An ‘established industry’ representative and his opinions.......or should that be hopes -

https://www.autonews.com/keith-crain/electric-will-be-rude-awakening

8 hours ago, widdershins said:

Exactly!  For EV's to become mainstream they have to stop being for green geeks and start being for the EV clueless who have been brought up on the convenience and luxury of petrol and diesel.  The requirements for mass adoption are:

1.) Tesla, CCS and CHADEMO abolished in favour of one ISO standard charging socket (ok a separate socket design with higher power rating is allowed for commercial lgv's etc ).  Every petrol pump comes complete with a nozzle that fits every petrol car, so every EV Charging point should have a built in plug that fits every car.  Every car and charger should be able to talk to each other via a common standard communication protocol.

2.) All public charge points should be able to charge at over 200Kwh.  Yes, a slower, more battery friendly rate should be available by user choice, but when people are in a hurry to get to a destination they don't want to wait for weeks to charge at 20 odd Kwh.

3.) Except for deliberately designed city cars e.g. Citigo, all cars should be available with ranges of 300 miles minimum and able to charge quickly on an occasional basis if required without suffering serious detriment to the battery.  All should be fitted with the common ISO charge socket design, and be vandal resistant i.e. no little flimsy plasticky flap costing £300 as a replacement unit (plus fitting and paint matching) that must stick up like a flag, ready to be easily snapped off by passing vandals when a charger is plugged in.  The flam should be able to close over the charge plug once connected, and lock shut till charging is complete.

4.) No wacky looks or cabin decor.  Evolution not revolution.  People don't like radical change, give them what they know and are comfortable with.  Wood, chrome, and leather, not feng shuei'd vegan interiors in neon colours with paper seats made from recycled bamboo and healing crystals for control switches.

5.) For home charging, cars should be "smart", co-operating with the domestic supply to minimise the cost, e.g. sacrificially supply power to the home at peak electric price times and replenish in the middle of the night in order to minimise overall electricity costs.

6.) Cheaper vehicles.  Until the manufacturing costs comes down, the additional up front cost of a full ev versus the petrol equivalent will always make the petrol the leading contender for most people.  Some progress on battery cost per KWh is being made, but it is still a deciding factor for many at present.

 

I think some legislation and standard setting process is the only way however that this state will be reached quickly.  Without it the various parties with financial motives will all fight their own corner to the bitter end and mass adoption will take longer as a result.

1. CCS is the standard in Europe. Only new car that does not use CCS is Nissan and Tesla S and X (the Tesla are due a refresh), everything else in CCS, including the new Tesla Model 3.

2. The latest CCS stations (only 2 operational sites in UK, 1 more being built) being installed are 150-175kW, Vast majority of current stations are 50kW, recharging back to 80% in my 24kWh Leaf within 30min. I agree for bigger battery cars, we need matching charging rate. Unfortunately the infrastructure is just not getting built.

3. I'm not sure I agree with the range requirement. We need more efficient cars, carrying around a huge 90+kWh battery just for the odd few trips a year doesn't really make sense.

4. Agree, what's up with i3 and the frog eyed Leaf? The cynic in me thinks this is car manufacturer's way of pushing people back to their highly profitable ICE cars.

5. Vehicle-2-Grid/Home is something being developed, there are trails happening with this technology right now. I look forward to plugging in my car whenever I'm home and able to charge off solar panel followed by powering my house over the evening. With charge timer built-in to almost all EV's, majority of EV drivers do have economy 7 and charge off-peak.

6. Considering EV is much cheaper to run, I think we are already at breakeven point. Unfortunately most people only look at the price of vehicle and turn away. We'll be near the top of mass-market take-off curve when EV costs the same as ICE vehicles.

 

7 hours ago, widdershins said:

An interesting review of the current barriers to growing EV ownership. Time to charge from home plug, low power public chargers, broken public chargers, too far between higher power chargers.  He liked the Audi though, just not everything else.

Notice most barriers are to do with public infrastructure. Time to home charging isn't really a problem because the car is parked overnight, 12+ hours most of the time.

