Ukraine - war ? UK only economic sanctions or military action too ? Is the Ukraine issue simple or complex ?

[lol-lol]

Live and Let Live

 

[skomaz]

10 hours ago, @Lee said:

Like I said I say things as I see them. As a self described straight talking Yorkshireman I thought you'd appreciate that. 

 

Straight talking is fine...   Except when it's talking blinkered *******s or is factually incorrect. 👍

[KenONeill]

11 hours ago, @Lee said:

I haven't been in Germany since 2016. You're about three years out.

And yet your information reads "Location :Nord Deutschland".

[xman]

22 minutes ago, KenONeill said:

And yet your information reads "Location :Nord Deutschland".

I think its a village near Paris, near the Lancashire border.
 

 

[john999boy]

Maybe time to focus a bit more on the subject now!

[@Lee]

13 hours ago, KenONeill said:

And yet your information reads "Location :Nord Deutschland".

To answer, I've been here since very late 2018 so as I said, I haven't been in Germany since 2016

[lol-lol]

Ukraine suffering with their stock market faltering......

http://www.ux.ua/#

Down about 10% since the end of 2021 and lending rate now over 12% so Ukraine is suffering more than any country.

Apparently two thirds of Germans support the switching on of the Nordstream 2 pipeline to provide cheaper and green gas energy to the European market.

 

Looks like things kicking off in the Donbass Republics area of the "current" Ukraine.

 

Russian speaking, first and second generation and either evacuating or preparing to fight the Ukrainian militia including the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, who use a version of the swastika  and are based in the Black Sea (not Baltic Sea Liz Truss) town of Mariupol. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

 

Looks like we have strongish indications of where the conflict may kick off, one could see a push all the way to the Dnieper river giving Russian a second corridor to the Crimea island.  Business still hedging that it is less likely than likely of a Russian territory grab of more Ukrainian land under the reasoning of protecting Russian speaking and people living east of the Dnieper.   

 

[Ootohere]

It is all very sad just how many will die and it is not like some TV Series to be looked at as some form of entertainment with people looking for the next instalment.

 

People will lose lives and loved ones, limbs, homes and everything and that will not be World Leaders safely at home watching it happening.

Putin will be no place near and neither will be Biden and it a certainty that Boris Johnson will be well away from any fighting or risk of any ambush other than by cake. 

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the only countries leader that might well be killed in armed conflict anytime soon. 

Edited 19 February, 2022 by roottoot

[xman]

10 minutes ago, roottoot said:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the only countries leader that might well be killed in armed conflict anytime soon. 

 

Ironically it may even be with a german weapon.

 

https://www.thelocal.de/20140423/germany-arms-russia-ukraine-war/

 

At least Germany will rest easy knowing they sent Ukraine 5000 helmets as a defensive measure.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-offers-ukraine-helmets-draws-kyiv-mayors-ire-2022-01-26/

[@Lee]

IIRC @xman people were warned about tit-for-tat posting in threads. @john999boycould probably clear that up. 
I only mention it as you've dug up an article about German arms sales to Russia from 2014! I think someone also mentioned digging up old articles as well. Maybe take Ben Wallace's advice and 'don't sit in judgement over other countries'. 

Anyway, people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. For context, here's an article also from 2014 and also from a German online publication;
 

Quote

British Prime Minister David Cameron was among the strongest advocates of an EU arms embargo against Russia on Tuesday, but woke on Wednesday to criticism of his own government's existing military deals with Moscow.

More than 200 licenses issued for planned UK weapons exports to Russia remain valid, worth a minimum of 132 million pounds (166 million euros, $225 million). A cross-party parliamentary enquiry in London, releasing its findings on Wednesday, said the licenses covered equipment for launching and controlling missiles, components for military helicopters, small arms ammunition, sniper rifles, body armor and military communications equipment.

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-criticizes-arms-exports-to-russia-then-confirms-its-own/a-17801315

Back on topic and over the past few days it seems to me there's been information and disinformation coming from all sides so it's becoming very blurry and difficult to know what's what at the moment. Tough words spoken by Biden and Johnson as well but whether Putin gives a toss what anyone has to say is difficult to judge. Also I've seen mention of false flags coming from Russia.  

 

Alexander Boris DePfeffell Johnson was in Munich today and I had to have a little belly laugh after reading that he said 'but we also have to be unflinchingly honest about the situation today'! Johnson being 'Unflinchingly honest'?! Isn't he under police investigation for lying about parties?
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-speech-at-the-munich-security-conference-19-february-2022

Now it seems Putin has  launched exercises by Russia's strategic nuclear missile forces. To what end who knows. More posturing or willy waving? 
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-oversee-nuclear-drills-ukraine-crisis-mounts-2022-02-19/

All I know is it's very difficult at the moment to dissect the truth from the lies and bluffs. 

