EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[Huwcymru]

Here's a quick easy way to write to your MP http://us11.campaign-archive1.com/?u=1ad0933aa8b24eabefc582bf4&id=7804d2d430&e=8f38958d62

[Ryeman]

Do 52% of electorates want to leave or just the total vote?.

Is there a breakdown for each electorate?.

[Huwcymru]

38 minutes ago, Ryeman said:

Do 52% of electorates want to leave or just the total vote?.

Is there a breakdown for each electorate?.

 

 Have a look at this https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-52-48-per-cent-voter-turnout-electoral-register-7399226

There is loads of stuff on the BBC giving breakdowns of voting but the referendum was only ever advisory,

 

[Ryeman]

8 minutes ago, Huwcymru said:

 Have a look at this https://www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-52-48-per-cent-voter-turnout-electoral-register-7399226

There is loads of stuff on the BBC giving breakdowns of voting but the referendum was only ever advisory,

 

Ah, I forgot that you don't have compulsory voting.

Assuming something on the basis of media prognostication can have unintended consequences.........pandering to either anger or fear 

Brexit wasn't going to happen 

Trump didn't have a chance 

Edited 25 January, 2017 by Ryeman

[lol-lol]

3 hours ago, Ryeman said:

Do 52% of electorates want to leave or just the total vote?.

Is there a breakdown for each electorate?.

 

It is not even 52% of the electorate as only 70% voted so it was about a third that voted LEAVE and that figure has changed as several polls in Wales have shown that country, like Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland have a majority wanting to stay in the EU so it is only England, and not the smart bit of London, (that is the only net tax/cost positive area of the UK), so the whole UK is being dragged out of the EU by English regional numpties.

Edited 25 January, 2017 by lol-lol

[domhnall]

16 hours ago, cheezemonkhai said:

Scotland also got a say in the vote and not everyone in Scotland voted to stay, in fact a large chunk voted out.

 

 

 

true 38% voted out, very large chunk, just smaller than the 62% voting the opposite way

 

 

 

[domhnall]

it's good news for other cities like Dublin, Paris etc though

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/citigroup-new-operations-away-london-brexit-eu-financial-hub

 

 

[skomaz]

50 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

It is not even 52% of the electorate as only 70% voted so it was about a third that voted LEAVE and that figure has changed as several polls in Wales have shown that country, like Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland have a majority wanting to stay in the EU so it is only England, and not the smart bit of London, (that is the only net tax/cost positive area of the UK), so the whole UK is being dragged out of the EU by English regional numpties.

 

If they can't be arsed to vote then they can't be counted so tough!

 

It's a bit like the Unions going on strike - generally only a relatively low proportion of the membership vote but they still go on strike - even if the number taken as a percentage of the full membership is well below 50%...

[kevberlin]

59 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

It is not even 52% of the electorate as only 70% voted so it was about a third that voted LEAVE and that figure has changed as several polls in Wales have shown that country, like Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland have a majority wanting to stay in the EU so it is only England, and not the smart bit of London, (that is the only net tax/cost positive area of the UK), so the whole UK is being dragged out of the EU by English regional numpties.

Thankyou for the kind stereotyping as an "English regional numptie". It sits neatly alongside the other accusations such as racist and anti European. This referendum has truly proven to be a voyage of self discovery.

[Eddie-NL]

55 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

It is not even 52% of the electorate as only 70% voted so it was about a third that voted LEAVE and that figure has changed as several polls in Wales have shown that country, like Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scotland have a majority wanting to stay in the EU so it is only England, and not the smart bit of London, (that is the only net tax/cost positive area of the UK), so the whole UK is being dragged out of the EU by English regional numpties.

You can't say that remaining 30% that chose not to vote would have voted to remain. (or leave)

If you look at the results in more depth you will see some areas were very close and some had large majority. This also applies to some places in Scotland even though no area voted leave.

 

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

 

 

 

[Eddie-NL]

You can add this to stereotypical brexit voter

 

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2016-06-30/uea-research-suggests-link-between-obesity-and-brexit-voters/

[lol-lol]

58 minutes ago, kevberlin said:

Thankyou for the kind stereotyping as an "English regional numptie". It sits neatly alongside the other accusations such as racist and anti European. This referendum has truly proven to be a voyage of self discovery.

 

Our Tri-county area of Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Worcestershire tended to be only marginally in favour of Leaving ie 55% leave/45% Remain so only marginal muppetry.  The exception, like a mini version of the national picture that the smartest/wealthiest part of the Tri-county area ie Cheltenham, voted the other way ie 55% remain and 45% leave.

