Might we see Power/Gas cuts this Winter?

[cheezemonkhai]

It's bonkers.... The whole damn thing.

I said somewhere on the forum, I actually agree with NS, because you can't keep esentially feeding a funnel of public money to private and it's time to look at some of this mess.

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, cheezemonkhai said:

It's bonkers.... The whole damn thing.

I said somewhere on the forum, I actually agree with NS, because you can't keep esentially feeding a funnel of public money to private and it's time to look at some of this mess.

 

If half our gas comes from the North Sea should we be paying a massively increased "world price" on that gas or pay the North Sea gas companies just a corking/opening fee and keep prices low.  I suspect this is what Norway does with its gas and electricity that the companies involved earn enough to do OK but do not milk the citizens of the state where the gas has come from within its borders.

 

Quite surprised that Amazon and others are not sold out of battery storage and solar generators as it is so much cheaper getting ones electricity at the cheap night time rate and using it for the fridge etc during the day.  Such devices seem to pay for themselves in months, or will be doing in next months/years tariffs.  Sometime got to spend a bit to push the bills down. So in addition to storing and using power they can keep one going ie fridge and lights, thru the blackouts.  My past favourite, the Bluetti EB180, which I have one of and ones I am watching are the ALLPOWERS S2000 PRO or the Delta Pro Max 2, kWh and hoping for some bank holiday discount deal maybe as preparation for the winter of discontent (2022 edition).  

 

I also heard that our beloved Octopus supplier is joining in a scheme where it can email, or send to power control devices, for some of it users to suspend some electrical operations, like washing machine and tumbling, during very high peak demand so the user postpones until outside the spike and Octopus will pass on some money ie 20p per kWh or the like.

 

Edited 22 August, 2022 by lol-lol

[Ootohere]

Standard Electric tariff now around 27-45 pence a kWh, and when Octopus was trialling offpeak use they were maybe giving 20 pence a kWh to use electric.

 

So what is this £6 per kWH saved stuff being reported in papers and radio and TV.

http://www.metro.co.uk/2022/08/21/energy-crisis-people-to-be-paid-to-reduce-energy-use-at-peak-times-17220391

 

I missed a call from Cardiff & this was from Eon Next.  Likely trying to arrange my Smart Meter installation which they say i agreed to.

 

I damn well will agree to it and then continue using as little energy as i am now. 

 

Will the Government or just the National Grid stop providing energy to Public EV chargers at peak times during the Winter Crisis that is not going to happen?

[Ootohere]

Half our gas from the North Sea goes straight off abroad because of no storage and then the Gas is Imported to the UK from around the world and much of that goes off abroad.

We export gas and then buy in electricity produced from gas. 

 

Even out of the EU the British Isles or just the UK is still a Land Bridge for the EU / Continental Europe. 

UK Imports and exports to Ireland but also to further afield.

Now the NLG is coming in then going back out.

 

Not only has the UK ramped up getting gas out from under the sea, it can ramp it up even more.

It is said that the SNP / Greens are blocking this happening, no way are they. 

 

 

Trends in UK imports and exports of fuels - Office for National Statistics.mhtml

Edited 22 August, 2022 by roottoot

[lol-lol]

Does the UK government even know how much electrical equipment is installed in UK houses that could get switched on ?

 

I drive down my avenue / street and it looks like an increasing number of houses have EV charging stations on their drives.  Some, like me, may have taken measures to have both electricity and gas tech to heat the house, heat the water and choose which fuel to use more so than they did a year or so ago so that they can be flexible in which fuel they use depending on the price.  This could lead to houses using several kWs more of one or other energy source which could deplete or overload that supply network in colder weather leading to a blackout which I do not think the UK government has done the maths on what a peak demand might be. 

 

Liz Truss has promised no blackouts but is it in her powers to do so and if she is subsidising it surely that makes it more like if people are less frugal with these marginal resources  ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/31/liz-truss-rules-out-energy-rationing-this-winter-at-final-tory-hustings

 

Liz Truss rules out energy rationing this winter at final Tory hustings

Frontrunner for PM rejected the proposal, along with further windfall tax to pay for cost of living support for struggling families.  The Conservative leadership frontrunner Liz Truss has ruled out energy rationing this winter as she clashed over the cost of living crisis with her rival, Rishi Sunak.  The foreign secretary rejected the proposal at the final Tory hustings, despite it being a key fall-back measure in the government’s “worst case” contingency planning.  However, Sunak said “we shouldn’t rule anything out” after the French government warned it may have to ration energy, urging company bosses to take steps to curb consumption.

Edited 7 September, 2022 by lol-lol

[@Lee]

46 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

Does the UK government even know how much electrical equipment is installed in UK houses that could get switched on ?

 

I drive down my avenue / street and it looks like an increasing number of houses have EV charging stations on their drives.  Some, like me, may have taken measures to have both electricity and gas tech to heat the house, heat the water and choose which fuel to use more so than they did a year or so ago so that they can be flexible in which fuel they use depending on the price.  This could lead to houses using several kWs more of one or other energy source which could deplete or overload that supply network in colder weather leading to a blackout which I do not think the UK government has done the maths on what a peak demand might be. 