 

Add another thing to the barrier: fragmented charging company subscription/apps/RFID cards. Just put contactless payment on all chargers and job done, we don't want £8 a month Polar Plus, then Ecotricity EH app, Pod-point app, smoov app and multiple RFID cards.

Quote

An ‘established industry’ representative and his opinions.......or should that be hopes -

https://www.autonews.com/keith-crain/electric-will-be-rude-awakening

I think the true position will be somewhere between.  EV's are improving as an option with every year.  But mass adoption isn't going to happen overnight for many reasons.  For cars the investment in current cars, cost of EV's, range anxiety, limited models, public charging network, time to recharge, lack of somewhere suitable for a home charger, etc.  Different reasons for different people.  HGV's and LGV's will meet more resistance, I think hybrids may be around for 5-10 years before fully EV trucks become common.

 

Most probably adoption will follow the standard Bell curve.  I think mainstream EV adoption for cars will be around 5 years away and 10-15 for trucks.  It will probably take that long anyway for charging, dealers, breakdown services, and indie garages to fully adjust to EV's.

 

Edited 19 June, 20196 yr by widdershins
Quoting the post I was replying to, to avoid confusion

2 hours ago, Ryeman said:

11 minutes ago, wyx087 said:

1. CCS is the standard in Europe. Only new car that does not use CCS is Nissan and Tesla S and X (the Tesla are due a refresh), everything else in CCS, including the new Tesla Model 3.

2. The latest CCS stations (only 2 operational sites in UK, 1 more being built) being installed are 150-175kW, Vast majority of current stations are 50kW, recharging back to 80% in my 24kWh Leaf within 30min. I agree for bigger battery cars, we need matching charging rate. Unfortunately the infrastructure is just not getting built.

3. I'm not sure I agree with the range requirement. We need more efficient cars, carrying around a huge 90+kWh battery just for the odd few trips a year doesn't really make sense.

4. Agree, what's up with i3 and the frog eyed Leaf? The cynic in me thinks this is car manufacturer's way of pushing people back to their highly profitable ICE cars.

5. Vehicle-2-Grid/Home is something being developed, there are trails happening with this technology right now. I look forward to plugging in my car whenever I'm home and able to charge off solar panel followed by powering my house over the evening. With charge timer built-in to almost all EV's, majority of EV drivers do have economy 7 and charge off-peak.

6. Considering EV is much cheaper to run, I think we are already at breakeven point. Unfortunately most people only look at the price of vehicle and turn away. We'll be near the top of mass-market take-off curve when EV costs the same as ICE vehicles.

 

Notice most barriers are to do with public infrastructure. Time to home charging isn't really a problem because the car is parked overnight, 12+ hours most of the time.

 

Add another thing to the barrier: fragmented charging company subscription/apps/RFID cards. Just put contactless payment on all chargers and job done, we don't want £8 a month Polar Plus, then Ecotricity EH app, Pod-point app, smoov app and multiple RFID cards.

 

1.) I agree most new cars in europe are standardising, but my point is there should be one standard charge method for the whole world.  If I import Nissan e-Skyline I should be able to plug it in without any problem.  If I drive to another country in a car bought here I shouldn't need to research online whether I can plug it in.  Petrol cars don't need to worry about that sort of thing.  It's a simple thing to fix and has happened in other industries.

2.) The infrastructure isn't getting built yet.  It isn't that it won't get built, but just that it is lagging behind EV uptake because there isn't enough cars on the road yet that can use a 300KW charger.  Five years from now nobody will be building new 100Kw chargers let alone 50 KW

3.) From a logical POV you're probably right, most journeys could get by with a 100 mile range and a recharge en route for occasional longer ones.  But most people won't think like that.  I have two friends who won't buy an EV because of the typical range.  They look at the long journeys they need to make and discount EV's as just city cars.

