21 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

If the current projection of EV adoption at not only sales but miles driven, and not just by private cars but commercial vehicles then petrol stations that just sell hydrocarbon fuel and not EV charging are bound to struggle to survive with a rapidly decreasing clientele.

 

One can imagine diesel and petrol will be in the same situation as LPG is now.  This is going to in the early part of the next decade but seeing closed up petrol stations is bound to be an increasingly common site.  I hope many can adapt and have EV charging on the same site, but well separated as the two types of filling should be a very good distance a part and of course an expansion to the hot drinks etc facilities as EV, this decade, take a few minutes longer to get a charge say 20% to 70%, less so with income Li Fe Po4 technology batteries. 

 

Even if there are lots of ICE cars registered they will only get used for weekend jollies as EVs will, and are already, so much cheaper to use mile per mile so as we see EVs will be doing, on average, thousands of miles to use the Russian/Saudi etc go go juice.  Saudi just confirmed that the million barrel a day cut is planned to be implemented to the end of the year at least which is driving Brent and WTI crude to $100 a barrel.  Electricity should be getting cheaper and cheaper as more and more country to country interconnectivity and more wind coming on line from the North Sea.

 

As we know ICE cars are very complex with hundreds of specialist parts, air filters, bearings, con rods, piston rings, oil and water pumps, thermostats etc.  What should be a simple periodic replacement of thermostat and water pump on my Fabia diesel, last year, costs £750 as there is so much work plus the parts and even then with the car doing 70 mpg plus it is still nowhere near as cheap to run as my Zoe EV.  It will just be uneconomic to keep these vehicles on the road unless one does it as a hobby as they will not be an economic choice.

 

May be so, or there again, maybe not, time will tell. We have had decades of ICE powered cars, so it is not going to disappear just like that, as long are loads of people around who have been used to them and have grown with them will not make the transition to electric as willingly as the younger generation many of whom are used to both types of power plant. I'd give at least another 30 to 40 years for the world to begin to get around to resembling how you describe it.

 

Who knows, the world may be nothing like how either us thinks it will be then, maybe everybody will begin the actual true harm that the raw materials for EV cars will be doing to the world and may have reduced or ceased production as they discover EVs are another diesel blunder after all and the world has rapidly moved on to a completely new ideology and propulsion system. 

 

On another topic you mentioned cars, namely your diesel powered Fabia doing 70mpg and is nowhere as cheap as your Zoe EV to run, which currently is true for city driving, but may not be so in say 20 years time, when with correct servicing, the Fabia could well still on it same engine and same pistons etc but the Zoe will more than likely be on new batteries (if they are still available) etc. and the whole situation could be reversed. EV's are still a relative unknown when to their longevity status. The bearings in the electric motor will begin to wear and allow the rotor to collide with the stator and destroy itself etc, the reduction gears may have issues. All of these are possible and then the real world costs of having those issues put right may well exceed the costs of the thermostat and water pump replacement replacements cost on the Fabia, who knows?

 

Bottom line is, until these cars have been around as long as ICE cars, we don't really know just what the future holds both for the cars or the true environmental impact they will have on the world, i.e., are we actually just moving the environmental negative impact away from populated areas to vary sparsely populated area's that may yet prove to have a nasty sting in the tail for everyone, we don't honestly yet know.

 

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

my Fabia diesel, last year, costs £750 as there is so much work plus the parts and even then with the car doing 70 mpg 

 

Considering the engine capacity and the car's weight, size and carrying capacity etc, it's not that impressive, given my car was doing over 71 on the journey home from doing a photoshoot at a local airfield on Saturday.

Edited 18 September, 20232 yr by Graham Butcher

23 minutes ago, Graham Butcher said:

Considering the engine capacity and the car's weight, size and carrying capacity etc, it's not that impressive, given my car was doing over 71 on the journey home from doing a photoshoot at a local airfield on Saturday.

 

Fabia 1.4 tdi would comfortably do an indicated 85 mpg on a run, more like 60 mpg round town and a 75 mpg average. Even then it works out about 9 pence per mile plus servicing cost at least double than EV. Fuelling costs about four times for the ICE compared to the EV.

