for the last 50 years, it's been a requirement to have planned and to keep those stockpiles refreshed and ready. Home-grown capacity, though, is rarely enough in extreme circumstances; lab testing is in very short supply, so tests are being sent to Korea (!). But this "normalcy" means it's part of the psyche - people going abroad to stock up on alcohol for the next weeks / months is normal and has been for a long time - the idea you can get everything tomorrow is alien here. I suspect that's helped, but it also means acceptance is there, as are the taxation rates to support it (and I'm talking a system which means anyone earning €60k has a marginal withholding rate of around 50%, so your take home of any extra earned is only 50%). But at times like this, you get to see where (at least some of) it goes. 

 

ETA: Apparently Sweden is looking to Finland with envy, as a political decision was made to run down some of the stock of their "crisis warehouse" and masks were destroyed as part of that. Decisions, decisions...

 

 - Bret

 

 

Edited 3 April, 2020 by brettikivi

[moley]

31 minutes ago, cheezemonkhai said:

People are experts on labs, lab equipment and preparedness. Public health and disaster management.

Perhaps you should get out of the armchairs and tell those doing it how to do it right.

Quite agree, but if they are so clever, why did they not predict the pandemic and advise the government accordingly? 

[Ootohere]

Face Masks were Stock piled.  Their use by date was past.  They had them tested and then distributed.

The same applies to other stuff that has been stockpiled and had use by dates that have past.

 

Matt Hancock again says today that Distribution and the logistics were difficult, he has had a week extra to come up with that.

 

Pity that the Distribution had not gone to AMAZON Distribution centres to start with unless deliveries were going direct from manufacturing and packing to the place of use.

Deliveries going to the AMAZON, DPD, Hermes, Post Office (Royal Mail) etc to use the delivery available while the Government stopped all distribution of rubbish that did not need home deliveries. 

Those items which are not essentials are easily identified by Whole sellers, retailers, distributors and HMRC.

 

The Government are always taking about using the Military just as they are again now, but that is usually a few weeks latter than when they could have been used first, but actually if things were in hand and planned as supposedly they were for B thing with commerce and businesses early on there was no need to require military assistance.

 

Canada and the USA had many millions of masks stockpiled for back ready for SARS, that will be as it was with many countries.

Past the date for use and requiring to be retested for efficiency.

 

 

 

Edited 3 April, 2020 by Roottootemblowinootsoot