[xman]

Obviously guns bought in 2014 won't be used today, silly me.

 

Keep up your Boris Bashing Lee, you sound more and more ridiculous every time you post your diatribes. Lockdown parties are after all much more serious than weapons

 

Despite the disgusting trade in weapons by all involved, at least the UK is not refusing help to Ukraine on their requests.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012

Edited 19 February, 2022 by xman

[@Lee]

16 minutes ago, xman said:

Obviously guns bought in 2014 won't be used today, silly me.

 

Keep up your Boris Bashing Lee, you sound more and more ridiculous every time you post your diatribes. Lockdown parties are after all much more serious than weapons

 

Despite the disgusting trade in weapons by all involved, at least the UK is not refusing help to Ukraine on their requests.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012

Sending arms isn't the only way to help the people of Ukraine as I'm sure you're aware.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-ukraine-trade-and-aid-but-no-weapons/a-60816274

Did Ukraine ask for helmets? According to this from the Ukraine news agency they did.
 

Quote

"But we consider every request, because we are standing side by side with you and your citizens. That is why, when you asked for helmets, we were looking at how many helmets we could deliver, I am sorry it was only 5,000 of them. Now we have there's a new list, we are looking at the new list, what we have, what we can do," Baerbock said.

https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/799523.html

Edited 19 February, 2022 by @Lee

[lol-lol]

2 hours ago, roottoot said:

It is all very sad just how many will die and it is not like some TV Series to be looked at as some form of entertainment with people looking for the next instalment.

People will lose lives and loved ones, limbs, homes and everything and that will not be World Leaders safely at home watching it happening.

Putin will be no place near and neither will be Biden and it a certainty that Boris Johnson will be well away from any fighting or risk of any ambush other than by cake. 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the only countries leader that might well be killed in armed conflict anytime soon. 

 

At least VZ believes in comedy and now he got what he wanted and got elected he is finding out that he is expected to give one sided 

statements that please the Ukrainian people and get as much support as possible from Europe and the USA and walk the tightrope of 

international politics with the supersized neighbour who influences millions of people inside his country and can switch off their heating and a big chunk of their money earning pipeline in minutes if Russia wishes.   Who would be president ?

 

With both Boris and Sleepy Joe's ratings doing so badly in their home politics the international area provides a dangerous arena for them to talk tough at the expense of Europe's economic future without enough gas for domestic or industrial uses required and provide a convenient excuse for high energy costs, inflation and a host of other ills but at least BoJo and Sleepy are looking stately in this area rather than the ugly home ones.

 

Escalated conflict in the Donbas's Donetsk and Luhansk regions between Russian and Ukrainian allegiances seems to be looking highly probably and Russian, as we have seen before, will ensure enough volumes of high grade kit is supplied to the Russian allegiance peoples of this area.  At some point the Ukrainian gas pipeline will get switched off and the Ukrainians may have to look to going down the coal miles again.  There seems little The West can do to Putin.

 

 

[Ootohere]

Not a top news story in the UK anymore, 

a Ladies Curling team got a Gold Medal then a 95 year old lady tested positive for Covid 19 and has mild symptoms something like a winter cold. 

 

So lots of worry among Military circles as they have lots planned this year as it is 70 years sine the lady became Queen.  

At least the gun carriages are always shining and the horses ready for what ever duties they might be called upon to do. 

[Ootohere]

Boris, Liz, Ben and others in the UK seem to me to be like schoolchildren when there is a chance of a fight in the playground who stand shouting fight fight fight. 

They really look like they want to get things started while other leaders keep talking about more talks. 

[xman]

23 minutes ago, roottoot said:

They really look like they want to get things started while other leaders keep talking about more talks. 

 

Perhaps they are privvy to lots of information from our intelligence services who probably know a lot more about what Putin and others are playing at than any of us.

 

GCHQ, Five eyes, MI6 and all that.

 

 

[Ootohere]

Maybe they are. 

Maybe they like telling everyone how much they are in the loop.   The little fish in the big pond, the nuclear superpower. 

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, roottoot said:

Boris, Liz, Ben and others in the UK seem to me to be like schoolchildren when there is a chance of a fight in the playground who stand shouting fight fight fight. 

They really look like they want to get things started while other leaders keep talking about more talks. 

It's theatre for the gullible. Alexander 'Boris' DePfeffel Johnson wants to appear Chuchillian when in reality he's like the dog who goes 'Ohhhh yes'.

Russian disinformation's getting like parody now. Does anyone seriously believe this hut among a few trees is a border checkpoint that was 'hit by a projectile from Ukraine'? Looks more like someone inside left a Clipper lighter to close to the camping stove  
 

 

Edited 21 February, 2022 by @Lee

[xman]

Ben Wallace updated the House of Commons today

 

THE Russian military has been moving to locations from which it could potentially launch an invasion of Ukraine “contrary to Kremlin assurances”, the UK Defence Secretary has said.