 

Edited 18 September, 20232 yr by lol-lol

58 minutes ago, Graham Butcher said:

May be so, or there again, maybe not, time will tell. We have had decades of ICE powered cars, so it is not going to disappear just like that, as long are loads of people around who have been used to them and have grown with them will not make the transition to electric as willingly as the younger generation many of whom are used to both types of power plant. I'd give at least another 30 to 40 years for the world to begin to get around to resembling how you describe it.

 

Who knows, the world may be nothing like how either us thinks it will be then, maybe everybody will begin the actual true harm that the raw materials for EV cars will be doing to the world and may have reduced or ceased production as they discover EVs are another diesel blunder after all and the world has rapidly moved on to a completely new ideology and propulsion system. 

 

On another topic you mentioned cars, namely your diesel powered Fabia doing 70mpg and is nowhere as cheap as your Zoe EV to run, which currently is true for city driving, but may not be so in say 20 years time, when with correct servicing, the Fabia could well still on it same engine and same pistons etc but the Zoe will more than likely be on new batteries (if they are still available) etc. and the whole situation could be reversed. EV's are still a relative unknown when to their longevity status. The bearings in the electric motor will begin to wear and allow the rotor to collide with the stator and destroy itself etc, the reduction gears may have issues. All of these are possible and then the real world costs of having those issues put right may well exceed the costs of the thermostat and water pump replacement replacements cost on the Fabia, who knows?

 

Bottom line is, until these cars have been around as long as ICE cars, we don't really know just what the future holds both for the cars or the true environmental impact they will have on the world, i.e., are we actually just moving the environmental negative impact away from populated areas to vary sparsely populated area's that may yet prove to have a nasty sting in the tail for everyone, we don't honestly yet know.

 

 

That is the problem.  ICE should have died out about half a century ago.  Reciprocating engines are such an ancient tech which we should have found and implemented one of the rotary techs many decades ago.  Tip issues with Vankel's engines did sadly hold them up.  When one really thinks ago it the crazy situation of pistons, rings and the conrods reversing direction dozens of times a second is nuts.  I would watch the working of the slow speed marine engines, the most thermally efficient ICE every made and think this is nuts from a thermodynamic and engineering standpoint, what a massive waste of kinetic energy compared to rotary engines, including electric motors as well as Vankels.  Her is what you see of a Doxford marine engine, I also worked on B&W and Sulzer, all different piston configurations, all two stroke diesel with efficiency approach 50% thermal.....

Electric motors, as they are rotary and not reciprocating, undergo very little load through the bearings, unlike reciprocating engines.  My Zoe motor spins up to beyond 11k revs but I motors or batteries are not big issues, unlike the LEAF where degradation has been an issue in some issues, notably the 30 kW I recall reading but they are often fixed by locating one or more duff cells and then the are back to near full capacity.   With fast advances in energy cell density it would be great to see older battery packs being replaced with ones of 20, 30 or 40% more capacity as a relatively cheap update.    

 

Mazda still believe in Felix's alternate and brilliant move to rotary internal combustion engines but sadly it will probably die out with the rest of ICE. Video below Doxford engine vid. 

 

The beam on the top could be over a ton on the bigger versions...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

DHL already started the transition......  https://www.dhl.com/gb-en/home/press/press-archive/2023/dhl-supply-chain-introduces-uks-first-volvo-heavy-duty-electric-tractor-units.html#:~:text=Vehicles directly replace diesel models,on a range of activities.

 

In Europe it has been a year or more...   WIth tumbling battery prices, with what regen is providing, DHL in Europe, Pepsi in the US.

 

 

 

 

180 mile range max and a 540kwh battery looks like a niche market at the moment compared to a standard Volvo diesel tractor unit.

3 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

180 mile range max and a 540kwh battery looks like a niche market at the moment compared to a standard Volvo diesel tractor unit.

 

Indeed, just the first step.

 

US and Oz EV trucks seen to be further ahead.  With the year on year increase in  energy density, cicra 10% per year combined with costs of batteries falling by even greater percentages adoption should pickup pace especially with diesel prices up 10% ish in the last 3 months and outlook even worse with Saudi throttling.

 

27 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

180 mile range max and a 540kwh battery looks like a niche market at the moment compared to a standard Volvo diesel tractor unit.

 

TESLA semi is around 900 kWh apparently.

 

Australian Janus trucks are running 1240 kWh in two swappable packs each side where the belly fuel tanks usually go.

