Shortages UK

[cheezemonkhai]

Not really a shortage related post/story though is it?
 

More a story of how selling things at less than they cost isn’t a successful business model.

[PetrolDave]

On 17/09/2021 at 19:01, e-Roottoot said:

Carbon dioxide is a by product used by the meat industry.

Can they not use Nitrogen instead? There must be a plentiful supply of that from e.g. BOC as it's 79% of the atmosphere...

 

When I worked for a telecomms company we used to use 10 tonnes of liquid Nitrogen every week to run our HALT/HASS testing system.

[Ootohere]

If that gasses animals into a stupor and kills bacteria in the sealed meat packages & is economically viable on a commercial basis & the nitrogen is available then they might use nitrogen. 

But then the HGV / tanker driver shortage and production cutbacks will still be applicable.

Then you can not slaughter animals and then proccess for consumption without staff and you then need transportation.

Transportation will also be required for disposal of dead animals because local incineration is not going to be sustainable or practical.

 

Funeral Pyres are not going to be doing much for the UK's clean air aspirations, or help it's reputation as it hosts COP26.

 

http://hsa.org.uk/gaseous-methods/gaseous-methods

 

2018 shortage.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-44600298

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-44709905

 

 

 

 

 

Industrial processing of anything requires energy.

Even producing Gas for the generation of electricity requires gas, and moving oil from oil fields to refineries requires gas and then gas and oil to produce products like fuels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 19 September, 2021 by e-Roottoot

[@Lee]

20 hours ago, gadgetman said:

Christmas is looking like it'll be amazing this year 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/uks-energy-firms-hold-talks-with-business-secretary-amid-fears-gas-price-spike-could-lead-to-winter-fuel-shortages-12411007

Who could have seen that coming   Centrica; big donors to a certain party IIRC

 

Quote

The closure of the UK’s largest gas storage plant has prompted warnings that the country faces more volatile winter gas prices and is becoming too dependent on energy imports.

British Gas’s owner, Centrica, said it was permanently closing the Rough facility off the Yorkshire coast because it had become unsafe and uneconomic to reopen the facility, which had been temporarily shut over safety fears.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

Related
 

Quote

The UK could suffer gas supply shortages and increased energy costs when it leaves the EU, according to industry experts. Not great news when you consider the chaos that is already gripping the country with a week to go until the UK leaves the EU.

It’s thought that the UK’s reliance on gas imports could cause problems post-Brexit, as EU countries could restrict supply during colder periods to cater for their own citizens.

This, in turn could lead to shortages across the UK, alongside higher energy bills for households and businesses.

https://www.ukpower.co.uk/gas_electricity_news/will-the-uk-suffer-energy-shortages-after-brexit

Plus there was a fire this week at one of the UKs interconnetors causing a jump in energy prices and leccy capacity shortage
 

Quote

A fire halted a power link between France and Britain on Wednesday, squeezing tight UK electricity supply further and sending prices to near record highs.

Day-ahead British power prices jumped almost 19% on the news, nearing record highs hit this week exacerbated by low wind supply and soaring gas prices. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-national-grid-says-fire-ifa1-interconnector-site-2021-09-15/
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-58570893
https://www.epexspot.com/en

Mind you, with that new coal mine in Cumbria people can just run their cars on coal or wood gas. Just like the old days...
https://teara.govt.nz/en/video/21458/coal-gas-for-cars-1940s

 

Edited 19 September, 2021 by @Lee

[olduns]

On 14/09/2021 at 19:49, gadgetman said:

Whilst it solves the problem short term, at the expense of British companies & exports, a ruined Christmas due to shortages might focus a lot of minds. 

 

The government is going to be forced to add EU drivers & low skilled factory workers onto the in demand immigration list. 

 

They may even have to pay more than UK workers as an enticement which will be the real kicker for many. 