 

I also agree about the contactless payment on all chargers.  It fits with my simplification and standardisation ideas.  Petrol pumps will serve anyone with a valid means of payment, why should EV owners be forced to pre-sign up to a "club" to charge their car.   What happens if you arrive at an EV charger and find you've not got the range to get to a different one but the charger you're at isn't one you're signed up to?

How quickly people forget. When petrol cars were introduced it was difficult to find filling stations and they were not that reliable. Now our expectations are higher but it will still be a gradual process to get standardization albeit a bit faster than early 1900s.

7 minutes ago, Odin1123 said:

How quickly people forget. When petrol cars were introduced it was difficult to find filling stations and they were not that reliable. Now our expectations are higher but it will still be a gradual process to get standardization albeit a bit faster than early 1900s.

......and not preceded by a man with a red flag either.

6 minutes ago, Odin1123 said:

How quickly people forget. When petrol cars were introduced it was difficult to find filling stations and they were not that reliable. Now our expectations are higher but it will still be a gradual process to get standardization albeit a bit faster than early 1900s.

 

Indeed.  As EVs become increasingly a major part of the overall percentage then petrol stations that do not have ev charging will close or have pumps with no fuel so the service to ICE cars will continue to diminish.

 

EVs that start the charging process themselves, drive themselves etc will become the norm.

Looks like some people are trying to bring the man with the red flag back. 20mph limits, then man with red flag.

8 minutes ago, Odin1123 said:

When petrol cars were introduced it was difficult to find filling stations and they were not that reliable.

Well, I'm in my late 50s, and the only time I've ever had to "go hunting" for fuel I was on the A14 between Catthorpe Interchange and Cambridge, and there had been a widespread grid failure around the road. How many people do you know who were driving 100 years ago?

Well young man, you should look up the history because those who fail to learn from history are forever condemned to repeat its mistakes.

Unit costs are fundamental to containing prices, emissions standards won’t stand still and shareholders won’t want further expenditures on a shrinking production line combined with reducing demand .

It’s all about the trend line.......but Project Fear will continue.

1 minute ago, Ryeman said:

......and not preceded by a man with a red flag either.

 

Buy the petrol from the chemist. Mind you bikes and cars were economical with there engines of a few hp.

 

At least with EVs electricity is most places with tens of millions off outlets !

17 minutes ago, Odin1123 said:

Looks like some people are trying to bring the man with the red flag back. 20mph limits, then man with red flag.

 

So you have been to Bristol ?

Grid system of alternate car and pedestrian roads I like.

1 hour ago, Ryeman said:

Unit costs are fundamental to containing prices, emissions standards won’t stand still and shareholders won’t want further expenditures on a shrinking production line combined with reducing demand .

It’s all about the trend line.......but Project Fear will continue.

Indeed.

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/06/17/porsche-predicts-american-consumers-adopt-electric-cars-column/1287505001/

I know Porsche has an interest to push EV, but their North America CEO does have a point:

Tesla has made inroads, but now I believe we are approaching a turning point. In coming years we will see more widespread adoption as volume producers including General Motors, Nissan, and VW join with premium brands like Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche to launch numerous battery-only models. As more Americans experience the instant power and sporty handling that electric cars provide, more will want this new generation of electric vehicles. 

Electronic vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. last year totaled 361,307 — a fraction of more than 17 million new cars and light trucks but an increase of 81 percent year-on-year, according to industry figures. Where does the trend line go next? Some researchers, including at the International Monetary Fund, predict EV adoption will follow the model of a century ago, when cars displaced horse carriages on American streets within 15 years.

 

First, Tesla has proven there is significant demand for cars that combine sustainability with performance and design. Last year, the Model 3 outsold any other premium sedan in the U.S. We know that American consumers embrace new technology, especially if it delivers a new experience. And once a technology catches on, consumers respond well to expanded choice as competitors enter the field. Just look at how many models of SUV you can buy today, or the proliferation of smartphones since Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007. 

2 hours ago, widdershins said:

1.) I agree most new cars in europe are standardising, but my point is there should be one standard charge method for the whole world.  If I import Nissan e-Skyline I should be able to plug it in without any problem.  If I drive to another country in a car bought here I shouldn't need to research online whether I can plug it in.  Petrol cars don't need to worry about that sort of thing.  It's a simple thing to fix and has happened in other industries.