 

I am sure that UK companies will be changing drivers pay rate and driving time to suit going a 180 miles then the unit going on a charger, or the driver changing units having had the appropriate break away from the vehicle then driving again.

 

& The UK Government will have the Driving & Break, time off legislation to suit these driving times.

 

9 hour daily driving limit, 56 hours in a week. (It can be 10 hours a day but only twice in a week.)

I wouldn't bet my house on it if I were you. 

They change anything to suit them.  Licences, towing, weights etc etc.  Self drive and convoys.   Regardless of if the UK has the tech in place.   Digital broadcasting and Mobile reception UK wide will be a starter.   Truck stops / low carbon  hubs will be a starter then getting the National Grid,s owners to have it fit for purpose.    Maybe in a few decades then. 

The UK Government or the husband of one of the UK,s richest woman will not be interested in what UK,s richest mans employee has to say about a mix of technologies.

(That is Lynn Calder the CEO of Ineos Automotive.)

http://autocar.co.uk/car-news/electric-cars/ineos-automotive-ceo-ev-only-approach-will-fail

 

As it is the Tories look like they are going to water down green policies hoping that is going to win them the next general election.

Before that they are going to have to help the transport industry and the general public with the rising price of fuel that is going to have inflation going higher and higher. 

 

 

Edited 19 September, 20232 yr by toot

I heard tonight on the news that it's reported that the PM is seriously considering delaying the ban on sales of ICE cars till 2035.

48 minutes ago, Graham Butcher said:

I heard tonight on the news that it's reported that the PM is seriously considering delaying the ban on sales of ICE cars till 2035.

 

 

I am more concerned about committing to a euro 6 diesel now then finding out they move the goalposts on diesels in ulez zones when euro 7 comes into effect in July 2025?

 

 

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tips-advice/106870/what-are-euro-7-emissions-standards

 

 

The EU ban on the sale of ICE (new cars only) is 2035 it was only Boris (i think) who said we would do it by 2030

Edited 19 September, 20232 yr by Stonekeeper

I have read an article about air quality somewhere, but cannot find it now.

 

The article claimed that as more town traffic has gone electric the air quality has got worse, because the newer combustion engines where actually cleaning the air of fumes being put out by HGVs and Buses in front of them in queues. So as the cars combustion engines numbers reduced there where less to clean it up. i.e the air going in the engine was cleaner when it came out of the exhaust of a euro 6 car than when it went in if behind the hgv

 

Think it was about Glasgow's air quality.

Edited 19 September, 20232 yr by Stonekeeper

@StonekeeperWere you not supposed to get out of your cars and get on a bus. 

57 minutes ago, Stonekeeper said:

I have read an article about air quality somewhere, but cannot find it now.

 

How inconvenient.

Hmm, somehow I cannot believe that is the case, but be that as it may, I have thought that we are not being told the truth about the air quality being bad and these two articles do seem to back this up.

 

PM2.5 on the London Underground - ScienceDirect

 

 Whistleblowers-Press-Release.pdf (fairfueluk.com)

12 hours ago, J.R. said:

 

How inconvenient.

 

https://www.globalfleet.com/en/safety-environment/europe/features/newest-diesel-engines-clean-air?a=SBL09&t[0]=Energy&t[1]=Emissions&curl=1

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/03/glasgow-lez-low-emission-zone-nitrogen-dioxide-pollution/

Nice of Rishi to **** off a global business such as Ford. 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ford-uk-says-any-delay-on-government-petrol-car-ban-risks-ev-transition

This is an electric car puzzle.

 

 

The e-4orce 4x4  xtrail: Nissan claims you should see fuel economy of around 44mpg with CO2 levels from 143g/km.

 

The petrol engine exists purely as a generator and is not connected to the wheels in any way. It converts petrol into electricity, which is sent either to a small battery or directly to the electric motor, depending on how urgently it’s needed.

 

 

My 2.0 litre diesel has CO2 level of 136g/km and can return 60mpg

 

 

 

 

^^^ 

Not an electric car with a fuel tank and an ICE.

You can not have a Green Flash on the Reg Plate in the UK with one of those.     (Actually there do seem to be some around with Green Flashes with something other than a BEV. )

 

@StonekeeperIs your 2 litre diesel a 7 seater AWD and has it had WLTP & RDE2 certification ?