DHL, XPO, GXO et al are really pushing for staff.i'm currently on a project for Dixons Curry's in Newark, massive site which pre Brexit / Covid had 5000 working there, currently running at 3500 at the moment.

banners on the fence are advertising rates per hr of £10 - 12.50, double pay for overtime and £1000 bonus for anyone who gets someone to start. no idea on the shift patterns but from what i've seen its not exactly a hard job for £24-26k per yr.

as UK citizens don't appear to be jumping at the chance then as this is around the threshold - i think? - for employing EU workers then something has to give 🤷‍♂️

[gadgetman]

1 hour ago, olduns said:

DHL, XPO, GXO et al are really pushing for staff.i'm currently on a project for Dixons Curry's in Newark, massive site which pre Brexit / Covid had 5000 working there, currently running at 3500 at the moment.

banners on the fence are advertising rates per hr of £10 - 12.50, double pay for overtime and £1000 bonus for anyone who gets someone to start. no idea on the shift patterns but from what i've seen its not exactly a hard job for £24-26k per yr.

as UK citizens don't appear to be jumping at the chance then as this is around the threshold - i think? - for employing EU workers then something has to give 🤷‍♂️

Like I say, the ones complaining about foreigners are usually the permenant non workers, retired or those with a small foreign workforce. 

 

Happy to complain, but wouldn't do the same jobs they don't want taken by others 

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, olduns said:

DHL, XPO, GXO et al are really pushing for staff.i'm currently on a project for Dixons Curry's in Newark, massive site which pre Brexit / Covid had 5000 working there, currently running at 3500 at the moment.

banners on the fence are advertising rates per hr of £10 - 12.50, double pay for overtime and £1000 bonus for anyone who gets someone to start. no idea on the shift patterns but from what i've seen its not exactly a hard job for £24-26k per yr.

as UK citizens don't appear to be jumping at the chance then as this is around the threshold - i think? - for employing EU workers then something has to give 🤷‍♂️

 

My company is no 9 in the world's largest international freight forwarders are we are seeing the same right across the UK and ever other parts of the world.

 

Wages up well above the inflation rates, extra financial attractions, staff moving around for an extra couple of £k a year.

 

Perfect storm of loss of many European workers, massive extra work load due to BREXIT and additional covid actions.

 

Some of the cost of moving goods have gone up ten fold and lack of passenger air travel has reduced our opportunity to use air freight carried on air passenger aircraft.

 

Need the north polar ice to hurray up and melt so we can save time moving stuff from China via the Artic ocean.

 

Job mainly round the airports and ports but also the motorway corridors where more and more warehousing is going up.

 

My son starts in logistics on Tuesday, worst carrier moves as until the star trek transporter is widely used stuff needs to be moved around.   Hours can be long and odd but rewards pretty good.

 

[KenONeill]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

the Artic ocean

What's that? The world's biggest truck park?

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, KenONeill said:

What's that? The world's biggest truck park?

 

Arctic, indeed.

 

How much traffic will use the NW Passage route rather than the over Russia route ie anticlockwise looking from above the pole or clockwise.

 

If over Russia the a new rail terminal and port in North Norway, if NW Passage then expand existing Western European ports.

[@Lee]

More on the gas problems. Looking like four more gas suppliers could go bust as soon as next week. If that happens, customers won't be cut off but moved to another supplier. It's then up to the customer to hunt around again to find the best tariff that suits their needs. 
 

Quote

At least four of the smaller UK energy companies are expected to go bust next week amid soaring wholesale gas prices.

Industry sources have told the BBC that four firms have asked larger players to bid to take over the supply to one million customers.

The price rise has left some companies unable to provide their customers with the energy they have paid for.

Industry rules mean supplies will continue for affected customers, and they will not lose money owed to them.

The new company is also responsible for taking on any credit balances the customer may have.

But paying that credit out to customers is a further disincentive for companies to take on new business.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58610561

Some energy companies are seeking Government handouts to survive. I thought more suppliers would be good for the market and create competition. Perhaps selling them off for a quick buck wasn't such a clever move after all. 
 