 

Voting Leave, I believe, is numptish as it is, and will do much more of it, means inflation massively hitting us, continued failure to control immigration, most of which did and does not come from the EU.  What it will do is provide the UK Government, which has massively failed to balance the books in the last 7 years, a huge boost to its import taxes revenue and VAT revenue and they can blame the voters for causing it in a Pontius Pilate sort of way.

 

Check out how the regions voted.....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028 

 

[kevberlin]

5 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

Our Tri-county area of Gloucestershire/Herefordshire/Worcestershire tended to be only marginally in favour of Leaving ie 55% leave/45% Remain so only marginal muppetry.  The exception, like a mini version of the national picture that the smartest/wealthiest part of the Tri-county area ie Cheltenham, voted the other way ie 55% remain and 45% leave.

 

Voting Leave, I believe, is numptish as it is, and will do much more of it, means inflation massively hitting us, continued failure to control immigration, most of which did and does not come from the EU.  What it will do is provide the UK Government, which has massively failed to balance the books in the last 7 years, a huge boost to its import taxes revenue and VAT revenue and they can blame the voters for causing it in a Pontius Pilate sort of way.

 

Check out how the regions voted.....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028 

 

Insulting those people who do not share the same view as oneself is hardly the best way of trying to win a debate. In fact it debases the view of those casting the insults.

Your view on "Brexit" is clear, but I neither wish to be insulted or lectured thanks.

[trundlenut]

3 minutes ago, kevberlin said:

Insulting those people who do not share the same view as oneself is hardly the best way of trying to win a debate. In fact it debases the view of those casting the insults.

Your view on "Brexit" is clear, but I neither wish to be insulted or lectured thanks.

Err, have you heard anything the Brexit mob have said and the Mail/express / telegraph have said since the referendum?  Enemies of the people???

[kevberlin]

24 minutes ago, trundlenut said:

Err, have you heard anything the Brexit mob have said and the Mail/express / telegraph have said since the referendum?  Enemies of the people???

The same applies to both sides.

My point is that personal insult or "shouting down" is not reasoned debate.

 

[trundlenut]

40 minutes ago, kevberlin said:

The same applies to both sides.

My point is that personal insult or "shouting down" is not reasoned debate.

 

It's way too late for that.

 

Unfortunately shouting down seems to be the sole approach of the Brexiters. Obviously May is taking a different approach,  which is just to tell everyone to shut up. But she is being dragged away from that now.

 

You cannot question Brexit and the assertions of the Brexiters without getting a tirade of abuse and bile.  What you don't get is answers.

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, kevberlin said:

Insulting those people who do not share the same view as oneself is hardly the best way of trying to win a debate. In fact it debases the view of those casting the insults.

Your view on "Brexit" is clear, but I neither wish to be insulted or lectured thanks.

 

The debate is over it is about damage limitation.

 

It is clear that the UK government will proceed with BREXIT and it is almost certainly a hard BREXIT and we are seeing the fallout of this with inflation and a rising trade imbalance.   It is very clear that this particular vote was one of the least informed vote ever in the UK and even the UK government is being repeatedly pointed out that they do not properly understand the key issues and technicalities.  

 

I am a muppet/numpty when it comes to certain areas, probably the use of certain media platforms.  I think who ever wrote the Winnie the Pooh carton coined it best........

 

 

 

[Ootohere]

^^^^ But nothing is clear other than the current government in the UK have at some point to get on with BREXIT.

Hard, semi hard, flaccid is yet to seen. 

[lol-lol]

58 minutes ago, Offski said:

^^^^ But nothing is clear other than the current government in the UK have at some point to get on with BREXIT.

Hard, semi hard, flaccid is yet to seen. 

 

It is clear that the UK government does not understand the law about triggering BREXIT (now they do now the Supreme Court has told them).

 

It is also clear that have not understood until now how Trade Agreements are structured and agreed and how they interrelate ie the 34 we lose when we leave the EU and how trade and services are written up in them, how Trade Agreement require the management of Origin Certificates, such AS EUR1s, to prevent triangulation of direct trade tariff circumvention.  

 

The real costs of losing the EU Free Trade advantages and the new cost burdens that get re-introduced upon leaving the EU's Single Market. 

[domhnall]

5 hours ago, Eddie-NL said:

You can't say that remaining 30% that chose not to vote would have voted to remain. (or leave)

If you look at the results in more depth you will see some areas were very close and some had large majority. This also applies to some places in Scotland even though no area voted leave.