2.) The infrastructure isn't getting built yet.  It isn't that it won't get built, but just that it is lagging behind EV uptake because there isn't enough cars on the road yet that can use a 300KW charger.  Five years from now nobody will be building new 100Kw chargers let alone 50 KW

3.) From a logical POV you're probably right, most journeys could get by with a 100 mile range and a recharge en route for occasional longer ones.  But most people won't think like that.  I have two friends who won't buy an EV because of the typical range.  They look at the long journeys they need to make and discount EV's as just city cars.

 

I also agree about the contactless payment on all chargers.  It fits with my simplification and standardisation ideas.  Petrol pumps will serve anyone with a valid means of payment, why should EV owners be forced to pre-sign up to a "club" to charge their car.   What happens if you arrive at an EV charger and find you've not got the range to get to a different one but the charger you're at isn't one you're signed up to?

While true, electricity grid differs vastly different across the world. It will be a difficult ask to standardise EV charging on over the vast different grid across the whole world. I'm sure there will be adopters you can buy in the future though, just like travel adapters  

 

For range, I think people just need to experience it to understand how it works. Unfortunately most people hears "12 hours to recharge on domestic socket" to think EV are city cars only.

My 24kWh Leaf is not suitable for long distance drive, needing to do 30min stop twice on a 150 miles drive. But I feel 35-40kWh would be enough for my needs, I'll need to stop at least once over 3 hours of drive. 50-55kWh efficient cars can pretty much guarantee 200 miles real world range (Model 3 SR+, e-208, Zoe) that's around 3 hours of motorway driving. Much longer than the amount of time I want to sit in any car. Take a 20min break and another back ~150 in the car ready to go.  (currently only possible with a Tesla due to non-existing charging network for other makes)

 

Currently, you'll have to use Zap-map in UK to find chargers and see which network it is on. There was a gov bill to allow ad-hoc charging, removing requirement for memberships. But Polar (who charges £8 a month membership) got away by simply asking £6 per session on top of outrageous unit costs. A charge with membership would cost £1, whereas a charge without membership costs £9.

Luckily TFL are part-funding chargers inside M25, all their chargers mandate contactless payments. Polar quick chargers in London charges 22p/kWh (instead of 11p for memberships), much more reasonable.

It seems Government doesn’t want to upset the establishment in America either -

https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/utility-regulated-ev-charging-setback/

4 minutes ago, wyx087 said:

While true, electricity grid differs vastly different across the world. It will be a difficult ask to standardise EV charging on over the vast different grid across the whole world. I'm sure there will be adopters you can buy in the future though, just like travel adapters  

 

For range, I think people just need to experience it to understand how it works. Unfortunately most people hears "12 hours to recharge on domestic socket" to think EV are city cars only.

My 24kWh Leaf is not suitable for long distance drive, needing to do 30min stop twice on a 150 miles drive. But I feel 35-40kWh would be enough for my needs, I'll need to stop at least once over 3 hours of drive. 50-55kWh efficient cars can pretty much guarantee 200 miles real world range (Model 3 SR+, e-208, Zoe) that's around 3 hours of motorway driving. Much longer than the amount of time I want to sit in any car. Take a 20min break and another back ~150 in the car ready to go.  (currently only possible with a Tesla due to non-existing charging network for other makes)

 

Currently, you'll have to use Zap-map in UK to find chargers and see which network it is on. There was a gov bill to allow ad-hoc charging, removing requirement for memberships. But Polar (who charges £8 a month membership) got away by simply asking £6 per session on top of outrageous unit costs. A charge with membership would cost £1, whereas a charge without membership costs £9.

Luckily TFL are part-funding chargers inside M25, all their chargers mandate contactless payments. Polar quick chargers in London charges 22p/kWh (instead of 11p for memberships), much more reasonable.

 

Source London is part of my company and I see there has been discussions on anyone with a contact less card using our chargers.  