Quote

U.K. energy companies are seeking a massive government bailout as a surge in gas and electricity prices threatens to push small unhedged suppliers out of business. 

After emergency talks all weekend, Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng is due to meet industry bosses on Monday. Time is pressing, as the CEO of one energy supplier warned it may not survive the winter without government help. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-20/energy-firm-green-warns-it-may-not-survive-winter-power-update?utm_content=bloomberguk&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-bloomberguk
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-considers-temporary-nationalisation-of-energy-companies-to-stop-collapse-b1923264.html

And Johnson has admitted that the supply chain problem could last for 'months'. IMO it'll be a bit longer than that outside the single market. I'd love to know if anyone can explain why not.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/supply-chain-gas-boris-johnson-b1923070.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1632091970

 

Quote

Soaring gas prices have forced the closure of two large UK fertiliser plants, sparking warnings of a looming shortage of ammonium nitrate that could hit food supplies as record energy prices start to reverberate through the global economy.

https://www.ft.com/content/b2e7b6ed-fa14-48e1-a463-4d3b09c654dd?fbclid=IwAR24KygWE4kb_IMCEAgjdy_pq9slevfHHvoQv-M-2sVQ-cC99dghFqhvLIk
I guess that means there will be a higher price to pay at the checkout next year if there's a crop shortage.   

Oh, and M&S have shut eleven shops in France citing brexit. Another benefit of leaving the Single Market is that you have more checks on your goods going abroad. Who knew?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58582860

At least John Lewis are chartering some ships to get enough stock in for Christmas. 
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58581812

From the archives. One of the reasons to stay in the EEC as it was then in 1975 was food prices and food security. The image is from one of the campaigns back then.
https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/objects/lse:fuv593baz/read/single#page/2/mode/1up
 

Edited 20 September, 2021 by @Lee

[@Lee]

Given their history, trust me; fill your freezers and stock up on candles.

[@Lee]

Could this be a part of the problem I wonder



https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/international-cooperation/key-partner-countries-and-regions/united-kingdom_en?fbclid=IwAR0t1ipx4Mv7C5WA_dNS3n9gFU6r1TrVgWp6pB6xg7wSslcErS5_ckTTU4Y

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, @Lee said:

Could this be a part of the problem I wonder



https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/international-cooperation/key-partner-countries-and-regions/united-kingdom_en?fbclid=IwAR0t1ipx4Mv7C5WA_dNS3n9gFU6r1TrVgWp6pB6xg7wSslcErS5_ckTTU4Y

 

Not only all the issues with electricity, and ofcourse much electricity is generated by gas these days, but the UK has incredibly low strategic reserves. 

 

Where as some countries have up to 2 months of gas reserves the UK only has one week.

 

With the collapse of many of the UK lecky and gas supply companies, many who have not bought contracts to forward but most of their gas at a good lowish steady price, can do little else but go to the wall as they would be out of pocket to the tune of £200 per customer.

 

Big question is for the half million to a million UK customers whose suppliers are just about to go bust who is going to pay the £200 gap ?

 

Gas price cannot be raised above the price gap but the spot market is way above the cap.

 

The UK government would have to be the supplier of last choice and be forced to sell at the cap and buy at market value as too late to get a contract for this winter unless they can charter their own ships etc.

 

More hundreds of millions to add on to the UK debt by having a free market without sufficient safeguards.

 

Let us pray for a mild winter that has lots of wind, and I do not mean politician rhetoric.

    

[Ootohere]

http://gridwatch.co.uk

 

Still nothing being spoken on the telly about the Coal Fired power stations being used and that they are paid to be on standby anyway, but are using coal now and what will happen with the price of that.

The UK through money at Diesel Farms as well and they are on standby unless they have been decommissioned or dismantled. 