 

Full report here

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19940979.ben-wallace-says-russian-military-moved-locations-potentially-invade-ukraine/

 

Putin is said to be considering recognising Ukrainian seperatist regions as independent states 

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/national/19940413.putin-considers-recognising-independence-separatist-areas-ukraine/

 

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, xman said:

 

Perhaps they are privvy to lots of information from our intelligence services who probably know a lot more about what Putin and others are playing at than any of us.

GCHQ, Five eyes, MI6 and all that.

 

And perhaps they have very little and are getting egged on by lots of military analyst specialist who have vested interest in both perpetuating the war mongering agenda.

 

Russia will do what it thinks is right to protect the millions of ethnic Russian in the East of Ukraine.

If Ukraine does continue to nag the west to act as its bigger brother in the playground then Russia will not only make safe its people in Eastern Ukraine but also switch off the gas for industry and heating of homes to Eastern Europe and Central Europe can sit on its hand until it decides to use the Nordstream 2 pipeline, funded by Shell as well as Gasprom.

 

The last thing this conflict needs is ignorant UK politician spoiling for a fight to divert attention from their desperate failings of economic policy in their home country.  Worked with the Falklands perhaps it will work with Ukraine but this time they are dealing with an superpower and not a failing south American state.

 

The many occasions I have worked with UK military I am invariably concluded that these people are best kept away from anything important.  Previous UK military conflicts have only started to head in the right direction when regular servicemen are replaced by recruits from civvy street.  In World War three perhaps it will all be over before we have time to think or before we even know it has started sadly.

 

[Ootohere]

Ben Wallace said it all when he said today

"I'm a soldier, i was always taught the best part of defence is offence."     

Just warmongers , the ones that were Lions lead by Donkeys and now are donkeys themselves.

 

Those old soldiers like him and Sir Iain Duncan Smith' 

should pack up their troubles in their old kit bags and smile smile. and get on off out there and save the free world. 

Edited 21 February, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

3 hours ago, xman said:

Ben Wallace updated the House of Commons today

 

THE Russian military has been moving to locations from which it could potentially launch an invasion of Ukraine “contrary to Kremlin assurances”, the UK Defence Secretary has said.

 

Full report here

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19940979.ben-wallace-says-russian-military-moved-locations-potentially-invade-ukraine/

 

Putin is said to be considering recognising Ukrainian seperatist regions as independent states 

 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/national/19940413.putin-considers-recognising-independence-separatist-areas-ukraine/

 

 

Not the sharpest tool in the box...   

Ukraine has a land border of 7,000 kms, mostly with Belarus and Russia.  

150,000 Russian troops would do well to capture and hold one or two regions and clearly they would aim to secure those areas with the majority ethnic Russian in of the very East where the pot shots are being traded between Ukrainian militia and Russian backed militia.   Russia effectively controls the Azov Sea despite the 10% coastal strip Ukraine claims.

Any bigger ambition for Russia to take all of Ukraine 600,000 sq kms, one Russian troop per 4 sq kms ie 2 sq miles, not reallistic even with the all the ethnic Russian support living in Ukraine.  Donbas and Zaporizhia along the Azov coast more like their total ambition.  

https://warsawinstitute.org/russias-strategic-considerations-sea-azov/

 

Edited 21 February, 2022 by john999boy
OT Tweet removed

[lol-lol]

12 minutes ago, roottoot said:

Ben Wallace said it all when he said today  "I'm a soldier, i was always taught the best part of defence is offence."     

Just warmongers , the ones that were Lions lead by Donkeys and now are donkeys themselves.  Those old soldiers like him and Sir Iain Duncan Smith'   should pack up their troubles in their old kit bags and smile smile. and get on off out there and save the free world. 

 

Quote from Sun Tsu and more recently Field Marshall Model I seem to recall.  Model also had an interesting history in Russia, Kursk etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Model

 

Stats do not actually support this as attackers tend to lose at least twice as many troops if similarly armed.  "They were expendable" is not a phrase I agree with having nephews in the UK military.

 

[xman]

Looks like Mr Putin has made his mind up and thrown the Minsk protocol in the bin.

 

Vladimir Putin has paved the way for an invasion of Ukraine after the Kremlin announced that the Russian President will recognise the breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine as independent. 

In a statement, the Kremlin said that Mr Putin had informed both Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron of his decision in phone calls with the German Chancellor and French President, adding that both leaders had "expressed disappointment" over the move.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/02/21/ukraine-russia-invasion-news-latest-putin-biden-war-updates/

[Ootohere]

There has never been doubt that Putin will do what Putin wants to do.

 

But the UK is not sending in Peace Makers, and neither is NATO or the UN. 

All that they are doing is protecting NATO partners if even that when push comes to shove.