All kidology anyway.  but it maybe is accurate emissions figures with the Nissan under test conditions, not the cheating of the past.  After all other world regions tear them a new hole.

 

My 2016 SEAT Alhambra 2.0 TDI SCR 150 PS 6 speed DSG was 137g /km and had 7 seats but was only FWD and could do 60 mpg.

It could also not do 25 mpg if used for just a few miles a day for a week.  It was the last of the great Defeat Device cheaters, it eventually sipped AdBlue and clogged the DPF. 

 

 

 

Edited 20 September, 20232 yr by toot

32 minutes ago, @Lee said:

Nice of Rishi to **** off a global business such as Ford. 

 

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ford-uk-says-any-delay-on-government-petrol-car-ban-risks-ev-transition

Well, I always did think that in reality the 2030 date was way too ambitious, but then it was just like the blonde buffoon to make these grand gestures before the world stage without actually thinking things through, or perhaps it never really was his intention, maybe he thought it was yet another stick he could use later to pass the blame onto others, who knows.....

30 minutes ago, Stonekeeper said:

This is an electric car puzzle.

The e-4orce 4x4  xtrail: Nissan claims you should see fuel economy of around 44mpg with CO2 levels from 143g/km.

The petrol engine exists purely as a generator and is not connected to the wheels in any way. It converts petrol into electricity, which is sent either to a small battery or directly to the electric motor, depending on how urgently it’s needed.

My 2.0 litre diesel has CO2 level of 136g/km and can return 60mpg

 

The CO2 is not the main concern anymore it is the NOX and PMs............................

 

https://carfueldata.vehicle-certification-agency.gov.uk/downloads/download.aspx?rg=aug2014

Description	Transmission	Transmission type	Emissions NOx [mg/km]	THC + NOx Emissions [mg/km]	Particulates [No.] [mg/km]	Euro Standard	Booklet	VED Band
2.0 Duratorq ECO (163PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Manual	M6	144	171	0.3	5	August 2014	C
2.0 Duratorq ECOnetic (140PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Manual	M6	144	171	0.3	5	August 2014	C
2.0 Duratorq ECO (163PS) Estate (+DPF)	Manual	M6	144	171	0.3	5	August 2014	C
2.0 Duratorq ECOnetic (140PS) Estate (+DPF)	Manual	M6	144	171	0.3	5	August 2014	C
2.0 Duratorq (140PS) Estate (+DPF)	Manual	M6	154	189	0.1	5	August 2014	D
2.0 Duratorq (140PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Manual	M6	154	189	0.1	5	August 2014	D
2.0 Duratorq (163PS) Estate (+DPF)	Manual	M6	154	189	0.1	5	August 2014	D
2.0 Duratorq (163PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Manual	M6	154	189	0.1	5	August 2014	D
2.0 Duratorq ECO (163PS) Estate (+DPF)	Automatic	A6	134	176	0.3	5	August 2014	E
2.0 Duratorq ECO (163PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Automatic	A6	134	176	0.3	5	August 2014	E
2.0 Duratorq ECOnetic (140PS) Estate (+DPF)	Automatic	A6	134	176	0.3	5	August 2014	E
2.0 Duratorq ECOnetic (140PS) Saloon (+DPF)	Automatic	A6	134	176	0.3	5	August 2014	E

 

@Graham ButcherListen to the SMMT dude talking on the telly or radio.

The requirement on reducing numbers of ICE vehicles first registered in the UK still starts next year. 

So be that a build up to 2030 or 2035 it is what the manufacturers are working towards. 

 

Euro 7 Emission standards will come in and then we will know what vehicles manufacturers have to release then as far as size and price goes for ICE engines.

Edited 20 September, 20232 yr by toot

2 minutes ago, Graham Butcher said:

Well, I always did think that in reality the 2030 date was way too ambitious, but then it was just like the blonde buffoon to make these grand gestures before the world stage without actually thinking things through, or perhaps it never really was his intention, maybe he thought it was yet another stick he could use later to pass the blame onto others, who knows.....

 

If a car is not at least got a tiny bit of hybrid, like my Arkana which does not have EV mode but only coasting but still qualifies as mild hybrid, then the car is so technically old, bit of an MG3, then it does not deserve to be on the road and that bit of cost not having minimal hybrid systems will have save the buyer a bit of money out of the showroom but cost the buyer every day in fuel cost they car is used.  No brainer.