 

If there is not a material shortage with fireplace equipment people will be opening up chimneys and using the Aga cooker etc.

Breaking out the Bottle Gas heaters that are illegal to use in many Social Housing properties.

 

The low emission / smokeless zones will become a thing of the last decade. 

People will be felling trees, beach combing for wood, cutting up pallets and generally robbing fuels sources where ever they can.

Michael Gove MP will be getting into stocking and going down chimneys to Save Christmas.

 

..................................

February 2022 is time for the new Interlinked smoke and heat alarms to fitted to every home in Scotland.

Some chance of that happening with every home in Scotland in the next 5 months.

 

As it is the equipment already fitted in lots of places is a total PITA and faulty, be that the lithium batteries or just manufacturing issues.

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

Not only all the issues with electricity, and ofcourse much electricity is generated by gas these days, but the UK has incredibly low strategic reserves. 

Yes, that was mentioned on Channel 4 news tonight. The UK has some 9 Terrawatt hours of has storage capacity and Italy and Germany have something like 160 Terrawatt hours storage capacity. The UK apparently relied on JIT gas supplies. 

Edited 20 September, 2021 by @Lee

[Ootohere]

#Memories. 

 

Of all those Gas Regulators / Gasometers you used to see beside roads back when there was good old coal gas. 

Now reclaimed land with building on and in the likes of Dundee where a new ECO Site will be built with a Bio Sphere like the Eden Ptoject.

Or maybe it will just stay for Fuels storage which might have to be imported coal. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_Holders

 

Edited 20 September, 2021 by e-Roottoot

[@Lee]

15 minutes ago, e-Roottoot said:

#Memories. 

 

Of all those Gas Regulators / Gasometers you used to see beside roads back when there was good old coal gas. 

Now reclaimed land with building on and in the likes of Dundee where a new ECO Site will be built with a Bio Sphere like the Eden Ptoject.

Or maybe it will just stay for Fuels storage which might have to be imported coal. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_Holders

 

I can't remember the last time I saw the ones in Southampton full. It could be as far back as 2001/2 when the new Southampton St. Mary's stadium was built right next to them.

[J.R.]

The then tenants of my UK property changed energy supplier without informing or consulting me as per their rental contract, these things happen, supplier was Solarplicity which had a really bad reputation. Not long after they fitted new smart gas & electric meters.

 

When I regained the property i contacting them with the meter readings, there was a problem that the new gas meter was not communicating & they could not validate my reading, said they would sort it out and send me a bill.

 

Nothing happened & I forgot all about it, it was convenient not to have any bills to pay, then I found they had gone bust & that EDF (I think) was taking on all their customers, they appear to have forgotten about me as its been 2 years now, tthere will no doubt be many others and loads more now that all the other companys are going to the wall.

 

Given that one company is still responsable for the physical supply, the pipework and the metering (Enedis in France, not sure who in the UK) and passing on the meter readings to the Energy Supplier you would think that it would be a simple matter to ensure that if there are 10 properties in a street that there are 10 supply contracts amongst the suppliers.

 

But then they probably don't care, as long as they can bill the energy suppliers they dont care that they might be giving it away without realising, but are they actually billing them for the subscribers who have dropped off the radar?

[lol-lol]

10 hours ago, @Lee said:

Yes, that was mentioned on Channel 4 news tonight. The UK has some 9 Terrawatt hours of has storage capacity and Italy and Germany have something like 160 Terrawatt hours storage capacity. The UK apparently relied on JIT gas supplies. 

 

I am surprised we did quote our reserves in British Thermal Units, a very small unit ie 

1 kWh =

3,412 BTU

 

Fortunately the UK has a maritime weather type and rarely get super cold for more than a few days, the winter of 1962/63 was an exception and I was only 1 years old.

 

Just in time, like microchips for car production JIT is looking a very bad idea in these times of global turmoil of supply. 