 

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information

 

 

 

 

the only part of Scotland where it was close was Moray. Two things about MOray: it has quite a large English population (and Brexit appears to have appealed to Englosh voters more than others) and it contains the bulk of our fishing industry which was promised all sorts but is now unhappy about the overtures being made by Mrs May to Spain on fishing rights. 

Every other area was comfortably Remain. As I have said throughout, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar seem not to have reacted as favourably to the promise of brexit as our neighbours.  Despite all the promises two years ago of respect and safeguarding our EU membership, the message is now STFU and do as we want you to do. ENgland knows best, the rest of you better suck it up. 

 

Coupled with the SUpreme Court exposing the GOvernment's prmises of 2015 on the Scotland Act as bare faced lies, it's going to create political (not legal) difficulties for the Tories and also Labour who are in a very difficut place. They cannot win in Scotland without being more pro European, they cannotwin in London without doing the same, but if they do that then they will be crucified by the right of centre double whammy of the tories and then UKIP even further to the right. 

 

[Eddie-NL]

16 minutes ago, domhnall said:

 

the only part of Scotland where it was close was Moray. Two things about MOray: it has quite a large English population (and Brexit appears to have appealed to Englosh voters more than others) and it contains the bulk of our fishing industry which was promised all sorts but is now unhappy about the overtures being made by Mrs May to Spain on fishing rights. 

Every other area was comfortably Remain. As I have said throughout, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar seem not to have reacted as favourably to the promise of brexit as our neighbours.  Despite all the promises two years ago of respect and safeguarding our EU membership, the message is now STFU and do as we want you to do. ENgland knows best, the rest of you better suck it up. 

 

Coupled with the SUpreme Court exposing the GOvernment's prmises of 2015 on the Scotland Act as bare faced lies, it's going to create political (not legal) difficulties for the Tories and also Labour who are in a very difficut place. They cannot win in Scotland without being more pro European, they cannotwin in London without doing the same, but if they do that then they will be crucified by the right of centre double whammy of the tories and then UKIP even further to the right. 

 

I think you could add Aberdeenshire to the list

 

like i said there are plenty of examples where it was close in the England where remain narrowly lost

 

the issue is no matter what happens, you can't please everyone

 

I want the best outcome for the UK, but worry that too much interference will make a bigger mess of it

design by committee springs to mind 

 

[Laurie61]

5 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

 

 

Voting Leave, I believe, is numptish as it is, and will do much more of it, means inflation massively hitting us, continued failure to control immigration, most of which did and does not come from the EU.  What it will do is provide the UK Government, which has massively failed to balance the books in the last 7 years, a huge boost to its import taxes revenue and VAT revenue and they can blame the voters for causing it in a Pontius Pilate sort of way.

 

 

 

Continued failure to control immigration -

 

This is a prediction not a fact, the system of immigration control is always going to be a compromise but having no control cannot be better than having some ?

 

The UK Government, which has massively failed to balance the books in the last 7 years -

 

Its not UK government that has failed to balance the books, it’s the relatively strong UK economy buying goods whilst a mostly flat lining EU had no money to buy anything, a financial position created by the euro along with other ineffective monetary policy’s.

All caused by multiple nations, with different economic requirements, failing to agree on a way out of the mess.

 

The US has an even stronger view on this and feels that the euro was designed to allow Germany a low interest rate and an artificially weak currency, which is effectively currency rigging. So there is no real incentive for Germany to sort the EU mess out.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mac11irl]

8 hours ago, domhnall said:

it's good news for other cities like Dublin, Paris etc though

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/citigroup-new-operations-away-london-brexit-eu-financial-hub

 

 

It being good or bad for Ireland seems to change on an hourly basis..

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, Laurie61 said:

 

Continued failure to control immigration -

 

This is a prediction not a fact, the system of immigration control is always going to be a compromise but having no control cannot be better than having some ?

 

The UK Government, which has massively failed to balance the books in the last 7 years -

 

Its not UK government that has failed to balance the books, it’s the relatively strong UK economy buying goods whilst a mostly flat lining EU had no money to buy anything, a financial position created by the euro along with other ineffective monetary policy’s.

All caused by multiple nations, with different economic requirements, failing to agree on a way out of the mess.

 

The US has an even stronger view on this and feels that the euro was designed to allow Germany a low interest rate and an artificially weak currency, which is effectively currency rigging. So there is no real incentive for Germany to sort the EU mess out.  