 

Liz Truss has promised no blackouts but is it in her powers to do so and if she is subsidising it surely that makes it more like if people are less frugal with these marginal resources  ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/31/liz-truss-rules-out-energy-rationing-this-winter-at-final-tory-hustings

 

Liz Truss rules out energy rationing this winter at final Tory hustings

Frontrunner for PM rejected the proposal, along with further windfall tax to pay for cost of living support for struggling families.  The Conservative leadership frontrunner Liz Truss has ruled out energy rationing this winter as she clashed over the cost of living crisis with her rival, Rishi Sunak.  The foreign secretary rejected the proposal at the final Tory hustings, despite it being a key fall-back measure in the government’s “worst case” contingency planning.  However, Sunak said “we shouldn’t rule anything out” after the French government warned it may have to ration energy, urging company bosses to take steps to curb consumption.

No, it's not in her powers to promise no blackouts. This has been made clear by various people in the know. 

 

Don't ask for links on this, I haven't saved them but it's easy enough to search 

[J.R.]

If the smart meters are the same as those in France and I believe the rest of Europe then absolutely yes she can say with certainty that there will be no power cuts, why do you think they spent gazillions on installing them across the whole network?

 

What percentage of UK homes have smart meters?

 

The first step would be a limited brown out (I think thats the term) where the supply voltage is reduced to the minimum tolerance limit, then the government will pay the big industrial consumers like aluminium smelters to shut down, then they will reduce the tripping threshold, the maximum load drawn from the Smart meters, this can be done remotely by a click of a computer mouse.

 

That is what will be happening in France if they cannot get the nuclear power stations back on line but all the media and politicians still speak of power cuts if people dont reduce their consumption, its a good soundbite and has far more effect than saying "we might have to limit your power to 3kw or even 1kw".

[lol-lol]

26 minutes ago, J.R. said:

If the smart meters are the same as those in France and I believe the rest of Europe then absolutely yes she can say with certainty that there will be no power cuts, why do you think they spent gazillions on installing them across the whole network?

 

What percentage of UK homes have smart meters?

 

The first step would be a limited brown out (I think thats the term) where the supply voltage is reduced to the minimum tolerance limit, then the government will pay the big industrial consumers like aluminium smelters to shut down, then they will reduce the tripping threshold, the maximum load drawn from the Smart meters, this can be done remotely by a click of a computer mouse.

 

That is what will be happening in France if they cannot get the nuclear power stations back on line but all the media and politicians still speak of power cuts if people dont reduce their consumption, its a good soundbite and has far more effect than saying "we might have to limit your power to 3kw or even 1kw".

 

OMG.

That will be a Draconian move that will really underline the lack of planning a decent safety margin in electrical generation which has been warned about for many years now that the UK, just like with gas storage reserves ie UK on 4 or 5 days, other European counties measured in months.

 

Be interesting if I, and others, get throttled at the after midnight to 0430 am area as that was my whole premise to move over to the Octopus GO tariff to charge the EV during that cheap night time rate but I use that period to charge up my banks of batteries so I use mostly stored power during the following day time.

 

We had all sorts of systems to do this on board merchant ships, preference trips to take out items of secondary importance, which included some of the engine room ventilation fans at then the engine room would go from say 100F to 120-125F, nice.

 

Just under half not on smart meters yet, they could be the lucky ones !

 

[cheezemonkhai]

I imagine throttling would be at peak times and industry would be given a cut off time period and a when you can work time period.

[skomaz]

8 hours ago, lol-lol said:

Does the UK government even know how much electrical equipment is installed in UK houses that could get switched on ?

 

 

No of course not - and why should they?  They'll be looking at the overall picture and simply need to know what the overall general usage by area is plus a factor for additional load vs generating capacity. 

 

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

OMG.

That will be a Draconian move that will really underline the lack of planning a decent safety margin in electrical generation which has been warned about for many years now that the UK, just like with gas storage reserves ie UK on 4 or 5 days, other European counties measured in months.

 

 

Not at all - it's a perfectly sensible approach to a situation whereby limited power is available - ie selective reduction of provision / switching off of certain non-essentials where possible etc.  It's exactly the same thing your car would do with a failing battery / alternator so it can keep going as long as possible - it's standard practice across various supply industries where the cost of 'over providing just in case' is huge.

 

As an aside to this I'm involved in a huge project for a distribution network that involves bringing in electricity supplies from offshore wind generation and distributing it across a large swathe of the UK.  It has, over it's development, come up against a huge amount of opposition, largely associated with aesthetics and NIMBYism.  I'd be interested to see how / whether that level of opposition changes over the coming weeks / months as those who have objected to it come to realise it's benefits!

[PetrolDave]

8 hours ago, cheezemonkhai said:

I imagine throttling would be at peak times and industry would be given a cut off time period and a when you can work time period.

Sounds similar to the 3 day week in the 1970's when we all had a published schedule when businesses had to close, and power would be cutoff to homes.

[Ootohere]

The Good Old Days.