 

[KenONeill]

11 hours ago, e-Roottoot said:

Michael Gove MP will be getting into stockings

I could do without that image thanks! 

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

I am surprised we did quote our reserves in British Thermal Units, a very small unit ie 

1 kWh =

3,412 BTU

 

Fortunately the UK has a maritime weather type and rarely get super cold for more than a few days, the winter of 1962/63 was an exception and I was only 1 years old.

 

Just in time, like microchips for car production JIT is looking a very bad idea in these times of global turmoil of supply. 

 

This is the graphic C4 news used last night.


In completely unrelated news; in 2017 Centrica closed the UK's largest gas storage facility off Yorkshire saying it had become unsafe and not worth upgrading. A bit of a bad decision in hindsight. Maybe a few million or a billion would have been better invested to ensure fuel security rather than relying on LNG shipped from the middle east via canals that get blocked. Analysts warned them but obviously their worries were pooh-poohed. 
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica

Lots of anecdotal evidence of people being switched to British Gas companies after their supplier went under. Centrica are Conservative party donors IIRC.
Here's a completely unrelated I'm sure picture of Johnson and Sunak visiting British Gas last week 
 

https://www.centrica.com/media-centre/news/2021/prime-minister-and-chancellor-take-delivery-of-500th-british-gas-ev-van/
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/british-gas-boris-johnson-joke-290509/

I've included the parts about the Conservatives/ Centrica as it might help explain some of what's led to the gas shortages that happens in the background seeing as Centrica are party donors.

Edited 21 September, 2021 by @Lee

[Ootohere]

@lol-lol Re cold weather. 

https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment

 

You maybe want to check the last 7 winters and Cold Weather Payments of £25 for 7 day of 0*oC or forecast to be.

There are areas of Scotland that have had 7 weeks payments, some 5 weeks over these past weeks and places with 1 or 2.

These are from November- March. but some post code area would be getting them in October or April if the scheme covered those months.

Last winter it would have been 3 weeks in October for DD8 which is measured in Aboyne.

https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/the-338-areas-where-cold-weather-payments-are-now-available

 

 

So there are large areas of Scotland and some south that are rather cold for more than just days or a couple of weeks.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/cold-weather-payment-estimates-2020-to-2021

 

Edited 21 September, 2021 by e-Roottoot

[skomaz]

6 minutes ago, e-Roottoot said:

@lol-lol Re cold weather.

You maybe want to check the last 7 winters and Cold Weather Payments of £25 for 7 day of 0*oC or forecast to be.

There are areas of Scotland that have had 7 weeks payments, some 5 weeks over these past weeks and places with 1 or 2.

These are from November- March. but some post code area would be getting them in October or April if the scheme covered those months.

Last winter it would have been 3 weeks in October for DD8 which is measured in Aboyne.

 

So there are large areas of Scotland and some south that are rather cold for more than just days or a couple of weeks.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/cold-weather-payment-estimates-2020-to-2021

 

 

You have to remember George that some people in the southern areas of the UK seem to ignore even 'The North' exists, let alone Scotland...

Edited 21 September, 2021 by skomaz

[@Lee]

Is the cold weather payment separate from the warm home discount and if not can people who need to apply for both? 
 https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme

[Ootohere]

Nail on head. Too many think their area is one with record cold days, on the rare occasion.

That includes MP's that live in these areas, or do sometimes in the constituency, and in London and maybe another public funded accommodation where the expenses like utilities are paid for.

 

This September my heating is not on yet which is unusual. Mid October is when it usually needs to go on to keep the interior at above 16*oC, and that is £1 a day normally, 

then by November to December it is £2 a day for gas and when winter hits it is £3 a day for gas just to have the place at 18*C.

 

7 weeks of £25 was the most i had for a few winters, 5 weeks were common, and a few times 3, but there were weeks where the average 0*C was missed by 1 day.

 

Edited 21 September, 2021 by e-Roottoot