 

 

Immigration was promised by the Cons to be brought under control to "tens of thousands per year" whereas the facts are that non-EU immigration (the one they have total control of) has been about one million since 2010.  EU immigration is the smaller component of total migration.  Being an ex Frontier Officer I have heard nothing from my ex-UKBA and Customs Officer colleagues of any preparation to improve the leaky UK borders.

 

George Osborne said he would balance the books by 2015 but in reality the UK still went another £72B in to debt last year and the UK National debt has doubled from £0.85B in 2010 to £1.7 trillion in 2017.

 

In both these areas the economic competency and ability to manage the UK borders (concerning non-EU migrants were they have supposedly had control) have been proved to be massive failures.  No plan from a laissez-faire government.  Ironically BREXIT can help with both these issues with the UK government being able to collect lots more taxes on imports and VAT via inflation as they translate as much more expensive due to the weak UK currency.  Also the UK become a much less attractive place for foreign workers to work as the money the would earn converts as well to their home country's currency.  

[@Lee]

15 hours ago, Huwcymru said:

Here's a quick easy way to write to your MP http://us11.campaign-archive1.com/?u=1ad0933aa8b24eabefc582bf4&id=7804d2d430&e=8f38958d62

Probably the best letter I've seen sent to an MP Re Brexit 

Dear, [             ],

I am sure you are aware of the responsibilities you have taken on that come with being an elected MP. If you vote in favour of triggering Article 50 now, you MUST have assurances it is reversible once more clarity emerges. For example, here are some questions to consider which will affect many (if not all) individuals in your constituency and in the entire country:

• How can we explain losing freedoms to live, work, study or buy a business, in 27 of our nearest neighbours as a benefit to our children and grandchildren? Being able to ‘taste the waters’ close to home without having to commit to lengthy bureaucracy and regulations is a unique opportunity to encourage social mobility, especially for the less advantaged and less confident. It deeply saddens me that these opportunities have not been promoted more widespread across the British society (even at University level).

• How many families will be split, when children, spouses, partners, loved ones or parents born abroad are unable to stay on socially secured terms?

• It is not clear why neglected and over-crowded services are still blamed on 'migrants' when current evidence confirms this is largely due to austerity cuts, privatisation, out-sourcing and PFI.

• What are the benefits of suddenly focusing on cutting immigration at all cost? It is clear that the UK government has not used most of the tools allowing managing free movement that already existed whilst being member of the EU. It is also clear that societal structure and skill-base cannot be changed overnight (eg it takes at least 5 years to train a doctor to first qualification, and who is going to train them if we lose significant numbers of EU-born NHS staff?).

• Will the latest life-saving treatments be developed and become available in an ageing Britain, when the European Medicines Agency leaves and when EU research funding and efficient networking opportunities will be cut off?

• What will happen to half a million British pensioners in Spain, France, Portugal etc, where will they live and who will care for them, if they return.

• How can leaving a free market of 500 Million people on our doorstep possibly improve British livelihoods?

• Realistically, how long will it take for Britain to negotiate new trade deals when we lose relationships with 63 countries offered through the EU - when we have few experienced expert staff? Which inevitable trade-offs will be considered acceptable to achieve these new deals? What is the risk of multiplication of production lines to comply with varying standards required to fulfill such multiple trade agreements?

• Who will pay for the work of 45 EU agencies we will have to duplicate?

• How would services and pensions be paid for in a low-tax model if the UK became a tax haven as the Chancellor has hinted? Taking much smaller and less diverse entities such as Singapore as example raises more questions than answers.

• What are the implications of leaving the Customs Union, not just for business but for each individual resident, especially at a time when shopping online is on the rise?

• Will the UK continue to benefit from security and intelligence cooperation with EU partners, or be able to take advantage of the European Arrest Warrant to optimise our security?

• How will the government replace farming subsidies, ensure viability of Britain’s agriculture and which environmental trade-offs will this bring?

• What will happen to the border in Northern Ireland?

This is not a comprehensive list of questions to be resolved. It is meant to provide a gist of the multitude of levels at which life in Britain will be affected. I am not convinced that the majority of the population has a comprehensive understanding of the conundrums involved in leaving the EU (and I happily include myself into this category). I am glad that we live in a parliamentary democracy where we have elected well-trained representatives debating the best way forward. However, such a debate only makes sense if opinions can be changed after careful analysis of all options and their repercussions. A debate after Britain has been set on the path of leaving the EU (if Article 50 is irrevocable) already restricts following the best possible options for a prosperous Britain which could work better for everyone.