Loved not going to School,  power cuts, fuel rationing, then bus strikes.  

Thank goodness there was someone at School we could become friends with that lived on a farm with a wind turbine and we could go to and play 'Risk' and make 'Cheese Dreams'. 

[lol-lol]

43 minutes ago, PetrolDave said:

Sounds similar to the 3 day week in the 1970's when we all had a published schedule when businesses had to close, and power would be cutoff to homes.

 

Little spreadsheets that came through the door and left us wondering how a non caring government and a workforce not being listened to and no one able to find a Third Way so we all got a fair share of this country's rich resources and considerable talents and all we need is some faith in a fair society to move forward at a real pace if we would only see we were working for the common good rather individual empire building. 

 

[@Lee]

10 hours ago, skomaz said:

 I'd be interested to see how / whether that level of opposition changes over the coming weeks / months as those who have objected to it come to realise it's benefits!

If this article is correct it has 

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/442510/overwhelming-support-in-uk-for-building-wind-farms-to-tackle-energy-crisis-polling-shows/

 

And from April

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/10/three-quarters-of-britons-back-expansion-of-wind-power-poll-reveals

 

 

 

[skomaz]

8 minutes ago, @Lee said:

If this article is correct it has 

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/442510/overwhelming-support-in-uk-for-building-wind-farms-to-tackle-energy-crisis-polling-shows/

 

And from April

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/10/three-quarters-of-britons-back-expansion-of-wind-power-poll-reveals

 

 

 

 

Well that's very interesting...   We'll have to keep an eye on whether the scheme remains in the proverbial back yard of the 20% that don't support renewables 

[KenONeill]

11 hours ago, cheezemonkhai said:

industry would be given a cut off time period and a when you can work time period.

Have you ever had notification of a "triad event" at work? This is how power generators presently try to control corporate power usage at peak times, by charging more during these events.

[J.R.]

If the percentage of smart meters is only 50% then my hypothesis wont happen.

 

In France a mixture of lies, cajoling, intimidation and often simply breaking in and replacing meters has resulted in a 99.9% uptake.

[Breezy_Pete]

We had a power cut for a little while last night. I was out at the time though.  Blaming Truss, but...

 

...it's not uncommon where I am, so possibly not entirely her fault. 😁

 

 

 

[Ootohere]

So Germany importing lots of coal, and LNG as and where or from where they can. Talking about not closing down the 2 of the 3 nuclear power stations that were due to this year.    I only heard this while sleeping and with World Service on the radio.    Maybe accurate or I was dreaming.     Up creak sh|π without really planning properly for the future seems to have been common among the wealthiest countries that preferred to spend on nonsense rather than the basics a country require. 

[cheezemonkhai]

This might hold out some hope. (Note the use of might as it depeonds on outcome of any reports)

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62832029

 

[Ootohere]

This mornings 'Wake up to money' on Five Live were on the farm with the boss of a large family owned ice cream maker.

 

They have invested in lots of new machinery and walk in fridges and stuff that they have spent hundreds of thousands on because more efficient.

They have limited roof space for Solar so will need planning approved for more on the ground.

(and for wind turbines..)

 

They have a generator on site they could start using since the diesel price is so much lower than electricity for commercial use. 

30 pence a kWh of electric at the current diesel price.

http://bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001brns

 

the UK paid lots of money to those putting in Diesel Farms just a few years back and probably ever since to have them on stand-by. 

http://petro-online.com/news/analytical-instrumentation/11/breaking-news/are-diesel-farms-a-disaster-for-the-uk/40832

 

Edited 8 September, 2022 by roottoot

[J.R.]

8 minutes ago, roottoot said:

They have a generator on site they could start using since the diesel price is so much lower than electricity for commercial use. 

 

Something aint right when it gets to that point.

[Ootohere]

Something was not right at the Open Golf at St Andrews this year when the Mercedes Luxury EV Minibuses doing transfers to the airports etc were being charged using diesel generators in St Andrews. 

 

Same thing happened in Glasgow at the Cop 26.

 

Running on HVO though and not diesel so that is OK then.  Just a food shortage around the world even last year, no diesel shortage. 

 

I know it as WVO.  Waste vegetable oil.  Bio.

http://thecourier.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/2650638/anger-as-generators-moved-across-scotland-to-power-electric-vehicles-carrying-vips-to-cop26

 

 

Edited 8 September, 2022 by roottoot

[@Lee]

A friend in London has reported a power cut.

It's probably nothing.

[lol-lol]

6 hours ago, @Lee said:

A friend in London has reported a power cut.

It's probably nothing.

 

One happened to my sister in a pub in Dartmoor after they had had their meal but before they had paid for it.

They did leave a phone number they could be contact at to pay for the meal later.

We live in a very power dependant world with lots that goes wrong when the power goes down.

 

My gas fire in my living room has broken and I have not fixed it but if the lecky goes off the central heating will go down so I will only have my gas hobs, the oven is lecky, to keep warm.

(Plus my 5 solar generator batteries.  Must get a one of those 1,000 tea might deals for the blackouts.