 

It is often the grey areas with charge points that cause issues ie who stops ICE cars parking in EV bays, how do you get EVs to stop charging and let another EV charge if you have dropped your EV at the tube station and are in town for half a day or full day?

 

Needs more tech to optimise all this.

Basically, since the Second World War, we have had Australian Design Rules which have (supposedly) maintained a standard not necessarily guaranteed eg seatbelt widths and minimum emissions standards etc.

Why they can’t set charging standards for access as guidelines for importers and thus manufacturers is a question I hope the general media asks of government.

German Government is to provide €1 billion for three consortia to ensure battery supply isn’t too China dependent.

36 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

German Government is to provide €1 billion for three consortia to ensure battery supply isn’t too China dependent.

 

Ohhh a whole billion.

 

Chicken feed. 

 

UK goes that much further in to national debt every fortnight !!!!!

Just now, lol-lol said:

 

Ohhh a whole billion.

 

Chicken feed. 

 

UK goes that much further in to national debt every fortnight !!!!!

Ahhh.......proud standard setters in all fields it seems.

1 minute ago, Ryeman said:

Ahhh.......proud standard setters in all fields it seems.

 

As a percentage of GDP it is around 87% so nearly 50% over the indebted threshold of 60% regarded as bad but then lots of countries are similar or even worse.

 

UK due to waste £50B on a slightly quicker train when science points to autonomous road vehicles being the future. Also £100B on missile subs in the time of EM and particle weapons.  Go figure.

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

Source London is part of my company and I see there has been discussions on anyone with a contact less card using our chargers.  

 

It is often the grey areas with charge points that cause issues ie who stops ICE cars parking in EV bays, how do you get EVs to stop charging and let another EV charge if you have dropped your EV at the tube station and are in town for half a day or full day?

 

Needs more tech to optimise all this.

Good. I tried to use Source London twice, their web-app never made the charger work.

 

There's 2 types of charging: slow destination charging and quick en-route charging.

- For slow destination charging, I think key is to install almost every parking spot, so it would mean ICE cars and EV can park anywhere, there's always somewhere to plug-in. EV spaces not reducing ICE car spaces and ICE cars isn't blocking chargers. They work like car park, so you can drop your EV at tube station and come back to a fully charged car, no time limit.

- For quick en-route charging, they are like petrol station pumps. When you turn up, you expect no one is using it as parking spot. So I feel this is where ICE cars parked here should get tickets and you have some sort of penalties for people not moving their car after charge rate has slowed down.

 

Something like a time-based fee structure (instead of per kWh) works best, EV charges quickly below 60% but above 90% most are charging very slowly, so if people are paying per-minute, then people won't hog the chargers to get that last 2% in their cars, I've had to wait for this . Time based fee structure also have the benefit of getting people to use the correct charger for their car. You won't want 50kW Zoe hogging the very few 150kW CCS stations, the 50kW Zoe should be using the existing 50kW chargers. So per-minute, 150kW charger is 3x more expensive than 50kW charger, but if your car is capable, it would actually cost the same per unit of electricity.

 

In fact, if we have CCTV trained on time based charging spots, you won't even have to ticket ICE cars, just send them the bill for amount of time spent in the charging spot as charging station occupancy fee. Only difference is EV pay using straight forward contactless and ICE cars get the bill posted to them as PCN. It's simple to implement: if not plug in for duration of car parked there; send PCN. if contactless authorised, charge contactless when vehicle moves away.

Edited 19 June, 20196 yr by wyx087

2 hours ago, wyx087 said:

electricity grid differs vastly different across the world

Seriously? Which developed nations don't use 110-120v or 220-240v AC (or both in the case of Japan) then?

Ultimately profitability will determine exactly how long old ICE vehicles remain viable.

Refineries need high throughput to remain viable and retail outlets the same.  An ever declining demand means only one ultimate outcome.

Exxon Mobil/Chevron understands what the future looks like and the Koch Bros will certainly be active in financing Project Fear.

This must be the highest stakes game ever.